对渔业实际种群分析（VPA）中调谐方法的初步研究

实际种群分析法(VPA)是渔业资源评估的经典模型之一,也是总允许捕捞配额(TAC)计算的主要模型之一。由于VPA方法本身具有不确定性,单纯的分年龄组产量数据不能计算最末年的捕捞死亡系数(和种群数量),所以它通常需要分年龄组产量数据和附属数据。VPA的调谐方法发源于欧洲,它们简单、易于理解和不需要繁杂的计算,在实际的渔业资源评估中有着广泛的应用。文章研究了最具有典型性的3种VPA调谐方法,JAM(judicious average method)、LS(Laurec and Shepherd method)和Hybrid。应用模拟数据的研究表明,3种方法在捕捞死亡系数稳定时可以较准确地估计补充值。当捕捞死亡系数随时间增加时,LS方法相对于其它2种方法有较优的表现。当捕捞死亡系数随时间减少时,JAM方法有较优的表现。     

达里湖东北雅罗鱼的生长、死亡和生活史类型的研究

达里湖东北雅罗鱼(Leucisus waleckii)的种群结构参数(体长、体重和年龄)进行测定,估算种群的生长和死亡参数,并研究种群的生活史类型。结果显示:东北雅罗鱼的体长和体重的关系式Wt=0.0281L2t.8152,其vonBertalanffy生长方程各参数为渐近体长L∞=28.9763 cm,渐近体重W∞=366.95 g,生长系数k=0.2586,t0=-0.3237;自然死亡系数M为0.322,总死亡系数Z为0.9386,捕捞死亡系数F为0.6166;生活类型为r-选择。结果表明:作为渔业管理对策,达里湖东北雅罗鱼的起捕年龄应定为3龄以上。     

基于分期的实际种群分析法研究

实际种群分析法(virtual population analysis,VPA)是开展渔业资源评估最有效的技术之一,一般以世代为基础开展评估.基于实际渔业存在渔汛期、休渔期等特点,本研究运用分期评估的概念对传统实际种群分析进行了扩展,即分期种群分析法,并根据不同时期的捕捞死亡特征,评估与分析了4种不同分期情景对评估结果的影响.模拟研究表明,由于分期不当造成评估结果的误差为6％～33％.文中一并给出了开展分期实际种群分析法对资料收集和参数评估的要求.该方法克服了传统实际种群分析法中没有全面分期产生的误差,使其扩展至适合于评估全年捕捞死亡率不稳定或非连续性渔业种群,评估结果也更接近于评估种群的真实值.     

浙江南部近海小黄鱼生长、死亡和单位补充量渔获量

浙江南部近海是东海种群小黄鱼(Larimichthys polyactis)的重要繁殖和育肥场所。根据2016年2月、5月、8月和11月采集的2023尾浙江南部近海小黄鱼全长、体长和体重等生物学信息,利用体长频率分布估算小黄鱼种群生长、死亡参数,并利用Beverton-Holt动态综合模型评估探讨单位补充量渔获量在不同自然死亡系数和渔具选择下随捕捞死亡系数的变化趋势。研究结果表明小黄鱼von Bertalanffy生长参数为渐近体长L_∞=22.58 cm,生长速率K=0.78/a,初始年龄t_a=-0.37 a;自然死亡系数M值为1.343,总死亡系数Z值为4.432,捕捞死亡系数F为3.089,开发率E为0.697,表明资源处于过度开发状态;小黄鱼的首次捕捞体长L_(50)=13.11cm,对应首次捕捞平均年龄t_c=0.743 a,小于临界年龄(0.886a)和体重生长的拐点年龄(0.979a),渔业主要捕捞对象为幼鱼和补充群体,无法保证资源的有效补充;根据B-H动态模型,当前的YPR值为15.279 g/ind,若降低捕捞强度到1.685,对应YPR_(max)为17.061 g/ind,与当前产量相比增幅11.66%;若提高开捕体长(13.11cm→16.0cm),YPR_(cur)会出现显著提高(15.279 g/ind→18.766 g/ind),增幅达22.82%,表明提高开捕体长要优于降低捕捞强度。当前东海小黄鱼群系处于小型低龄化和过度开发状态,建议将小黄鱼的开捕体长提高为15 cm,保证小黄鱼的产卵亲体量及资源的可持续发展。     

台湾海峡南部条尾绯鲤生态学参数变化特征

为了评估台湾海峡南部条尾绯鲤的种群资源现状,2000-2002年在闽南-台湾浅滩渔场单拖渔船采集的条尾鲱鲤样品,进行其种群结构和生长与死亡的研究,并与1977、1994年的研究结果进行比较,探讨种群变化动态.结果表明:条尾鲱鲤渔获群体叉长范围65～169mm,优势叉长组101～130mm,平均116.3m.体重范围6～86g,优势体重组21～40g,平均34.4g.年龄范围0～5龄,优势年龄组1龄,平均年龄1.12龄.渐近叉长L∞为182.73mm、渐近体重W∞为131.42g、生长速率K为0.4204、t0为-1.0424、体重生长拐点tr为1.5933.总死亡系数Z为2.1077,自然死亡系数M为1.0677,捕捞死亡系数F为1.0400,开发比率0.4934.与1977比较,1994年发生了种群结构趋于简单化、个体趋于小型化、低龄化和生长参数L∞和W∞趋小,生长速率K增大,拐点tr提前及初次性成熟提早等明显的变化,反映了当时种群资源基础处于最脆弱时期.2002年与1994年比较,虽然渔获个体有所增大,生长速率K有所下降,初次性成熟叉长略有加大,资源基础稍有好转,然而体重生长拐点tr继续提前,捕捞死亡系数还在加大,开发比率仍然较高,各项生态学参数与1977年比较还有较大差距,表明资源仍处于脆弱阶段,总体状况不容乐观.种群生态学参数的变化与该渔场的底拖网渔业投入量和产出量的变化相吻合,尤其1994年以来捕捞强度和渔获量不断加大,而且大量捕捞幼鱼,已对资源造成较大的压力,生态学参数趋向种群脆弱的变化是必然的.因此必须强化对渔业及资源的管理力度,以剩余产量模式估算的底拖网最大可持续开发量为26.94×104t和最大可持续捕捞力量为2180艘福建标准单拖渔船及条尾绯鲤最小可捕标准91.67mm、16.89g进行管理.以求条尾绯鲤等底层、近底层鱼类资源得以明显恢复,实现底拖网渔业可持续发展.     

东南太平洋竹?鱼资源评估与捕捞控制规则模拟研究

以东南太平洋智利竹鱼为对象、以资源量动态模型为基础,使用模拟方法构建了"真实"的智利竹鱼种群及其渔业,评估了观测误差和过程误差对智利竹鱼资源评估和管理的影响。模拟的"真实"的智利竹鱼种群及其渔业结果显示,1997—2014年太平洋智利竹鱼资源量总体上呈逐年下降趋势,且远低于B_(MSY)的50%;捕捞死亡系数波动剧烈,仅在2012—2014年低于F_(MSY)且相对稳定。渔业资源评估模拟结果显示,观测误差和过程误差使资源量和B_(MSY)被低估,捕捞死亡系数和F_(MSY)被高估,且随机误差越大,资源量、B_(MSY)被低估,而捕捞死亡系数、F_(MSY)被高估的程度越大。渔业管理模拟的结果表明,捕捞控制规则采用恒定捕捞死亡系数时,未来10年基于50%2014年捕捞死亡系数的管理措施为最佳管理措施。由于捕捞死亡系数被高估,最佳管理措施实施后使得年总可捕捞量高于预期,而年资源量低于预期,资源量增长或恢复的速度变慢,资源可能同时处于过度捕捞状态和正遭受过度捕捞。过度捕捞的风险与随机观测误差和过程误差的大小成正比。     

有限数据渔业种群资源评估与管理——以小黄鱼为例

传统的渔业资源评估方法需以翔实的调查和渔业数据为基础,而现有的大多数种类面临着着渔获量、基础生物学、有效捕捞努力量等数据缺失问题,因此并不适合采用数据需求较高的模型进行评估和管理。面临着渔业资源衰退的严峻形势和渔获量限额管理的迫切要求,基于有限数据的评估方法和渔获量相关的管理方案正被越来越多的国家采用。本研究以东海小黄鱼(Larimichthys polyactis)种群为例,根据渔获量、自然死亡、消减率、生物学参数、开捕体长等数据,采用54种有限数据评估方法,模拟3种捕捞动态,对小黄鱼进行管理策略评价和资源评估。结果显示,以相对产量(relative yield, RY)不低于50%、过度捕捞概率(probability of overfishing, POF)小于50%,生物量低于最大可持续生物量的10%(B0.1B_(MSY))的概率小于20%为风险控制水平,捕捞强度随机波动和增长情景下,分别有6个管理方案(management procedures, MPs)满足既定管理目标;"一般型"和"增长型"捕捞强度情景下, 14个MPs满足管理目标。权衡分析3种捕捞动态下的MPs, 50%FMSY基准法(FMSYref50)可作为小黄鱼渔业最佳的管理方案,POF介于5.46%～6.70%, B0.5B_(MSY)概率介于15.66%～22.73%,长期获得的相对产量介于52%～100%;然而, FMSYref50确定的可接受生物学渔获量(acceptable biological catch, ABC)仅有1.08×10~4 t,与当前产量相差较大。因此,考虑到降低捕捞强度为渔业管控的发展趋势,建议采用动态F比值法(DynF)为小黄鱼渔业管理方案,"下降型"捕捞强度情景下,POF为37.84%, B0.5B_(MSY)概率为38.63%,长期获得的相对产量为84%, ABC为4.03×10~4 t。根据敏感性分析,发现DynF评估的ABC对捕捞产量、资源丰度指数不敏感,而对自然死亡系数、最大可持续捕捞死亡系数与自然死亡系数比值(FMSY_M)和当前资源量均较为敏感,参数值增加会导致ABC增加,表明在开展渔业资源评估时需要着重提高这3种参数的准确性。     

不同误差结构对运用股分析（CA）模型求算鱼类自然死亡系数影响的初步研究

当鱼类一个世代的资源量和渔获量数据已知,POPE(1972)提出的股分析(cohortanalysis,CA)模型可以用来求算鱼类的自然死亡系数(M)。在以往的计算过程中来自模型和数据的误差往往被忽略。文章讨论了用股分析模型求算M的方法,并运用广义线性模型(generalizedlinearmodel,GzLM)探讨了3种不同误差结构(正态,对数正态和伽马)对求算结果的影响。蒙特卡罗(MonteCarlo)模拟分析显示,当数据的噪音(即变异系数coefficientofvariation,CV)小于大约10%时可以得到M较好的估计值。不同的误差结构会影响M的估算,其中对数正态分布的GzLM误差得到了最好的结果。构造了长寿命小自然死亡系数和短寿命大自然死亡系数的2个鱼类种群,模拟结果表明这种方法更适用于寿命短而自然死亡系数大的种群。同样假设以上3种误差结构,将该方法应用到黄海鳀鱼(Engraulisjaponicus)渔业数据上。与其它2种误差结构相比,对数正态的GzLM误差结构同样得到了良好的结果。由于低龄鱼具有较为准确的观测数据,其M的估计值好于高龄鱼。     

用补充曲线参数估算最大持续产量的方法

对于不同的补充-捕捞类型，用补充曲线参数估算最大持续渔获数(G)和最大持续渔获量(MSY或Ys)的方法是不同的。提出并讨论了2种补充-捕捞类型的评估方法：①一生只繁殖1次的连续捕捞类型，②一生繁殖多次、渔期短的季节性捕捞类型。把渔获量方程与Ricker繁殖模型和Beverton—Holt繁殖模型相结合，建立新的以渔获数表示的平衡渔获量方程。分别把Beverton-Holt渔获量方程(用于第1类型)和季节性渔业产量模型(用于第2类型)与Ricker繁殖模型和Beverton—Holt繁殖模型相结合，建立新的以重量表示的平衡渔获量方程。用这些方程式可以估算以数量表示的最大持续渔获数Cs、以重量表示的最大持续渔获量Ys，Cs所需的捕捞死亡系数(F‘s)和Ys所需的捕捞死亡系数(Fs)。计算了二种类型在同一自然死亡系数下的Cs、Ys、F‘s和Fs。结果表明：Fs不等于F‘s，同一种群的Fs可以小于F‘s，但Fs不可能大于F‘s。     

渤海对虾死亡的研究

我们用各种方法估算了秋汛渤海对虾(Penaeus orientalis Kishinouye)的死亡值。总死亡系数的估算结果:用渔获尾数为相对资源量估计的10年平均旬死亡值,雌虾约0.25,雄虾约0.34;用y/f为相对资源量估计的12年旬平均死亡值,雌虾0.23,雄虾0.34;用世代分析(Pope 方法)估计的3年雌虾旬平均死亡值约0.30。交尾后部份雄虾死亡,我们找到了一个用性比资料估算雄虾交尾死亡的方法。估算结果,到10月末,雄虾交尾死亡系数约为0.65,并有陆续死亡现象,到12月初的累计死亡系数约1.05左右。我们在讨论了渤海秋汛对虾渔业的 F和f之间的关系后,认为当 f<1000,捕捞死亡随捕捞努力量的变化而变化;当f>1000,捕捞努力量的变化对捕捞死亡已无多大影响,所以渤海秋汛对虾渔业平均每 10天的捕捞死亡系数不能大于0.3。     

Weight-based population analysis: an estimation method

Generally, the individual weight of large fish is measured at landing, and thus, their weight composition is easily obtained. In this paper, we develop a method of population analysis using weight composition of fish, called weight-based population analysis, or WPA. WPA needs data of catch-at-weight, weight composition, weight from the growth and natural mortality M. We apply the method to the walleye pollack fishery in Funka Bay to evaluate its validity. The results show that the population size estimated from WPA reflects the features of population dynamics, and the estimated parameters reflect this walleye pollack fishery. Further, we compare the results of WPA with those of virtual population analysis (VPA) using catch-at-age data. The trend of population dynamics estimated using WPA was comparable to the results of VPA, suggesting that WPA can estimate population size as well as VPA.     

澳洲鲭太平洋群系的资源评估与管理策略

澳洲鲭是西北太平洋重要的经济种类,了解和掌握澳洲鲭太平洋群系资源开发状况对确保其可持续利用具有重要的意义。根据日本中央水产研究所提供的1995—2015年澳洲鲭太平洋群系的生产统计和资源调查资料,利用基于年龄结构的实际种群模型和单位补充量产量模型等进行资源量评估,分析澳洲鲭太平洋群系资源利用情况及其管理策略。结果显示,历年澳洲鲭太平洋群系资源量虽有波动但仍保持在较高水平,2015年资源量最高约为65万t;年平均捕捞死亡系数呈波动下降趋势,2015年捕捞死亡系数只有0.15,近五年平均捕捞死亡系数Fcur=0.33,单位补充量亲体量是未开发时的32.7%,不存在生长型捕捞过度,也不存在补充型捕捞过度,处于可持续开发状态。研究还探讨了水温变化引起自然死亡波动以及不同开捕年龄对澳洲鲭太平洋群系资源状况的影响。研究表明,该渔业目前开发和利用程度合理,建议使用F0.1做为管理参考点进行渔业资源的管理。     

Analysing extensive fish culture systems by transparent population modelling: bighead carp, Aristichthys nobilis (Richardson 1845), culture in a Chinese reservoir

A transparent population modelling approach is used to analyse a large-scale extensive fish culture system, the bighead carp, Aristichthys nobilis (Richardson 1845), fishery in a Chinese reservoir. The population model incorporates explicit submodels for density-dependent growth and size-dependent mortality, and allows the assessment of stocking density, seed fish size, fishing mortality (fishing effort), and gear selectivity. The process of model building and parameter estimation from stocking and catch data is described in detail. The full analysis is carried out in computer spreadsheets where all model components are visible and can easily be modified to take account of specific conditions, or to explore different assumptions. The practical use of the model in management decision making is discussed, together with data requirements and the possible need for experimental management.     

Estimating and monitoring the stock size of sandfish <Emphasis Type="Italic">Arctoscopus japonicus</Emphasis> in the northern Sea of Japan

ABSTRACT:   The stock size of sandfish in the northern Sea of Japan was estimated by a virtual population analysis (VPA) and sensitivity analyses were attempted on the VPA estimate. The stock size estimates were approximately 600–900 million until 1975, but since 1976 they have rapidly decreased. In the sensitivity analyses, the estimates of absolute stock size were not sensitive against the changes in the fishing mortality coefficient for terminal age and the measurement error in catch-at-age. This suggested that the relative stock size remains almost unaffected by the error in the data used in the VPA, if the degree of catch-at-age error and the natural mortality coefficient is correct. The relationships between the biomass estimated by the VPA and the density index from Danish seine fisheries, and between the biomass and the catch per unit effort (CPUE) from the experimental survey using Danish seine nets, were also examined. The density index and the CPUE indicated significant relations with the biomass. Consequently, the CPUE is useful to monitor the relative stock size in a timely manner, and the VPA estimate and the CPUE should be utilized for adjusting the total allowable catch in the multiseasons.     

A revisit to Pope's cohort analysis

Gulland's [Gulland, J.A., 1965. Estimation of mortality rates. Annex to Arctic Fisheries Working Group Report (meeting in Hamburg, January 1965). ICES, C.M. 1965, Doc. No. 3 (mimeographed)] virtual population analysis (VPA) is commonly used for studying the dynamics of harvested fish populations. However, it necessitates the solving of a nonlinear equation for the instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish in a population. Pope [Pope, J.G., 1972. An investigation of the accuracy of Virtual Population Analysis using cohort analysis. ICNAF Res. Bull. 9, 65–74. Also available in D.H. Cushing (ed.) (1983), Key Papers on Fish Populations, p. 291–301, IRL Press, Oxford, 405 p.] eliminated this necessity in his cohort analysis by approximating its underlying age- and time-dependent population model. His approximation has since become one of the most commonly used age- and time-dependent fish population models in fisheries science. However, some of its properties are not well understood. For example, many assert that it describes the dynamics of a fish population, from which the catch of fish is taken instantaneously in the middle of the year. Such an assertion has never been proven, nor has its implied instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish of a particular age at a particular time been examined, nor has its implied catch equation been derived from a general catch equation. In this paper, we prove this assertion, examine its implied instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish of a particular age at a particular time, derive its implied catch equation from a general catch equation, and comment on how to structure an age- and time-dependent population model to ensure its internal consistency. This work shows that Gulland's (1965) virtual population analysis and Pope's (1972) cohort analysis lie at the opposite end of a continuous spectrum as a general model for a seasonally occurring fishery; Pope's (1972) approximation implies an infinitely large instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish of a particular age at a particular time in a fishing season of zero length; and its implied catch equation has an undefined instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish in a population, but a well-defined cumulative instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish in the population. This work also highlights a need for a more careful treatment of the times of start and end of a fishing season in fish population models.     

Population dynamics of tambaqui, Colossoma macropomum Cuvier, in the Lower Amazon, Brazil

Fishery statistics and length data series for Colossoma macropomum Cuvier obtained during 1992 and 1993 in the Lower Amazon, Brazil were used to describe the fishery and to estimate growth and mortality rates. Mean population parameters were L _∞ = 119.85 cm (total length), W _∞ = 33.4 kg, K = 0.228 year^–1, C = 0.505, Winter Point = July, M = 0.445 year^–1, F = 0.94 year^–1 and L_c = 28.29 cm. Yield-per-recruit analysis showed that an excessive fishing effort and principally a very low length at first capture lead to an increase in overfishing in the region. Corrective measures are recommended.     

Vital population statistics of the exploited eel stock on the Swedish west coast

The population dynamics and exploitation of the yellow eel (Anguilla anguilla (L.)) stock on the Swedish west coast were studied. In contrast to a generally observed reduction in the recruitment of glass eels in Europe, including in Swedish waters, there was no indication of a decline in the total eel fishery yields along the Swedish west coast. Long-term records of daily catches as well as by test fishing results also shown that this stability in eel fishery yields has not been maintained by an increase in fishery effort, as the catch-per-unit-efforts in the past 20 years have been more or less unchanged. These findings implied that the number of recruits to the fishery has been rather stable, possibly indicating that density-dependent factors at the elver and yellow eel stages may moderate variations in glass eel recruitment. Total instantaneous rate of mortality was estimated from records on eel length distribution in the professional fyke-net fishery. The estimated total mortality rate in an isolated archipelago population on the west coast was chosen as an approximation of the instantaneous rate of natural mortality and net emigration in the west coast eel stock. The differences between these two estimates could, thus be regarded as the mortality that occurred due to fishing. It was found that the eel fishery was very intense and most fish were caught in small sizes, resulting in a low escapement rate of maturing fish.     

Incorporating cannibalism into an age-structured model for the Chilean hake

We incorporated predation equations from the multispecies virtual population analysis model MSVPA into an age-structured model for the Chilean hake (Merluccius gayi gayi) to estimate cannibalism. Two models, model I with constant natural mortality and the MSM, were fitted to the total annual catch, spawning biomass from acoustic surveys and length composition data from fishery and acoustic surveys. Model I fitted the data better than MSM. The majority of the MSM estimates of adult population and spawning biomass were larger than the model I estimates; probably due to the choice of residual mortality M1. High estimates of predation mortality were observed for age-0 hake. In spite of a decreasing fishing mortality, the spawning biomass decreased in the last years. Preliminary MSM results suggest that this might be due to an increase in cannibalism. A sensitivity analysis suggested all response variables were not sensible to the “other food” parameter but sensible to M1 and the predator annual ration. MSM is a promising approach that introduces the predation mortality equations into a statistical framework, allowing the incorporation of the uncertainty in the estimation of the parameters and the use of standard statistical tools in a multispecies context. This approach will contribute to provide useful information on the indirect effects of fishing on non-target species to fisheries managers.