Can research on the early marine life stage of juvenile chum salmon <Emphasis Type="Italic">Oncorhynchus keta</Emphasis> forecast returns of adult salmon? A case study from eastern Hokkaido,Japan

To examine the efficacy of juvenile salmon research as a tool for forecasting adult returns, the results from a study on the early marine life stage of juvenile chum salmon, conducted in the Nemuro Strait during 1999–2002 (i.e., 1998–2001 brood years), were compared with the return rates of adult salmon. Among the four brood years, the 2000 brood year (i.e., salmon migrating to the sea in 2001) was previously reported as showing higher abundance, higher growth rate and better somatic condition during the coastal residency period. Consequently, we expected it to have the highest return rate, under a hypothesis that juvenile survival in coastal residency regulates brood-year strength. Contrary to this expectation, the 2000 brood year had almost the lowest return rate. Alternatively, a statistical model in which sea surface temperature during the first year of marine life and size at release were utilized as explanatory variables reconstructed the actual variability in return rates more accurately than that based on the early marine life stage. Possible reasons for the discrepancy between the results of the juvenile salmon research and adult returns are discussed, and we suggest improvements for future research on juvenile salmon.