水资源核算及对GDP的修正——以中国东部经济发达地区为例

对中国东部经济发达地区水资源核算的结果表明 ,以GDP为主要衡量指标的现行国民经济核算体系过高地估计了该地区经济的发展水平。扣除水资源价值损失 ,1994～ 1997年区域GDP平均下降 5 5 8% ,这意味着东部经济发达地区经济增长存在着较为严重的环境负债     

General Nexus Between Water and Electricity Use and Its Implication for Urban Agricultural Sustainability:A Case Study of Shenzhen, South China

Although water and energy resources are well-recognized concerns regarding economic and social development sustainability, little specific research has focused on both water and energy problems at the same time. This study analyzed the water and electricity-use patterns in Shenzhen, South China during 2001-2009. A curve regression method was used to examine the relationship between water and electricity use per gross domestic product (GDP) in Shenzhen and its three sectors, i.e., agriculture, industry & construction, and residential life & services. Results showed that agriculture only covered less than 10% of water and electricity use in Shenzhen, while industry & construction and residential life & services accounted for more than 90% of water and electricity use in Shenzhen, which coincided with the city’s industrial structure. The water and electricity use per GDP in agriculture was the biggest among three sectors in Shenzhen during 2001-2009, which means inefficiency of water and electricity use in agriculture. Due to transitioning to advanced materials and manufacturing, both water and electricity use per GDP in industry & construction decreased during 2001-2009 and their utilization efficiencies gradually increased over time. The same held true for those in residential life & services transformed toward modern business, creative culture, finance services, etc. Derived from the survival of the fittest in competing for limited water and electricity resources, agriculture in Shenzhen has been gradually substituted by industry & construction and residential life & services, with much higher efficiencies of water and electricity use. And traditional agriculture will not be sustainable in the process of urbanization and industrialization, except high-tech intensive agriculture with low water and energy cost. Furthermore, by means of curve regression, we found that there was a significant quadratic relationship between water use per GDP and electricity use per GDP in the entire city and its three sectors. Suitable industrial transformation and advancement was a very effective way to save water and energy for modern cities. This can provide some reference for systematic planning and design of water and electricity allocation and use in agriculture, industry & construction and residential life & services in a city.     

河北省耕地面积变化与经济增长关系分析

采用河北省1978-2006年的统计资料,分析了河北省耕地面积变化以及经济增长过程,选取耕地面积和人均GDP为指标,定量分析了耕地面积和经济增长之间的关系。结果表明,1978年以来河北省经济迅速增长,与此同时耕地面积却呈总体下降趋势;随着人均GDP的增加,耕地面积变化呈乘幂减少的趋势。在此基础上提出了继续强化耕地资源管理,尤其是强化建设占用耕地管理的建议。     

乌鲁木齐市大气环境质量库兹涅茨曲线分析

通过把乌鲁木齐市3种大气污染物(SO2,NOX,TSP)排放浓度与人均GDP值(近25年的数据)进行1～5阶的线性回归模拟,结果显示:3阶线性回归的模拟效果最好,故认为乌鲁木齐市大气环境污染物排放浓度与人均GDP增长之间的回归模型,符合环境库兹涅茨三次回归拟合曲线特征.     

长沙市建设用地供应与经济社会发展关系定量研究

建设用地供应是一个庞大而又复杂的系统,不仅仅是土地本身的问题,同时还与人口、社会、经济、政治等因素紧密相关。合理的建设用地供应不但能够促进土地集约利用、保护耕地,而且能够改善城乡居民生产生活条件、促进产业结构调整、拉动区域经济发展。基于此认识,根据长沙市1995～2013年统计数据,运用Eviews6.0软件,通过单位根检验、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验探讨建设用地供应与经济社会发展间的相关关系,重点探讨建设用地与GDP、城市化率的关系。结果表明:建设用地供应与GDP之间存在双向因果关系,而与城市化率之间只有单向因果关系。     

基于多国面板数据对通货膨胀率和经济增长率关系的探究

稳增长和低通胀的结合是大多数国家宏观经济政策的核心目标,这二者的关系自然成为经济学家兴趣和争论的焦点。尽管相关的研究和争论仍在继续,但并没有产生令人们广泛信服的结论。实际上,高通胀对经济增长率的影响还有一条重要的途径：高通胀往往伴随着更高的波动性,在理性预期的非完全性、价格粘性的市场条件下,通胀率的高波动性使准确预期更困难,因而永久性地改变了人们的消费、储蓄、投资等经济行为,降低了资本存量,进而损害了经济增长率。总而言之,在现实经济是非完全市场的条件下,并非高通胀本身而是随之而来的高波动性损害了经济增长。     

全州县域经济增长个案分析

本研究回顾了全州经济发展历史,分析全州1950年至2009年这60年间经济取得的成就和存在的问题,对全州经济与全国经济发展水平进行比较,找出全州经济与全国经济发展水平的差距.在分析比较全州经济历史的基础上,提出全州工业化和城市化相结合的发展机制,探索适合全州经济增长的路径.     

外商对华投资的正负效应分析

利用统计学的分析方法,分析了我国利用外资的正、负面效应。     

International Comparison of the Relationship between Outflow FDI and Economic Growth and Its Inspiration to China

International direct investment improved the world economic development greatly, and the level of capital transaction of a country indicates its degree of integration into world economy. In China, there exists a serious unbalance between outflow FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) and inflow FDI, and the former is of a extremely small scale. The relationship between outflow FDI and a country's economic development, as well as the relationship between outflow FDI and TFP (Total Factor Productivity) growth rate is analyzed with international comparison and econometrics model. The results show that a obvious positive correlation between outflow FDI and GNP exists, and outfolw FDI of a country improves its GNP growth a lot. Meanwhile, as to the contribution elasticity to TFP, outflwo FDI is much higher than international trade. It is revealed that China not only has necessities, but also has great potentialities to invest in foreign countries. Finally some suggestions are put forward.     

我国农产品加工业“十一五”发展状况及“十二五”发展趋势浅析

"十一五"期间,我国农产品加工业快速发展,平均增长速度为24.18%,成为国民经济中最具活力的产业之一,在促进农民就业和农业增效等方面发挥了积极的作用,有力促进了农业产业化和农业的可持续发展。根据1993年—2009年《中国统计年鉴》提供的数据,比较分析认为按照目前的发展速度,我国农产品加工业有望在"十二五"期间达到发展中国家的领先水平,接近工业化国家的中下等水平。