不同强度拉尼娜事件下东海鲐栖息地的时空变动

鲐(Scomber japonicus)是一种重要的经济鱼种, 其栖息地环境易受到气候变化的影响。本研究依据 1950— 2015 年 2.5 m、25 m、50 m 水层温度数据以及 Ni?o3.4 指数, 计算东海鲐栖息地适宜性指数(HSI), 对比分析不同强度拉尼娜事件期间鲐栖息地的时空变动。结果表明, 拉尼娜事件期间鲐渔场适宜栖息地面积高于正常气候条件。 弱拉尼娜事件和中强度拉尼娜事件期间, 鲐渔场各水层温度偏低, 适宜的温度面积比例较高, 栖息地适宜性较高; 而强拉尼娜事件期间, 鲐渔场各水层温度偏高, 适宜的温度面积比例较低, 栖息地适宜性较低。相较于强拉尼娜事件, 弱拉尼娜事件和中强度拉尼娜事件期间, 适宜栖息地的经度重心偏东, 纬度重心偏南, 不适宜栖息地的经度重心偏西, 纬度重心偏北。此外, 鲐渔场各水层最适宜温度等值线在强拉尼娜事件下偏西北方向, 推测不同强度拉尼娜下鲐栖息地空间分布差异, 可能是由于各水层最适宜温度显著的月间分布差异所致。研究表明, 不同强度拉尼娜事件对东海鲐栖息地的影响具有显著差异。     

不同气候模态下秘鲁外海茎柔鱼栖息地的季节性分布

茎柔鱼（Dosidicus gigas）为环境敏感型头足类，气候的多元变化促使茎柔鱼栖息地发生变动。本研究利用海表温度（SST）和海表面高度（SSHA）两个关键环境因子构建栖息地适宜性指数（HSI）模型，结合太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）指数，分析1950-2015年不同气候模态下秘鲁外海茎柔鱼栖息地的季节性分布规律。结果发现，PDO冷期茎柔鱼栖息地适宜性较高；而PDO暖期栖息地适宜性较低。相较于PDO冷期，PDO暖期下茎柔鱼适宜栖息地分布向东南移动。适宜栖息地的分布位置与适宜的SST和SSHA的重叠区域重合，表明两个关键环境因子与栖息地分布显著相关。此外，适宜栖息地指数距平值与PDO指数的年际变化呈显著负相关关系。春季茎柔鱼渔场栖息地适宜性高于冬季，且冬季适宜栖息地的分布相较春季偏东南方向。茎柔鱼渔场6-11月适宜的SST和最适宜的SST在经度和纬度上的分布存在显著差异，春季（9-11月）最适宜的SST分布逐月向西北方向移动；冬季（6-8月）最适宜的SST分布逐月向东南方向移动。推测不同气候模态下茎柔鱼栖息地季节性分布差异，可能是由于最适宜的SST显著的月间分布差异所致。研究表明，不同PDO时期下茎柔鱼栖息地适宜性具有显著季节性差异，其差异可由环境因子的月间变动来解释。     

2015年超强厄尔尼诺事件对西北太平洋柔鱼渔场变动的影响

为研究超强厄尔尼诺事件对西北太平洋海域柔鱼（Ommastrephes bartarmii）资源量变动的影响，并分析柔鱼栖息地在极端气候条件下的变化规律，根据上海海洋大学鱿钓科学技术组提供的中国柔鱼生产捕捞数据，比较2008年正常气候年份与2015年超强厄尔尼诺年份的单位捕捞努力量渔获量（CPUE）、产量、捕捞努力量以及渔场纬度重心（LATG）的变化；利用栖息地适宜性指数模型对西北太平洋柔鱼栖息地的海表温度（SST）、光合有效辐射范围（PAR）和海表面高度距平（SSHA）3个关键环境因子进行分析。渔业数据时间为2008年和2015年9—11月，数据覆盖范围为36°N~48°N、150°E~170°E。结果发现，相对于2008年正常年份，2015年超强厄尔尼诺事件下的CPUE明显降低，且LATG向南偏移；此外，2015年适宜的SST和PAR范围均显著降低，导致适宜的栖息地面积与正常年份相比大幅减少；最适宜的SST和PAR等值线向南偏移，导致有利的栖息地纬度位置向南移动。研究认为，2015年超强厄尔尼诺事件发生时，柔鱼渔场环境不适于柔鱼生长，适宜栖息地面积减少且向南移动，导致该年份柔鱼资源丰度骤减，渔场向南偏移。     

智利外海智利竹筴鱼与茎柔鱼栖息地变动对ENSO事件响应的差异

探究同海域物种栖息地变动的同步性有利于有效利用和管理多个关联物种资源。本研究利用 2011—2016 年秋季智利外海茎柔鱼(Dosidicus gigas)渔业数据及海表面高度距平值(SSHA)、海表面盐度(SSS)、400 m 水层温度 (Temp_400 m)等环境数据和 2013—2016 年秋季智利竹筴鱼(Trachurus murphyi)渔业生产数据及海表面温度(SST)、 混合层深度(MLD)、400 m 水层温度(Temp_400 m)构建了不同权重的栖息地模型, 各种类选取最优栖息地模型并利用 2017 年数据进行验证。此外, 基于最优模型分别追算 1950—2017 年智利竹筴鱼(Trachurus murphyi)与茎柔鱼栖息地适宜性指数(HSI), 并分析其对 ENSO(El Ni?o-Southern oscillation, 厄尔尼诺与南方涛动)事件响应的差异。结果表明, 智利竹筴鱼与茎柔鱼最优栖息地模型均能较好地预测两者潜在分布。厄尔尼诺事件期间, 各环境变量表现为海温偏高, 海面高度空间上由东北向西南方向递减, 混合层较浅, 智利北部海表面盐度高于南部; 物种生境变化表现为智利竹筴鱼适宜面积增加, 最适 HSI 重心向西移动, 而茎柔鱼适宜面积减小, 最适 HSI 重心向西南方向移动。拉尼娜事件期间各环境变量表现为海温偏低, 海面高度空间上由东北向西南方向递增, 混合层加深, 海表面盐度变化与厄尔尼诺期间相似且差异较小; 此事件期间, 智利竹筴鱼适宜面积于西南方向显著减少, 最适 HSI 重心向东南方向偏移, 而茎柔鱼适宜面积于高纬度方向上增幅显著, 最适 HSI 重心向东北方向移动。智利竹筴鱼与茎柔鱼适宜面积在不同 ENSO 事件下变化差异可能与东南太平洋智利海域分布的海流及两者摄食对象生物量的变化有关。     

厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件对秘鲁外海茎柔鱼渔场分布的影响

研究大范围环境变化对茎柔鱼渔场分布的影响,对指导渔业科学生产、掌握资源变动规律具有重要意义。根据2005—2009年我国鱿钓船鱿钓生产数据,结合表温(SST)、0~200 m垂直水温(15 m水层温度T15,50 m水层温度T50,100 m水层温度T100,200 m水层温度T200)等资料,研究厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件对秘鲁外海茎柔鱼渔场分布的影响。结果表明,2006和2009年10—12月受厄尔尼诺影响,作业渔场分布在79°W~84°W、10°W~17°S海域,最适SST为19~22℃;2007年10—12月受拉尼娜影响,作业渔场分布在81°W~85°W、10°W~14°S海域,最适SST为17~20℃,中心渔场作业范围相比厄尔尼诺年份向北偏移1°~2°,平均SST降低2℃。各层水温分布表明,2007年10—12月T15和T50水温均明显高于2006年10—12月,最大温度差值为6~9℃;T100和T200温度差别较小,最大温度差值为1℃。水温垂直结构结果表明,2006年10—12月作业渔场未形成明显的上升流,主要分布在外洋水与沿岸水交汇处;2007年10—12月的沿岸一侧形成了势力强劲的上升流,作业渔场主要分布在上升流等温线密集交汇处。此外,由于受上升流的加强使栖息水层营养盐丰富,更有利于茎柔鱼索饵,导致茎柔鱼渔场分布也出现一定转移。研究表明,秘鲁外海中心渔场位置的变化与厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件具有密切关系。     

基于垂直水温因子的秘鲁外海茎柔鱼春、夏季栖息地分布

为了研究温度变动对茎柔鱼(Dosidicus gigas)资源丰度和栖息地的分布的影响, 利用 2006—2015 年秘鲁外海春夏季节(9 月至翌年 2 月)茎柔鱼渔业捕捞数据结合中上层垂直水温数据(0 m, 50 m, 100 m 和 150 m)建立栖息地适宜性(habitat suitability index, HSI)模型, 分析秘鲁外海茎柔鱼渔场以及栖息地的时空分布。通过计算适宜栖息地内的茎柔鱼资源量占比, 并用 2014—2015 年的数据进行验证。结果发现, 基于垂直水温因子和算术平均法的栖息地模型可以较好模拟出茎柔鱼栖息地适宜性指数。空间相关分析结果显示, 秘鲁外海水域各水层水温与栖息地适宜性呈现负相关关系。茎柔鱼的 CPUE 和适宜栖息地面积的变化相对平稳, 没有明显的年间和月间差异, 两者之间呈现显著的正相关关系。茎柔鱼的渔场重心和栖息地重心存在显著的年间和月间变化, 均呈现向东南方向移动的趋势, 同时春季适宜栖息地面积与夏季相比明显减少。茎柔鱼渔场的经纬度重心的月间和年际变化与栖息地经纬度重心的移动具有一致性, 两者之间呈现明显的正相关。研究表明, 茎柔鱼的资源丰度与适宜栖息地密切相关, 其适宜栖息地存在明显的年间和月间变化, 这可能是造成秘鲁外海茎柔鱼时空分布变动的重要原因。     

秘鲁外海茎柔鱼栖息地时空分布及对环境因子的响应差异

根据中国远洋渔业数据中心提供的 2012—2018 年东太平洋秘鲁外海茎柔鱼(Dosidicus gigas)捕捞数据, 结合该海域环境数据, 包括海表面温度(sea surface temperature, SST)、海表面盐度(sea surface salinity, SSS)、叶绿素 a 浓度(chlorophyll-a, Chl-a)、净初级生产力(net primary production, NPP)、光合有效辐射(photosynthetically active radiation, PAR)、涡旋动能(eddy kinetic energy, EKE)和海平面异常(sea level anomaly, SLA), 利用最大熵模型研究了茎柔鱼栖息地的月间时空变化及环境因子的影响差异。结果显示: 1—8 月渔场纬度重心向北移动, 9—12 月向南偏移。渔场经度重心主要在 80°W~82°W 之间移动, 此外, 适宜栖息地重心与渔场重心变化一致。通过比较贡献率大小发现环境因子对茎柔鱼栖息地影响程度具有显著月间差异, 但基本以 SST、SSS、NPP 和 PAR 对栖息地影响最大。 依据环境因子响应曲线估算的关键环境因子适宜范围与茎柔鱼适宜性较高栖息地基本重叠。研究表明, 利用最大熵模型模拟茎柔鱼栖息地具有较高精度, 茎柔鱼栖息地时空分布存在明显的月间变化, 且受环境因子影响显著。     

拉尼娜（2007年）和厄尔尼诺（2015年）事件对东海日本鲭栖息地时空分布的影响#br#

根据上海海洋大学中国远洋渔业数据中心提供的日本鲭(Scomber japonicus)生产捕捞数据,结合海表面温度(SST)、海表面高度(SSH)以及净初级生产力(NPP)3个关键因子,利用算术平均法进行栖息地适应性指数(HSI)建模分析,并选择2007年拉尼娜年份和2015年厄尔尼诺年份,对比研究东海日本鲭栖息地的年间差异。结果发现,拉尼娜年份(2007年)日本鲭的产量、捕捞努力量、CPUE(单位捕捞努力量渔获量)均高于厄尔尼诺年份(2015年),且渔场纬度重心(LATG)相对2015年偏北。对比渔场环境条件发现,2007年和2015年7—9月SST、SSH和NPP在空间分布上具有显著性差异。此外,栖息地建模结果显示,2007年各环境因子均有利于形成较好的日本鲭栖息地;且2007年7—9月适宜栖息地(HSI>0.6海域范围)面积明显大于2015年,其栖息地位置相较于2015年明显偏北,这导致2007年的渔场纬度重心比2015年偏北。研究表明,2007年拉尼娜事件和2015年厄尔尼诺事件对东海日本鲭适宜栖息地大小及其空间分布具有显著影响。     

厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜发生期太平洋褶柔鱼秋生群资源丰度的响应研究

太平洋褶柔鱼(Todarodes pacificus)是短生命周期的重要经济头足类, 其资源丰度易受气候和海洋环境变量的影响。本研究利用 1977―2015 年日本与韩国的太平洋褶柔鱼秋生群渔业统计数据, 结合海表面温度(sea surface temperature, SST)、50 m 水层温度(Temp_50 m)和 100 m 水层温度(Temp_100 m)等海洋环境数据, 探究太平洋褶柔鱼资源丰度[以 CPUE (单位捕捞努力量渔获量)为指标]和补充量在不同厄尔尼诺和南方涛动 ENSO (EI Ni?o-Southern oscillation)事件下的变动差异。结果表明, 相较于厄尔尼诺事件, 拉尼娜事件下太平洋褶柔鱼渔场内SST、 Temp_50 m 和 Temp_100 m 升高, 其在空间上呈由西北向东南、由北向南递增的变化趋势, 且大于 20 ℃的海温分布面积增加, 三者距平值均值及正值在空间上的分布面积均大于其在厄尔尼诺事件期间的。厄尔尼诺事件下的太平洋褶柔鱼秋生群资源丰度及其补充量小于其在拉尼娜事件期间的, 且资源丰度与 SST、Temp_50 m 和 Temp_100 m 间呈正相关。研究认为, 不同 ENSO 事件下太平洋褶柔鱼渔场海温环境存在明显差异, 其资源丰度及补充量与气候影响下的海温变动有关。     

西北太平洋柔鱼栖息地适宜性变动研究

柔鱼(Ommastrephes bartramii)是西北太平洋重要的经济头足类,其栖息地受到气候变化的显著影响。根据中国鱿钓渔船在38°～45°N、140°～160°E作业渔场内的生产数据以及卫星遥感数据,利用信息增益技术选取关键环境因子,以单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)作为适应性指数,使用算术平均法(AM)和联乘法(GM)分别建立综合栖息地指数模型,对比异常环境条件下(厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件)柔鱼栖息地适宜性变动情况。结果表明,1998年La Ni■a事件发生时,西北太平洋传统作业渔场温度升高,海表温度(SST)相对正常年份2008年平均上升2. 72℃;而2009年El Ni■o事件发生时,SST相对正常年份降低0. 45℃。栖息地综合指数模型结果表明,1998年作业比重主要分布于在栖息地指数(HSI)大于0. 8的范围内,作业比重达到80%;2008年作业比重主要分布在HSI值0. 6～0. 8和0. 8～1. 0之间,所占比重在30%～50%左右; 2009年作业比重主要分布在HSI值0. 4～0. 6、0. 6～0. 8和0. 8～1. 0之间,作业比重平均约为32%。此外HSI值低于0. 2的区间面积随着La Ni■a事件、正常年份和El Ni■o事件递增,而HSI值大于0. 4的区间面积随着La Ni■a事件、正常年份和El Ni■o事件递减。研究认为,1998年La Ni■a事件发生时西北太平洋海域柔鱼适宜栖息地面积增加,而2009年El Ni■o事件发生时柔鱼栖息地适宜性变差,导致柔鱼产量变低。     

Juvenile chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) growth on the central California coast during the 1998 El Niño and 1999 La Niña

We assessed growth in subyearling chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) during the 1998 El Niño and 1999 La Niña in the Gulf of the Farallones, a region of the continental shelf off central California seaward of the Golden Gate and the southernmost ocean entry point for the species in North America. Juvenile salmon demonstrated greater growth during this strong El Niño, when water temperature anomalies of more than +3°C were recorded at local buoys, than during the similarly strong 1999 La Niña. Slopes of regressions of weight on length, length on age, and weight on age were all significantly greater for juvenile salmon during the 1998 El Niño compared with those in the 1999 La Niña. Daily otolith increment widths, an estimator of somatic growth, corroborated population data. Between June 1 and August 9, mean increment widths for juvenile chinook salmon in 1998 were 3.54 ± 0.03 μm, significantly larger than the 3.13 ± 0.03 μm found in juveniles during the same time interval in 1999. Condition factor for juvenile chinook salmon entering the ocean at the Golden Gate was the same in both years, but became significantly greater in ocean fish during the 1998 El Niño than in ocean fish during the 1999 La Niña. Energy storage was significantly greater in ocean juvenile salmon during the 1998 El Niño as well. Mean triacylglycerol/cholesterol ratios increased following ocean entry in 1998, whereas they declined in ocean juveniles during 1999. Thus, not only was growth better in the El Niño period compared with La Niña, but lipid accumulation was also better. Oceanographic data for 1998 indicated elevated temperatures, lower salinity, greater freshwater outflow from San Francisco Bay, northerly flowing coastal currents, and positive upwelling index anomalies. This combination of environmental factors resulted in greater zooplankton productivity that, in conjunction with higher temperatures, allowed metabolic processes to enhance growth. Although El Niño events have certainly produced large-scale, and often adverse, effects on ecosystems, the results of this study emphasize the importance of local oceanographic conditions to growth and other physiological and ecological processes.     

Mesopelagic fish larval assemblages during El Niño‐southern oscillation (1997–2001) in the southern part of the California Current

Mesopelagic species are the principal constituents of larval fish assemblages inhabiting the southerly California Current region. Seasonal larval abundance is influenced by circulation of the California Current and subtropical Countercurrent, including regional changes of the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics during the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation. This study examines the mesopelagic fish larvae distribution and abundance patterns between seasons and years, with the aim of describing the mesopelagic larval assemblages during dynamic environmental changes induced by El Niño (1997–1998) and the rapid transition to La Niña (1998–2000) along the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula (25–31°N). Despite large oceanographic variability, larval assemblages varied principally on a seasonal basis, related to reproductive periods and the north–south gradient influenced by the seasonal pattern of the California Current. An increased diversity, number of species, and abundance of tropical species was noticeable during the northward expansion of warm‐water taxa during El Niño, principally in the northern areas (Ensenada and Punta Baja). After El Niño, population adjustments and rapid recovery occurred during La Niña conditions, which reflected seasonal differences in the mesopelagic community structure that are closely related to the seasonal pattern of oceanic currents.     

冬季东海外海鱼类群落特征及其对拉尼娜事件的响应

根据2004年12月和2008年12月东海区渔业资源底拖网调查资料,利用多元分析[非度量多变量排序(nMDS)、SIMPER],对比分析正常年份(2004年)和拉尼娜(La Ni(n)a)年份(2008年)不同生态属性鱼类的变化特征,探究鱼类群落结构对拉尼娜事件的响应模式.结果表明,2008年冬季与2004年冬季相比,调查水域的种类组成由45种增加至61种,其中,暖水性种类比例减少,暖温性种类比例增加.主要优势种年间变化不大,仍为带鱼(Trichiurus japonicus)和小黄鱼(Larimichthys polyactis),两者资源密度之和分别占总资源密度的59.95％和55.16％.不同生态属性种类的资源密度发生了显著变化,以带鱼(Trichiurus japonicus)为代表的暖水性鱼类资源密度下降,而以小黄鱼(Larimichthys polyactis)为代表的暖温性鱼类资源密度增加.研究水域生物丰富度指数(R)、多样性指数(H')和均匀度指数(J))的均值均有所升高,但独立样本t检验表明,年间3指数间无显著性差异(P＞0.05).在捕捞压力保持相对稳定的情况下,群落组成的变化可能与拉尼娜事件有关,未来需要掌握不同种类对拉尼娜事件的响应模式.     

Ecological variations and El Niño effects off the southern coast of the Korean Peninsula during the last three decades

To explore ecosystem response to environmental changes, we investigated interannual and decadal changes in the marine ecosystem using data collected from the southern coast of the Korean Peninsula during the 1960s–1990s. Water properties such as sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity in April did not show large variation during the 1970s, but a relatively cool water mass appeared from the early to mid 1980s and a warm water mass replaced it after 1989. Chl a concentration in April, which was converted from Secchi disc information, was low (mean=1.18 mg m⁻³) during the period 1968–1980 excluding 1974, but there was a period of greater biomass for 7 years from 1981 (mean=2.78 mg m⁻³). A negative correlation ( r =−0.387, P  < 0.05) between SST and chl a in April matched high chl a during the low-SST period in the early and mid 1980s. Annual zooplankton biomass ranged from 37 to 132 mg m⁻³, but abundance was frequently high after 1984 and low during 1972–1982. The most representative pelagic fishes in the South Sea seemed to respond to the increase in planktonic organisms. Anchovy, mackerel and sardine increased in abundance since the mid 1970s. High catches of anchovy and mackerel lasted until the 1990s, whereas sardine decreased after the early 1990s. From the matrix of simple correlation coefficient, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) exhibited a high correlation with SST in December in the study area ( P  < 0.05). Catches of anchovy and mackerel were positively correlated with chl a and zooplankton during their early life periods, as well as with SST in December.     

Influences of El Niño on assemblages of mesopelagic fish larvae along the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur

Seasonal assemblages of mesopelagic fish larvae and changes related with environmental factors (plankton biomass, sea surface temperature anomaly, upwelling, and the multivariate El Niño index) were investigated. From 1982 to 1987, 16 oceanographic cruises were carried out along the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur, Mexico. Larvae of 42 mesopelagic fish taxa were collected. Larval abundance was highly variable during the studied period, but summer months coincided with higher abundance (>200 larvae under 10 m²). Larval assemblages were dominated by three of the most common species of tropical (Vinciguerria lucetia, Diogenichthys laternatus) and subtropical affinity (Triphoturus mexicanus). A group of species of tropical affinity (Diplophos proximus, Diaphus pacificus, Benthosema panamense) was useful for distinguishing the 1982–84 El Niño event, and an assemblage of larvae of temperate affinity (Symbolophorus californiensis, Melamphaes lugubris, Bathylagus ochotensis, Leuroglossus stilbius, Protomyctophum crockeri) characterized ‘normal’ years (mid‐1984 to mid‐1987).     

Fluctuation in abundance of larval anchovy and environmental conditions in coastal waters off south-western Taiwan as associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Monthly abundance ( CPUE ) of larval anchovy in the coastal waters off south-western Taiwan from 1980 to 1992 (156 months) fluctuated at intervals corresponding to the 4.3- and 2.2-year cycles of the southern oscillation index ( SOI ). Also, CPUE was significantly correlated with sea surface temperature with a time lag of 3 months and nearly significantly to river flow with a time lag of 4 months, which in turn correlated with SOI at lags of 13–14 months (cross-correlation and transfer function analyses). The results suggested the presence of linkage between recruitment of the larvae and ENSO episodes, perhaps through oceanographic and meteorological conditions that affect coastal upwelling and river discharge. The Kuroshio Current, which is the western extension of the North Equatorial Current, may be one of the important mechanisms of ENSO's teleconnections affecting local climate and fisheries in the western Pacific region.     

Climate‐induced year‐class fluctuations of whitemouth croaker Micropogonias furnieri (Pisces,Sciaenidae) in the Río de la Plata estuary,Argentina–Uruguay

The whitemouth croaker, Micropogonias furnieri, is exploited by coastal fisheries in the Plata estuary. Its age structure shows the predominance of certain year classes, which are indicative of recruitment variability. The estuary is affected by river discharge variations associated with climatic signals (El Niño Southern Oscillation and others). We hypothesize that recruitment may correlate: (i) negatively with runoff (low runoff would promote the stronger retention of ichthyoplankton); (ii) positively with temperature (higher temperatures should enhance larvae survivorship and/or expand the spawning season); and (iii) positively with the wind zonal component (stronger onshore winds should facilitate the retention of ichthyoplankton). A time series of the relative cohort strengths was constructed for the 1938–2000 period from the age frequencies based on otolith readings. We performed a spectral analysis of the biological and physical series, and we searched for co‐movements between them, which suggested the presence of mechanistic links. The results showed co‐movements for recruitment, runoff and air temperature series at approximately 6.5, 3.4 and 2.4 yr; the temperature reinforced the runoff effects on recruitment at the 6.5‐yr peak, and it weakened them at the 3.4‐ and 2.4‐yr peaks. Wind variability was not relevant for the time scales studied. To explore the mechanisms of retention, we modeled the effects of the runoff fluctuations on the dispersal of the eggs. Both the statistical and modeling results supported the hypothesis that the effects of extreme river discharges on retention may regulate croaker recruitment by promoting high (low) recruitment during low (high) discharge periods.     

El Niño effects in the Palmyra Atoll region: oceanographic changes and bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) catch rate variability

A generalized additive model (GAM) was constructed to separate and quantify the effects of fishery‐based (operational) and oceanographic parameters on the bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) catch rates at Palmyra Atoll in the central Tropical Pacific. Bigeye catch, the number of hooks per set, and set location from 4884 longline sets spanning January 1994 to December 2003 were used with a temporally corresponding El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicator built from sea surface height (SSH) data. Observations of environmental data combined with the results from the GAM indicated that there is an increase in bigeye catch rates corresponding to an increase in eastward advection during the winter months of El Niño events. A seasonal pattern with higher bigeye catch rates from December to April and a spatial pattern with higher rates to the northeast and northwest of the atoll were observed during this study period. It is hypothesized that the combination of the eastward advection of the warm pool coupled with vertical changes in temperature during the winter months of El Niño events increases the availability of bigeye tuna in this region. This increase in availability may be due to a change in exploitable population size, location, or both.