Mechanistic links between climate and fisheries along the east coast of the United States: explaining population outbursts of Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus)

Climate has been linked to variation in marine fish abundance and distribution, but often the mechanistic processes are unknown. Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) is a common species in estuarine and coastal areas of the mid‐Atlantic and southeast coasts of the U.S. Previous studies have identified a correlation between Atlantic croaker abundance and winter temperatures in Chesapeake Bay, and have determined thermal tolerances of juveniles. Here we re‐examine the hypothesis that winter temperature variability controls Atlantic croaker population dynamics. Abundance indices were analyzed at four life history stages from three regions along the east coast of the U.S. Correlations suggest that year‐class strength is decoupled from larval supply and is determined by temperature‐linked, overwinter survival of juveniles. Using a relation between air and water temperatures, estuarine water temperature was estimated from 1930 to 2002. Periods of high adult catch corresponded with warm winter water temperatures. Prior studies indicate that winter temperature along the east coast is related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); variability in catch is also correlated with the NAO, thereby demonstrating a link between Atlantic croaker dynamics, thermal limited overwinter survival, and the larger climate system of the North Atlantic. We hypothesize that the environment drives the large‐scale variability in Atlantic croaker abundance and distribution, but fishing and habitat loss decrease the resiliency of the population to periods of poor environmental conditions and subsequent weak year classes.     

Effects of interdecadal climate variability on the oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific

A major reorganization of the North-east Pacific biota transpired following a climatic `regime shift' in the mid 1970s. In this paper, we characterize the effects of interdecadal climate forcing on the oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific Ocean. We consider the concept of scale in terms of both time and space within the North Pacific ecosystem and develop a conceptual model to illustrate how climate variability is linked to ecosystem change. Next we describe a number of recent studies relating climate to marine ecosystem dynamics in the NE Pacific Ocean. These studies have focused on most major components of marine ecosystems – primary and secondary producers, forage species, and several levels of predators. They have been undertaken at different time and space scales. However, taken together, they reveal a more coherent picture of how decadal-scale climate forcing may affect the large oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific. Finally, we synthesize the insight gained from interpreting these studies. Several general conclusions can be drawn.
1 There are large-scale, low-frequency, and sometimes very rapid changes in the distribution of atmospheric pressure over the North Pacific which are, in turn, reflected in ocean properties and circulation.
2 Oceanic ecosystems respond on similar time and space scales to variations in physical conditions.
3 Linkages between the atmosphere/ocean physics and biological responses are often different across time and space scales.
4 While the cases presented here demonstrate oceanic ecosystem response to climate forcing, they provide only hints of the mechanisms of interaction.
5 A model whereby ecosystem response to specified climate variation can be successfully predicted will be difficult to achieve because of scale mismatches and nonlinearities in the atmosphere–ocean–biosphere system.     

Evaluating diel, ontogenetic and environmental effects on larval fish vertical distribution using Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape

Changes in ichthyoplankton vertical distributions can have important consequences with respect to larval transport and survivorship, yet determining the relative importance of environmental influences on vertical migrations in a statistically meaningful framework remains challenging. Here we use Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) and Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) to model the vertical distribution of larval Urophycis regia collected over a 108-h time series on the Mid-Atlantic Bight shelf. Depth was the response variable weighted by two measures of larval abundance: concentrations (number 100 m⁻³) and proportions at depth. Mean and variance of depth were modeled as a function of time, wind stress, current velocity, water column stratification and ontogeny. Model results indicated a large effect of stage for both concentration- and proportion-based analyses. Subsequent and separate analyses on preflexion and postflexion U. regia indicated a differential response to the environmental parameters based on ontogeny. Model results suggested preflexion U. regia do not have a diel pattern in vertical distribution, but do avoid areas of high surface turbulence related to wind stress. In contrast, postflexion larvae have a significant diel pattern of vertical distribution mediated by surface turbulence (increased variance). The statistical approaches applied here offer the potential to evaluate the effect of multiple factors on vertical distribution and have provided significant insight into the factors that influence the vertical distribution of spotted hake larvae.     

Contributions of FOCI research to forecasts of year-class strength of walleye pollock in Shelikof Strait, Alaska

NOAA's Fisheries Oceanography Coordinated Investigations (FOCI) contributes information to help forecast year-class strength of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma ) in the Gulf of Alaska. Quantitative estimates of recruitment are obtained from models of stock assessment and stock projection employing information supplied by FOCI. To generate its information, FOCI convenes specialists in marine biology, physical and fisheries oceanography, meteorology, and statistics to assemble and analyse relevant biological and physical time series with respect to recruitment and processes hypothesized to influence fish survival. Statistical methods encompass linear and nonlinear regression, stochastic simulation modelling, transfer function time series modelling, and tree-modelling regression. The current database consists of 31 years of data, and analyses have identified factors that affect ocean stratification and circulation during spring and summer of the fish's birth year as being important to recruitment. A conceptual model of the recruitment process serves as the framework for a recruitment forecast scheme. A stochastic mathematical simulation model of the conceptual model produces similarities between simulated and observed recruitment time series. FOCI has successfully forecast recruitment observed over the past several years.