近50年来新疆莎车县气候变化特征及其成因

利用莎车县气象站1956-2005年气温和降水观测资料,以回归分析、趋势线分析、5年滑动平均等方法,探讨莎车县气温和降水的年际变化、季节变化及变化特征。结果显示:①近50年来,莎车县年平均气温总体呈增加趋势,线性倾向率为0.19℃/10 a。从20世纪50年代中期至60年代末期,气温在平均值附近波动降低,自70年代以来波动较大,并明显升高,气温波动基本上与我国西北地区气温变化趋势一致。年内气温变化存在季节差异,秋、冬、春三个季节气温均呈上升趋势,夏季的气温呈下降趋势,其中,秋和冬两季对全年平均气温增加贡献较大。②近50年来,莎车县年降水量总体呈增长趋势,年均降水量线性倾向率约为7.44 mm/10 a。20世纪50年代中期至70年代末期年降水量在多年平均值附近波动,没有明显增减。自80年代以来年际降水波动较大,而且变湿趋势较明显。年内降水量变化有明显的季节差异,除了冬季外,夏、春、秋三个季节降水量均呈增长趋势,增长幅度从大到小依次是夏季、春季和秋季,其中,夏、春两季对全年降水量增长贡献较大,秋季降水贡献较小。     

基于小波分析的巴尔喀什湖水位变化特征及其影响因素

根据巴尔喀什湖年平均湖水位、伊犁河中下游径流以及流域气象数据,采用线性倾向率、小波时频分析等方法,研究了巴尔喀什湖1880—2016年平均水位变化特征及规律,针对湖泊水量平衡分析得出伊犁河下游径流量是控制湖水位变化的关键因子,通过交叉小波进一步分析了影响湖水位变化的各种气象因素。结果表明:①巴尔喀什湖水位在2002年左右发生了突变,并存在以83 a为中心尺度的主周期,该尺度下水位变化的平均周期为54 a左右,经历了3个丰枯转换时期,今后将逐步进入枯水期。②交叉小波分析表明,自然状态下降水是影响湖水位变化的主要原因;径流与气温的共振周期相位在20世纪80年代末发生了由负向正的转变,指示气温升高对湖水位的综合影响表现为由蒸发损耗转变为融水补给增加。③大气环流因子通过控制降水,从而影响研究区内入湖径流和湖水位变化,北大西洋涛动(NAO)相较南方涛动(SOI)与径流的关系更为紧密,对湖水位变化的影响较大。     

短命植物层群落年内变化与水热条件的关系

在新疆北部准噶尔荒漠的莫索湾地区,通过样方调查记录了2008年早春季节短命植物萌发到消失的群落特征变化,并结合同时段冬春季节的气温、降水等资料,分析了短命植物层群落年内变化与水热条件之间的密切关系。结果表明:早春季节首次降水的时间和降水量是决定短命植物萌动生长的主要因素,而出苗后的降水状况将显著影响当年的群落外貌特征,干旱高温季节到来的时间将决定短命植物最终的生活周期。此外,短命植物生长发育对偶然阵性降水具有极高的敏感性和适应性。     

石羊河流域径流量分布特征及对气候变化的响应——以西营河为例

利用1961-2009年石羊河流域西营河径流量和气象资料,分析了近49年来径流量变化趋势、年内分配特征及与气象因素的内在关系.结果表明:近49年来西营河径流量总体呈减少趋势,冬、夏季减幅大于秋、春季;90年代四季径流量衰减明显,特别是年、春、夏季径流出现明显突变;年径流量补给主要以汛期雨水补给为主,雨水补给比例在逐渐增加,冬季积雪融水对径流量的补给比例在减少;流域内降水量呈较小的增加趋势,但是夏季降水增幅不明显.气温呈明显升高趋势,特别是冬季气温趋势系数最大,受其影响蒸发量均呈增大趋势;径流量与6-9月降水量呈显著正相关,但与7、8月气温、蒸发呈显著负相关.分析了未来气温、降水变化在不同情形下对径流量的可能影响,表明气温对径流量的负效应占据着主导作用,汛期气温的升高且伴随着蒸发的增大使年总径流量减少,气候变暖总体不利于流域径流量的增加.     

基于SPOT-VGT NDVI的玛纳斯县植被覆盖变化分析

文中利用1999-2007年SPOT-VGT归一化植被指数,分析了天山北坡玛纳斯县NDVI的时空变化特征及其与主要气候因子(气温和降水)的相关关系.结果表明:(1)从年间变化看,1999-2007年间,玛纳斯县NDVI的多年平均值为0.17,总体上呈先下降后上升的趋势,表明玛纳斯县的生态环境有改善的趋势.从季节变化看,县平均NDVI年内季节变化明显,变化幅度在0.02～0.33之间,3月份开始上升较快,最高值出现在7月份.(2)从空间变化分布看,县域植被覆盖度均呈上升趋势,平原区和沙漠区的植被覆盖增加较大,可以看出县域在城镇绿化、基本农田保护、农田林网和防护林建设方面取得了较好的成效.(3)气温和降水是影响县域植被的重要气候因子,气温与月NDVI的线性相关系数为0.0071,降水与NDVI成指数相关,指数为0.1203.     

西藏羊卓雍错流域冰川-湖泊动态变化研究

基于landsat卫星数据,数字高程模型(DEM)数据以及气象数据,借助遥感和地理信息系统技术,定量分析了1977年到2012年西藏羊卓雍错流域内冰川、湖泊的变化及其原因。结果表明:35年间该流域冰川面积持续缩小,并且在2000年以后有加速退缩的趋势,共减少了58.45km2。湖泊经历了先缩小后增大再加速萎缩的过程,35年来湖泊共缩小了46.19km2。流域35年来年均气温上升明显,尤其是冬季气温上升幅度大,气温的升高是冰川快速退缩的主要原因;湖泊的消涨取决于降水和蒸发的综合作用,冰川和湖泊之间的水文关系不显著。该区域近年来有暖干化的趋势,水资源压力较大。     

1960-2018年博斯腾湖水位变化特征及其影响因素分析

结合博斯腾湖1960—2018年水位、出入湖径流以及气象站点实测资料,采用集合经验模态分解(Ensem?ble Empirical Mode Decomposition,EEMD)、水量平衡和气候弹性方法,对近60 a博斯腾湖水位变化及其影响因素进行了详细分析。结果表明:(1)1960—2018年博斯腾湖水位总体呈下降态势,具体表现为“下降-上升-下降-上升”四个阶段。(2)在年际尺度上水位存在准3~4 a、准8~9 a的周期性振荡,而年代际尺度上表现出准29~30 a和准33~34 a的周期性变化。(3)1960—2018年降水、气温和潜在蒸散发对开都河、黄水沟和焉耆径流的累积贡献率分别达85.1%、42.1%和23.8%,而下垫面、其他气象变量和人为等因素累积对径流的贡献率分别约为14.9%、57.9%和76.2%。(4)对不同阶段博斯腾湖水位变化原因分析:1960—1987年水位急剧下降的主要原因同入湖径流减少和湖面蒸发量大有关;气温升高和降水量增加导致入湖水量增加是1988—2002年水位显著升高的主要原因;入湖径流减少和出湖水量增多,导致2003—2014年水位显著下降;博斯腾湖入湖水量的显著增加及对出湖水量的严格控制是2015—2018年水位明显上升的主要原因。     

扎龙湿地近58年气温、降水变化特征研究

根据齐齐哈尔市1951-2008年气象观测数据,利用统计分析方法分析了58年来扎龙湿地气温和降水的变化情况。分析结果表明：年平均气温变化呈上升趋势,年降水量变化呈波动趋势,存在2～3年、6～7年变化周期。气温的季节变化呈不同程度的上升趋势,降水的季节变化呈不同程度的波动趋势;年均气温的代际变化较为和缓,呈小幅上升趋势,...     

陕西省气温与降水变化时空分布研究

根据1981年-2010年陕西及周边的42个气象站点的气温和降水数据,采用经验正交函数分解法(empirical orthogonal function,EOF),结合GIS空间分析方法,计算和分析了陕西省29年气温和降水的时空分布特征以及年内、年际的时间变化特征。结果表明:1)陕西省年气温大致存在三种主要的类型:南北差异型、地形影响型、正负相间型。南北差异型为最主要的空间分布型,表现为温度受纬度变化的影响南部气温较高北部气温较低。2)陕西省年降水大致存在四种主要类型:南北递减型、延河南北反向型、东南-西北分布型、相间分布型。南北差异型为最主要的空间分布型,表现为陕西北部降水较少,南部降水较多。3)陕西省气温空间场对应的时间序列具有明显的年内变化和年际变化;降水空间场对应的时间序列具有较明显的年际变化,而年内的波动性较强。     

开都河流域中下游气候变化特征及其对径流的影响

采用开都河流域大山口、焉耆水文气象站1960—2010年的观测资料,利用趋势分析、距平分析、多元回归以及线性拟合方法,分析了开都河中游、下游气温和降水变化特征,以及径流对气候变化的响应。结果表明:近50 a来,开都河流域气温总体呈上升趋势,其中大山口上升1.08℃,焉耆上升1.71℃。气温季节变化分析表明:焉耆冬季气温上升比夏季明显,大山口各季节气温变化差异不明显,总体呈上升趋势。降水年际波动较大,大山口站降水增加趋势显著,1998年降水达到50 a最大值。气温和降水对径流均有一定的影响,大山口以上相关性表现得比较明显,焉耆段相关性不强,总体上气温和降水与径流的变化均呈正相关关系。     

半干旱区春小麦水分与产量关系及其影响因素分析

水分是影响半干旱雨养作物生长、发育及产量形成最重要的环境因素。以中国西北半干旱区田间试验为基础，收集长期观测资料和文献数据，分析春小麦产量与水分之间的关系及其环境影响因素，揭示不同环境条件下春小麦水分限制特征和调控机制。研究表明：半干旱区常规管理水平下，雨养春小麦产量与水分间的关系相对稳定，然而播前土壤储水影响生育期降水与春小麦产量间的关系，不同播前土壤储水条件下，每增加1 mm降水量，春小麦产量的增加量分别为21.3 kg·hm^-2和16.8 kg·hm^-2。生育期大气干湿条件（潜在蒸发量与降水的差值）对播前土壤储水与春小麦产量间的关系也有影响，其中大气较为干燥时（潜在蒸发量与降水的差值大于425 mm），产量与土壤水分间关系斜率为22.9 kg·hm^-2·mm^-1，大气较为湿润时（潜在蒸发量与降水的差值小于425 mm），斜率为20.1 kg·hm^-2·mm^-1。相较生育期降水，播前土壤储水对春小麦产量更具有决定性作用。半干旱雨养春小麦的气候年型由播前土壤储水和生育期大气干湿条件共同决定。增加播前土壤水分储量、在生育期的特定阶段灌溉均会改变小麦耗水量与产量之间的关系，并最终导致小麦水分利用效率发生变化。大气干湿条件和灌溉条件共同导致中国西北不同地区春小麦边界函数存在差异。     

Seasonal dynamics of soil water content in the typical vegetation and its response to precipitation in a semi-arid area of Chinese Loess Plateau

Soil water content is a key limiting factor for vegetation growth in the semi-arid area of Chinese Loess Plateau and precipitation is the main source of soil water content in this area. To further understand the impact of vegetation types and environmental factors such as precipitation on soil water content, we continuously monitored the seasonal dynamics in soil water content in four plots (natural grassland, Caragana korshinskii, Armeniaca sibirica and Pinus tabulaeformis) in Chinese Loess Plateau. The results show that the amplitude of soil water content fluctuation decreases with an increase in soil depth, showing obvious seasonal variations. Soil water content of artificial vegetation was found to be significantly lower than that of natural grassland, and most precipitation events have difficulty replenishing soil water content below a depth of 40 cm. Spring and autumn are the key seasons for replenishment of soil water by precipitation. Changes in soil water content are affected by precipitation, vegetation types, soil evaporation and other factors. The interception effect of vegetation on precipitation and the demand for water consumption by transpiration are the key factors affecting the efficiency of soil water replenishment by precipitation in this area. Due to artificial vegetation plantation in this area, soil will face a water deficit crisis in the future.     

和田河流域半世纪来气温、降水突变分析

利用和田河流域和田市气象站1954-2007年逐月气温及降水资料,采用Mann-Kendall、滑动t和Yamamoto法联合检测半世纪来和田河流域气温、降水年及四季突变事实,结果发现:半世纪来,和田河流域气温发生了以变暖为主的显著突变,春、夏、秋三季和年突变点在90年代中期1996～1997年,冬季在1984～1985年;除秋季外,年和春、夏、冬三季都有降水突变,年、春、夏季以突变增加为主,年、春季突变点在1986、2001～2002年,夏季在1985年,冬季以突变减少为主,出现在1978、1994年;气温、降水突变互有影响,1996年春、夏季出现的显著暖突变直接导致同年年气温的显著暖突变,1986年春季降水的突变增加直接导致同年降水的突变增加,1996年气温的显著暖突变引起同年年降水的显著减少突变;不同突变检测方法灵敏性不同,应将多种方法结合使用,以增加突变检测点的可信度和确定性。     

Spatial distribution of δ~2H and δ~18O values in the hydrologic cycle of the Nile Basin

Existing δ2H and δ18O values for precipitation and surface water in the Nile Basin were used to analyze precipitation inputs and the influence of evaporation on the isotopic signal of the Nile River and its tributaries. The goal of the data analysis was to better understand basin processes that influence seasonal streamflow for the source waters of the Nile River, because climate and hydrologic models have continued to produce high uncertainty in the prediction of precipitation and streamflow in the Nile Basin. An evaluation of differences in precipitation δ2H and δ18O values through linear regression and distribution analysis indicate variation by region and season in the isotopic signal of precipitation across the Nile Basin. The White Nile Basin receives precipitation with a more depleted isotopic signal compared to the Blue Nile Basin. The hot temperatures of the Sahelian spring produce a greater evaporation signal in the precipitation isotope distribution compared to precipitation in the Sahara/Mediterranean region, which can be influenced by storms moving in from the Mediterranean Sea. The larger evaporative effect is reversed for the two regions in summer because of the cooling of the Sahel from inflow of Indian Ocean monsoon moisture that predominantly influences the climate of the Blue Nile Basin. The regional precipitation isotopic signals convey to each region's streamflow, which is further modified by additional evaporation according to the local climate. Isotope ratios for White Nile streamflow are significantly altered by evaporation in the Sudd, but this isotopic signal is minimized for streamflow in the Nile River during the winter, spring and summer seasons because of the flow dominance of the Blue Nile. During fall, the contribution from the White Nile may exceed that of the Blue Nile, and the heavier isotopic signal of the White Nile becomes apparent. The variation in climatic conditions of the Nile River Basin provides a means of identifying mechanistic processes through changes in isotope ratios of hydrogen and oxygen, which have utility for separating precipitation origin and the effect of evaporation during seasonal periods. The existing isotope record for precipitation and streamflow in the Nile Basin can be used to evaluate predicted streamflow in the Nile River from a changing climate that is expected to induce further changes in precipitation patterns across the Nile Basin.     

近40年来沧州地区水资源的气候特征

利用沧州地区6个站点1970-2004年的平均气温及降水量资料,分析沧州地区水资源的气候特征.初步得出:自1985年发生由冷到暖的突变以来,本地区气温呈上升趋势.降水量、蒸发量和可利用降水资源量季节分布和逐月分布一致,夏季降水最为丰富,秋季次之,春季和冬季最少;而蒸发量每年1月最少,7月最大.但降水量和可利用降水资源量年际间变幅很大,且呈减少趋势,蒸发量变幅没有降水量变幅大,且年际间相对稳定.     

Identifying water vapor sources of precipitation in forest and grassland in the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains,Central Asia

Identifying water vapor sources in the natural vegetation of the Tianshan Mountains is of significant importance for obtaining greater knowledge about the water cycle,forecasting water resource changes,and dealing with the adverse effects of climate change.In this study,we identified water vapor sources of precipitation and evaluated their effects on precipitation stable isotopes in the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains,China.By utilizing the temporal and spatial distributions of precipitation stable isotopes in the forest and grassland regions,Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory(HYSPLIT)model,and isotope mass balance model,we obtained the following results.(1)The Eurasia,Black Sea,and Caspian Sea are the major sources of water vapor.(2)The contribution of surface evaporation to precipitation in forests is lower than that in the grasslands(except in spring),while the contribution of plant transpiration to precipitation in forests(5.35%)is higher than that in grasslands(3.79%)in summer.(3)The underlying surface and temperature are the main factors that affect the contribution of recycled water vapor to precipitation;meanwhile,the effects of water vapor sources of precipitation on precipitation stable isotopes are counteracted by other environmental factors.Overall,this work will prove beneficial in quantifying the effect of climate change on local water cycles.     

Spatial variability and temporal stability of actual evapotranspiration on a hillslope of the Chinese Loess Plateau

Actual evapotranspiration(ETa)is a key component of water balance.This study aimed to investigate the spatial variability and time stability of ETa along a hillslope and to analyze the key factors that control the spatiotemporal variability of ETa.The potential evaporation,surface runoff and 0–480 cm soil water profile were measured along a 243 m long transect on a hillslope of the Loess Plateau during the normal(2015)and wet(2016)water years.ETa was calculated using water balance equation.Results indicated that increasing precipitation during the wet water year did not alter the spatial pattern of ETa along the hillslope;time stability analysis showed that a location with high time stability of ETa could be used to estimate the mean ETa of the hillslope.Time stability of ETa was positively correlated with elevation(P<0.05),indicating that,on a hillslope in a semi-arid area,elevation was the primary factor influencing the time stability of ETa.     

咸阳城区地下水位动态分析及预测

依据咸阳城区1985~2003年地下水位监测资料,对其地下水位变化动态进行分析。认为本区地下水位年内季节变化明显,年际变化持续或波动下降。人工开采等人为因素是影响地下水位变化的主导因素,降水量、蒸发量、水文地质条件等自然因素成为影响地下水位变化的次要因素。在目前供水和用水条件下,GM(1,1)模型模拟和预测的未来地下水位呈下降变化趋势。     

石羊河下游物候季节的水热分配及变化特征

基于物候季节,分析了石羊河下游地区1971-2000年各季节的水热分配状况及多年变化特征。结果表明,石羊河下游物候季节的更迭与气候的季节性演变相吻合,稳定通过物候四季的温度界限分别为春季≥2.9℃,夏季≥19.0℃,秋季<19.0℃,冬季≤4.5℃。水热资源最丰富为物候的夏季,其≥0℃的积温和降水分别占全年的55.8%和62.5%。多年来,温度的四季变化和年际变化具有明显的增加趋势,增长幅度依次为冬季>全年>春季>夏季>秋季。年均温的升高以1986年为突变年,而冬季和春季气温的升高分别以1985年和1991为突变年;降水变化的趋势不明显,年降水的波动形态与夏季基本一致,春季则与夏季相反,有春湿夏干或春干夏湿的趋势。     

Response of vegetation to temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang during the period of 1998-2009

In this paper,10-day spatio-temporal response of vegetation to the change of temperature and precipitation in spring,summer,autumn and whole year during the period of 1998―2009 was analyzed based on the data of SPOT VEGETATION-NDVI and 10-day average temperature or precipitation from 54 meteorological stations in Xinjiang.The results show that the response of 10-day NDVI to temperature was more significant than that to precipitation,and the maximal response of vegetation to temperature and precipitation lagged for two 10-day periods.Seasonally,the effect of temperature and precipitation on vegetation NDVI was most marked in autumn,then in spring,and it was not significant in summer.The response of vegetation to 10-day change of meteorological factors was positive with a long affecting duration in spring,and it had a relatively short affecting duration in autumn and summer.Spatially,the 10-day maximal response of NDVI to temperature in northern Xinjiang was higher than that in southern Xinjiang.The correlation between the 10-day NDVI in whole year and the temperature in the 0-8th 10-day period was significantly higher than that between the annual NDVI and the annual temperature at all meteorological stations;the interannual change of NDVI was accordant well with the change of annual precipitation.However,the effect of precipitation within a year on NDVI was not strong.The results indicated that interannual change of temperature was not the dominant factor affecting the change of vegetation NDVI in Xinjiang,but the decrease of annual precipitation was the main factor resulting in the fluctuation of vegetation coverage.Ten-day average temperature was an important factor to promote vegetation growth in Xinjiang within a year,but the effect of precipitation on vegetation growth within a year was not strong.