2012年世界经济面临较多困难和不确定性

<正>在第四次全国金融工作会议闭幕后,中国人民银行行长周小川在接受新华社记者采访时说,从国际上看,欧债危机的演变、美国经济复苏的不确定性、新兴市场经济体增长的减速等问题都存在;从国内经济来看,受国际经济形势影响,出口增速有所放缓,经济增长下行压力明显增大。同时,影响物价上涨的因素仍然较多。     

(鮰)鱼:从出口到内销的逆转

2011年,外部经济环境不断发生变化,稳定和拓展海外水产品市场面临较多制约.尽管世界经济局部处于复苏态势,但美债危机的发生,欧洲主权债务风险升级、蔓延,日本自然灾害影响等各种不稳定、不确定因素轮番动荡冲击世界经济.发达国家推出扩大出口战略,力求改善失衡,贸易保护主义抬头,贸易摩擦有增无减.水产品贸易方面,由于发达国家之前进口关税较低,2011年期间则出现了一些贸易保护主义的现象,特别是对来自亚洲的淡水养殖产品反应比较强烈.年初针对越南的鲶鱼,年末针对我国的罗非鱼、对虾,贸易摩擦时有发生.受以上外部经济环境对水产品贸易影响,由于消费者对经济形势担心,国际水产品贸易受到影响.一些大型进口商、批发商和零售商非常谨慎,只购买目前所需产品,不签长期合约,导致许多水产品国际价格在今年表现出极大的不稳定.     

农产品产业内贸易状况及影响因素的实证研究——山东、广东、浙江三省的比较

山东、广东、浙江为我国农产品进出口贸易的三甲省份.运用产业内贸易的相关分析方法对三省农产品产业内贸易状况进行比较分析,分析表明,尽管三省的静态农产品贸易均表现为显著的产业内贸易形态,各省农产品产业内贸易的动态发展趋势却各不相同.综合各种因素排序,山东的农产品产业内贸易最发达,广东次之,浙江居末.以B指标为因变量进行的影响因素实证分析表明,农业在国民经济中的地位以及农业的科技投入和利用外资状况对农产品产业内贸易发展有重要影响.     

农产品产业内贸易状况及影响因素的实证研究——山东、广东、浙江三省的比较

山东、广东、浙江为我国农产品进出口贸易的三甲省份。运用产业内贸易的相关分析方法对三省农产品产业内贸易状况进行比较分析，分析表明，尽管三省的静态农产品贸易均表现为显著的产业内贸易形态，各省农产品产业内贸易的动态发展趋势却各不相同。综合各种因素排序，山东的农产品产业内贸易最发达，广东次之，浙江居末。以B指标为因变量进行的影响因素实证分析表明，农业在国民经济中的地位以及农业的科技投入和利用外资状况对农产品产业内贸易发展有重要影响。     

明年生猪价格全球大涨 或惟中国持续低位运行

<正>今年以来,受到大豆玉米价格的全球性上涨,饲料成本的高企,全球经融危机和欧债危机的发酵,导致猪肉消费市场的不振,生猪养猪行业出现了全球性亏损萎靡局面。据英国养猪协会近日发表报告称,从全球范围来看目前猪肉价格相比于养殖成本仍然过于低廉,许多养猪户已经无法承受饲料价格上涨带来的成本增加。为了避免出现越养越赔钱的局面,许多养     

豆粕:市场良好的基本面与宏观经济减速之间的博弈仍将持续

<正>因需求疲软及投资者对欧债危机解决的乐观情绪消退,10月28日芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)豆粕期货出现获利了结,11月豆粕收跌6.0美元,报收317.5美元/t。当日大连豆粕期货也出现高开低走,多头推高力度不足。另外,油厂调价进一步刺激出货意愿较     

但愿冬天早点过去

<正>养殖不理想,病害频发,鱼价偏低,大家对今年水产业的总结,无外乎如此。年底,行业里的盛会接踵而至。最近一次的罗非鱼产业论坛,来自国内外的100多人齐聚一堂,就今年罗非鱼的严峻形势进行了交流探讨。对于罗非鱼价格低位运行,行业人士大多将其归咎于国外市场的低迷,如欧债危机、美国金融危机等。然而,据有关数据显示,2012年前三季度,中国罗非鱼总出口     

改变渔业增长方式 促进生态文明建设

睛点龙飞去,珠还蛇返来,在这辞旧迎新之际,我们谨代表《科学养鱼》杂志社全体工作人员向大家致以节日的祝贺。祝大家在新的一年里阖家幸福、大展鹏程、事业发展;祝《科学养鱼》杂志取得新发展,为我国渔业发展作出新贡献。2012年,我国经济发展面临了巨大的困难。欧债危机反复恶化,全球经济增长放缓,国内经济增长面临较大下行压力。我国把国内生产总值(GDP)增长     

欧洲鳗鲡对不同生态因子的耐受反应及相关血液生化指标变化的研究

对欧鳗在不同生态因子条件下的急性耐受反应及相关的血液生化指标进行跟踪测定 ,结果表明 :①欧鳗的致死水温为 38 5℃ ;水温 4 5℃至 0℃时 ,进入僵卧的冬眠状态 ;耐受的盐度为 5 0 5‰ ;pH的耐受反应随水温的升高其反应的时间缩短 ,耐受的范围缩小 ,2 0℃时pH值为 11 32和 3 2 ,2 5℃时 pH值为 10 9和 3 7,30℃时 pH值为 10 70和 3 85。NH+ 4 -N和NO-2 -N的耐受反应均随着水温升高 ,其出现异常反应的时间缩短 ,NH+ 4 -N值达 5 5mg/L ,反应时间达 96h ,欧鳗仍未见死亡 ,NO-2 -N值在 30℃ ,反应时间达 98h ,其致死浓度为 4 0mg/L。②血液中反映肾功能的Cr值和反映机体应激状态的AST、CK值均随pH值的变化、NH4+ -N、NO-2 -N的升高而增加 ,而反映机体渗透压的Na+ 、Cl-数值则呈现下降的趋势 ,同时pH值的变化比NH4+ -N、NO-2 -N的升高对欧鳗血液中AST、CK值的增加的影响程度更大。     

对欧水产品贸易应关注RASFF的反应

由于欧盟成员国和欧洲经济区的一体化程度在不断扩大和加深，国际渔业协会在2008年的年度公报中再一次提醒发展中国家在对欧水产品贸易中应即时注意RASFF的反应。RASFF即欧盟食品和饲料快速预警系统，它是一个覆盖连接欧盟25个成员国和欧洲经济区的挪威、冰岛及列支登土敦、欧盟委员会健康消费者保护总署、食品安全局、欧洲自由贸易联盟等相关国家和机构在内的网络系统，     

Marine ornamental fish imports in the European Union: an economic perspective

The marine ornamental fish trade (MOFT) is a worldwide industry that targets a remarkable quantity and diversity of reef fish species and provides an important source of revenue for exporting countries, particularly developing nations in Southeast Asia. Here we provide, for the first time, an economic assessment of the MOFT to the European Union (EU), one of the key players of the marine aquarium trade, along with the USA and Japan. Data from EUROSTAT (the European Statistical System) was analysed for the MOFT between 2000 and 2011. Results show that this industry was not affected by the economic crisis and accounted for a total of 135 million Euros during the study period. Both the UK and Indonesia have been reinforcing their importance as leading importer and exporter countries, respectively. The long‐term temporal pattern of the MOFT by EU and non‐EU countries is described, as well as its diversity and evenness between importing and exporting countries. The present economic assessment also identifies the key players of this industry, and ultimately contributes to management and conservation practices that may enhance the sustainable use of world's coral reefs.     

欧盟共同渔业政策发展历程及最新改革浅析

欧盟共同渔业政策自1983年正式实施以来,对促进欧盟政治、经济一体化、发展渔业经济、改善渔区人民生活水平、促进水产品贸易标准化、提高水产品质量、保护消费者健康和环境以及增强欧盟渔业国际竞争力发挥了积极作用。但30年来,随着欧盟渔业的发展和新问题的出现,共同渔业政策也经历了多次调整和改革,如2002年的改革、2008年应对燃油危机措施、2010年的IUU法规,以及最新的2013年改革。本文将从欧盟共同渔业政策的起源、早期内容和改革历程及最新的改革内容等方面来详细介绍共同渔业政策的演变,并对其最新改革方向进行总结预测,以期为我国渔业政策发展提供借鉴。     

浙江舟山水产业投资非洲之策略研究

在全球金融危机背景下，各国纷纷采取措施甚至贸易保护主义措施来拯救本国经济，贸易保护主义浪潮再次高涨。我国水产品出口遭受了更加苛刻的贸易壁垒，作为水产品出口主要区域浙江舟山面临着严峻的挑战。伴随着国家“走出去”政策的提出，加上主要出口国市场严峻形势，本地资源捉襟见肘，舟山水产业积极走进非洲。文章从宏观和微观角度分析了浙江舟山水产业走进非洲，尝试为舟山水产业走进非洲提出发展性建议。     

欧洲虾产品市场的贸易格局分析

文章结合贸易统计数据从总体和分国别角度分析了欧洲虾产品的贸易特征和竞争格局。研究结果表明，欧洲内部虾产品贸易活跃；欧盟是虾产品主要消费市场，其中西班牙、法国、英国和意大利是主要进口国；厄瓜多尔、印度、阿根廷、中国、泰国、孟加拉国和印尼是主要出口国，以出口养殖虾为主的南美洲国家和亚洲国家在虾产品出口中逐步占据主导地位；主要进口国市场对虾产品偏好的不同，导致从各主要来源国进口量、价格、产品类别的显著差异.     

后危机时代中国粮食对外贸易的政策选择

中国在2007～2008年的国际粮食危机中没有受到冲击，主要原因是中国已经建立了较为健全的粮食安全系统，具有较低的粮食对外贸易依存度。但仍存在着一些制约粮食安全的因素和隐患，中国利用国际粮食市场虽然在经济上具有可行性，但是国际粮源的可供性、政治上的可靠性、国际规则的有效性都难以保障。因此坚持95％的粮食基本自给政策，实施“宽进严出”策略，完善粮食贸易管理措施，实施粮食进口贸易伙伴国的多元化，就成为中国粮食对外贸易政策的基本选择。     

基于收入来源视角的青岛市农民增收问题研究

当前农民收入中农业收入和非农收入已平分秋色，影响农民收入增长不仅受农业内部因素影响还受外部环境的影响。本文以青岛市为例，从农民收入的来源方面入手，运用灰色关联理论通过对1994～2009年青岛市农民收入数据分析，探讨影响青岛市农民收入的主要因素。分析结果认为，近年来青岛市农民农业收入的持续增长主要得益于农业的持续发展以及农产品价格上涨和农业结构调整。但整体看来，农业生产力水平不高，农业发展缺乏有效资金投入；二三产业发展对农民非农收入有重要影响；农村基础设施建设和城镇化发展速度对非农收入影响比较大；受农民非农就业机会以及文化素质制约非农收入的持续提高面临风险。建议通过提高农业生产效益，加大对农业和农村的财政扶持，加快推进城镇化进程。鼓励农村二、三产业发展，加强教育投入等措施促进青岛市农民增收。     

SIMULATING THE IMPACTS OF TRADE RESTRICTIONS: AN APPLICATION TO THE EUROPEAN SALMON TRADE

During the last decade there has been a number of conflicts in relation to the trade of salmon in the EU. A 5-year agreement between Norway and the EU including an import constraint and a voluntary minimum import price agreement for exporter just expired, with a 13% tariff to be paid by exporters that do not accept the agreement. A year after the agreement expired, there are again calls for safeguard measure to protect EU-producers. We investigate the expected welfare effects of this tariff by analyzing a general equilibrium demand curve. In contrast to earlier studies we use a derived demand approach rather the consumer demand as most available data are at the trade level. The results indicate that only Norwegian exporters are beneficial to target for EU producers. The total welfare effect of the tariff depends critically on the supply structure of EU and Norwegian salmon.     

Are farmed European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) prices in European Union markets affected by Turkish exports of farmed European seabass?

Abstract

Often, increases in farmed seabass and seabream production surpluses from Turkey and Greece have been blamed to lead to price declines and aquaculture sector crises. In this study, we investigate whether Turkish exports of farmed European seabass affect prices of European Union (EU) farmed European seabass. This is done by examining the existence of market integration between the prices of Turkish exports of farmed European seabass into the EU and the prices of farmed European seabass commercialized in wholesale markets in Barcelona, Madrid and Paris. Market integration and competition studies in fisheries and aquaculture products have generally focused on analyzing substitutability between species and between wild and farmed conspecifics. Few studies have focused on analyzing market integration between different geographic areas. Market integration analyses between different geographic areas have proven useful in anti-dumping investigations. Results show the lack of market integration between EU imports of Turkish farmed European seabass and main EU wholesale markets; in other words, farmed European seabass prices in EU markets do not seem to be affected by export prices of Turkish farmed seabass.     

影响中国农产品总产量的主要因素分析——基于农户经营方式的视角

从农户经营方式的角度看,弱质劳动力务农、劳动力兼业经营和农业规模经营是影响中国农产品总产量的三个主要因素。采用国内外的相关数据分析这三个因素对农产品总产量的影响,结果表明,不同质劳动力利用和农业劳动力兼业不一定会影响农产品总产量,农户的粮食规模种植模式也不是必然提高国家的粮食总产量。由此得出,中国农产品总产量水平主要是由当前技术水平所决定的;农业规模经营方式中,如果农户收入最大化通过总的规模收益实现,不利于国家主要农产品安全目标的实现;家庭农场的建立应趋利避免害,避免复种制度改变对农产品总产量的影响。     

An assessment of the economic contribution of EU aquaculture production and the influence of policies for its sustainable development

This review paper examines the structure of the EU aquaculture sector, the contribution it makes to the EU economy and the policy environment for past and future development. The primary analysis uses statistical data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations which has been re-categorized according to species groups established by the European Aquaculture Technology and Innovation Platform (EATiP) and by culture system type using expert knowledge. Additional data sources for the analysis include the European Market Observatory for Fisheries and Aquaculture Products (EUMOFA) and the European Commission Scientific, Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries. EU aquaculture production was 1.34 million tonnes in 2012 with a first sale value of €4.76 billion. Shellfish comprised 45 % by volume and 28 % by value; marine fish 30 % by volume and 53 % by value; and freshwater fish 25 % by volume and 19 % by value. The total production volume has actually fallen slightly from 1.4 million tonnes in 2000, whilst the value has increased significantly from 2.79 billion in 2000, mainly due to a growth in Atlantic salmon production. Five countries accounted for around 78 % of the direct output value of EU aquaculture in 2012, the UK, France, Greece, Italy and Spain. Around 50 % of the direct output value was generated using marine cage systems (28 % by volume), whilst less than 3 % of value was generated in recirculated aquaculture systems (<1.5 % by volume). Around 5 % of value was contributed by extensive to semi-intensive inland and coastal pond systems. STECF (2014) estimates there are between 14,000 and 15,000 aquaculture enterprises in the EU employing around 80,000 people, approximately 40,000 full-time equivalent (FTE). The greatest number of jobs (FTE) is provided by the freshwater pond and suspended shellfish sectors due to much lower productivity figures. This could be seen as a social benefit in rural and coastal regions, but corresponding low wages could also discourage young entrants to the industry and lead to dependency on migrant workers. Where efficiencies can be improved through capital investment there is likely to be significant scope for consolidation of ownership as can be observed in the marine fish sector. The output from aquaculture has to find a place within the wider fish and seafood market where volumes are generally inversely related to price. The potential growth of the sector is therefore constrained both in relation to the overall market and with respect to competition from substitute products. These include product from EU capture fisheries as well as imports from third countries (sourced from aquaculture and capture fisheries). Whilst interactions between individual products can be hard to demonstrate, any increase in production costs is likely to lead to lower output volumes, whilst improvements in production efficiency can lead to increased output volumes. With around 60 % of EU fish and seafood supply obtained through imports, and little prospect of increasing outputs from capture fisheries, EU policy is generally supportive of sustainable aquaculture development for reasons of food security and economic development. The underlying basis for this is maximizing the quality and health benefits of farmed products, whilst improving resource efficiency and minimizing impacts. This is expressed through funding support for research and technological development and structural funds to the fisheries and aquaculture industries. However, constraints to growth also exist in the form of regulatory barriers and costs that reduce industry competitiveness. Changing market requirements are also a factor. Prospects for growth have been assessed using the results of EATiP stakeholder workshops combined with the analysis of the sector by system type. These suggest an overall increase in production by 55 % is possible by 2030 based mainly on expansion of marine cage-based farming using larger systems in more exposed sites and similarly shellfish farming using larger-scale suspended systems. Expansion of recirculated aquaculture systems appears likely based on entrepreneurial and European policy for research and technological development activity, although constrained by currently low competitiveness.