Comparison of emission estimates for non‐CO2 greenhouse gases from livestock and poultry in Korea from 1990 to 2010

It has often been claimed that non‐carbon dioxide greenhouse gases (NCGGs), such as methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated greenhouse gases, are significant contributors to climate change. Here we nvestigate emission estimates of methane and nitrous oxide from livestock and poultry production, which is recognized as a major source of those NCGGs, in Korea over the period of 1990 through 2010. Based on the data on livestock and poultry populations, emission estimates of methane and nitrous oxide are first derived based on the Tier 1 approach. Then, the Tier 2 approach is adopted to obtain emission estimates of methane and nitrous oxide from cattle, which are known to be the largest sources of these NCGGs and account for about 70% of emissions from livestock and poultry in Korea. The result indicates that the Tier 2 estimates of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from enteric fermentation and manure management are significantly different from the Tier 1 estimates over the analysis period.     

Impacts of climate change on Swiss biodiversity: An indicator taxa approach

We present a new indicator taxa approach to the prediction of climate change effects on biodiversity at the national level in Switzerland. As indicators, we select a set of the most widely distributed species that account for 95% of geographical variation in sampled species richness of birds, butterflies, and vascular plants. Species data come from a national program designed to monitor spatial and temporal trends in species richness. We examine some opportunities and limitations in using these data. We develop ecological niche models for the species as functions of both climate and land cover variables. We project these models to the future using climate predictions that correspond to two IPCC 3rd assessment scenarios for the development of ‘greenhouse’ gas emissions. We find that models that are calibrated with Swiss national monitoring data perform well in 10-fold cross-validation, but can fail to capture the hot-dry end of environmental gradients that constrain some species distributions. Models for indicator species in all three higher taxa predict that climate change will result in turnover in species composition even where there is little net change in predicted species richness. Indicator species from high elevations lose most areas of suitable climate even under the relatively mild B2 scenario. We project some areas to increase in the number of species for which climate conditions are suitable early in the current century, but these areas become less suitable for a majority of species by the end of the century. Selection of indicator species based on rank prevalence results in a set of models that predict observed species richness better than a similar set of species selected based on high rank of model AUC values. An indicator species approach based on selected species that are relatively common may facilitate the use of national monitoring data for predicting climate change effects on the distribution of biodiversity.     

RCPs气候情景下三江平原典型流域耕地动态模拟

选取三江平原典型流域挠力河流域为研究区,以1990、2002和2014年3期Landsat影像、DEM数据和社会经济统计资料等多源数据为基本信息源,结合3S技术,运用FLUS模型定量模拟代表性浓度路径情景系列(RCPs)下耕地动态变化特征。结果表明:24 a间挠力河流域的旱地面积变化幅度较小,水田面积持续增加,1990—2002年水田扩张剧烈,2002—2014年扩张速度趋于缓和;3个时点的旱地均沿东北-西南轴方向进行分布,主轴沿顺时针缓慢旋转,空间变化稳定,分布范围逐渐减小。水田沿东北-西南走向分布,1990—2002年其主轴逆时针旋转,后顺时针旋转至45.31°,整体分布较为离散,极化特征不明显;通过对比不同空间分辨率及时间尺度下模拟精度,确定最优模拟空间分辨率为200 m,最优模拟时间点为2038年;MESSAGE气候模式下,未来挠力河流域的旱地面积先减少后增加,水田继续维持扩张态势,2029年后面积将以2%速度逐年下降,其分布将更加聚集,主轴沿顺时针旋转,重心逐渐向东北方向进行偏移;AIM气候模式下,气候波动对水田的影响程度大于旱地,旱地面积持续缓慢增加,水田面积在波动中下降,空间分布的极化特征突出。     

木质林产品跨境交易下碳储量核算方法比较分析

国际贸易行为使得储存于采伐后木质林产品中的碳汇在各国间发生流动, 又由于对采伐后木质林产品的使用方式和最终用途的差异, 使得产品中碳汇的存续时间出现巨大的差异。如何对国际木质林产品跨境交易下的各国碳储量变化进行全面量化, 合理判断各国基于木质林产品消费方式的差异而对环境所造成的直接或间接影响, 从而明晰全球温室气体减排下各国的责任划分, 具有非常重要的意义。文中根据政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC)所提供的4种采伐后木质林产品碳储量核算方法, 分析各国对不同核算方法的立场及其背后的深层原因, 指出我国应该积极开展木质林产品跨境交易下碳储量核算方法的前沿跟踪研究, 以便未来在木质林产品碳汇计量谈判中掌握主动权从而有效维护国家利益。     

Carbon stocks and sequestration potentials of agricultural soils in the federal state of Baden‐Württemberg,SW Germany

Soil organic carbon (SOC) inventories are important tools for studying the effects of land‐use and climate change and evaluating climate‐change policies. A detailed inventory of SOC in the agricultural soils of the federal state of Baden‐Württemberg was therefore prepared based on the highest‐resolution geo‐referenced soil, land‐use, and climate data (BÜK200 inventory). In order to estimate the quality of different approaches, C inventories of the region were also prepared based on data from the National Inventory Report (UBA, 2003) and by applying the IPCC (1997) method to the two data sets. Finally, the BÜK200 inventory was used to estimate potentials of no‐tillage agriculture (NT) and peatland restoration to contribute to C sequestration and greenhouse‐gas (GHG)‐emission mitigation since both measures are discussed in this context. Scenario assumptions were change to NT on 40% of the cropland and restoration of 50% of cultivated peatlands within 20 years. On average, grasslands contained 9.5 kg C m^–2 to 0.3 m depth as compared to only 6.0 kg C m^–2 under cropland, indicating strong land‐use effects. The SOC content depended strongly on waterlogging and elevation, thus reflecting reduced C mineralization under aquic moisture regimes and low temperatures. Comparison of the BÜK200 inventory with the approach used for UBA (2003) showed high inconsistencies due to map resolution and SOC contents, whereas the IPCC method led to fairly good agreements. Results on the simulated effects of NT and peatland restoration suggested that 5%–14% of total agricultural GHG emissions could be abated with NT whereas peat restoration appeared to have a minor mitigation potential (0.2%–2.7%) because the total area of cultivated organic soils was too small to have larger impact.     

Considering sink strength to model crop production under elevated atmospheric CO2

Climatic changes and elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations will affect crop growth and production in the near future. Rising CO₂ concentration is a novel environmental aspect that should be considered when projections for future agricultural productivity are made. In addition to a reducing effect on stomatal conductance and crop transpiration, elevated CO₂ concentration can stimulate crop production. The magnitude of this stimulatory effect (‘CO₂ fertilization’) is subject of discussion. In this study, different calculation procedures of the generic crop model AquaCrop based on a foregoing theoretical framework and a meta-analysis of field responses, respectively, were evaluated against experimental data of free air CO₂ enrichment (FACE) environments. A flexible response of the water productivity parameter of the model to CO₂ concentration was introduced as the best option to consider crop sink strength and responsiveness to CO₂. By varying the response factor, differences in crop sink capacity and trends in breeding and management, which alter crop responsiveness, can be addressed. Projections of maize (Zea mays L.) and potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) production reflecting the differences in responsiveness were simulated for future time horizons when elevated CO₂ concentrations and climatic changes are expected. Variation in future yield potential associated with sink strength could be as high as 27% of the total production. Thus, taking into account crop sink strength and variation in responsiveness is equally relevant to considering climatic changes and elevated CO₂ concentration when assessing future crop production. Indicative values representing the crop responsiveness to elevated CO₂ concentration were proposed for all crops currently available in the database of AquaCrop as a first step in reducing part of the uncertainty involved in modeling future agricultural production.     

不同排放情景下大连地区21世纪气候变化预估

利用政府间气候变化委员会（IPCC）第4次评估报告提供的20多个气候系统模式的模拟结果,经过插值降尺度计算,以多模式集合模拟结果分析预估不同情景下（SRESA2、SRESA1B和SRESB1）大连地区21世纪气候变化。结果表明,21世纪大连气候总体有显著变暖、变湿趋势。年平均气温变暖趋势为2.45～3.46℃/100年,年降水增加趋势为每100年5.8%～16.3%。冬季变暖最明显,冬、春季降水增加较明显,21世纪前期秋季降水减少较明显。在A2、A1B和B1情景下,21世纪后期气温分别比常年偏高3.46、3.44和2.45℃,年降水分别比常年偏多16.30%、11.80%和5.79%。     

谷物联合收割机节能减排潜力评估和技术路径研究

分析了我国谷物联合收割机发展水平和燃油消耗整体水平,运用SPSS软件对谷物收割机的油耗水平进行了预测,初步统计出与国外发达国家的差距,并运用IPCC法评估出减排潜力。通过推广鉴定报告中燃油消耗指标定量分析和层次分析法定性研究相结合,分析了谷物联合收割机能耗的影响因素,找到各因素的改进空间及节能减排的技术路径。     

IPCC关于水资源风险的评估综述

综述了IPCC关于世界范围水资源风险的评估,以期对未来中国水资源风险问题提供背景和借鉴。     

全球气候变化及其影响、对策研究一对IPCCAR4的解读

气候变化问题被列全球十大环境问题之首．并日益成为国际社会的一个热门话题。根据全球气候变化的事实,分析出近50年气候变化的原因很可能主要是人类活动排放的温室气体造成的,并分析全球气候变化对农业、林业、生态系统、水资源、人类健康、工业、人居环境和社会的影响,提出适应和减缓气候变化的对策。