Productivity and recovery of forage fish under climate change and fishing: North Sea sandeel as a case study

Forage fish occupy a central position in marine food‐webs worldwide by mediating the transfer of energy and organic matter from lower to higher trophic levels. The lesser sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) is one of the ecologically and economically most important forage fish species in the North‐east Atlantic, acting as a key prey for predatory fish and sea birds, as well as supporting a large commercial fishery. In this case study, we investigate the underlying factors affecting recruitment and how these in turn affect productivity of the North Sea sandeel using long‐term data and modelling. Our results demonstrate how sandeel productivity in the central North Sea (Dogger Bank) depends on a combination of external and internal regulatory factors, including fishing and climate effects, as well as density dependence and food availability of the preferred zooplankton prey (Calanus finmarchicus and Temora longicornis). Furthermore, our model scenarios suggest that while fishing largely contributed to the abrupt stock decline during the late 1990s and the following period of low biomass, a complete recovery of the stock to the highly productive levels of the early 1980s would only be possible through changes in the surrounding ecosystem, involving lower temperatures and improved feeding conditions. To that end, we stress the need for ecosystem‐based management accounting for multiple internal and external factors occurring within the broader context of the ecosystem in which forage fish species, such as sandeel, play an important and integral part.     

Climate‐induced nonlinearity in pelagic communities and non‐stationary relationships with physical drivers in the Kuroshio ecosystem

Climate‐induced nonlinearity in biological variability and non‐stationary relationships with physical drivers are crucial to understand responses of marine organisms to climate variability. These phenomena have raised concerns in the northeastern North Pacific, but are out of the spotlight in the northwestern North Pacific in spite of potential implications for this productive system under increased climate variability. Pelagic communities in the Kuroshio ecosystem have both ecological and economic importance. However, patterns of climate‐induced nonlinearity in pelagic communities are not well understood, and existence of non‐stationarity in their relationships with physical drivers remains obscure. Here, we compile large numbers of climatic, oceanic and biological long‐term time‐series data and employ diverse statistical techniques to reveal such climate‐induced nonlinearity and non‐stationarity. Results show that pelagic communities in the Tsushima and Pacific areas (major areas in the Kuroshio ecosystem) had regime shifts in the late 1990s and late 1980s, respectively. Winter sea surface temperatures in the Kuroshio Current path and in the eastern part of East China Sea, which are respectively affected by the Kuroshio Current and Siberian High, correlate with dominant variability patterns in their pelagic communities. Furthermore, non‐stationarity was identified with threshold years in the 1990s in the Tsushima area and in the 1980s in the Pacific area as a possible result of the declined variances in the Siberian High and Aleutian Low, respectively. Our findings provide insights on spatial differentiation of climate‐induced nonlinearity and non‐stationarity, which are valuable for the management of pelagic communities in the northwestern North Pacific under changing climatic conditions.     

Effects of interdecadal climate variability on the oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific

A major reorganization of the North-east Pacific biota transpired following a climatic `regime shift' in the mid 1970s. In this paper, we characterize the effects of interdecadal climate forcing on the oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific Ocean. We consider the concept of scale in terms of both time and space within the North Pacific ecosystem and develop a conceptual model to illustrate how climate variability is linked to ecosystem change. Next we describe a number of recent studies relating climate to marine ecosystem dynamics in the NE Pacific Ocean. These studies have focused on most major components of marine ecosystems – primary and secondary producers, forage species, and several levels of predators. They have been undertaken at different time and space scales. However, taken together, they reveal a more coherent picture of how decadal-scale climate forcing may affect the large oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific. Finally, we synthesize the insight gained from interpreting these studies. Several general conclusions can be drawn.
1 There are large-scale, low-frequency, and sometimes very rapid changes in the distribution of atmospheric pressure over the North Pacific which are, in turn, reflected in ocean properties and circulation.
2 Oceanic ecosystems respond on similar time and space scales to variations in physical conditions.
3 Linkages between the atmosphere/ocean physics and biological responses are often different across time and space scales.
4 While the cases presented here demonstrate oceanic ecosystem response to climate forcing, they provide only hints of the mechanisms of interaction.
5 A model whereby ecosystem response to specified climate variation can be successfully predicted will be difficult to achieve because of scale mismatches and nonlinearities in the atmosphere–ocean–biosphere system.     

Multi‐decadal climate and fishing predictors of abundance for U.S. South Atlantic coastal fishes and invertebrates

Abundance of marine stocks fluctuates in response to both internal processes (e.g., density dependence) and exogenous drivers, including the physical environment, fishing, and trophodynamic interactions. In the United States, research investigating ecosystem drivers has been focused in data‐rich systems, primarily in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. To develop a more holistic understanding of important ecosystem drivers in the Southeast U.S. continental shelf Large Marine Ecosystem, we applied generalized linear and dynamic linear modeling to investigate the effects of climate and fishing covariates on the relative abundance trends of 71 demersal fish and invertebrate species sampled by a coastal trawl survey during 1990–2013. For the assemblage as a whole, fishing effects predominated over climate effects. In particular, changes in trawling effort within the penaeid shrimp fishery governed abundance trends of bony fishes, invertebrates, and elasmobranchs, a likely result of temporal changes in bycatch mortality. Changes in trawling intensity induced changes in overall community composition and appear to have altered trophic interactions among particular species. Among climate indices investigated, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Western Bermuda High Index were most prevalent in well‐supported dynamic linear models. Observed annual abundance trends were synchronous among some taxonomically related species, highlighting similar responses to exogenous influences based on life history. This study strengthens the foundation for generating hypotheses and advancing ecosystem‐based fisheries research within the region.     

Hundred-year decline of North Atlantic predatory fishes

We estimate the biomass of high‐trophic level fishes in the North Atlantic at a spatial scale of 0.5° latitude by 0.5° longitude based on 23 spatialized ecosystem models, each constructed to represent a given year or short period from 1880 to 1998. We extract over 7800 data points that describe the abundance of high‐trophic level fishes as a function of year, primary production, depth, temperature, latitude, ice cover and catch composition. We then use a multiple linear regression to predict the spatial abundance for all North Atlantic spatial cells for 1900 and for each year from 1950 to 1999. The results indicate that the biomass of high‐trophic level fishes has declined by two‐thirds during the last 50‐year period, and with a factor of nine over the century. Catches of high‐trophic level fishes increased from 2.4 to 4.7 million tonnes annually in the late 1960s, and subsequently declined to below 2 million tonnes annually in the late 1990s. The fishing intensity for high‐trophic level fishes tripled during the first half of the time period and remained high during the last half of the time period. Comparing the fishing intensity to similar measures from 35 assessments of high‐trophic level fish populations from the North Atlantic, we conclude that the trends in the two data series are similar. Our results raise serious concern for the future of the North Atlantic as a diverse, healthy ecosystem; we may soon be left with only low‐trophic level species in the sea.     

Potential trophodynamic and environmental drivers of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) productivity in the North Pacific Ocean

Information on prey availability, diets, and trophic levels of fish predators and their prey provides a link between physical and biological changes in the ecosystem and subsequent productivity (growth and survival) of fish populations. In this study two long‐term data sets on summer diets of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in international waters of the central North Pacific Ocean (CNP; 1991–2009) and Gulf of Alaska (GOA; 1993–2002) were evaluated to identify potential drivers of steelhead productivity in the North Pacific. Stable isotopes of steelhead muscle tissue were assessed to corroborate the results of stomach content analysis. We found the composition of steelhead diets varied by ocean age group, region, and year. In both the GOA and CNP, gonatid squid (Berryteuthis anonychus) were the most influential component of steelhead diets, leading to higher prey energy densities and stomach fullness. Stomach contents during an exceptionally warm year in the GOA and CNP (1997) were characterized by high diversity of prey with low energy density, few squid, and a large amount of potentially toxic debris (e.g., plastic). Indicators of good diets (high proportions of squid and high prey energy density) were negatively correlated with abundance of wild populations of eastern Kamchatka pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) in the CNP. In conclusion, interannual variations in climate, abundance of squid, and density‐dependent interactions with highly‐abundant stocks of pink salmon were identified as potential key drivers of steelhead productivity in these ecosystems. Additional research in genetic stock identification is needed to link these potential drivers of productivity to individual populations.     

Just a FAD? Ecosystem impacts of tuna purse‐seine fishing associated with fish aggregating devices in the western Pacific Warm Pool Province

The western and central Pacific Ocean supports the world's largest tuna fisheries. Since the 1990s, the purse‐seine fishery has increasingly fished in association with fish aggregating devices (FADs), which has increased catches of juvenile bigeye and yellowfin tunas and vulnerable bycatch species (e.g., sharks). This has raised concerns regarding the sustainability of these species’ populations and the supporting ecosystem, but may provide improved food security of Pacific Island nations through utilisation of FAD‐associated byproduct species (e.g., wahoo). An ecosystem model of the western Pacific Warm Pool Province was used to explore the potential ecological impacts of varying FAD fishing effort (±50% or 100%) over 30 years. The ecosystem has undergone a significant change in structure since 1980 from heavy exploitation of top predators (e.g., tunas) and “fishing up the food web” of high‐trophic‐level non‐target species. The ecosystem appeared resistant to simulated fishing perturbations, with only modest changes (<10%) in the biomass of most groups, although some less productive shark bycatch species decreased by up to 43%, which had a subsequent positive effect on several byproduct species, the prey of sharks. Reduction of FAD effort by at least 50% was predicted to increase the biomass of tuna species and sharks and return the ecosystem structure to a pre‐industrial‐fishing state within 10 years. Spatial disaggregation of the model and integration of economic information are recommended to better capture ecological and economic changes that may result from fishing and/or climate impacts and to develop appropriate management measures in response.     

Links between the recruitment success of northern European hake (Merluccius merluccius L.) and a regime shift on the NE Atlantic continental shelf

The distribution of northern European hake (Merluccius merluccius L.) extends from the Bay of Biscay up to Norwegian waters. However, despite its wide geographical distribution, there have been few studies on fluctuations in the European hake populations. Marine ecosystem shifts have been investigated worldwide and their influence on trophic levels has been studied, from top predator fish populations down to planktonic prey species, but there is little information on the effect of atmosphere–ocean shifts on European hake. This work analyses hake recruitment success (recruits per adult biomass) in relation to environmental changes over the period 1978–2006 in order to determine whether the regime shift identified in several abiotic and biotic variables in the North Sea also affected the Northeast Atlantic shelf oceanography. Hake recruitment success as well as parameters such as the sea surface temperature, wind patterns and copepod abundance changed significantly at the end of the 1980s, demonstrating an ecological regime shift in the Northeast Atlantic. Despite the low reproductive biomass recorded during the last decades, hake recruitment success has been higher since the change in 1989/90. The higher productivity may have sustained the population despite the intense fishing pressure; copepod abundance, warmer water temperatures and moderate eastward transport were found to be beneficial. In conclusion, in 1988/89 the Northeast Atlantic environment shifted to a favourable regime for northern hake production. This study supports the hypothesis that the hydro‐climatic regime shift that affected the North Sea in the late 1980s may have influenced a wider region, such as the Northeast Atlantic.     

基于Ecopath模型的胶州湾生态系统比较研究

文章根据2015–2016年胶州湾渔业资源与生态环境调查数据,并收集20世纪80年代胶州湾渔业资源数据,利用Ecopath with Ecosim 6.5(Ew E)软件构建了由21个功能组组成的胶州湾1980-1982年和2015-2016年两个时期的Ecopath模型,比较分析了不同时期胶州湾生态系统结构和功能变化以及系统发育特征。研究结果显示,与1980-1982年生态系统相比,胶州湾2015-2016年生态系统中大型底层鱼类生物量减少,菲律宾蛤仔(Ruditapes philippinarum)生物量提高,渔获物产出以菲律宾蛤仔为主,渔获平均营养级降低,系统能量转化效率从1980-1982年的15.83%提高到2015-2016年的16.35%,能量流动始终以牧食食物链为主。关键种分析表明,胶州湾生态系统两个时期的关键种均为菲律宾蛤仔。此外,与1980-1982年生态系统相比,2015-2016年胶州湾生态系统整体规模增大,净生产量提高5倍,系统总初级生产量与总呼吸量的比值由1980-1982年的1.267提高到2015-2016年的2.518,系统连接指数、杂食指数与Finn’s循环指数和平均路径长度均减小,说明在过去30多年胶州湾生态系统成熟度和稳定性不断降低,发育过程出现由成熟向幼态的逆行演替现象,目前处于不稳定的幼态阶段。     

Bottom-up forcing and the decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska: assessing the ocean climate hypothesis

Declines of Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) populations in the Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska could be a consequence of physical oceanographic changes associated with the 1976–77 climate regime shift. Changes in ocean climate are hypothesized to have affected the quantity, quality, and accessibility of prey, which in turn may have affected the rates of birth and death of sea lions. Recent studies of the spatial and temporal variations in the ocean climate system of the North Pacific support this hypothesis. Ocean climate changes appear to have created adaptive opportunities for various species that are preyed upon by Steller sea lions at mid‐trophic levels. The east–west asymmetry of the oceanic response to climate forcing after 1976–77 is consistent with both the temporal aspect (populations decreased after the late 1970s) and the spatial aspect of the decline (western, but not eastern, sea lion populations decreased). These broad‐scale climate variations appear to be modulated by regionally sensitive biogeographic structures along the Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska, which include a transition point from coastal to open‐ocean conditions at Samalga Pass westward along the Aleutian Islands. These transition points delineate distinct clusterings of different combinations of prey species, which are in turn correlated with differential population sizes and trajectories of Steller sea lions. Archaeological records spanning 4000 yr further indicate that sea lion populations have experienced major shifts in abundance in the past. Shifts in ocean climate are the most parsimonious underlying explanation for the broad suite of ecosystem changes that have been observed in the North Pacific Ocean in recent decades.