Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy

This paper reviews the knowledge on effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in Europe and the consequences for policy and research. Warming is expected to lead to a northward expansion of suitable cropping areas and a reduction of the growing period of determinate crops (e.g. cereals), but an increase for indeterminate crops (e.g. root crops). Increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations will directly enhance plant productivity and also increase resource use efficiencies.

In northern areas climate change may produce positive effects on agriculture through introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. Disadvantages may be an increase in the need for plant protection, the risk of nutrient leaching and the turnover of soil organic matter. In southern areas the disadvantages will predominate. The possible increase in water shortage and extreme weather events may cause lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and a reduction in suitable areas for traditional crops. These effects may reinforce the current trends of intensification of agriculture in northern and western Europe and extensification in the Mediterranean and southeastern parts of Europe.

Policy will have to support the adaptation of European agriculture to climate change by encouraging the flexibility of land use, crop production, farming systems etc. In doing so, it is necessary to consider the multifunctional role of agriculture, and to strike a variable balance between economic, environmental and social functions in different European regions. Policy will also need to be concerned with agricultural strategies to mitigate climate change through a reduction in emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, an increase in carbon sequestration in agricultural soils and the growing of energy crops to substitute fossil energy use. The policies to support adaptation and mitigation to climate change will need to be linked closely to the development of agri-environmental schemes in the European Union Common Agricultural Policy.

Research will have further to deal with the effect on secondary factors of agricultural production, on the quality of crop and animal production, of changes in frequency of isolated and extreme weather events on agricultural production, and the interaction with the surrounding natural ecosystems. There is also a need to study combined effects of adaptation and mitigation strategies, and include assessments of the consequences on current efforts in agricultural policy to develop a sustainable agriculture that also preserves environmental and social values in the rural society.     

: a software to evaluate model performance

The software (Integrated Resources for Evaluating Numerical Estimates) is a data analysis tool designed to provide easy access to statistical techniques for use in model evaluation. Mostly, non-replicated model estimates (E_i) are compared against non-replicated measurements (M_i). The software also allows comparing individual estimates against replicated measurements (or vice versa) and replicated estimates against replicated measurements. The evaluation of model performance is essentially based on the difference E_i−M_i, or on the correlation–regression of E_i vs. M_i (or vice versa). In addition, model evaluation by probability distributions, pattern analysis, or fuzzy-based aggregation statistics is allowed. Graphics are included in most analytical tasks. The results are displayed in separate spreadsheets and can be exported into MS Excel workbooks.     

Analysis of puroindoline a and b sequences from Triticum aestivum cv. `Penawawa' and related diploid taxa

Flanking sequences of the puroindoline a(pinA) and puroindoline b (pinB) genes from Triticum monococcum, T. urartu, Aegilops speltoides and A. tauschii were obtained by inverse PCR. Two accessions from each of these related diploid taxa were sequenced, and the sequences compared to those of the soft hexaploid wheat cultivar `Penawawa'. As expected from the origin of the D-genome in hexaploid wheat, the highest sequence identity was observed for the A. tauschii sequences, whereas the sequences for A.speltoides were the most divergent. The promoter sequences were further analyzed for putative regulatory elements, and the possible significance of several highly conserved sequence motifs is discussed. Western blots of Triton X-114 extracted proteins separated by SDS-PAGE confirmed the accumulation of pinA and pinB gene products in the endosperm of all the germplasm lines studied. The deduced amino acid sequences for the related diploid taxa do not imply any major structural changes as compared to the wild-type T. aestivum puroindolines, and is therefore in agreement with the soft endosperm texture of these species. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Persistence of azadirachtin residues on olives after field treatment

In this work an HPLC method for the determination of azadirachtin residues on olives was developed, and the field degradation kinetics of the pesticide was studied. In field trials the active ingredient (a.i.) decay had a half-life time of 0.8 days, which was too short to show a good efficacy of treatment. The mechanism of disappearance of the pesticide studied with model systems showed that it was unrelated to evaporation, thermodegradation, and co-distillation, but it was related to photodegradation. The high photodegradation rate of commercial formulations calls for the need to test different formulates in order to increase the persistence of the residue and thus the pesticide's efficacy.     

A chemometric approach to the comparison of different sample treatments for metals determination by atomic absorption spectroscopy in aceto Balsamico tradizionale di Modena

A comparison of different digestion procedures has been carried out for the analysis of metal concentration in samples of vinegars and Aceto Balsamico Tradizionale of Modena (ABTM) coming from an unique barrel set. In particular, classical wet, dry ashing, and closed vessel microwave digestion procedure have been utilized and compared for each investigated species. In a few cases, direct metal determination on ABTM (without treatment procedure) is proposed as possible alternative to sample manipulation. Flame atomic absorption spectrometry was used for the quantification of iron and zinc, while graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry was used for all the other elements (i.e., chromium, manganese, cobalt, nickel, copper, cadmium, and lead). The comparison among the different sample treatments was carried out by the use of statistical and chemometric tools. In particular, principal component analysis and ANOVA approaches were used to discriminate between the diverse analytical methods. Furthermore, for all the dissolving techniques, the analytical metal recovery was always evaluated by the application of the recovery function on the same sample matrix. In general, the recoveries were fairly good, ranging from 90 to 103%, except for Cd and Pb with dry ashing, which showed recovery values close to 55% and 67%, respectively. As regards the metals concentration of the investigated samples, the experimental data reveal for some species the presence of concentration slightly over the legal limit fixed for wine and wine vinegar.     

Vergleichende Untersuchungen der Mineralstoffgehalte geschädigter und nicht geschädigter Rotbuchen (Fagus sylvatica) auf Muschelkalkstandorten im Saarland

Comperative study of the mineral content of damaged and visibly healthy red beeches (Fagus sylvatica) on limestone soils in the Saarland 50-80 years old red beeches from a limestone region in the Saarland, differentiated in apparently healthy and diseased trees, were investigated on their mineral content beginning with the roots over stem up to the leaves. Macro- and microelement contents were different between healthy and diseased trees. Magnesium content in the roots of the latter was markedly reduced. Also zinc and phosphorous were decreased in the damaged trees, while manganese was partially accumulated. On the other side, a high sulphur content was observed in the crown area of both types of trees.     

Threats from overhunting to the flying fox, Pteropus tonganus, (Chiroptera: Pteropodidae) on Niue Island, South Pacific Ocean

Flying fox fruit bats are hunted in an annual 2-month season in Niue, a small and isolated South Pacific island nation. The sustainability of this hunt has been questioned because of an obvious recent decline. We estimated the island-wide flying fox population to be between 2040 and 4080 bats, 2 months prior to the 1998-1999 hunt. Sixty hunters interviewed after the hunt had shot 1555 bats, an unsustainable number. Many Niueans believe that an infinite quantity of flying foxes live in two small taboo or forbidden areas that originally acted as wildlife sanctuaries to safeguard animal resources for times of famine. However, our surveys suggest only a small colony roosts in one taboo area. Niueans' belief that taboo areas shelter an unlimited number of bats cannot be refuted as the areas may not be visited. Consequently, few people believe that the population is being overharvested.     

Seasonal Variations of Sulphate Reduction Rates, Sulphur Pools and Iron Availability in the Sediment of a Dystrophic Lagoon (Sacca di Goro, Italy)

The aim of this work was to analyse factors which regulate sulphide mobility in the sediments of a dystrophic lagoon (Sacca di Goro, the southern lagoon of the Po river delta, Italy). In 1995-96, sediment oxygen demand and variations in organic matter content, redox potential, iron availability, inorganic sulphur concentrations and sulphate reduction rates were measured in sediment profiles at three stations (G, 4 and 17) representative of the main areas of the lagoon. Stations differed mainly in their salinity range and primary producer communities. High concentrations of reactive iron (110-275 µmol ml-1) and low sulphate reduction rates (0.8-16.1 mmol m-2 d-1) were measured in the sediment. Moreover, high concentrations of reactive ferric iron were detected in winter and spring at the stations closest to the freshwater inputs. Nevertheless, in summer, high concentrations of free sulphides were detected in the porewater, although most of the reactive ferrous iron was not sulphide-bound, indicating that not all of the reactive iron pool was available to buffer against sulphide release and thus measures of reactive iron pools may not be a good measure of the true buffering capacity of the sediment. Furthermore, a considerable production of sulphide may occur in the decaying Ulva biomass in the water column, where its concentration will be independent of the potential buffering capacity of iron in the sediment. Therefore when assessing the vulnerability of coastal lagoons to dystrophic events, both the size and availability of the reactive iron pool as well as the site of sulphide production must be taken into consideration.     

Weather and human impacts on forest fires: 100 years of fire history in two climatic regions of Switzerland

Understanding the factors driving past fire regimes is crucial in the context of global change as a basis for predicting future changes. In this study, we aimed to identify the impact of climate and human activities on fire occurrence in the most fire-prone regions of Switzerland. We considered forest fires, land use and meteorological data over the period 1904-2008 in the neighboring mountain cantons (states) of Valais and Ticino, which are characterized by distinct climatic regimes.The presence/absence of fire ignitions was analyzed using the Nesterov ignition index (as a proxy for fire weather), road density (for ignition sources), livestock density (for biomass removal), and change in forest area (for fire-prone abandoned agricultural areas).We found that fire weather played a key role in fire occurrence in both regions. Road and livestock densities had similar influences in the two cantons. However, while the increase in forest area was well correlated with fire occurrence in Ticino, no such correlation was evident in Valais, probably because land abandonment and forest cover change have been less extensive there. Our findings emphasize the non-linear nature of the relationships between fire occurrence and anthropogenic drivers, as we found thresholds above which road density was no longer correlated with fire occurrence. This implies that the projected future increase and spatial concentration of the human population may not result in a further increase in fire risk in intermediately to densely populated areas in both cantons.The driving factors behind fire activity differ slightly in the two cantons, in particular with increasing forest area enhancing fire occurrence in Ticino but not in Valais. These differences should be taken into account when assessing future fire risk, especially in Valais where the potential for an increase in the fire-prone area is still high. Fires are likely to become more frequent in a warmer climate, but future fire activity may develop differently in the two cantons. This should be taken into account when planning optimized fire prevention measures. This case study should help to better understand fire activity in highly populated regions where fire activity is still moderate but might markedly increase under a projected more fire-prone climate.     

Water activity effects on geranyl acetate synthesis catalyzed by novozym in supercritical ethane and in supercritical carbon dioxide

The esterification reaction of geraniol with acetic acid catalyzed by Novozym was studied in supercritical ethane (sc-ethane) and in supercritical carbon dioxide (sc-CO(2)). Water activity (a(W)) had a very strong effect on enzyme activity, with reaction rates increasing up to a(W) = 0.25 and then decreasing for higher a(W). Salt hydrate pairs could not prevent changes in a(W) during the course of reaction but were able to control a(W) to some extent and had a beneficial effect on both initial rates of esterification and conversion in sc-ethane. The enzyme was more active in sc-ethane than in sc-CO(2), confirming the deleterious effect of the latter already observed with some enzymes. Temperatures between 40 and 60 degrees C did not have a strong effect on initial rates of esterification, although reaction progress declined considerably in that temperature range. For the mixture of 50 mM acetic acid plus 200 mM geraniol, 100% conversion was achieved at a reaction time of 10 h at 40 degrees C, 100 bar, an a(W) of incubation of 0.25, and a Novozym concentration of 0.55 mg cm(-)(3) in sc-ethane. Conversion was below 50% in sc-CO(2) at otherwise identical conditions. With an equimolar mixture of the two substrates (100 mM), 98% conversion was reached at 10 h of reaction in sc-ethane (73% conversion in sc-CO(2)).