检疫决策的支持工具：澳大利亚植物检疫PRA研究综述

引 言 目前,世界各国检疫部门越来越重视有害生物风险分析(PestRisk Analysis,PRA)工作,PRA工作的国际化趋势也越来越明显。最新一轮关贸总协定(GATT)乌拉圭回合多边贸易谈判达成的关于动植物检疫卫生措施的协议(SPS协议)在强调透明度、     

有害生物风险分析及其植物检疫决策支持系统介绍

有害生物风险分析(Pest Risk Analysis,简称PRA)是近年来日益受到世界各国重视的一个研究热点.由著名的国际农业和生物科学中心(CABI)编辑出版的作物保护大全检索系统(Crop Protection Compendium)其中的植物检疫决策支持系统(Phytosanitary Decision-Support System)是开展有害生物风险分析的有效工具.本文试图对其进行简要介绍,以方便广大植物检疫工作者开展PRA工作时参考使用.     

有害生物风险分析与进出境水果检疫

世界贸易组织(WTO)诸多协议之一<实施卫生与植物卫生措施协定>(SPS)明确提出检疫措施要建立在有害生物风险分析(PRA)的基础之上.有害生物风险分析是评价生物学或其他科学、经济学证据,确定某种有害生物是否应予以管制以及管制所采取的植物卫生措施力度的过程.主要包括风险确定、风险评估、风险管理和风险交流四个部分.有害生物风险分析是检疫决策的主要技术依据;而且随着新的世界贸易体制的运作,进行PRA可保持检疫的正当技术性贸易措施作用,充分发挥检疫的保护功能;PRA能强化检疫对贸易的促进作用,增加本国农产品出口的市场准入机会.同时开展PRA工作也是遵守SPS协定及其透明度原则的具体体现.随着世界经济与贸易的发展,特别是全球贸易自由化的发展以及区域性经济共同体和其他政治经济组织的产生,统一的贸易原则和一体化的贸易措施逐步形成,必然对国际植物检疫产生很大的影响.因此,禁止进境的"零"允许与贸易利益产生了很大的矛盾,因此,打破"零"允许已是不可阻挡的趋势,而实施SPS协定中关于"透明度"、"风险分析"等一系列条款,正是这种趋势的过程和体现.今后,在提出任何一项检疫措施之前,进行相关的有害生物风险分析(PRA)成为必要的步骤.     

有害生物风险分析研究工作的发展

本文认为有害生物传入可能性研究、有害生物适生性研究、有害生物综合风险评估和风险管理研究是有害生物风险分析（PRA）的3个发展阶段。提出强化PRA基础理论研究、着力定量分析方法研究和开展风险管理措施的效能研究是中国现阶段PRA的研究领域。     

有害生物风险交流

自从20世纪80年代我国开展有害生物风险分析（Pest Risk Analysis，简秒PRA）工作以来，取得了可喜的成绩^[1]。为保护农林产业和生态系统安全、破除非关税贸易壁垒、扩大农产品出口等作出了突出的贡献。PRA目的重在风险管理，管理措施的实施处处都体现着以人为本的思想。开展以人为本的风险交流的研究，提高风险管理的意识，是植物保护工作的重中之重。     

杂草风险分析概述

外来有害杂草是外来有害生物中造成经济和生态环境损失最大的种类之一,阻止外来有害杂草入侵正受到越来越多的关注.随着有害生物风险分析(PRA)研究的不断深入,杂草风险分析也得到不断发展和应用.本文概述了杂草风险分析的基本程序,当前应用较为广泛的杂草风险评估方法和体系,以及我国杂草风险分析概况,并对存在的问题进行了简要分析,期望杂草风险分析方法和体系得到进一步发展.     

有害生物风险分析定量评估模型及其比较

全球化的进程使有害生物入侵问题日益严重,植物检疫工作备受重视。有害生物风险分析(pest risk analysis,PRA)是植物检疫的支撑技术之一,风险评估是其核心内容,定量评估模型的研究与应用成为近30年来该领域的热点。本文在收集、整理国内外PRA文献和相关信息的基础上,针对有害生物入侵风险半定量评估模型、定量评估模型及软件的发展进行了系统性的回顾和分析。同时,我们比较了主要模型和软件的特点、优势和局限性,归纳总结出了适用于不同起点的有害生物定量风险评估集成技术体系,并展望了我国有害生物风险分析技术的未来发展。本综述能够为我国生物入侵防控管理机构、推广部门、高等院校及科研单位提供重要的工作参考,对植物检疫工作具有理论和实践意义。     

新西兰的有害生物风险分析体系

有害生物风险分析(PRA)作为新西兰生物安全体系决策程序中的最主要工具,在保护新西兰经济、环境和人民健康免受外来有害生物侵袭中发挥着极其重要的作用,经过长期实践,已经形成了较为全面、完善的生物安全风险分析体系.     

有害生物风险分析工作回顾

结合本人40余年在植物检疫工作中的学习经历和实践体会,本文主要概括了"有害生物风险分析"(PRA)的发展背景和内涵特征:"有害生物风险分析"是植物检疫的一项重要而关键的科学技术,也是一项发展植物检疫事业的基础性研究任务;它起步于有害生物检疫重要性评价,经历了从零风险到可接受风险的观念转变,又扩展到公共安全风险分析;"有害生物风险分析"内容广泛、方法多样,发展了从定性到定量的综合集成方法。最后,提出对"有害生物风险分析"发展现状的思考,以及未来进一步改进的设想。     

广西红火蚁定性和定量的风险分析研究

有害生物风险分析（PRA）是国际植物保护公约（IPPC）和WTO规则中评估生物危险性的重要方法,是开展有害生物检疫管理的基础工作。在广泛收集和掌握红火蚁的国内外分布状况、潜在危害性、危害对象的经济重要性、定殖扩散的可能性、危险性和管理难度的基础上,本文参照国际上有害生物风险分析指标体系,通过定性和定量风险分析研究,对广西红火蚁的风险做出科学的综合评价,得出风险评估值R=2.28。风险分析表明,红火蚁在广西属于高度危险性有害生物。因此,通过风险分析进一步科学论证了防控红火蚁的重要性、必要性和紧迫性。此分析方法也为今后评估外来有害生物风险提供了重要借鉴。     

进口植物及植物产品有害生物风险分析

本文从经济、生态和人及人类社会3个方面阐述了外来有害生物的风险;根据国际标准中制订的有害生物风险分析流程,定性地描述了有害生物风险分析的方法;并从入侵种特性研究、适生区预测研究和风险分析模型3个方面阐述了有关有害生物风险分析的理论研究进展,这些理论研究有助于为有害生物风险定量分析提供科学依据。     

重大外来入侵害虫三叶斑潜蝇在中国的风险性分析

根据国际植物检疫措施标准(ISPM)规定的有害生物风险性分析(PRA)程序,利用相关风险性分析模型,从国内外分布状况、潜在的危害性、受害栽培寄主的经济重要性、传播扩散的可能性及危险性管理难度5个方面对三叶斑潜蝇在我国的风险性进行定性、定量分析,其综合风险值R为2.15,符合检疫性有害生物的条件,据此提出了2条相关风险管理备选对策,并进行效率和影响分析,以期使风险减少到可接受的水平。     

Evaluation of probabilistic risk assessment of pesticides in the UK: chlorpyrifos use on top fruit

The use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for examining chemical impacts has become an important area of debate within the European Union. This paper describes a case study on probabilistic techniques to assess pesticide risks in the UK aquatic environment. The main aim of this paper is to demonstrate both the potential strengths and weaknesses of PRA for assessing pesticides when compared with the conventional deterministic approach, and to examine whether PRA is useful within the European regulatory context. The organophosphate insecticide, chlorpyrifos, was selected as a model compound and toxicity exposure ratios calculated using Monte Carlo analysis and different distributions of spray drift and toxicity values following application to top fruit. Chlorpyrifos is highly toxic to arthropods but less toxic to fishes. Species sensitivity followed a log-normal distribution when fitted to all toxicity data. Toxicity data quantity had little influence on species sensitivity distribution model parameters when n was greater than 10 species. Below this, estimates were less accurate and precise, possibly because of the inclusion of data from many different sources. Estimates of chlorpyrifos exposure derived from the standard spray drift model differed substantially from measurements of chlorpyrifos in European surface waters. When a distribution based on measured concentrations was used in a PRA, the risk of acute fish mortality was low, and the risk of acute arthropod mortality was lower than in other scenarios, although not negligible. If PRA is used to assess pesticides, risk managers need further guidance on how to conduct a PRA and what constitutes 'unacceptable risk' under EC Directive 91/414/EEC, as judgement is required when simple trigger values are no longer used.     

A model of the decision‐support scheme for express pest risk analysis using a Bayesian network implemented in Excel

A model was developed to accompany the EPPO decision support scheme for express pest risk analysis (PRA) and provide a calculated overall risk and uncertainty for the PRA and so act as a reference for the judgement of overall risk and uncertainty provided by expert working groups. Implemented in Excel, it is readily accessible to PRA practitioners and offers: (a) a consistent and explained weighting of the different risk factors and a rationale for the way they are combined, (b) a calculated integration of the risk factor distributions to facilitate judgement of overall uncertainty, and (c) an account of the interaction between the rating and the uncertainty score so that, for example, an overall rating of moderate is not necessarily used to reflect uncertainty about assessments in which the risk is neither obviously high nor low. Of the nine published express PRAs examined, the rating and uncertainty predicted by the model were: in agreement with five; differed in both rating and uncertainty in one case; differed in rating only in one case; and differed in uncertainty only in two cases. Possible reasons for these differences were examined and the interpretation of model results to inform assessments is discussed.     

PRATIQUE: a research project to enhance pest risk analysis techniques in the European Union

PRATIQUE is an EC-funded 7th Framework research project designed to address the major challenges for pest risk analysis (PRA) in Europe. It has three principal objectives: (a) to assemble the datasets required to construct PRAs valid for the whole of the EU, (b) to conduct multi-disciplinary research that enhances the techniques used in PRA and (c) to provide a decision support scheme for PRA that is efficient and user-friendly. The research will be undertaken by scientists from 13 institutes in the EU and one each from Australia and New Zealand with subcontractors from institutes in China and Russia. They will produce a structured inventory of PRA datasets for the EU and undertake targeted research to improve existing procedures and develop new methods for (a) the assessment of economic, environmental and social impacts, (b) summarising risk while taking account of uncertainty, (c) mapping endangered areas (d) pathway risk analysis and systems approaches and (e) guiding actions during emergencies caused by outbreaks of harmful organisms. The results will be tested and provided as protocols, decision support systems and computer programs with examples of best practice linked to a computerised European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization (EPPO) PRA scheme.     

云南外来入侵有害生物多指标综合评价体系的建立

以国际植物检疫措施标准(ISPMs)为依据,通过对云南外来有害生物入侵现状的分析,总结国内外在有害生物风险分析中的研究成果,建立云南外来入侵有害生物多指标综合评价体系。该体系中的目标层(R值)包含了5个准则层(Pi),其下级为指标层(Pij),由17个多指标因子组成,并根据各层次之间的相互关系建立数学模型。R值的分值范围在0和3之间,并对其进行4个等级分级:0.5(不包含)以下为低度风险,0.5~1.5(不包含)为中度风险,1.5~2.5(不包含)为高度风险,2.5以上为极高风险,以此为据确定云南入侵有害生物风险等级。     

Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) for the territories of the European Union (as PRA area) on Bursaphelenchus xylophilus and its vectors in the genus Monochamus

An analysis of the risk to the countries of the European Union from a possible introduction of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus and its vectors in the genus Monochamus is performed by assembling relevant biological, climatic and commercial information. The risks presented by different trade pathways are assessed and phytosanitary measures to reduce the risks are proposed. The conclusion of the PRA, based on EPPO PRA guideline no. 1, is that these pests present a serious risk to European coniferous forests.     

菜豆象在中国的风险性分析

运用有害生物危险性分析(PestRiskAnalysis,PRA)的方法,从国内分布状况、潜在为害性、寄主植物经济重要性、传播扩散的可能性以及危险性的管理难度等方面,综合评价了菜豆象的危险性。结果表明,菜豆象的综合风险性值为2.09,对我国是具有高度危险性的有害生物,并提出了相关风险性管理对策。