Communicating risk and uncertainty in relation to development and implementation of disease control policies

Scientific evidence is one of the key factors to be considered in the development of disease control policies. It is generated using investigations into cause-effect relationships, which usually produce results that are associated with a varying degree of uncertainty. Experience has shown that taking account of these uncertainties can become a formidable challenge for policy makers when devising the strategies and when communicating them to stakeholders. The situation has been further complicated by a reduction in public trust in scientific evidence. It is now recognised that this challenge cannot be managed by simply providing more information, but it is also necessary to consider the influence that variation in risk perception amongst stakeholders has on their response to and commitment towards the policies.     

Descriptive spatial analysis of scrapie-affected flocks in Great Britain between January 1993 and December 2002

The spatial distribution of sheep flocks in Great Britain with confirmed clinical scrapie between January 1993 and December 2002 inclusive was investigated by using kernel density estimation and a cluster scan test statistic. Six statistically significant clusters were identified: three were lower risk, and were centred on the north-western coast of Scotland, the north-western coast of Wales and the South Yorkshire/Pennine region; three were of higher risk, and were centred in the central south, North Yorkshire and north Cumbria. General knowledge and the results of previous epidemiological studies were used to generate biologically plausible hypotheses that might explain these findings. They included aspects of flock management and disease transmission, and factors associated with the identification of cases, including their detection, recognition and, in particular, reporting levels, as well as diagnosis and animal movements.     

REVIEW: Biofortification of Durum Wheat with Zinc and Iron

Micronutrient malnutrition affects over 2 billion people in the developing world. Iron (Fe) deficiency alone affects >47% of all preschool aged children globally, often leading to impaired physical growth, mental development, and learning capacity. Zinc (Zn) deficiency, like iron, is thought to affect billions of people, hampering growth and development, and destroying immune systems. In many micronutrient‐deficient regions, wheat is the dominant staple food making up >50% of the diet. Biofortification, or harnessing the powers of plant breeding to improve the nutritional quality of foods, is a new approach being used to improve the nutrient content of a variety of staple crops. Durum wheat in particular has been quite responsive to breeding for nutritional quality by making full use of the genetic diversity of Fe and Zn concentrations in wild and synthetic parents. Micronutrient concentration and genetic diversity has been well explored under the HarvestPlus biofortification research program, and very positive associations have been confirmed between grain concentrations of protein, Zn, and Fe. Yet some work remains to adequately explain genetic control and molecular mechanisms affecting the accumulation of Zn and Fe in grain. Further, evidence suggests that nitrogen (N) nutritional status of plants can have a positive impact on root uptake and the deposition of micronutrients in seed. Extensive research has been completed on the role of Zn fertilizers in increasing the Zn density of grain, suggesting that where fertilizers are available, making full use of Zn fertilizers can provide an immediate and effective option to increase grain Zn concentration, and productivity in particular, under soil conditions with severe Zn deficiency.     

Risk factors and characteristics of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) post-vaccination outbreaks

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus H5N1 is now endemic in South-East Asia but HPAI control methods differ between countries. A widespread HPAI vaccination campaign that started at the end of 2005 in Viet Nam resulted in the cessation of poultry and human cases, but in 2006/2007 severe HPAI outbreaks re-emerged. In this study we investigated the pattern of this first post-vaccination epidemic in southern Viet Nam identifying a spatio-temporal cluster of outbreak occurrence and estimating spatially smoothed incidence rates of HPAI. Spatial risk factors associated with HPAI occurrence were identified. Medium-level poultry density resulted in an increased outbreak risk (Odds ratio (OR) = 5.4, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.6–18.9) but also climate-vegetation factors played an important role: medium-level normalised difference vegetation indices during the rainy season from May to October were associated with higher risk of HPAI outbreaks (OR = 3.7, 95% CI: 1.7–8.1), probably because temporal flooding might have provided suitable conditions for the re-emergence of HPAI by expanding the virus distribution in the environment and by enlarging areas of possible contacts between domestic waterfowl and wild birds. On the other hand, several agricultural production factors, such as sweet potatoes yield, increased buffalo density, as well as increased electricity supply were associated with decreased risk of HPAI outbreaks. This illustrates that preventive control measures for HPAI should include a promotion of low-risk agricultural management practices as well as improvement of the infrastructure in village households. Improved HPAI vaccination efforts and coverage should focus on medium poultry density areas and on the pre-monsoon time period.     

Economic evaluation of three anthelmintic strategies for lamb flocks affected by benzimidazole-resistant nematodes

OBJECTIVE: To compare the profitability of three anthelmintic strategies in growing lambs in flocks with nematodes resistant to benzimidazole anthelmintics. METHOD: A partial-budgeting analysis was carried out by means of a stochastic simulation model, which allows inputs to be described as distributions rather than as fixed values, and hence permits variation between farms to be considered in the analysis. RESULTS: The results show that control of nematode parasites by use of an effective anthelmintic provides the highest net returns, yielding a margin over ineffectively treated lambs of A$114 per 100 lambs on average. Suppressive treatment based on the administration of two controlled-release capsules and monthly with moxidectin resulted in an average loss of A$131 per 100 lambs in comparison with animals treated with an ineffective anthelmintic. Analysis of the results from capsule-treated lambs did not take into account the unmeasured benefits associated with less contamination of pastures. Sensitivity analysis using a stochastic model indicates that apart from the effect of treatment on weight gain variation in carcase price greatly influences the profitability of all the parasite control programs examined. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that it is economically important for farmers to adjust their strategy in the presence of anthelmintic resistance. But as a result of uncertainty in the factors influencing economic return, the expected economic benefit is likely to vary substantially.     

Clomipramine-induced urinary retention in a cat

A 10-year-old, female, spayed shorthair with presumed psychogenic alopecia was treated with clomipramine (1 mg/kg body weight/day). The cat developed urinary retention within 2 days. Clomipramine was discontinued. Clinical signs resolved over the next 7 days. The urinary retention was attributed to the anticholinergic effects of clomipramine.     

Factors associated with the wastage and achievements in competition of event horses registered in the United Kingdom

The aims of this study were to estimate the wastage of horses registered for eventing in Britain, to investigate the reasons for this wastage and to evaluate factors affecting the horses' achievement of grade I status (at least 61 points) while registered. An analysis of the database of the British Eventing register found that 33.7 per cent of horses registered for the first time in 1999 were not re-registered for eventing in subsequent years. By using multivariable logistic regression analysis, it was shown that horses that were kept at an event yard were more likely to be re-registered than those kept on other premises (odds ratio [or] 2.0, 95 per cent confidence interval [ci] 1.2 to 3.2), and those that took part in showjumping while registered were also more likely to be re-registered (or 1.5, 95 per cent ci 1.1 to 2.2). Horses that took part in unaffiliated eventing while registered were less likely to be re-registered the following year (or 0.7, 95 per cent ci 0.5 to 0.9), as were those that were not insured (or 0.7, 95 per cent ci 0.5 to 1.0) and those from outside the British Isles (or 0.6, 95 per cent ci 0.3 to 1.0). Veterinary problems were the most commonly cited explanation (35.1 per cent) why horses that remained in their original ownership were not re-registered with British Eventing the following year. Horses from Australia were more likely to achieve grade I status than horses from the British Isles (or 9.7, 95 per cent ci 7.1 to 13.2), as were horses from New Zealand (or 6.4, 95 per cent ci 5.0 to 8.2), the usa (or 5.2, 95 per cent ci 3.8 to 7.2) and France (or 2.8, 95 per cent ci 2.1 to 3.7), but horses from the Netherlands (or 0.5, 95 per cent ci 0.3 to 0.9) and Belgium (or 0.3, 95 per cent ci 0.1 to 0.9) were less likely to achieve grade I status. Mares were less likely to achieve grade I status than geldings (or 0.4, 95 per cent ci 0.4 to 0.5).     

Solid substrate for production of Alternaria alternata conidia: a potential mycoherbicide for the control of Eichhornia crassipes (water hyacinth)

Eichhornia crassipes (water hyacinth), a major aquatic weed in India, is one of the targets in a biological weed control research programme in India. A fungal pathogen, Alternaria alternata, is being evaluated as a biological control agent for this weed. The feasibility of solid substrate for the mass production of A. alternata has been examined. Conidia production and virulence of A. alternata were affected by temperature, light and incubation period. The highest number of conidia were produced on rice seed followed by wheat, sorghum, maize seeds and cornmeal at 20°C when exposed to near‐ultraviolet than on the other substrates, while the least conidia were observed on these substrates under light conditions. At 20°C, large numbers of virulent conidia were produced on rice seeds after 4 weeks of incubation under constant dark conditions. Henceforth, the use of rice seeds as a solid substrate for production of A. alternata could be a feasible method to produce conidia in a village co‐operative scenario in India.