西鄂尔多斯珍稀濒危植物四合木种群分布格局分析

四合木(Tetraena mongolica)是国家二级保护植物,为古老残遗种。为了揭示不同四合木种群的结构、种内相互作用以及对环境的适应策略,本研究以西鄂尔多斯地区四合木为研究对象,采用大小结构法将四合木植株划分为3个大小级(1级,d≤40 cm; 2级,40 cm80 cm。d为株高×冠幅长×冠幅宽的立方根),运用点格局分析法对各级植株的空间格局及关联性进行分析。结果表明：3个样地中的四合木均以2级为主,年龄结构为稳定型,反映出样地环境的稳定性;3个样地四合木1级植株在中小尺度均呈集群分布,其他均以随机分布为主;1级和2级植株多呈现出显著正关联,3级植株在中小尺度均与其他2个级呈显著负关联关系,反映出高龄级对其他龄级的抑制作用。研究结果为科学地保护四合木种群提供依据。     

Effects of source and level of dietary neutral detergent fiber on feed intake, ruminal fermentation, ruminal digestion in situ, and total tract digestion in beef cattle fed pelleted concentrates with or without supplemental roughage.

The effects of source and level of dietary NDF on intake, ruminal digestion in situ, ruminal fermentation, and total tract digestion were evaluated in Hereford steers using a replicated 5 x 5 Latin square design. Diets contained 62 to 64% TDN and included 1) 80% control concentrate (contained pelleted ground grains) and 20% timothy hay (traditional diet), 2) 80% control concentrate and 20% alfalfa cubes, 3) 90% control concentrate and 10% cubes, 4) a completely pelleted diet using corn cobs as the primary NDF source, and 5) 80% textured (rolled instead of ground grains) concentrate and 20% hay. Dry matter intake differed (P less than .05) between the traditional and cube diets due to limited acceptance of alfalfa cubes. Increased (P less than .05) ruminal osmolality, total VFA, and NH3 N and lower (P less than .01) ruminal pH in steers fed corn cob and cube diets relative to steers fed the traditional diet were due to preferential consumption of concentrate over supplemental roughage and the resultant rapid fermentation of concentrates. Potentially degradable DM in the traditional diet exceeded (P less than .06) all other diets, resulting in the increased (P less than .10) extent of DM disappearance despite a slower (P less than .05) rate of DM disappearance. Rate of NDF disappearance and all in situ starch disappearance parameters were similar between the traditional, corn cob, and cube diets. All ruminal digestion parameters involving NDF disappearance were similar between hay diets and between cube diets, whereas rate and extent of starch disappearance differed (P less than .05) between hay diets. Although formulation of diets with different sources of dietary NDF did not affect total tract digestion of nutrients, nutrient availability and ruminal fermentation were altered due to dietary differences in sources of dietary NDF and preferential selection of feedstuffs by steers.     

Employing a Monte Carlo algorithm in expectation maximization restricted maximum likelihood estimation of the linear mixed model

Multiple‐trait and random regression models have multiplied the number of equations needed for the estimation of variance components. To avoid inversion or decomposition of a large coefficient matrix, we propose estimation of variance components by Monte Carlo expectation maximization restricted maximum likelihood (MC EM REML) for multiple‐trait linear mixed models. Implementation is based on full‐model sampling for calculating the prediction error variances required for EM REML. Performance of the analytical and the MC EM REML algorithm was compared using a simulated and a field data set. For field data, results from both algorithms corresponded well even with one MC sample within an MC EM REML round. The magnitude of the standard errors of estimated prediction error variances depended on the formula used to calculate them and on the MC sample size within an MC EM REML round. Sampling variation in MC EM REML did not impair the convergence behaviour of the solutions compared with analytical EM REML analysis. A convergence criterion that takes into account the sampling variation was developed to monitor convergence for the MC EM REML algorithm. For the field data set, MC EM REML proved far superior to analytical EM REML both in computing time and in memory need.     

内蒙古鄂温克族自治旗冻土深度变化特征分析

利用描述分析和累积距平的方法对内蒙古鄂温克地区1981--2010年30年的最大冻土深度进行分析。结果表明，鄂温克地区最大冻土深度多年平均为244 cm，最大值出现在2010年，为288 cm；最小值出现在1983年，为222 cm；两者相差66cm。最大冻土深度呈逐渐增大趋势。     

不同载畜率下短花针茅草原土壤水分空间异质性的分析

以短花针茅(Stipa breviflora)草原为研究对象,采用经典统计学和地统计学的方法对不同载畜率样地(不放牧、轻度放牧、中度放牧和重度放牧)的土壤水分进行描述性统计、半变异函数及空间插值分析,旨在研究载畜率对荒漠草原土壤水分空间异质性的影响。结果表明,01)各处理的土壤含水量均随载畜率的增大而逐渐升高,各处理的变异系数(CV)在7.29%~9.79%,均呈弱变异性。2)半变异函数分析显示各处理的土壤水分含量均呈指数模型,不放牧的结构比为74.4%,属于中等程度变异。轻度、中度、重度放牧处理的结构比分别为94.4%、91.2%和96.0%,具有强烈的空间自相关性;3)利用克里格插值法对各样地的未知采样点进行插值分析,发现重度放牧处理土壤水分的空间变异程度最大,不放牧处理土壤水分的空间变异程度最低。所以,载畜率对土壤水分的空间分布有明显的影响。     

基于改进的CASA模型模拟草原综合顺序分类体系各类的最大光能利用率

植被最大光能利用率是净初级生产力(NPP)估算的一个重要参数,对它的大小一直存在争议。利用遥感数据、气象数据和中国区域NPP实测资料,依据基于草原综合顺序分类(CSCS)改进的CASA模型,采用改进的最小二乘法对中国41类草地的最大光能利用率(εmax)进行了模拟,并通过与他人估算的光能利用率(ε)进行比较来验证εmax的可靠性和准确性。结果表明:此次研究的ε值略高于其他的研究结果。其主要原因有:ε最大值和最小值之间的跨度较大,从而使得平均值较高;由于缺乏实测数据,个别草地类型的ε估算值较高,导致了本研究ε值偏高;各研究采用的分类体系不同,模型和数据来源不同,从而导致结果存在差异。本研究中的εmax根据实测数据模拟得到,今后需进一步收集实测数据,对参数εmax的合理取值进行调整。     

Spatial Predictions of Cover Attributes of Rangeland Ecosystems Using Regression Kriging and Remote Sensing

Sound rangeland management requires accurate information on rangeland condition over large landscapes. A commonly applied approach to making spatial predictions of attributes related to rangeland condition (e.g., shrub or bare ground cover) from remote sensing is via regression between field and remotely sensed data. This has worked well in some situations but has limited utility when correlations between field and image data are low and it does not take advantage of all information contained in the field data. I compared spatial predictions from generalized least-squares (GLS) regression to a geostatistical interpolator, regression kriging (RK), for three rangeland attributes (percent cover of shrubs, bare ground, and cheatgrass [Bromus tectorum L.]) in a southern Idaho study area. The RK technique combines GLS regression with spatial interpolation of the residuals to improve predictions of rangeland condition attributes over large landscapes. I employed a remote-sensing technique, object-based image analysis (OBIA), to segment Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper images into polygons (i.e., objects) because previous research has shown that OBIA yields higher image-to-field data correlations and can be used to select appropriate scales for analysis. Spatial dependence, the decrease in autocorrelation with increasing distance, was strongest for percent shrub cover (samples autocorrelated up to a distance [i.e., range] of 19 098 m) but present in all three variables (range of 12 646 m and 768 m for bare ground and cheatgrass cover, respectively). As a result, RK produced more accurate results than GLS regression alone for all three attributes when predicted versus observed values of each attribute were measured by leave-one-out cross validation. The results of RK could be used in assessments of rangeland conditions over large landscapes. The ability to create maps quantifying how prediction confidence changes with distance from field samples is a significant benefit of regression kriging and makes this approach suitable for landscape-level management planning.     

新疆地区降水分布的空间插值方法比较

利用新疆及周边地区的154个气象站点资料,采用反距离权重法(IDW)、普通克里金法(Kriging)、协同克里格法(Cokriging)、贝叶斯法(EBK)和ANUSPLIN软件5种方法,对新疆地区1995-2004年10年间的月降水量空间插值模拟结果进行了交叉检验。结果表明,在新疆地区,5种方法的插值精度表现为ANUSPLIN>Cokriging>EBK>Kriging>IDW,并随月份有所变化,平均绝对误差(MAE)和均方根误差(RMSE)表现为秋冬两季误差低于春夏两季,平均相对误差(MRE)的值在春季和秋季较高。与已建立的新疆的降水量分布格局进行比较发现,ANUSPLIN兼顾了插值曲面的准确度与平滑度,它较为准确地反映了新疆地区降水空间分布的特征,EBK法在4月和7月插值结果与实际偏差较大,而1月和10月插值效果较好,Cokriging法插值结果均质性较差,并不能反映新疆实际降水的空间分布。Kriging法在10月插值效果较好外,在其他3个月的插值效果不好,IDW法的最大值或者最小值主要分布在台站周围,与实际情况相差较远。     

基于SPOT-5卫星影像的灌区作物识别

高分辨率卫星影像是作物精确分类和评估的重要数据源,在农作物种植规划、估产等领域具有重要的应用价值。本研究利用分辨率为2.5 m的SPOT 5影像分析张掖市盈科灌区的作物分布状况,同时分别生成分辨率为10和30 m的影像,用于尺度验证。最终得到研究区作物分类图,所用方法主要有最小距离法、马氏距离、最大似然法、光谱角制图仪（SAM）和支持向量机（SVM）。Kappa系数分析表明,最大似然法和SVM的分类效果好于其它分类器,分别为0.871 9和0.862 5,但这两种方法的统计量无明显区别;分类图精度评价表明,基于最大似然法的分类图总体精度最高,为90.6%;随像元空间尺度的增加,分类精度未产生明显变化。研究结果表明,最大似然法和SVM技术可以与SPOT 5影像结合,用于作物类型识别和作物面积估算。     

高寒草地不同坡向金露梅种群空间分布格局研究

采用Ripley的k（d）函数分析方法及群落学调查法,对祁连山高寒草地不同坡向金露梅（Potentilla fruticosa）种群的空间格局分布特征进行了研究。结果表明,金露梅种群高度、密度和盖度阴坡〉平地〉阳坡,金露梅种群分枝数阳坡〉平地〉阴坡。金露梅种群的空间分布格局表现出与尺度密切相关的变化趋势,在阳坡,金露梅种群在较小尺度上表现为聚集分布,较大尺度上表现为随机分布;在阴坡,种群在所有尺度上表现为聚集分布,且聚集强度在降低;在平地,种群空间分布格局表现为均匀—随机的分布模式。坡向因素影响下的金露梅种群空间分布格局发生了较大转变,体现了植物种群的环境响应机制。     

SONOGRAPHIC ESTIMATION OF PLEURAL FLUID VOLUME IN DOGS

The aim of this study was to find an ultrasonographic method to estimate pleural fluid volume in dogs. Nine canine cadavers of mixed breed were studied. Using a transsternal view, linear measurements from the pleural surface of the midline of the sternebra at the center of the heart to the furthest ventrolateral point of both right and left lung edges were recorded. Isotonic saline was injected using ultrasound guidance into both right and left pleural spaces and the measurements were repeated using standard increments until 1000 ml total volume was reached. No relationship was identified between mean distance and injected volume up to 100 ml. Thereafter, the mean distance increased in an approximately linear relationship with the cube root of fluid volume. There was a high correlation ( r ≥0.899) between the ultrasonographic measurement and fluid volume within individual dogs, but it was not possible to produce a useful equation to calculate absolute pleural fluid volume for new subjects. Nevertheless, ultrasonography may be used to semiquantitatively monitor pleural fluid volume, so that a decrease in the mean linear measurement obtained reflects a decrease in the total fluid volume.     

Paddock Size Mediates the Heterogeneity of Grazing Impacts on Vegetation

Domestic herbivores’ effect on vegetation is spatially heterogeneous, being one of the major causes of forage resources degradation. It has been proposed that paddock size controls grazing impact’s heterogeneity because as size decreases, herbivores’ utilization is spatially more even. However, this has not been critically evaluated in commercial-scale paddocks isolating paddock size effects from other factors influencing the interaction between herbivores and vegetation. Here we assessed how paddock size mediates the heterogeneity of continuous sheep grazing effects on vegetation, at constant stocking rate in Patagonian steppes. We selected three small (ca. 110 ha) and three large (ca. 1 100 ha) paddocks dominated by the same plant community. All paddocks contained a single watering point and presented similar shape. Total and specific plant cover, vegetation patchiness, population size distribution of dominant grass species, plant morphology, and sheep feces density were estimated at increasing distances from watering points. Relationships between vegetation variables and distance from the watering point were in most cases asymptotic exponential, although responses generally differed between small and large paddocks. In small paddocks, vegetation variables mostly reached a plateau at a short distance from the watering point (~ 200 m). Instead, in large paddocks, the changes in vegetation variables were larger and more gradual, and reached a plateau at much greater distances (~ 2 000 m). Vegetation heterogeneity throughout the paddock was lower in small than large paddocks. Our findings suggest that paddock size mediates the spatial pattern of grazing effects on vegetation. Reducing paddock size decreases grazing impacts spatial heterogeneity, which makes plant-animal interactions more predictable and might improve forage utilization efficiency.     

Effects of protein concentration on responses to dietary tryptophan by chicks

1. Chicks were fed from 4 to 18 d on 40 diets containing all combinations of 8 crude protein (CP) concentrations (from 160 to 300 g/kg) and 5 tryptophan concentrations (from 7.5 to 13.5 g tryptophan/kg CP). 2. At each protein concentration there were responses in growth rate and in efficiency of food utilisation to supplementation with tryptophan. Curves were fitted to estimate the maximum response at each protein concentration. 3. The amounts of tryptophan required (g/kg) for maximum growth and maximum food efficiency were each linear functions of dietary protein concentration. The chick's requirement for tryptophan can be expressed as 12 g/kg CP. 4. It is concluded that a fixed ratio of tryptophan to protein should be specified in practical diet formulation, rather than a minimum dietary concentration of tryptophan.     

通辽国家基本气象观测站近50年最大冻土深度变化特征及其与地温和气温的相关分析

利用描述分析、线性趋势拟合和累积距平方法对通辽国家基本气象观测站(以下简称通辽站)1962—2011年50年的年最大冻土深度、冬季(10月—翌年2月)各月平均最低气温和平均最低地面温度资料进行了对比分析。结果表明,通辽站最大冻土深度多年平均可达131.7cm,最大值出现在1977年2月,最小值出现在2007年2月,两者相差1.4倍;在全球气候变暖的大背景下,通辽站最大冻土深度的年代际变化特征明显,在20世纪60—70年代末期,最大冻土深度呈逐渐增大趋势,80年代以后该值逐年减小;在50年时间尺度上,通辽站最大冻土深度存在2次突变过程,突变时间点在1971/1972年冬季和2005/2006年冬季。该地区最大冻土深度的变化与冬季平均最低地温和平均最低气温的变化呈显著的负相关关系,气温和地温低则冻土层厚,否则冻土层薄,最大冻土深度出现的最大值月份比最低气温和地温出现月要滞后1～2个月。     

A comparative study of some estimation methods for parameters and effects of outliers in simple regression model for research on small ruminants

This paper investigated estimation methods: least squares method, M-estimation, Theil method, Least Absolute Deviation method to estimate the parameters of simple regression model in situation that the underlying assumptions of least squares estimation are untenable because of outliers. To compare these methods, the effect of chest girth on body weights of German Farm × Hair crossbred kids at weaning period was examined. Chest girth of kids is independent variable and body weight at weaning period is dependent variable in the model. Mean square error and R² value are used to evaluate estimator performance. Because two observation values are outliers and the model estimated from this method have minimum mean square error and maximum R² value for different sample sizes (n = 10, 20, 30 or 50), M-estimation method is proposed to predict the parameters of the model.     

Cut-off points for aggreate herd testing in the presence of disease clustering and correlation of test errors

In order to test if disease is present in a large herd, an investigator will often subject only a small sample of animals to a fallible diagnostic test. The herd is declared positive for disease if the number of test-positive animals is greater than or equal to a previously chosen cut-off value. Such a test, called an aggregate test, has a sensitivity and specificity that depends on the sample size, the cut-off point and the sensitivity and specificity of the individual test. It also depends on the distribution of the disease among the herds being tested and on the fact that factors such as herd-level seropositivity may cause some herds to be more prone to testing errors than others. In this paper, we use the beta-binomial distribution to model all these factors and thereby calculate and tabulate aggregate test sensitivities and specificities under a variety of conditions. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve methodology permits the choice of optimum sample sizes and cut-off values. We also investigate the situation in which an investigator may be willing to miss detecting the disease if the prevalence in the herd is low. A compiled FORTRAN program for the calculation of aggregate test cut-off point properties, including positive and negative predictive values, is available from the authors.     

Results of epidemic simulation modeling to evaluate strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease

OBJECTIVE: To assess estimated effectiveness of control and eradication procedures for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in a region of California. SAMPLE POPULATION: 2,238 herds and 5 sale yards in Fresno, Kings, andTulare counties of California. PROCEDURE: A spatial stochastic model was used to simulate hypothetical epidemics of FMD for specified control scenarios that included a baseline eradication strategy mandated by USDA and supplemental control strategies of slaughter or vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of infected herds, slaughter of only high-risk animals identified by use of a model simulation, and expansion of infected and surveillance zones. RESULTS: Median number of herds affected varied from 1 to 385 (17% of all herds), depending on type of index herd and delay in diagnosis of FMD. Percentage of herds infected decreased from that of the baseline eradication strategy by expanding the designated infected area from 10 to 20 km (48%), vaccinating within a 50-km radius of an infected herd (41%), slaughtering the 10 highest-risk herds for each infected herd (39%), and slaughtering all animals within 5 km of an infected herd (24%). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results for the model provided a means of assessing the relative merits of potential strategies for control and eradication of FMD should it enter the US livestock population. For the study region, preemptive slaughter of highest-risk herds and vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of an infected herd consistently decreased size and duration of an epidemic, compared with the baseline eradication strategy.     

典型草原区放牧绵羊体质量动态变化特征分析

根据锡林浩特国家气候观象台试验牧场群体放牧绵羊1987-2007年21年监测资料,对典型草原区放牧绵羊体质量动态变化进行了研究。结果表明：绵羊体质量年变化呈“余弦”曲线,最低值出现在4月末,最高值出现在10月末。暖季绵羊体质量平均增量0.086 3 kg/d,冷季绵羊体质量平均减量0.049 6 kg/d。灰色关联度分析表明,影响典型草原区放牧绵羊体增量的主要气象因素排序是：温度>风速>气压>湿度>日照>降水,其中温度和风速是影响放牧绵羊体增量的主要限制性因素。秋季日均温度-2.9 ℃是当地放牧绵羊体质量下降的临界温度,春季日均温度10.7 ℃是当地放牧绵羊体质量上升的临界温度。     

Quantitative estimation of intestinal dilation as a predictor of obstruction in the dog

Mechanical obstruction is a major differential diagnosis for dogs presented with gastrointestinal problems. Small intestinal dilation is a cardinal sign of obstruction but its recognition depends upon the observer's experience and anecdotally derived parameters for normal small intestinal diameter. The objective of this study was to formulate a quantitative index for normal intestinal diameter and evaluate its usefulness in predicting small intestinal obstruction. The material consisted of survey abdominal radiographs of 50 normal dogs, 44 cases of intestinal obstruction and 86 patients which subsequently had an upper gastrointestinal examination. A ratio of the maximum small intestinal diameter (SI) and the height of the body of the fifth lumbar vertebra at its narrowest point (L5) was used, and a logistic regression model employed to determine the probability of an obstruction existing with varying degrees of intestinal dilation. A value of 1·6 for SI/L5 is recommended as the upper limit of normal intestinal diameter for clinical use. The model showed that obstruction is very unlikely if the SI/L5 value is less than this. Higher values were significantly associated with obstruction.     

黄河源头高寒草甸夏季土壤水热特征及相互关系研究

根据青藏高原玛多县2010年6-8月夏季每天24个时次的土壤温湿度、热通量资料,分析了黄河源头高寒草甸夏季土壤温湿度的时空分布特征以及相互作用、土壤温度和热通量的关系;利用Penman公式计算了日蒸散量,分析了与气候因子的相关性。结果表明,黄河源头高寒草甸土壤湿度在夏季各月的日变化上表现出一致的变化趋势,各月、各土层土壤湿度的变化基本一致;各层土壤湿度最高平均值为17.58 m³/m³,出现在7月4日,最低平均值为6.83 m³/m³出现在8月9日;6-8月10 cm土壤湿度最大平均值为15.26 m³/m³,出现在16-17时、最小平均值为14.49 m³/m³,出现在8时;30 cm土壤湿度最大平均值为15.56 m³/m³,出现在22时、0时,最小平均值为15.32 m³/m³,出现在11-13时;夏季各月土壤温度在各层变化趋势一致,土壤温度的梯度变化对土壤湿度变化有很大影响;各层土壤温度最高平均值为17.59℃,出现在7月底8月初,最低平均值为4.57℃,出现在6月1日;通过对土壤温度和热通量的分析,得出:6-8月10和30 cm土壤热通量变化呈正弦曲线,10 cm土壤热通量震荡明显,最大平均值为67.35 W/m²,最小平均值为-21.62 W/m²,而30 cm土壤热通量变化相对平缓,最大平均值为21.33 W/m²,最小平均值为-2.73 W/m²;土壤温度的变化较土壤热通量变化滞后,当土壤热通量下降的时候,土壤温度也在下降;当热通量负值的时候,下层土壤释放热量,是热源;当为正值的时候,下层土壤吸收热量,是热汇。与气候因子的相关分析中得出,对日蒸散量影响显著的气候因子为风速,相关系数为0.8,在0.01水平上显著相关,风速和空气相对湿度是影响日蒸散量变化的主要原因。