广西红火蚁定性和定量的风险分析研究

有害生物风险分析（PRA）是国际植物保护公约（IPPC）和WTO规则中评估生物危险性的重要方法,是开展有害生物检疫管理的基础工作。在广泛收集和掌握红火蚁的国内外分布状况、潜在危害性、危害对象的经济重要性、定殖扩散的可能性、危险性和管理难度的基础上,本文参照国际上有害生物风险分析指标体系,通过定性和定量风险分析研究,对广西红火蚁的风险做出科学的综合评价,得出风险评估值R=2.28。风险分析表明,红火蚁在广西属于高度危险性有害生物。因此,通过风险分析进一步科学论证了防控红火蚁的重要性、必要性和紧迫性。此分析方法也为今后评估外来有害生物风险提供了重要借鉴。     

基于C#的外来有害生物定量风险分析系统

本文介绍了外来有害生物半定量和定量风险分析系统的整体结构和功能。系统以多指标综合评价法和场景分析法两大类方法作为支持,以C#为开发语言,由用户自定义场景分析,利用蒙特卡洛方法进行数据模拟,通过数据处理、结果分析等功能实现对外来有害生物的风险评估。系统具有易操作、可扩展性以及适用范围广的特点,为有害生物风险分析定量化做出进一步探索。     

@RISK在有害生物定量风险评估中的应用

定性风险评估和定量风险评估是有害生物风险分析的主要方法,@RISK是进行定量风险评估的重要软件工具之一。本文在回顾有害生物定性风险评估与定量风险评估概念、关系及优缺点的基础上,综合分析了国内外使用@RISK软件针对植物病原物和害虫进行定量风险评估的发展现状,并就@RISK的未来应用提出了相关建议。     

我国有害生物风险分析(PRA)的历史与现状

本文回顾了中国有害生物风险分析工作将近一个世纪的历史 ,介绍了以动植物检疫实验所为主完成的 3 8个风险分析报告、繁殖材料风险分析工作进展和最近完成的小麦矮腥黑穗病菌定量风险分析 ,在总结最近 2 0年PRA工作的基础上 ,提出了我国PRA工作中存在的问题及对策     

有害生物随水果类产品传入的风险评估方法

本文研究了澳大利亚进口新西兰苹果风险分析报告,阐述其分析有害生物进入的过程及计算方法的数学模型。文中分别就有害生物随产品到达口岸的可能性、病害类有害生物随产品被消费者丢弃可能性、病害类有害生物接触寄主可能性及发生可能性,进行了详细的分析并列出计算方法,为风险分析工作提供技术帮助。     

进口植物及植物产品有害生物风险分析

本文从经济、生态和人及人类社会3个方面阐述了外来有害生物的风险;根据国际标准中制订的有害生物风险分析流程,定性地描述了有害生物风险分析的方法;并从入侵种特性研究、适生区预测研究和风险分析模型3个方面阐述了有关有害生物风险分析的理论研究进展,这些理论研究有助于为有害生物风险定量分析提供科学依据。     

有害生物风险分析定量评估模型及其比较

全球化的进程使有害生物入侵问题日益严重,植物检疫工作备受重视。有害生物风险分析(pest risk analysis,PRA)是植物检疫的支撑技术之一,风险评估是其核心内容,定量评估模型的研究与应用成为近30年来该领域的热点。本文在收集、整理国内外PRA文献和相关信息的基础上,针对有害生物入侵风险半定量评估模型、定量评估模型及软件的发展进行了系统性的回顾和分析。同时,我们比较了主要模型和软件的特点、优势和局限性,归纳总结出了适用于不同起点的有害生物定量风险评估集成技术体系,并展望了我国有害生物风险分析技术的未来发展。本综述能够为我国生物入侵防控管理机构、推广部门、高等院校及科研单位提供重要的工作参考,对植物检疫工作具有理论和实践意义。     

主要贸易国家有害生物风险分析研究方法比较

本文采用系统分析和比较分析法对中国主要贸易国家中开展有害生物风险分析工作较先进的国家，如美国、澳大利亚、加拿大、新西兰及其它一些国家和地区，如EPPO、安第斯共同体、日本等的有害生物风险分析方法进行了分析。对美加模式、澳新模式以及打分法、矩阵法、途径分析法进行了阐述和比较。     

有害生物风险评估方法在北京市农业植物检疫工作中的应用

本文结合北京市农业植物检疫工作实际,融合定性、定量有害生物风险评估方法,系统地开展了有害生物风险分析。在定性评估中,进行适生性、经济重要性等定性分析,明确我市具有较高传入风险的潜在检疫性有害生物52种(属);在定量评估中,首次提出以乡镇为基本单元,研究建立了基于乡(镇)、区(县)、全市的层级递进式有害生物风险评估方法,确定了风险值为3.0以上的高风险重点防控检疫性有害生物16种(属)及重点监测区域。并在此基础上提出了相应的风险管理对策。     

植保有害生物风险分析理论体系的探讨

植保有害生物风险分析需要正确地收集大量数据。并急需建立实用的或可操作的有害生物风险分析体系，针对这种情况，本文将风险相关因素归纳为天气，地理和生物3大类，提出了有害生物的天气-地理-生物复合体系。该体系以生态网为出发点，对有害生物风险条件，事件及风险种类按层次和等级进行风险因子划分，然后进行风险因子模拟，风险分析和计算，实现有害生物的多因子调控管理。从而在风险分析，风险预测和风险决策的基础上，完成从风险确定，风险评价，风险管理到风险交流的风险全过程管理。     

A quantitative interpretation of the entry section of the EPPO decision‐support scheme for pest risk analysis

The development of methods to combine components of risk and their associated uncertainty in Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) has received attention in a number of recent European projects. Many of the risk components distinguished in the EPPO Decision‐support scheme (DSS) for PRA are usually difficult to quantify, but when there is detailed knowledge of the pest and pathway, quantification may be possible to a limited extent for the pest entry section of the scheme. The European Food Safety Authority has recently commissioned a project to investigate approaches to quantitative pathway analysis for pests of commodities entering and moving within the EU (QPA‐Food); a sister project concerns non‐food commodities. This paper illustrates the potential for a quantitative pathway model based closely on the Entry Section of the EPPO DSS for PRA, where existing quantitative definitions of rating categories have been used as a basis to estimate the proportion and number of infested lots on a pathway. Such quantification may provide additional insights without requiring substantial changes to the information elicited via the DSS.     

CAPRA: the EPPO Computer Assisted PRA scheme*

The EPPO Secretariat has developed computer software for Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) within the EC 7th Framework Programme PRATIQUE (Enhancements of Pest Risk Analysis Techniques) and with the support of the EPPO Panels. The software, Computer Assisted PRA (CAPRA), aims to assist pest risk analysts to run the EPPO Decision‐support scheme for pest risk analysis [EPPO Standard PM 5/3(5) Decision‐support scheme for quarantine pests], and other decision‐support schemes. It is freely avaliable on the EPPO website or on http://capra.eppo.org/ .     

Evaluation of evidence and its uncertainty in qualitative pest risk assessments: the North American perspective

Under the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Agreement and IPPC risk management framework, measures should be based on evidence. There is however, no specific guidance about quality of evidence or treatment of uncertainty under these agreements. Uncertainty in qualitative Pest Risk Assessments (PRA) is largely dependent on the quality and reliability of information. USDA Guidelines for PRA of Imported Fruit and Vegetable Commodities (2012) and NAPPO Regional Standard for Phytosanitary Measures (RSPM) No. 40 include supplements on the evaluation of evidence. The supplements establish a framework for assessing the quality and reliability of scientific evidence. Reliability of evidence addresses the quality of information sources, the methodology used, and the degree of consensus regarding the data, rated from low to high depending on the publication sources. Applicability refers to pertinence of the information to a particular situation and is rated from low to high based on the degree of extrapolation of biological information and environmental conditions in the publication source in relation to the actual scenario in the PRA. The rating for uncertainty associated with the quality of evidence is found in a matrix that combines ratings for applicability and reliability.     

Rating and mapping the suitability of the climate for pest risk analysis*

The assessment of the suitability of the climate for pest establishment is an important part of pest risk analysis (PRA). This paper describes the work undertaken by the EU 7th Framework project PRATIQUE (Enhancements of Pest Risk Analysis Techniques) to develop guidance for this component of PRA. Firstly, there is a guide to rating the suitability of the climate in the PRA area using qualitative methods. Secondly, a Decision‐support scheme (DSS) has been created to assist analysts in deciding whether to map climatic suitability, and to guide the selection of the most appropriate method from the large number available. The process of selecting a climatic mapping method is based on a review of the pest’s climatic responses and distribution. A spreadsheet provides a comparison of the potential problems that can arise, depending on the mapping method and on the amount and quality of available data. Diagrams are provided to help choose the location data category that best represents the possible biases in the known distribution of the pest. A second spreadsheet provides general information on the differences and similarities of each method in terms of categories such as functionality, ease of use and quality assurance. A variety of data, tools and supporting documents are available as appendices to the DSS. All of the tools and guides are freely available online.     

重大外来入侵害虫三叶斑潜蝇在中国的风险性分析

根据国际植物检疫措施标准(ISPM)规定的有害生物风险性分析(PRA)程序,利用相关风险性分析模型,从国内外分布状况、潜在的危害性、受害栽培寄主的经济重要性、传播扩散的可能性及危险性管理难度5个方面对三叶斑潜蝇在我国的风险性进行定性、定量分析,其综合风险值R为2.15,符合检疫性有害生物的条件,据此提出了2条相关风险管理备选对策,并进行效率和影响分析,以期使风险减少到可接受的水平。     

Tools for visualizing and integrating pest risk assessment ratings and uncertainties*

The application of pest risk analysis (PRA) decision‐support schemes, such as that used by the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization (EPPO), generates many ratings for likelihood or magnitude of risk factors, each with an associated uncertainty. In accordance with the international standard ISPM 11 ( FAO, 2004 ), questions have been devised to assess the key elements of pest risk in the four main sections of pest risk assessment: Entry, Establishment, Spread and Impact. After completing each section, risk assessors are required to give a summary rating and an uncertainty score for that section. The large number of question ratings and uncertainty scores make the task of summarizing each section and its uncertainty quite difficult. Two graphical tools have been developed to aid this task: the PRA Risk score and uncertainty visualizer (Visualizer) and the Rule‐based matrix model (RBMM). The Visualizer presents a case summary graph on a single page in such a way that the risk assessors and peer reviewers can see rating scores and uncertainties in a pictorial manner; the RBMM integrates all the individual questions in the assessment through a hierarchy of rules that attempt to mimic the logic used by the assessors and are arranged in the form of a flow chart to give an overall rating with an accompanying expression of uncertainty.