基于Copula 函数的边坡可靠度高效分析方法

将Copula函数与高效蒙特卡洛方法结合,提出了含相关随机变量的边坡可靠度高效分析方法。以两个岩质边坡稳定性问题为例验证了所提方法的有效性。结果表明,该方法相比于直接蒙特卡洛方法在保证边坡失效概率的准确性的同时计算效率更高。Copula函数可以构造出具有不同相关结构的岩土体参数的联合概率分布,与高效蒙特卡洛方法(即蒙特卡洛重要抽样方法和子集模拟)结合能高效地处理含多种相关随机变量的边坡可靠度计算问题,相比于现行的Nataf变换方法结果更能体现岩土边坡真实稳定性。此外,该方法也能高效地计算含有复杂的隐式功能函数的边坡可靠度,研究成果拓展了高效蒙特卡洛方法在边坡可靠度分析中的应用。     

规模化畜牧养殖对生态环境的破坏及防治

近年,畜牧养殖业蓬勃发展,过去的区域化散养已经基本不存在,养殖结构逐渐向集约化、一体化、规模化过渡,养殖规模也逐渐增大。养殖副产品肉、蛋、奶等极大满足了人们的生产生活,养殖中产生的尿液、粪污对生态环境造成极大影响。为促进规模化养殖实现绿色健康发展,该文分析规模化畜牧养殖对生态环境的破坏及防治措施。     

大尺度水文条件变化对建筑工程环

研究了大尺度水文条件变化对建筑环境的影响，分析了大尺度水文条件变化对建筑物维护、建筑设计、建筑施工、建筑材料等建筑环境的影响。依据不同的影响程度，提出了建筑物设计、运行维护与管理的对策与措施。     

乌梁素海湿地环境与资源地理信息系统的研究

本系统建立乌梁素海湿地基础地形库、生态库、资源库、工程档案库、遥感影像库等基础数据库及信息发布系统 ,使 GPS、GIS、RS紧密结合 ,同时实现了专家决策支持系统与地理信息系统之间的一体化集成。本系统可以为乌梁素海湿地生态治理与资源开发提供全方位的数据信息及其管理 ,对生态工程规划与实施方案进行优化设计 ,并提供实时监控服务。     

The urbanization of wildlife management: Social science, conflict, and decision making

Increasing urbanization of rural landscapes has created new challenges for wildlife management. In addition to changes in the physical landscape, urbanization has also produced changes in the socio-cultural landscape. The greater distancing from direct interaction with wildlife in urbanized societies has led to the emergence of a culture whose meanings for wildlife are less grounded in the utilitarian/instrumental orientation of rural agrarian systems. Urban perspectives on wildlife are comprised of more highly individualized emotional/symbolic values. This shift creates two problems with respect to managing wildlife in an urbanizing landscape. First the increased diversity in values and meanings increases the likelihood for social conflicts regarding wildlife management while at the same time making socially acceptable resolutions more intractable. This in turn requires fundamental changes in decision-making paradigms and the research approaches used to inform decision making. Second, as remaining rural communities feel the pressures of urbanization, wildlife conflicts become conflicts not just over wildlife but conflict over larger socio-political concepts such as equity, tradition, private property rights, government control, power, and acceptable forms of knowledge. This paper examines the wildlife management implications of changes associated with increasing urbanization and employs two case studies to illustrate these issues. First a study of a controversy over urban deer management provides insights into how to map conflicting values and search for common ground in an urban culture with increasingly individualistic values for wildlife. Specifically, the analysis illustrates that common ground may, at times, be found even among people with conflicting value systems. The second case study examined a ranching community faced with predator reintroduction. This case study illustrates tensions that occur when the community of interest (i.e. a national public) is broader than the community of place in which the problem occurs. In this latter situation, the debate centers around more than just different views about the rights of animals. It also entailed the rights of individuals and communities to decide their future. The conclusion discusses the need for wildlife institutions to adapt their underlying decision making philosophy including the way science is integrated into decision making processes in light of the changes in social context caused by urbanization.     

Challenges in developing and implementing a decision support systems (ETÇAP) in forest management planning: a case study in Honaz and Ibradı, Turkey

Decision support systems (DSSs) are indispensable tools in preparing a forest management plan for a better combination of multiple forest values. This study attempted to develop and explain a stand-based forest management DSS (Ecosystem-based multiple-use forest planning [ETÇAP]) comprising a traditional simulation, linear programming (LP), metaheuristics and geographic information system. The model consists of five submodels; traditional management approach to handle inventory data, an empirical growth and yield model, a simulation to conceptualize management actions, a LP technique to optimize resource allocation and a simulated annealing approach to directly create a spatially feasible harvest schedule. The ETÇAP model has been implemented in a comparative two case study areas; Denizli–Honaz and Akseki–Ibrad?. Both simulation and optimization models outperformed to the traditional management plan. The periodical change of growing stock, allowable cuts, carbon sequestration and water production are used as performance indicators. The results showed that more amount of wood could be harvested over time compared to traditional level of harvesting. It could be concluded that various management strategies allowed managers to stimulate more decision options for better outputs through intertemporal trade-offs of management interventions as the model provided tools to quantify forest dynamics over time and space. Challenges exist to establish the functional relationships between forest structure and values for better quantification and integration into the management plans.     

海水中规模化培养西藏拟溞的技术优化研究

为了给北方海水鱼虾蟹类育苗增添一种新的生物活饵料,利用循环水培养装置研究了西藏拟溞Daphniopsis tibetana Sars在稀释海水(盐度为18~20)中规模化培养的技术工艺参数,即起始放养密度、充纯氧和日采收率。结果表明:起始放养密度对西藏拟溞种群增长和日产量影响显著(P0.05),不同起始放养密度(200、550、900、1250 ind./L)培养试验中,放养密度为1250ind./L时,培养第33天时种群密度达最高,为(9500±550.73)ind./L,平均日产量为(125.00±8.35)g/(m3·d);充纯氧与充空气相比较,充纯氧能显著提高种群密度和日产量(P0.05),当放养密度为1250 ind./L、充纯氧时,西藏拟溞种群密度最高达(11 600±560.45)ind./L,平均日产量为(156.82±8.49)g/(m3·d);日采收率对西藏拟溞的种群增长和日产量也有显著影响(P0.05),日采收率为20%时最佳,放养密度为1250ind./L、日采收率为20%时,西藏拟溞种群密度最高为(12 900±995.04)ind./L,平均日产量为(176.52±15.08)g/(m3·d)。     

基于机器学习算法的土壤有机质 质量比估算

为快速高效地估测干旱、半干旱地区土壤有机质(soil organic matter, SOM)质量比,提出了一种结合竞争适应重加权法(CARS)和随机森林(RF)的估测模型.以内陆干旱区艾比湖流域为研究区,测定土壤高光谱反射率和SOM质量比,经预处理后,利用CARS对原始光谱(R)、一阶导数(R′)、吸光度(log(1/R))及吸光度一阶导数［log(1/R)］′4种光谱变量的可见-近红外光谱进行筛选,并结合RF算法,建立全谱段RF模型与CARS-RF模型.结果表明,基于CARS方法对光谱进行变量筛选后,得出4种光谱变量的优选变量集个数分别为35,26,34和121;在4种光谱变量中,R′和［log(1/R)］′的SOM估测模型精度较高,以［log(1/R)］′为基础数据获得的模型精度最高;CARS-RF模型精度优于全谱段RF模型,模型验证集决定系数(R²)、均方根误差(RMSE)、相对分析误差(RPD)分别为0.881,6.438 g/kg和2.177.该研究在预处理的基础上通过变量优选,应用较少的变量个数获得较高的估测精度,为干旱、半干旱区SOM高光谱估测提供了适宜高效的方法.     

欧洲水培叶菜机械规模化生产系统

针对水培叶菜规模化生产,介绍了欧洲水培叶菜自动化生产装备系统与技术。首先,说明水培技术高效循环生产、避免土壤环境污染的优势,论述了水培叶菜的主要作业流程。基于水培叶菜作业流程,通过实物图片介绍了欧洲水培叶菜生产中基质处理、精量播种、种苗移植、叶菜收获和生产资材自动输送等环节装备和技术。对比国内水培蔬菜的生产模式与具体国情,提出了研学欧洲先进的生产作业装备技术和物流化生产作业思想理念,结合我国水培蔬菜生产模式,优化完善叶菜丸粒化精量播种技术,开发研制叶菜种苗移植设备,针对不同水培叶菜生产企业及生产方式,量身定制开发设计物流化生产输送系统,达到提高生产效率、降低劳动强度、减少生产劳动力的目的,有效提高我国水培蔬菜生产的竞争力。     

基于相对熵排序的建筑工程项目投标决策

投标决策是施工企业面对的重要问题．在建筑工程项目投标问题上，先建立风险指标体系，再结合层次分析法和信息熵法求得风险指标的综合权重，然后借助相对熵排序法，对各个方案进行综合评价，得到有效反映各方案差异的评价模型，通过对比可知此法可行有效，且灵敏度高．