河西走廊干旱区的水资源分布及循环过程

运用河西走廊3大内陆河流(疏勒河、黑河和石羊河)1955～2006年河流流量、冰川、地质水文和气象实测资料,系统分析了区域内水资源的分布规律及其循环转化关系等.结果表明,河西走廊水资源主要以冰雪水资源、地表水资源与地下水资源的形式存在,分布于3大相对独立的流域水系中；南部祁连山区发育大小河流共计57条,多年平均出山径流...     

近50年来新疆天山南北坡典型流域冰川与冰川水资源的变化

冰川是大自然修筑的"固体水库",在水资源的构成中占有重要地位。新疆地处内陆干旱区,是我国现代冰川面积分布最广的地区之一。冰川和冰川融水为新疆灌溉农业发展提供了可靠的水资源保障。本文根据中国冰川编目及近年来其它冰川研究成果和监测资料,对1960年以来新疆,主要是天山山区的冰川与冰川径流的变化进行了分析。分析表明,受全球气候变暖的影响,上世纪60年代以来至本世纪初,天山冰川的变化整体上以退缩为主,1963-2000年冰川面积平均减少12.5%。但受地理位置和地势条件的影响,不同流域的冰川变化存在着较大的区域性差异。随着冰川的强烈退缩和冰川融水的增加,使得近十余年来新疆天山地区大部分冰川补给河流径流量呈增加的趋势。     

吉尔吉斯斯坦水资源及其利用研究

吉尔吉斯斯坦是中亚水资源最丰富的国家之一,多条大型跨境河流均发源于境内.但由于吉尔吉斯斯坦山地面积占优势的国土地貌特点,其淡水资源大多以开发难度较大的高山冰川、湖水和深层地下水的形式存在,河川径流占全部水资源量的比重较低.在水资源的空间分布方面,河川径流量的大小与海拔呈正相关;湖泊主要分布在高海拔的山地;冰川的分布主要...     

近20年和田绿洲水资源变化及其驱动力分析

以和田绿洲20年遥感影像图、多年的野外实地调查资料和统计资料,分析了和田绿洲近20年以来水资源时空变化及其驱动力因子。应用RS/GIS进行空间分析,通过主成分分析、多元回归分析,最终定性的确定影响和田绿洲水资源变化的主要因素。遥感解释结果表明:在近20年过程中水资源各类型有明显的变化,其中湖泊和人工水库的变化最明显,水资源总体上表现减少的变化趋势,减少总水域面积为4317.313hm2。主成分析结果表明,人为社会因素、自然气候因素等两大类因索是影响和田绿洲水资源变化的两个主成分。主成分结果进一步表明对整个和田河净流量的时空变化而言,人为社会因素对水资源产生负作用,而自然气候因素呈现短期的积极作用。其主要原因:第一,和田绿洲是个典型的干旱地区,生态环境极为脆弱、水资源欠缺,人类盲目的生产活动更加剧了和田河净流量的大幅度减少;第二,和田河是冰川融水与降水混合补给的河流,冰川积雪融水是和田河径流重要补给来源,在气候变暖情况下,气温升高导致径流增加,但冰川积雪资源处于相对枯竭状况,河川径流量仅会呈现短时间增加,因此说气候变暖起着短期的积极作用。     

近40年来托木尔峰南坡三条监测冰川对气候变暖的响应

托木尔峰地区是中国现代冰川最大的作用中心之一。近四十年来,冰川消融加剧,退缩趋势明显,冰川融水径流增加。对托木尔峰南坡三条不同规模冰川的研究表明,面积减小厚度减薄是该区域冰川变化的主要趋势。受表碛覆盖影响,厚度减薄趋势显著,但末端退缩幅度差异很大。基于遥感监测资料以及实地考察数据,三条冰川自1964年以来面积分别减小了21.4%,15.8%和0.3%,末端平均退缩速率分别为41m·a~(-1)、30m·a~(-1)、1.5m·a~(-1)。大冰川大幅退缩对该区域水资源的短期和长期影响作用不容忽视。地形及表碛是影响冰川差异化消融的重要因子,温度升高是造成冰川退缩的重要驱动因素。     

新疆天山北麓奎屯河流域径流变化特征研究

奎屯河流域水资源总量为17.83×108m3,其中地表径流量为16.21×108m3,占水资源总量的90%以上。因此,研究径流补给来源及变化特征有助于掌握水资源的变化趋势,为水资源的开发利用提供可靠的依据。本文采用奎屯河流域各水文站径流系列资料,选取变差系数、年际极值比、集中度、集中期等参数,分析了奎屯河流域径流补给特性、来源、年内分配规律及年际变化特征。分析结果表明:奎屯河流域径流补给具有地带性和多样性特点,补给来源主要以冰川融水和雨水补给为主;年内分配极不均匀,集中程度高;年际变化相对稳定,变幅小,多年呈微弱增加趋势。     

气候变化对青海高原冰川资源的影响评价

青海高原位于青藏高原的东北部,区内有现代冰川2965条,冰川面积3675km2,冰储量2650×108m3。冰川面积占全国冰川总面积的6.19%,占西北冰川总面积的6.31%,是我国中低纬度地带山岳冰川较多的地区。青海高原山岳冰川具有稳定河川径流和调节作用,是青海高原水资源的重要组成部分。青海高原气候自20世纪80年代中后期出现由暖干向暖湿变化,对冰川生存和发展,提供了物质基础和环境条件。据预测到2050年青海高原温度上升2.2-2.6℃,降水量增加6~15%,青海高原现代冰川虽有退缩,但未来冰川不一定消失。     

1957-2009年祁连山老虎沟流域冰川变化遥感研究

利用1:50000地形图,4期Landsat TM遥感影像及2009年RTK冰川边界测量结果,获得了1957-2009年间老虎沟冰川流域的面积变化特征,结合气候变化背景资料,探讨了冰川面积变化对气候变化的响应。结果表明:目视解译是老虎沟流域冰川变化遥感研究的最优方法;1957-2009年间老虎沟冰川面积共减少了11.59%,以1994-1999年间的缩减最为显著,1999-2009年间的变化次之,1957-1994年变化最小。冰川缩减率与气温增加值成正比,与冰川规模成反比。该结果为进一步丰富冰川变化及水资源研究奠定了基础,具有重要的科研价值和社会意义。     

西藏羊卓雍错流域冰川-湖泊动态变化研究

基于landsat卫星数据,数字高程模型(DEM)数据以及气象数据,借助遥感和地理信息系统技术,定量分析了1977年到2012年西藏羊卓雍错流域内冰川、湖泊的变化及其原因。结果表明:35年间该流域冰川面积持续缩小,并且在2000年以后有加速退缩的趋势,共减少了58.45km2。湖泊经历了先缩小后增大再加速萎缩的过程,35年来湖泊共缩小了46.19km2。流域35年来年均气温上升明显,尤其是冬季气温上升幅度大,气温的升高是冰川快速退缩的主要原因;湖泊的消涨取决于降水和蒸发的综合作用,冰川和湖泊之间的水文关系不显著。该区域近年来有暖干化的趋势,水资源压力较大。     

东疆地区近46年气候变化趋势分析

运用哈密地区具有代表性的3个气象观测站1961-2006年的气温和降水资料,对哈密地区的气候变化作了分析。结果表明:近46年来哈密地区气温和降水都呈上升趋势,特别是上世纪90年代增温十分明显;以上世纪80年代后期为界,哈密地区气候分为冷、暖两个阶段,前为冷期,后为暖期,80年代后期到本世纪初,异常年份增加,表明气候变化越来越显著。     

Region-wide glacier area and mass budgets for the Shaksgam River Basin,Karakoram Mountains,during 2000–2016

The Karakoram Mountains are well known for their widespread surge-type glaciers and slight glacier mass gains.On the one hand,glaciers are one of the sensitive indicators of climate change,their area and thickness will adjust with climate change.On the other hand,glaciers provide freshwater resources for agricultural irrigation and hydroelectric generation in the downstream areas of the Shaksgam River Basin(SRB)in western China.The shrinkage of glaciers caused by climate change can significantly affect the security and sustainable development of regional water resources.In this study,we analyzed the changes in glacier area from 2000 to 2016 in the SRB using Landsat TM(Thematic Mapper)/ETM+(Enhanced Mapper Plus)/OLI(Operational Land Imager)images.It is shown that the SRB contained 472 glaciers,with an area of 1840.3 km2,in 2016.The glacier area decreased by 0.14%/a since 2000,and the shrinkage of glacier in the southeast,east and south directions were the most,while the northeast,north directions were the least.Debris-covered area accounted for 8.0%of the total glacier area.We estimated elevation and mass changes using the 1 arc-second SRTM(Shuttle Radar Topography Mission)DEM(Digital Elevation Model)(2000)and the resolution of 8 m HMA(High Mountain Asia)DEM(2016).An average thickness of 0.08(±0.03)m/a,or a slight mass increase of 0.06(±0.02)m w.e./a has been obtained since 2000.We found thinning was significantly lesser on the clean ice than the debris-covered ice.In addition,the elevation of glacier surface is spatially heterogeneous,showing that the accumulation of mass is dominant in high altitude regions,and the main mass loss is in low altitude regions,excluding the surge-type glacier.For surge-type glaciers,the mass may transfer from the reservoir to the receiving area rapidly when surges,then resulting in an advance of glacier terminus.The main surge mechanism is still unclear,it is worth noting that the surge did not increase the glacier mass in this study.     

Hydrological and water cycle processes of inland river basins in the arid region of Northwest China

The increasing shortage in water resources is a key factor affecting sustainable socio-economic development in the arid region of Northwest China(ARNC). Water shortages also affect the stability of the region's oasis ecosystem. This paper summarizes the hydrological processes and water cycle of inland river basins in the ARNC, focusing on the following aspects: the spatial-temporal features of water resources(including air water vapor resources, runoff, and glacial meltwater) and their driving forces; the characteristics of streamflow composition in the inland river basins; the characteristics and main controlling factors of baseflow in the inland rivers; and anticipated future changes in hydrological processes and water resources. The results indicate that:(1) although the runoff in most inland rivers in the ARNC showed a significant increasing trend, both the glaciated area and glacial ice reserves have been reduced in the mountains;(2) snow melt and glacier melt are extremely important hydrological processes in the ARNC, especially in the Kunlun and Tianshan mountains;(3) baseflow in the inland rivers of the ARNC is the result of climate change and human activities, with the main driving factors being the reduction in forest area and the over-exploitation and utilization of groundwater in the river basins; and(4) the contradictions among water resources, ecology and economy will further increase in the future. The findings of this study might also help strengthen the ecological, economic and social sustainable development in the study region.     

近年来祁连山中段冰川变化

基于遥感和实测的方法,对近50 a来祁连山中段,包括黑河流域和北大河流域的冰川变化特征进行了分析。研究表明：1956-2003年,祁连山中段所研究的910条冰川面积共缩小了21.7%。其中,黑河流域冰川面积缩小了29.6%,北大河流域冰川面积缩小了18.7%。小冰川面积变化较大冰川要大,其对气候变化的敏感性较强。由于祁连山中段东西跨度较大,气候和地形等因素的不同,直接造成了冰川变化的区域差异。近期野外考察发现,位于黑河上游的葫芦沟流域,1956-2010年冰川面积缩小了30.1%,近7 a冰川面积缩小的比率达到前期的近5倍,且其中的十一冰川由于消融严重,已经完全分离成2条独立的冰川。雪冰融水径流是该流域中重要的水源,在稳定河川径流、调节其年际变化和年内分配方面发挥着重要作用。     

近40年来托木尔峰南部地区气候及水文环境变化特征

西天山托木尔峰南部地区1987年以来出现了气候由暖干向暖湿转变趋势,在温度大幅上升的基础上,降水量和冰川融水量持续增加,相应的水文与生态环境也发生了显著的改善。本文在综合分析区域内水文、气象观测资料的基础上,对托木尔峰南部地区近40年来气温、降水以及径流量变化的基本趋势、不同海拔高度气温、降水变化差异,以及同一流域山区和平原区径流量变化的差异进行了深入分析。研究表明,受水汽输送途径和研究区地形地貌的影响,区域降水主要集中在托木尔峰南部山区;气候转型的原因是和北大西洋向东输送的水汽增加、西风气流加强有关;海拔2000m左右区域1987年以来气候向暖湿转化最为明显;近40年来由于气温升高,导致冰川消融补给河流量增加15%,但由于人类活动和粗放农业的发展,区域耗水量不断增加,导致塔里木河径流量不断减少,中下游生态环境急剧恶化。     

近23年来北天山冰川面积变化对气候的响应

利用1989、1998、2011年的Landsat TM、ETM+遥感影像为数据源,运用比值阈值法(b3/b5)结合目视解译方法,提取了北天山3个时段的冰川边界,并在地理信息系统技术支持下分析了该区域冰川的变化情况。研究表明:北天山整体变化幅度较大,冰川表现为萎缩的趋势,近23年来冰川面积减小了14.93%。分析认为,较大的变化率是由于研究区面积<1km2的冰川数量占总数的比重较大(近80%)造成的。同时分析了北天山冰川空间结构特征,<0.5km2面积的冰川对气候变化最为敏感,消融率最高,1～5km2面积的冰川对消融总量贡献比例最大。依据分形理论对未来冰川变化进行初步预测,分析认为研究区冰川的消融率仍保持比较高的状态。     

Climate change and its impacts on mountain glaciers during 1960-2017 in western China

Mountain glaciers are highly sensitive to climate change. In this paper, we systematically analyzed and discussed the responses of glaciers to climate change during 1960-2017 in western China by the methods of least squares and correlation analysis. Results show that the maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average temperature, and precipitation significantly increased in western China at the rates of 0.32°C/10a, 0.48°C/10a, 0.39°C/10a, and 11.20 mm/10a, respectively. However, the wind speed, hours of sunshine, snowfall, and snowy days displayed decreasing trends at the rates of -0.53 m/(s?10a), 3.72 h/10a, -2.90 mm/10a, and -0.10 d/10a, respectively. The annual percentage of glacier area decreased by approximately 0.42%, and the average glacier area decreased by 2.76 km²/a. Meanwhile, glacial shrinkages were greater in the Altay Mountains, Tanggula Mountains, and Qilian Mountains than in the other mountainous regions. Glacier accumulation decreased while melt volume increased at a rate of 2.7×10⁴ m³/a. The area of melt volume was 1.3 times that of the glacier accumulation area. The glacier mass balance (GMB) decreased substantially at a rate of -14.0 mm/a, whereas the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) showed an increasing trend at a rate of 0.5 mm/a. After 1997, the mass was smaller than -500.0 mm, indicating a huge loss in glaciers. Furthermore, relationships between ELA and GMB and various climatic factors were established. Temperature and precipitation demonstrated a significantly negative correlation, whereas wind speed and snowy days had significantly positive correlations with GMB. Snowy days also exhibited a remarkably negative correlation with ELA. The strong warming trend and less snowy days were thought to be the main factors leading to glacial melting, whereas the increase in precipitation, and reductions of sunshine hours and wind speed might slow glacial melting.     

Glacier variations and their response to climate change in an arid inland river basin of Northwest China

Glaciers are a critical freshwater resource of river recharge in arid areas around the world. In recent decades, glaciers have shown evidence of retreat due to climate change, and the accelerated ablation of glaciers and associated impacts on water resources have received widespread attention. Glacier variations result from climate change, so they can serve as an indicator of climate change. Considering the climatic differences in different elevation ranges, it is worthwhile to explore whether different responses exist between glacier area and air temperature in each elevation zone. In this study, we selected a typical arid inland river basin(Sugan Lake Basin) in the western Qilian Mountains of Northwest China to analyze the glacier variations and their response to climate change. The glacier area data from 1989 to 2016 were delineated using Landsat Thematic Mapper(TM), Enhanced TM+(ETM+) and Operational Land Imager(OLI) images. We compared the relationships between glacier area and air temperature at seven meteorological stations in the glacier-covered areas and in the Sugan Lake Basin, and further analyzed the relationship between glacier area and mean air temperature of the glacier surfaces in July–August in the elevation range of 4700–5500 m a.s.l. by the linear regression method and correlation analysis. In addition, based on the linear regression relationship established between glacier area and air temperature in each elevation zone, we predicted glacier areas under future climate scenarios during the periods of 2046–2065 and 2081–2100. The results indicate that the glaciers experienced a remarkable shrinkage from 1989 to 2016 with a shrinkage rate of –1.61 km2/a(–0.5%/a), and the rising temperature is the decisive factor dominating glacial retreat; there is a significant negative linear correlation between glacier area and mean air temperature of the glacier surfaces in July–August in each elevation zone from 1989 to 2016. The variations in glaciers are far less sensitive to changes in precipitation than to changes in air temperature. Due to the influence of climate and topographic conditions, the distribution of glacier area and the rate of glacier ablation first increased and then decreased in different elevation zones. The trend in glacier shrinkage will continue because air temperature will continue to increase in the future, and the result of glacier retreat in each elevation zone will be slightly slower than that in the entire study area. Quantitative glacier research can more accurately reflect the response of glacier variations to climate change, and the regression relationship can be used to predict the areas of glaciers under future climate scenarios. These conclusions can offer effective references for assessing glacier variations and their response to climate change in arid inland river basins in Northwest China as well as other similar regions in the world.     

Growth of the Sayram Lake and retreat of its water-supplying glaciers in the Tianshan Mountains from 1972 to 2011

Inland lakes and alpine glaciers are important constituents of water resources in arid and semiarid regions. Understanding their variations is critical for both an accurate evaluation of the dynamic changes of water resources and the retrieval of climatic information. On the basis of earlier researches, this study investigated the growth of the Sayram Lake and the retreat of its water-supplying glaciers in the Tianshan Mountains using long-term sequenced remote sensing images. Our results show that over the past 40 years, the surface area and the water level of the lake has increased by 12.0±0.3 km2 and 2.8 m, respectively, and the area of its water-supplying glaciers has decreased continuously since the early 1970 s with a total reduction of about –2.13±0.03 km2. Our study has indicative significance to the research of regional climate change.