Comparing Deterministic and Probabilistic Risk Assessments. A case study at a closed steel mill in southern Sweden (7 pp)

Background, Aims and Scope   Contaminated land is a high priority environmental problem in most of Europe and North-America. Sweden is no exception and generic guideline values have been developed for the initial assessment, but site-specific assessments are also needed. The generic guideline values are not applicable when the exposure conditions are different from the typical Swedish conditions or when the site contains a particularly sensitive ecosystem. The Swedish guideline values have, like in many other countries, been set by using deterministic point estimates for all variables and constants in the used multimedia model. The same approach is common also for site-specific assessments, and a limitation is that it fails to quantify variability and uncertainty. Probabilistic risk assessment provided a method to deal with this problem. Variability and uncertainty in the input parameters (variables or constants) are described by probability distributions, and likewise the output (risk or exposure) is presented as a probability distribution. A substantial number of probabilistic risk assessments for contaminated land at sites in North America, Europe and Asia have been published. However, an extensive review of the literature did not identify any study where probabilistic risk assessment was applied to a site contaminated by an iron or steel industry. Here we will describe such a case, where we have compared a deterministic point estimate with a probabilistic risk assessment for six elements and benzo[a]pyrene. Methods   The site had different metallurgical plants in operation for more than 100 years. Most parts of the steel mill were closed by the mid 1980s, and today the site is used by small-sized enterprises. The soil is contaminated with metals from the previous industrial operations. The present owner plans to develop the site and has therefore initiated extensive investigations of soil contamination. Sixty-two soil samples collected between 1997 and 2000 provided a good coverage of the whole site, and were analyzed for the content of different elements and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH). The exposure assessments were focused on six elements with high concentrations compared to the generic guideline values; arsenic (As), lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn). In addition, benzo[a]pyrene was included due to the high toxicity and comparatively high concentrations. Variability and uncertainty were characterized in a Monte Carlo simulation of exposures (10 000 iterations), and the exposures were evaluated with two land use scenarios; less sensitive use and sensitive use. Results and Discussion   The deterministic point estimates and the probabilistic estimates of the 95th percentile are in approximately the same ranges in the scenario of less sensitive land use. It is only the exposure for arsenic that is slightly above the toxicological reference value (TRV) in the deterministic assessment. In the probabilistic assessment, the exposure for all elements is below the TRV. The results for sensitive land use are applicable to a scenario where the site is developed for general housing. The deterministic point estimates and the probabilistic estimates of the 95th percentile are also here in approximately the same ranges, but the exposure exceeds the TRV for arsenic, cadmium and lead. Drinking water, vegetables grown on site and soil ingestion are the major exposure pathways for this scenario. In this assessment, the estimated intake distributions are applicable to a randomly selected individual. The probability distributions used here to characterize the different soil parameters are typically representing both variability and uncertainty, and the same is true the majority of the exposure variables. We therefore decided not to attempt to separate variability and uncertainty at this stage, but with additional data from a more in-depth site investigation it might be possible to achieve this. Conclusions and Outlook   To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first report on a probabilistic risk assessment on a former iron and steel works site. The materials handled by this industry were less toxic than for many other metallurgical operations, but contaminants may still severely limit the options for future land use. This case study shows that probabilistic exposure estimates for a set of soil contaminants can be quite similar to deterministic point estimates. The main difference is instead to be found in the additional information obtained with the probabilistic assessment. The sensitivity analyses show pathways and input variables that contribute most to variations in the total intake of each contaminant, e.g. dermal contact and ingestion of soil, vegetables and drinking water. This information can be used both in the planning of future land use and for active measures to reduce current exposure. The probabilistic assessment also provides information on the magnitude of exposure and the margin of safety. This information may facilitate risk communication between decision-makers and stakeholders. The presentation of results from probabilistic risk assessments is only briefly discussed in the literature and here we see a need for research and opportunities for enhancement. The choice of data analytical tools may then be of importance, since more complex multimedia models are rather difficult to decipher when implemented within traditional spreadsheet software. Some of the research needs are identified here and in a previous review article in this journal.     

Analysis of Genetic Relationships among Turkish Cultivars and Breeding Lines of Lens culinatis Mestile Using RAPD Markers

Randomly Amplified Polymorphic DNA markers were used to determine the genetic relationships among Turkish lentil cultivars and breeding lines. Fourteen cultivars and thirteen breeding lines were evaluated to determine genetic variability using nine random 10-mer primers (among 45 primers). Forty-one reproducible bands were obtained, 54% of which were polymorphic. Genetic distances among cultivars and breeding lines were obtained from the simple matching coefficients (SM). The lowest genetic distance was observed between the cultivars of Ali Dayi and Kafkas with 5.0%, while ‘Seyran-96’ and ‘Ozbek’ had the highest genetic distance with 58.3%. An unweighted pair-group method with arithmetic averages (UPGMA) cluster analysis was performed on the distance matrix using Phylip software. The dendrogram clearly showed two distinct groups. The first group is composed of Akm 565 and Akm 563. The second group contains all the cultivars and remaining eleven breeding lines.     

A field study on the influence of soil ph on trace element levels in spring wheat (Triticum aestivum), potatoes (Solanum tuberosum) and carrots (Daucus carota)

Soil pH is one of the main factors influencing the solubility and availability of trace elements in arable soils. Thus pH can affect the trace element contents of agricultural crops and thereby indirectly influence human health. The aim of this study was to determine Cd, Ni, Zn, Cu, Mn, Cr, Al and Se contents in spring wheat, potatoes and carrots (Cd, Ni and Zn) and estimate their correlations with certain soil factors (surface and subsurface soil pH and organic matter content) governing the plant availability of these elements. Commercial fields were sampled in Sweden in order to cover a wide range of soil types with respect to pH, soil texture and organic matter content. Concentrations of Zn, Mn, Ni (grain) and Cd (straw) in spring wheat (n=43); Cd, Ni, Zn, Mn, Cu and Al in potatoes (n=69); and Cd, Ni and Zn in carrots (n=36) showed significant negative correlations with surface soil pH (0–25 cm). The Se content of potatoes and Cr content of spring wheat straw were positively correlated with soil pH. Stepwise multiple regressions including a combination of soil pHs (0–25 and 25–50 cm) and organic matter contents (0–25 cm) showed that the organic matter content as well as the surface and subsurface soil pH significantly influenced concentrations of several trace elements in one or more of the studied crops. It was concluded that, if acid deposition together with other acidifying processes (fertilisation, harvest of biomass, etc.) are not balanced by a sufficient amount of liming there might be a decrease in the pH of arable soils, which, in turn will lead to decreased levels of Se in edible crops but an overall increase concentrations of other trace elements.     

The Impact of Wood Ash and Green Liquor Dregs Application on Ca, Cu, Zn and Cd Contents in Bark and Wood of Norway Spruce

To counteract nutrient depletion and acidification of forest soils, recycling of waste products from the forest industry has been suggested. Spreading of these waste products will probably change the concentration and availability of Ca and heavy metals in forest soils and thereby the contents of these metals in trees. This field study aimed at examining the influence of pellets of wood ash (ash) or a mixture of wood ash and green liquor dregs (ash+GLD) on the contents of Ca, Cd, Cu and Zn in wood and bark of Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.]. The waste products were spread in an amount of 3000 kg ha^?1 in 1996 at a felling site in Sweden and in 1999 and 2002 young spruce trees, planted in 1995, were collected and wood and bark were analysed for Ca, Cd, Cu and Zn with AAS. Changes in the metal content of wood and bark of young spruce trees were found 3 and 6 years after spreading pellets of ash or ash+GLD compared with the control. The effect of the treatments on the metal contents of bark and wood differed and was larger after 3 years than after 6 years. Treatment with ash+GLD tended to have less effect on the metal contents of bark and wood than treatment with only ash. An increase in the contents of Cu and Zn in bark or wood, compared with the control, was only found for the ash treatment and only 3 years after application. Both the ash and ash+GLD treatment decreased the Cd content of the wood and/or bark after 3 years, and after 6 years it still was, or tended to be, lower than the control.     

Comparison of direct electron microscopy and enzyme immunoassay for the detection of rotaviruses in calves, lambs, piglets and foals

Direct electron microscopy (EM) and enzyme-immunoassay (rotazyme) results for the detection of rotaviruses in 346 enteric specimens from calves, lambs, piglets and foals were compared. The rotazyme test was at least 3 times more sensitive than direct EM in diagnosing infection. Rotavirus antigen was demonstrated by rotazyme in 22% of 280 scour samples and in 27% of 66 samples from non-scouring animals. There was an association between diarrhoea and higher amounts of rotavirus antigen. This prevalence of rotaviruses detected in animals with diarrhoea highlights the significant involvement of other pathogens identified in the study including Eimeria, Cryptosporidia, Escherichia coli, Campylobacter, and other viruses.     

Effects of photoperiod on salsolinol‐induced prolactin secretion in goats

The aim of the present study was to clarify the relation between salsolinol (SAL)‐induced prolactin (PRL) release and photoperiod in goats. A single intravenous (i.v.) injection of SAL was given to adult female goats under short (8 h light, 16 h dark) or long (16 h light, 8 h dark) photoperiod conditions at two different ambient temperatures (20°C or 5°C), and the PRL‐releasing response to SAL was compared to that of thyrotropin‐releasing hormone (TRH) or a dopamine (DA) receptor antagonist, sulpiride. SAL, as well as TRH or sulpiride, stimulated the release of PRL promptly after each injection in both 8‐ and 16‐h daily photoperiods at 20°C (P < 0.05). The area under the response curve (AUC) of PRL for the 60‐min period after injections of saline (controls), SAL, TRH and sulpiride in the 16‐h daily photoperiod group was greater than each corresponding value in the 8‐h daily photoperiod group (P < 0.05). There were no significant differences in the AUC of PRL among the values produced after the injection of SAL, TRH and sulpiride in 16‐h daily photoperiod group; however, the values produced after the injection of TRH were smallest among the three in the 8‐h daily photoperiod group (P < 0.05). The PRL‐releasing responses to SAL, TRH and sulpiride under a short and long photoperiod condition at 5°C resembled those at 20°C. These results show that a long photoperiod highly enhances the PRL‐releasing response to SAL as well as TRH or sulpiride in either medium or low ambient temperature in goats.     

Effect of temperature and time on mechanical and electrical properties of HDPE/glass fiber composites

In recent years, composites based on glass fiber reinforced polymer have been widely used in order to meet increasing durability and safety regulations, particularly in the power cable, automotive and plane industry. In this paper, mechanical and electrical properties of high density polyethylene (HDPE) and HDPE containing glass fiber polymer composites were investigated and compared at different temperatures. Composite materials were prepared with the hot pressing method. Tensile strength, % elongation and the modulus of elasticity (or Young’s modulus) were determined for each sample at different temperatures. In addition to this, at different temperatures τ _σ and τ _E have mechanical and electrical lifetime respectively, corresponding to mechanical tension (σ) and electrical strength (E), and this was investigated for each sample. As compared to the mechanical and electrical properties of neat HDPE, HDPE/0.5 % glass fiber composites have been found to have better mechanical and electrical durability.     

Prevalence of subclinical mastitis and isolated udder pathogens in dairy cows in Southern Vietnam

Dairy production is not traditional in Vietnam. The farmers have little practical knowledge and udder health control is generally lacking. In order to give the farmers appropriate advice, knowledge about the distribution of udder pathogens is crucial. The aim of the study was to investigate the prevalence of sub-clinical mastitis and to identify udder pathogens isolated from smallholder dairy herds in Southern Vietnam. Twenty farms with a herd somatic cell count (SCC) ranging from low (≤400?×?10³?cells/mL) to high (>400?×?10³?cells/mL) were randomly selected. Milk samples were collected from 458 quarters of 115 clinically healthy cows. SCC was analyzed on farm by a portable cell counter. Bacteriological samples were taken using Mastistrip^© cassettes and sent to Sweden for examination. For all herds the mean herd SCC was 632?×?10³/mL milk. The prevalence of subclinical mastitis at quarter SCC basis was 63.2 % and at cow basis 88.6 %. Only 40 % of all cows were bacteriologically negative in all quarters. Streptococcus agalactiae was the most commonly found bacteria species, isolated from 96 of the 458 quarter samples, in 13 of the 20 farms. The results indicate pronounced subclinical mastitis problems among the dairy cows in this region mainly due to infections with S. agalactiae. The high prevalence of this highly contagious pathogen is probably attributable to the generally poor milking hygiene and low awareness of proper measures to prevent occurrence and spread of udder infections. A strict, targeted action program for the herds in this area is required in order to lower the prevalence of subclinical mastitis.     

Aortic rupture and aorto‐pulmonary fistulation in the Friesian horse: Characterisation of the clinical and gross post mortem findings in 24 cases

Reasons for performing study: In horses, aortic sinus of Valsalva aneurysms or tears in the aortic root are well‐recognised conditions in breeding stallions, often leading to sudden death. A more uncommon form of aortic rupture, located proximal to the ligamentum arteriosum has been reported in 3 Friesian horses. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to phenotypically characterise aortic rupture and aorto‐pulmonary fistulation in Friesian horses in terms of clinical and post mortem data based on 24 cases. Methods: Friesian horses that were diagnosed with aortic rupture and aorto‐pulmonary fistulation over a period of 13 years (1997–2010) at the Department of Equine Sciences of Utrecht University (n = 15) and Wolvega Equine Hospital (n = 9), were included in this study. Case history, results of clinical examination and gross post mortem findings were screened and analysed. Results: Some cases were found dead without prior symptoms, but in several cases signs such as recurrent colic, peripheral oedema and sustained tachycardia were present for several weeks prior to cardiac failure. Clinical examination during hospitalisation revealed increased rectal temperature, peripheral oedema and increased jugular pulse with a bounding arterial pulse. In the majority of horses an aortic rupture of the aortic arch near the ligamentum arteriosum, concurrent with a circumferential cuff of perivascular haemorrhage and aorto‐pulmonary fistulation, was found at post mortem examination. Conclusions: Aorto‐pulmonary fistulation in conjunction with aortic rupture is more common in Friesians than previously estimated. In some cases findings demonstrate a progressive pathology rather than acute cardiac failure and sudden death. An appropriate approach is necessary during post mortem examination of the heart in order not to overlook the diagnosis. Potential relevance: Equine practitioners should realise that in Friesian horses presented with a history of recurrent false colic, coughing, sustained tachycardia and/or peripheral oedema, aortic rupture and aorto‐pulmonary fistulation should be included in the differential diagnosis.