Agent-based land-use models: a review of applications

Agent-based modelling is an approach that has been receiving attention by the land use modelling community in recent years, mainly because it offers a way of incorporating the influence of human decision-making on land use in a mechanistic, formal, and spatially explicit way, taking into account social interaction, adaptation, and decision-making at different levels. Specific advantages of agent-based models include their ability to model individual decision-making entities and their interactions, to incorporate social processes and non-monetary influences on decision-making, and to dynamically link social and environmental processes. A number of such models are now beginning to appear—it is timely, therefore, to review the uses to which agent-based land use models have been put so far, and to discuss some of the relevant lessons learnt, also drawing on those from other areas of simulation modelling, in relation to future applications. In this paper, we review applications of agent-based land use models under the headings of (a) policy analysis and planning, (b) participatory modelling, (c) explaining spatial patterns of land use or settlement, (d) testing social science concepts and (e) explaining land use functions. The greatest use of such models so far has been by the research community as tools for organising knowledge from empirical studies, and for exploring theoretical aspects of particular systems. However, there is a need to demonstrate that such models are able to solve problems in the real world better than traditional modelling approaches. It is concluded that in terms of decision support, agent-based land-use models are probably more useful as research tools to develop an underlying knowledge base which can then be developed together with end-users into simple rules-of-thumb, rather than as operational decision support tools. This paper arises from research conducted as part of the UK Research Councils’ RELU Programme (award number RES-224-25-0102). RELU is funded jointly by the Economic and Social Research Council, the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council and the Natural Environment Research Council, with additional funding from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and the Scottish Executive Environment and Rural Affairs Department.     

What attracts elk onto cattle pasture? Implications for inter-species disease transmission

In Southwest Alberta, beef cattle and wild elk (Cervus elaphus) have similar habitat preferences. Understanding their inter-species contact structure is important for assessing the risk of pathogen transmission between them. These spatio-temporal patterns of interactions are shaped, in part, by range management and environmental factors affecting elk distribution. In this study, resource selection modeling was used to identify factors influencing elk presence on cattle pasture and elk selection of foraging patches; furthermore, consequences for inter-species disease transmission were discussed.     

长大桥梁结构按多点输入的竖向地震反应分析

本文采用土与结构相互作用的计算模型分析了长大桥梁结构的竖向地震反应。在相互作用的计算中,利用圆心位移影响函数法求得地基的动态复刚度,采用子结构技术建立结构的动态方程,通过快速傅立叶变换在频域上求解。将计算结果与刚性地基计算模型的计算结果以及同时同位相输入的计算结果比较表明:长大桥梁应采用土与结构相互作用计算模型,按多点输入计算,并进行竖向反应分析。     

播量·追氮量互作对小麦生长发育·产量·性状和品质的影响

[目的]主要研究播种量与追氮量互作对小麦(Triticum aestivum Linn.)生长发育、产量和品质的影响,探索小麦高产优质生产的播种量与追氮量的最优组合。[方法]试验设播种量和追氮量2个因素,施入的氮肥为尿素(N 46%),播种量分3个水平(60、120、180kg/hm2),追氮量分4个水平(0、56、112、168 kg/hm2),随机区组设计。[结果]追氮量相同时,播量增大,茎蘖数越多,叶面积指数越大,干物质积累越大。播量相同时,追氮量对茎蘖动态、叶面积指数、干物质积累的影响较大,追氮量168 kg/hm2处理的茎蘖动态、叶面积指数、干物质积累均高于对应播量的其他3个基追比例处理;不同播量条件下,追氮量对小麦各群体结构指标影响规律不一致,播量与追氮量之间存在互作效应。另外,播量、追氮量对小麦容重、蛋白质含量、出粉率均有显著影响,而对含水量影响不大;播量、追氮量对小麦面粉品质有一定影响。播量180 kg/hm2、追氮量168 kg/hm2时最有利于产量提高;播量120 kg/hm2、追氮量168 kg/hm2的籽粒品质协调且最优。[结论]播量、追氮量对小麦产量和品质的调控效应显著,且播量与追氮量之间存在互作效应。     

季铵盐阳离子双子表面活性剂C12-2-C12·2Br与HPC在水溶液中的相互作用

采用流变和荧光等方法研究了季铵盐阳离子双子表面活性剂C12-2-C12.2Br(S2)与水溶性高分子羟丙基纤维素(hydroxypropyl cellulose HPC)质量分数1%的水溶液的相互作用。HPC/S2水溶液在剪切速率r=0~700s-1内均表现为牛顿型。混合溶液η0随着表面活性剂浓度的增加开始升高,在表面活性剂浓度约2.0mmol·L-1时出现峰值,然后呈缓慢下降趋势。稳态荧光测定I1/I3及电导测定电导率随S2浓度变化的结果表明:HPC/S2水溶液中两者相互作用,S2在HPC分子上形成了聚集体,临界聚集浓度为0.7mmol·L-1,到2.0mmol·L-1时溶液中自由胶团生成。     

Effects of certain cations on manganese absorption by excised rice roots

Abstract

The peanut requires a readily available source of Ca in the fruiting zone during fruit development. Field studies were conducted for three years on two soils to compare rates of fine and coarse gypsum material applied to peanuts shortly after planting and at early flowering in supplying Ca to the peanut fruit and its effect on yields. The fine and coarse gypsum was applied at three rates and at two different times in randomized complete block experiments. At approximately every four weeks, composite soil samples were collected at 0–5 and 5–10 cm depths and extracted with (0.05N HC1 + 0.025N H₂ SO₄) extractant. On the Lakeland soil fine gypsum applied at early flowering gave higher Ca levels at the 0–10 cm depth than coarse material applied shortly after planting or at early flowering. Yield data showed that at low rates coarse gypsum applied at planting was superior to early flowering application. In most instances on the Greenville soil, coarse gypsum applied at planting produced higher levels of Ca than fine or coarse gypsum applied at early flowering. There was no yield response to gypsum application.     

The counteracting effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and drought episodes: Studies of enchytraeid communities in a dry heathland

The potential impacts of interactions of multiple climate change factors in soil ecosystems have received little attention. Most studies have addressed effects of single factors such as increased temperature or atmospheric CO₂ but little is known about how such environmental factors will interact. In the present study we investigate the effects of in situ exposure to elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration, increased temperatures and prolonged drought episodes on field communities of Enchytraeidae (Oligochaeta) in a dry heathland (Brandbjerg, Denmark). Increased CO₂ had a positive effect on enchytraeid biomass, whereas drought significantly reduced it. Elevated temperature did not result in any detectable effects. No interactions between the three factors were observed. Interestingly, the positive effect of increased CO₂ and the negative effect of drought were cancelled out when applied in combination. Thus, in the combined drought and CO₂ treatment, and when additionally combined with increased temperature, the total biomass of enchytraeids was similar to those in the ambient plots. The positive effect of increased CO₂ seemed to be influenced by season, as the response was most pronounced during summer, and less so in autumn. The impact of the drought was more consistent, with enchytraeids reduced at all sampling occasions. Moreover, the negative effect of drought seemed to depend on the inter-annual variability of precipitation. The year with a dry summer and autumn (2006) showed a stronger impact of drought on the enchytraeids, compared to the year with a wet summer and autumn (2007). Our study emphasises the importance of multi-factorial experimental design as a means to investigate effects of climatic changes.     

Simulation of land use impacts on groundwater levels and streamflow in a Virginia watershed

Increase in withdrawal and decrease in recharge of groundwater due to urbanization influences subsurface flow regimes. The overall objective of this study was to determine the impact of land development activities on the subsurface flow regime in the Upper Roanoke River Watershed (URRW). A regional groundwater model of the URRW was constructed using Modular Three-Dimensional Ground-Water Flow Model (MODFLOW) and calibrated for steady-state conditions. Then, eight land use management scenarios were simulated on the Back Creek (BC) subwatershed to assess the impacts of residential density, residential location, and land-cover on hydraulic head of groundwater and streamflow. The average recharge output from the Hydrological Simulation Program, FORTRAN (HSPF) simulation was used as the direct input to MODFLOW to take changes in land use into account in the BC watershed. Development of agriculture and forest areas with low-population density on larger area (low-density scenario), near the middle of the watershed (mid-section scenario), and with changes all open space to lawn (lawn scenario) had greatest overall impact on the BC watershed for both hydraulic head and streamflow among density, location, and land-cover scenarios, respectively. The simulated scenarios indicated that decreases in both hydraulic head and streamflow coincided with the increases in impervious land. The reductions in hydraulic head and streamflow were restricted to the subwatershed where land use changes occurred. The urbanization impacts on both surface and subsurface regimes were very local with 20.8 cm of maximum difference in local hydraulic head and 0.532% of maximum percent difference in local streamflow at lawn scenario while average corresponding values through BC watershed was 4.3 cm and 0.153%, respectively. Use of a fully distributed surface model in a dynamic manner was recommended to solve the inconsistencies in the spatial and temporal scale of surface and groundwater models. However, the proposed approach can be used as a management and planning tool for evaluating the local and overall impacts of land use management on the surface and subsurface flow regimes.     

Consideration of different outbreak conditions in the evaluation of preventive culling and emergency vaccination to control foot and mouth disease epidemics

In recent foot and mouth disease outbreaks, many healthy animals have been culled to prevent disease transmission. Emergency vaccination is discussed as an alternative to culling of unaffected animals. A spatial and temporal Monte–Carlo simulation model was used to compare preventive culling and emergency vaccination. Different outbreaks are described using additional influence factors such as airborne spread, farm density, type of index-case farm and delay until establishment of the control strategies. The fewest farms were infected establishing a combined strategy including a 1 km preventive culling and 1–10 km emergency vaccination zone around each outbreak farm. Taking the number of culled and vaccinated farms into account, vaccination around the first diagnosed farm combined with the baseline strategy (culling of outbreak farms, protection and surveillance zone, contact tracing) is to be preferred. In the present study, emergency vaccination was an effective control strategy especially in densely populated regions.