基于格网的GCM数据修订分析未来海南岛农业水热资源的变化特征

以海南岛为研究区域，选用5个大气环流模式（GCMs）1970−1999年的逐日输出数据和同期地面气象观测数据，使用空间插值降尺度到0.5°×0.5°格网。以格网单元为基础，应用系统误差修订（修正值法或比值法）和多模式集合平均方法（贝叶斯模型平均法BMA或等权重平均法EW），训练与验证GCMs输出值并进行综合修订。在此基础上，分析RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，未来海南岛近期（2020−2059年）和远期（2060−2099年）农业水热资源，包括年平均气温、1月平均气温、≥10℃积温、≥20℃积温、年降水量、1月降水量和≥20℃界限温度生长期间降水量的变化特征。结果表明：GCMs输出值的系统误差和BMA权重系数在格网间存在较大的空间差异，且GCMs输出值低估逐日最高气温约3.55℃，高估逐日最低气温约1.19℃，逐日降水量仅为观测值的54.35%。基于格网的综合修订，可有效降低GCMs输出值在空间上的不确定性，BMA与EW的修订结果相似，均优于单一GCM模式。通过格网BMA综合修订后，最高气温、最低气温和降水量在验证期的相关系数r分别约提升0.10、0.07和0.06；均方根误差RMSE分别约降低2.38℃、1.01℃和1.01mm；较单一GCM相对观测值的偏差平均约减少3.25℃、1.13℃和25.67mm。未来海南岛农业热量资源在空间上主要表现为从中部向外围逐渐升高，高温主要分布在南部至西部沿海地区，年平均气温的增幅全岛较为接近，1月平均气温、≥10℃积温和≥20℃积温的增幅分别表现为由东向西、由北向南和由中部向外围递减。在时间上，RCP8.5情景下所有农业热量资源均为极显著增加且增温最快，RCP4.5情景为先增加后平缓，RCP2.6情景较为平缓，远期无显著增温。未来海南岛降水资源在空间上转为由东向西逐步递减的格局，南部和北部沿海地区降水变率增加，西部和中部降水变率减少，在时间上无显著变化趋势。随着未来海南岛气候变暖和降水格局的改变，农作物适宜种植面积扩大，会对农业生产带来巨大挑战，应提前布局，做好趋利避害。     

Big game hunter preferences for hunting club attributes: A choice experiment

Big game hunting on private leased forestland is popular in Georgia and other parts of the southern United States. Very often, the leasing arrangement takes the form of a club, wherein a specified number of members pay an annual fee to either a landowner or the club's manager to have a certain bundle of access rights in accordance with other club regulations or attributes. Currently, little is formally known about hunter preferences for club characteristics. The objective of this study was to identify hunter preferences for attributes related to big game hunting clubs and to derive measures of economic value for these attributes. This was accomplished by conducting a choice experiment (CE) via a mail survey in 2012 of licensed big game hunters in Georgia. The CE presented respondents with alternative hunting clubs representing different combinations of attributes including acreage, membership number, harvest regulations, recent forest management activity, and annual club dues. Responses were analyzed with conditional logit and multinomial probit regression models. Consistent with economic theory, hunters preferred more acreage and fewer members. The least preferred harvest regulation was a one buck limit without size restriction while recent clearcutting was the least preferred forest management activity. Results should provide a better understanding of big game hunters' preferences and trade-offs for club attributes and should help landowners and club managers make management decisions that enhance the value of their resources.     

基于变分法的FY-3C土壤水分产品适用性分析

FY-3C作为我国风云三号首颗业务卫星,其上搭载的微波成像仪(MWRI)可提供全天候土壤水分数据。【目的】获取高质量土壤水分数据可以对合理利用土壤水资源提供参考,为农田干旱监控和预报提供基础参数。【方法】选取山东省农业气象站土壤水分数据对FY-3C土壤水分产品进行检验,为获取更高质量FY-3C土壤水分产品,选用变分订正方法对FY-3C土壤水分产品进行偏差订正。【结果】FY-3C升降轨土壤水分产品与地面站土壤水分相关系数R分别为0.481 6和0.408 2,RMSE分别为0.099 6和0.091 0 cm~3/cm~3。订正后FY-3C升降轨土壤水分产品与地面站土壤水分R分别为0.701 4和0.892 4,RMSE分别为0.021 7和0.011 cm~3/cm~3。对2016年3—4月山东省干旱过程订正前、后FY-3C土壤水分变化情况进行对比,订正后FY-3C土壤水分更准确地反映出此次干旱过程。【结论】FY-3C土壤水分产品可以准确反映土壤水分随时间的变化趋势,订正后FY-3C土壤水分产品与地面站土壤水分间误差减小、相关性提高。     

Soil fauna across Central European sandstone ravines with temperature inversion: From cool and shady to dry and hot places

Sandstone massifs with their deep ravines or gorges offer the instructive opportunity to study the response of organisms to steep environmental gradients. In 2008–2010, many groups of soil fauna were studied along transects across three ravines in the Bohemian Switzerland National Park (north-western Czech Republic), a part of the Elbe Sandstone Massif. Each transect included five sampling positions: two opposite edges, two opposite mid-slope positions, and the ravine bottom. The ravines had a specific microclimate characterized by temperature inversion. In general, the cooler and more humid ravine bottoms had also less acid soil with lower carbon content but enriched by litter of deciduous trees and herbs. The other transect positions were characterized by spruce (mid-slopes) and pine (edges) stands with mor humus, exposed to drought in the upper parts. The soil animal communities (identified to species level) differed substantially in dependence on their position along the transects. Ravine bottoms hosted a diverse soil fauna, including a rich macrofauna. The thick duff layer of acid soils on the slopes and edges hosted a poorer fauna but supported high densities of important decomposers such as enchytraeids, oribatid mites and microbivorous nematodes. In general, these were higher on the slopes, presumably due to the drought exposure of the edges. Vertical position in the ravine and soil pH were the most important factors explaining community composition. This confirmed that the area's high geomorphological diversity, leading to steep microclimatic gradients and heterogenous soil conditions, is a major cause of its high biodiversity. A shift in community structure in the lower parts of the ravines, observed after the first half of the study period, was possibly caused by summer flash floods. An increased frequency and severity of dry spells and flash floods due to heavy rains, predicted by relevant climate warming scenarios, will probably have an detrimental effect on the ravines'soil fauna.     

Effects of soybean variety and Bradyrhizobium strains on yield,protein content and biological nitrogen fixation under cool growing conditions in Germany

Soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) is able to fix atmospheric nitrogen in symbiosis with the bacteria Bradyrhizobium japonicum. Because these bacteria are not native in European soils, soybean seeds must be inoculated with Bradyrhizobium strains before sowing to fix nitrogen and meet their yield potential. In Central Europe soybean cultivation is still quite new and breeding of early maturing soybean varieties adapted to cool growing conditions has just started.Under these low temperature conditions in Central Europe the inoculation with different, commercially available Bradyrhizobium inoculants has resulted in unsatisfactory nodulation. The aim of this study was: (i) to test the ability of commercially available inoculants to maximize soybean grain yield, protein content and protein yield, (ii) to study the interaction of different inoculants with different soybean varieties for two different sites in Germany under cool growing conditions over three years and (iii) to determine the variability of biological nitrogen fixation. Field trials were set up on an organically managed site at the Hessische Staatsdomäne Frankenhausen (DFH) and on a conventionally managed site in Quedlinburg (QLB) for three consecutive seasons from 2011 to 2013. Three early maturing soybean varieties—Merlin, Bohemians, Protina—were tested in combination with four different Bradyrhizobium inoculants—Radicin No.7, NPPL-Hi Stick, Force 48, Biodoz Rhizofilm—and compared with a non-inoculated control. Effective inoculation with Bradyrhizobium strains increased grain yield, protein content and protein yield by up to 57%, 26% and 99%, respectively. Grain yield, protein content and protein yield were generally higher in DFH. Average grain yield was 1634 kg ha⁻¹ in QLB (2012–2013) and 2455 kg ha⁻¹ in DFH (2011–2013), average protein content was 386 g kg⁻¹ in QLB and 389 g kg⁻¹ in DFH and average protein yield was 650 kg ha⁻¹ in QLB and 965 kg ha⁻¹ in DFH. The percentage of nitrogen derived from air (Ndfa) ranged between 40% and 57%. Soybeans inoculated with Radicin No. 7 failed to form nodules, and crop performance was identical to the non-inoculated control. Biodoz Rhizofilm, NPPL Hi-Stick and Force 48 are suitable for soybean cultivation under cool growing conditions in Germany. Interactions between soybean variety and inoculant were significant for protein content and protein yield at both sites, but not for nodulation, grain yield, thousand kernel weight and Ndfa. The variety Protina in combination with the inoculant Biodoz Rhizofilm can be recommended for tofu for both tested sites, while Merlin and Protina in combination with Biodoz Rhizofilm are recommended for animal fodder production in DFH. Animal fodder production was not profitable in QLB due to low protein yields.     

Gene silencing of cyclooxygenase-2 mRNA by RNA interference in bovine cumulus-granulosa cells

Inhibition of specific gene expression using RNA interference (RNAi) is a valuable tool for functional analysis of a target gene. However, there is little information available concerning RNAi for analysis of gene function in relation to the reproductive physiology of follicular cells in ruminants. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the interfering effect of small interference RNA (siRNA) on expression of cyclooxygenase-2 (Cox-2) mRNA and prostagrandin F(2alpha) (PGF(2alpha)) production in bovine cumulus-granulosa (CG) cells. Bovine CG cells were collected from aspirated follicles and cultured. After reaching confluency, two experiments were conducted. In experiment 1, to investigate the effective concentration of siRNA, 0, 100, 250 and 500 pM of Cox-2 siRNA was introduced into the CG cells, respectively. After 24 h, the amount of Cox-2 mRNA expression was measured by RT-PCR and real-time PCR. In experiment 2, to investigate the time required for effective interference of siRNA and Cox-2 activity, 250 pM siRNA was introduced for 0, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h. After culture, the amount of Cox-2 mRNA expression was measured and the culture medium was collected to determine the PGF(2alpha) concentration by enzyme immunoassay. The Cox-2 mRNA expression was not affected by introduction of 100 pM siRNA into CG cells for 24 h, but 250 and 500 pM Cox-2 siRNA significantly reduced the Cox-2 mRNA expression. Moreover, the significant suppressive effect of 250 pM siRNA was observed 6 h after introduction, and the reduction of mRNA expression by RNAi became more obvious over 12 h. On the other hand, the PGF(2alpha) concentration in the culture medium was not significantly different 12 h after siRNA introduction; however, the PGF(2alpha) concentration 24 h after siRNA introduction was significantly decreased compared with the control at the same time point. These results suggest that gene silencing of Cox-2 with siRNA is capable of analyzing the function and expression of specific genes in bovine CG cells.     

Historical trends in the incidence of strandings of sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) on North Sea coasts: An association with positive temperature anomalies

Information on the migration patterns of sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) in the North Atlantic is preserved in historical strandings records, particularly for the North Sea, where sperm whale strandings have been documented since the 16th century, reflecting general public interest in large whales ashore. Most strandings in this area occur during or following the southward migration from the feeding grounds, when some animals enter the North Sea (in which they are thought to have difficulty navigating) instead of following their usual route through deep water to the west of the British Isles. There was much speculation about the causes of the high incidence of strandings on North Sea coasts in the 1990s, among which a recently published analysis of long-term trends in strandings indicated an effect of sunspot cycle length. We show that long-term interannual variation in the incidence of sperm whale strandings on North Sea coasts is related to positive temperature anomalies: the incidence of strandings was higher in warmer periods. The effect of temperature anomalies explains between 8 and 9% of variation in the strandings series. Inclusion of sunspot cycle length as an additional predictor did not significantly improve this model. It is suggested that this link with positive temperature anomalies may reflect changes in the distribution of the sperm whales’ main squid prey.     

未来气候变化情景下我国主要粮食作物产量变化模拟

采用气候模式BCC-T63与作物模式WOFOST相结合的研究方法,在多年试验数据和模型适宜性验证的基础上,模拟分析了未来100 a(2000～2100年)气候变化情景下我国主要粮食作物发育和产量变化趋势.主要的粮食作物选取东北区域的玉米、华北区域的冬小麦和南方区域的双季稻.东北区域为东经120°～135°,北纬40°～50°,主要以黑龙江、吉林和辽宁三省区为研究对象;华北区域为东经111°～123°,北纬35°～41°,主要包括京、晋、冀和鲁等地;南方区域为东经109°～120°,北纬25°～30°,主要包括湖南、湖北以及江西等地.结果表明:东北地区玉米生育期会缩短,其中,中熟玉米平均缩短3.8 d,晚熟玉米平均缩短1.4 d,产量也会相应地下降,中热玉米平均减产3.3%,晚熟玉米平均减产2.7%;华北地区冬小麦的生育期平均缩短8.4 d;产量平均减产10.1%;南方早稻生育期平均缩短4.9 d,晚稻生育期平均缩短4.4 d,早稻的产量变化范围为1.9%～-9.5%,平均减产3.6%,晚稻的产量变化范围为2.2%～-7.3%,平均减产2.8%.     

Impact of high temperatures on the marketable tuber yield and related traits of potato

A rapid warming of 2.8–5.3 °C by the end of this century is expected in South Korea. Considering the current temperature during the spring potato growing season (emergence to harvest; ca. 18 °C), which is near the upper limit of the optimum temperature for potato yield, the anticipated warming will adversely affect potato production in South Korea. The present study assessed the impact of high temperature on the marketable tuber yield and related traits of cv. Superior (which makes up 71% of the annual potato production in South Korea) in four temperature-controlled plastic houses and an outdoor field (37.27°N, 126.99°E) during 2015–2016. The target temperatures of the four plastic houses were set to ambient (AT), AT+1.5 °C, AT+3.0 °C, and AT+5.0 °C. The marketable tuber yield was significantly reduced by 11% per 1 °C increase over a temperature range of 19.1–27.7 °C. The negative impact of high temperature was associated not only with the yield loss of total tubers, which was mostly explained by the slower tuber bulking rate, but also the reduced marketable tuber ratio under temperatures above 23 °C, which was mainly attributed to the reduced number of marketable tubers (r = 0.79***). Under moderate temperatures below 23 °C, the source limited the number of marketable tubers without reducing the marketable tuber ratio. In contrast, the number of marketable tubers was limited by the marketable tuber set at the early growth stage rather than the source under the higher temperatures, which resulted in the reduction in the marketable tuber ratio below 56%. These results suggest that the objectives of breeding and agronomic management for adapting to the rapid warming in South Korea should include maintaining the ability to form tubers at the early growth stage under high temperatures, as well as the photosynthetic capacity and sink strength of the tubers.     

Precision,Repeatability, and Efficiency of Two Canopy-Cover Estimate Methods in Northern Great Plains Vegetation

Government agencies are subject to increasing public scrutiny of land management practices. Consequently, rigorous, yet efficient, monitoring protocols are needed to provide defensible quantitative data on the status and trends of rangeland vegetation. Rigor requires precise, repeatable measures, whereas efficiency requires the greatest possible information content for the amount of resources spent acquiring the information. We compared two methods—point frequency and visual estimate—of measuring canopy cover of individual plant species and groups of species (forbs vs. graminoids, native vs. nonnative) and plant species richness. These methods were compared in a variety of grassland vegetation types of the northern Great Plains for their precision, repeatability, and efficiency. Absolute precision of estimates was similar, but values generally differed between the two sampling methods. The point-frequency method yielded significantly higher values than the visual-estimate method for cover by individual species, graminoid cover, and total cover, and yielded significantly lower values for broadleaf (forb + shrub) cover and species richness. Differences in values derived by different sampling teams using the same method were similar between methods and within precision levels for many variables. Species richness and median species cover were the major exceptions; for these, the point-frequency method was far less repeatable. As performed in this study, the visual-estimate method required approximately twice the time as did the point-frequency method, but the former captured 55% more species. Overall, the visual-estimate method of measuring plant cover was more consistent among observers than anticipated, because of strong training, and captured considerably more species. However, its greater sampling time could reduce the number of samples and, therefore, reduce the statistical power of a sampling design if time is a limiting factor.