基于个体生态模型在渔业生态中应用研究进展

近年来, 基于个体的生态模型(individual-based model, IBM)被广泛应用到海洋生态环境中, 被认为可能是研究鱼类生态过程的唯一合理手段。基于个体生态模型以众多的生物个体为模拟对象, 考虑个体之间的差异、环境条件的时空变化对个体发育的影响,这一研究为基于生态系统的渔业管理, 以及资源补充量预测分析提供了科学的研究方法和手段。本文主要介绍了IBM的基本概念, 以及在渔业上的研究方法和技术, 总结了IBM在鱼类输运、生长死亡和捕食相关的应用研究现状以及IBM在渔业上未来发展趋势, 并对IBM在渔业上应用的问题和不足进行了分析和讨论。本论文的总结与分析将为国内开展我国近海鱼类早期生活史的研究, 以及基于生态系统的渔业资源评估管理提供参考。     

捕捞诱导鱼类生物学特征进化研究进展

随着捕捞强度加大,渔业生物为了应对捕捞压力、维持种族繁衍,逐渐产生适应性进化,这一过程称为捕捞诱导进化(Fishing-induced evolution,FIE),通常表现为渔业生物个体变小、性成熟提前,个体对捕捞的敏感性增强,进一步导致渔业种群结构简单、生态系统稳定性下降和渔业经济效益降低。认知捕捞诱导的渔业生物适应性进化,掌握捕捞对渔业种群的作用机制,有利于制定科学合理的渔业资源养护与管理策略。虽然FIE方面已进行了大量研究,但FIE在生理、生态及基因层面上对渔业生物的具体影响过程尚未明确,尤其是在气候变化、多物种相互作用等的动态环境中,FIE的作用方式更为复杂。作者综述了鱼类FIE的主要研究方法,总结了捕捞对大个体的选择性在鱼类生长、性成熟和行为方面的影响,并分析了这种影响对渔业种群恢复与管理产生的效应,以及今后需要解决的关键科学问题,旨在为FIE的进一步深入研究和渔业资源的科学管理提供帮助。     

空间信息技术在渔业资源及生态环境监测与评价中的应用

作为一种重要的时空分析方法,空间信息技术在渔业资源及生态环境监测与评价中极富优势,并能在未来加强渔业的可持续管理水平。本文总结了目前空间信息技术(包括地理信息系统、遥感、空间模型、空间统计学)在渔业资源及生态环境监测与评价中的应用及研究进展,主要集中在四个方面:(1)在渔业生态环境数据采集和监测中的应用;(2)在渔业数据库建立中的应用;(3)在渔业资源生态评价中的应用:包括渔业资源的时空分布模拟、环境变化对渔业资源的影响研究、生态热点区的确定(产卵场、迁移通道等)、鱼类关键生境评估、渔业资源量大小估算;(4)在渔业管理及决策中的应用:包括建立海洋保护区(Marine Protected Areas,MPAs)和进行基于生态系统的渔业管理(Ecosystem-Based Fishery Management,EBFM)。相较传统的方法而言,尽管空间信息技术具有诸多优势,但目前其在渔业生态监测和评价中也面临不少挑战:如数据的有效采集、海量多源数据库需要大量的调整和重构等。今后,渔业资源保护趋向运用整体生态系统方法进行监测和评价,而这需要通过利用多种空间信息技术才能更好地得以实现。     

海洋食物网拓扑学方法研究进展

基于生态系统的渔业管理(EBFM)对海洋食物网研究提出了新的理论和方法需求.作者针对食物网动态这一生态系统的核心问题,对其近期发展起来的研究领域——食物网拓扑学理论和方法进行综述.食物网拓扑学通过建立一系列拓扑学指标,定量描述食物网各个成员之间的联系紧密程度,以及各个成员对整个食物网的作用.评价渔业对食物网的影响或食物网对外界的响应,开发可持续的捕捞方案,需要建立并运用食物网的动态模型.鱼类生物的重要特点是其捕食关系在很大程度上由个体大小(体长、体重)决定.而体长结构的渔业种群动力学模型发展已经成熟.因此,建议将食物网拓扑学的动态建模、体长结构的渔业种群生物量模型、鱼类个体大小相关的捕捞过程研究结合起来,作为基于生态系统渔业管理的一个重要的、潜在解决方案.对此,下一步的研究重点是,选择食物网资料采集较为容易、渔业统计资料较为全面的海洋食物网,开展试点研究,从而逐步构建起完整的、具有实际应用能力的EBFM方法体系.     

水产资源与捕捞技术

040047基于个体的模型(IBM)模拟本格拉南部南非鳀鱼卵在产卵场向孵化场传送的过程中的浮性效果=Modelling the effect of buoyancy on the transport of anchovy(En- graulis capensis)eggs from spawning to nurs- ery grounds in the muthern Bengueta:an IBM approach[刊,英]/Parada C,van der Lin- gen C D,Mullon C…//Fish.Oceanogr..- 2003,12(3).-170-184 用基于个体的模型(IBM)研究本格拉南部南非鳀Engraulis capensis鱼卵在产卵场向孵化场由急流传送的过程中发生的物理     

浅析渔业科技档案的管理

我国海洋辽阔,渔业生物资源丰富,为渔业开发和渔业科学研究提供了物质基础.我国渔业历史悠久,尤其在新中国成立以后发展十分迅速,同时国家及各省、区及各地、市都相继设立了相关渔业(水产)研究院、所.在渔业和渔业科研发展过程中积累了许许多多的渔业科研档案资料,这些档案资料为渔业持续、科学发展创建了广阔平台.因此,提高渔业科教档案的管理水平至关重要.本文就如何搞好渔业科技档案现代化管理工作,提出若干管理建议供业界参考.     

印度洋长鳍金枪鱼资源评估的影响因素分析

多个模型被用于印度洋长鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus alalunga)的资源评估,但这些模型的评估结果均存在较大的不确定性,为此,本文对影响印度洋长鳍金枪鱼资源评估的因素进行了分析。分析结果认为:(1)由于渔业数据存在不报、漏报或混报及采样样本数过低、采样协议出现变化等问题,造成印度洋长鳍金枪鱼渔业的渔获量、体长组成或年龄组成数据存在质量问题;(2)尽管对单位捕捞努力渔获量(catch per unit effort,CPUE)进行了标准化,但目标鱼种变化及捕捞努力量空间分布变化仍严重影响了标准化CPUE数据的质量;(3)印度洋长鳍金枪鱼的种群生态学及繁殖生物学研究仍比较薄弱,种群结构、繁殖、生长、自然死亡信息比较缺乏,在资源评估中,相关参数设置需借用其他洋区的研究结果;(4)海洋环境对印度洋长鳍金枪鱼的资源变动与空间分布具有显著影响,但评估模型较少考虑海洋环境的影响。由于上述问题的存在,导致当前评估结果存在较大不确定性。未来,应继续探索提高资源评估质量的方法,同时研究建立管理策略评价框架,以避免渔业资源评估结果的不确定性对该渔业可持续开发的影响。     

适用于数据缺乏渔业的资源评估方法研究进展

开展渔业资源评估研究是制定渔业可持续发展策略的重要前提, 而数据有限是全球渔业资源评估面临的普遍挑战。传统资源评估方法具有数据需求量大、要求高等特点, 无法应用于数据缺乏渔业的资源评估中。数据缺乏方法(data-limited method)可结合少量易获得数据和相关历史生物学信息对渔业资源状况、生物学参考点以及资源量等进行评估, 已经成为全球区域性渔业管理组织和资源评估学者的关注热点。本文在分析数据缺乏资源评估方法文献的基础上, 对近几年开发的数据缺乏评估方法模型结构、模型输入输出、假设以及不确定性来源和分析方法等进行了回顾和归纳, 同时对数据缺乏评估方法未来的研究重点和方向进行了展望。分析认为, 数据缺乏渔业资源评估研究仍处于发展阶段, 若渔获量和体长数据均可用, 则应考虑整合了两种类型数据的模型, 如 LIME (length-based integrated mixed effects, 基于体长的综合混合效应)模型和 SSS (simple stock synthesis, 简化资源整合) 模型。建议今后研究中应加强以下几个方面的工作: (1)积极开展长时间、多海域、全覆盖的渔业资源独立科学调查, 以获得具有代表性的样本数据; (2)对现有数据缺乏模型进一步优化, 综合考虑各种因素对评估结果的影响; (3) 进行完整、准确的基础生物学研究, 获得较为准确的历史生物学信息, 从而降低评估结果的不确定性; (4)开展基于渔获量模型和基于体长模型的模拟测试研究, 提高模型对统计偏差和数据质量问题的包容性。     

我国近海渔业资源可持续产出基础研究的热点问题

近海具有极其重要的生态服务功能,是众多渔业生物的关键栖息地和优良渔场,支撑着近海渔业资源的补充和可持续生产。在我国,近海渔业提供90%以上的海洋捕捞产量,是我国优质蛋白的重要来源。目前,因过度捕捞直接造成的资源量骤减、及大规模围填海工程、陆源污染和海水养殖等高强度人类活动的加剧,近海资源和环境问题日益凸显,如：富营养化导致的赤潮、水母暴发等生态灾害,湿地减少引起产卵场、育幼场碎片化或功能消失等,使得近海渔业资源的补充和可持续性严重受损。渔业资源的补充过程是海洋生物、物理作用耦合的过程,依赖复杂多样的环境驱动因子来调节和维系可持续渔业生产。而渔业种群早期生活史阶段是其生命中最脆弱、对栖息环境变化的敏感性最强的阶段,小规模环境变化也可能会对其资源补充过程产生剧烈影响。因此,渔业种群早期生活史的关键生境(产卵场、育幼场等)和过程(繁殖发育、存活生长等)对环境变化的响应机制及其资源效应的研究成为海洋生态系统演变和生物资源可持续产出前沿领域的重点和热点。作者在综合国内外相关研究动态和我国近海渔业生态系统存在的突出问题的基础上,展望并分析了关键栖息地的形成和变迁过程与机理、关键资源补充过程与机制、渔业种群对生境变化的适应性响应以及资源效应的综合评估与模型分析等研究热点,期待为我国该研究领域的发展起抛砖引玉之用。     

EwE模型在评价渔业水域生态系统中的应用

渔业影响了水域生态环境，如过度捕捞、鱼类生存环境变迁等都使得原有渔业水域生态系统越来越脆弱。科学开发有限得渔业资源需要正确的理论指导。构建生态系统模型可以更完整地认识水域生态系统得结构和功能。Ecopath with Ecosim(EwE)模型是以生态系统中的能量流动和物质平衡为理论基础，融合了生态学的相关基础理论知识，主要用于探讨生态学的基本问题、评估渔业对生态系统的影响、提出渔业管理政策、评估海洋保护区域的效果和位置确定、评估环境变化对渔业的影响。该模型为海洋渔业和淡水渔业提供了分析和管理工具.     

Mapping the global network of fisheries science collaboration

As socio‐environmental problems have proliferated over the past decades, one narrative which has captured the attention of policymakers and scientists has been the need for collaborative research that spans traditional boundaries. Collaboration, it is argued, is imperative for solving these problems. Understanding how collaboration is occurring in practice is important, however, and may help explain the idea space across a field. In an effort to make sense of the shape of fisheries science, here we construct a co‐authorship network of the field, from a data set comprising 73,240 scientific articles, drawn from 50 journals and published between 2000 and 2017. Using a combination of social network analysis and machine learning, the work first maps the global structure of scientific collaboration amongst fisheries scientists at the author, country and institutional levels. Second, it uncovers the hidden subgroups—here country clusters and communities of authors—within the network, detailing also the topical focus, publication outlets and relative impact of the largest fisheries science communities. We find that whilst the fisheries science network is becoming more geographically extensive, it is simultaneously becoming more intensive. The uncovered network exhibits characteristics suggestive of a thin style of collaboration, and groupings that are more regional than they are global. Although likely shaped by an array of overlapping micro‐ and macro‐level factors, the analysis reveals a number of political–economic patterns that merit reflection by both fisheries scientists and policymakers.     

Giants' shoulders 15 years later: lessons,challenges and guidelines in fisheries meta‐analysis

Meta‐analysis has been an integral tool for fisheries researchers since the late 1990s. However, there remain few guidelines for the design, implementation or interpretation of meta‐analyses in the field of fisheries. Here, we provide the necessary background for readers, authors and reviewers, including a brief history of the use of meta‐analysis in fisheries, an overview of common model types and distinctions, and examples of different goals that can be achieved using meta‐analysis. We outline the primary challenges in implementing meta‐analyses, including difficulties in discriminating between alternative hypotheses that can explain the data with equal plausibility, the importance of validating results using multiple lines of evidence, the trade‐off between complexity and sample size and problems associated with the use of model output. For each of these challenges, we also provide suggestions, such as the use of propensity scores for dealing with selection bias and the use of covariates to control for confounding effects. These challenges are then illustrated with examples from diverse subfields of fisheries, including (i) the analysis of the stock–recruit relationship, (ii) fisheries management, rebuilding and population viability, (iii) habitat‐specific vital rates, (iv) life‐history theory and (v) the evaluation of marine reserves. We conclude with our reasons for believing that meta‐analysis will continue to grow in importance for these and many other research goals in fisheries science and argue that standards of practice are therefore essential.     

Ecosystem-based psychology, or, how I learned to stop worrying and love the data

The emerging fisheries science paradigm may be drifting in what some applied fisheries scientists consider an intractable assignment – Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) or the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries (EAF). In this paper I suggest that the lack of progress in implementing EBFM-EAF is partly psychological and that the multidisciplinary approach to it should include psychology, a discipline that has largely ignored the overwhelming problems of fisheries management.     

Narrow lenses for capturing the complexity of fisheries: A topic analysis of fisheries science from 1990 to 2016

Despite increased fisheries science output and publication outlets, the global crisis in fisheries management is as present as ever. Since a narrow research focus may be a contributing factor to this failure, this study uncovers topics in fisheries research and their trends over time. This interdisciplinary research evaluates whether science is diversifying fisheries research topics in an attempt to capture the complexity of the fisheries system, or whether it is multiplying research on similar topics, attempting to achieve an in‐depth, but possibly marginal, understanding of a few selected components of this system. By utilizing latent Dirichlet allocation as a generative probabilistic topic model, we analyse a unique dataset consisting of 46,582 full‐text articles published in the last 26 years in 21 specialized scientific fisheries journals. Among the 25 topics uncovered by the model, only one (Fisheries management) refers to the human dimension of fisheries understood as socio‐ecological complex adaptive systems. The most prevalent topics in our dataset directly relating to fisheries refer to Fisheries management, Stock assessment, and Fishing gear, with Fisheries management attracting the most interest. We propose directions for future research focus that most likely could contribute to providing useful advice for successful management of fisheries.     

Ecosystem‐based fisheries management: A perspective on the critique and development of the concept

The concept of ecosystem‐based fisheries management (EBFM) has been subjected to debate since it was introduced in the late 1990s. The development of the concept seems to follow two separate but simultaneous trajectories of increased popularity but also sustained critique. This paper offers an analysis of potential mechanisms behind these disparate trajectories by drawing on a theoretical framework from science and technology studies (STS) centred around "black box" and actor‐network theory. To support our analysis, we perform an exploratory literature review of how the EBFM concept has been used in a selection of high impact fisheries research papers. We find that the popularity of EBFM does not guarantee its integrity, usefulness or analytical insight, but also that persistent critique of how the concept is used seems to be driving some change. We think that a continued trajectory of increased understanding, contextualization and discernibility of EBFM can help overcome the considerable ambiguity associated with the concept and make it increasingly useful to fisheries management. This means moving away from routine use of the term towards a practicable and tangible approach to improve fisheries sustainability.     

Towards integrated research in fisheries science

In this paper we present a call for a re-directing fisheries science towards an integrated scientific activity which includes the trajectory of fish from eggs and their life underwater to consumption on the table. We propose that integrated research in fisheries science be defined as “interdisciplinary research for society and human well-being which deals with the sustainability of dynamic fisheries systems, taking various knowledge, values, and needs into account.” As an integrative discipline, fisheries science offers many advantages to overcoming the limitations of the traditional sciences. The ability to conduct traditional research activities based on each academic discipline is a prerequisite to participating in integrated research. However, “additional processes” are needed, such as the introduction of new integrated thinking, joint determination of the research framework, mutual learning by participating researchers, interaction with stakeholders, among others. Integrated research in fisheries science would allow overall influences to be analyzed, including exogenous factors such as environmental changes and other marine industries. Walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma provides a good model species for analyzing future scenarios of the structure of the industry as well as potential strategies for addressing and considering the effects of other highly fluctuating resources. One of the most challenging topics is identifying possible paths from a depleted stock to its future recovery. Scientific analyses on “How fast?” “Who should bear the costs?” “When it will occur”, etc., should be conducted by close interactions with stakeholders.     

全球主要渔业国家水产科学研究态势及其热点透视

为客观地揭示全球主要渔业国家水产科学的研究态势及其研究热点,以2000—2018年InCites和Web of Science核心合集中文献数据作为统计源,利用文献计量学方法,对其文献的增长趋势、被引情况及期刊分布进行分析,并基于合作网络分析、关键词共现的知识图谱等方法,探究全球水产科学的研究态势及其研究热点。结果显示,在水产科学研究文献的年度发文态势方面,美国的文献数量总体维持在较高水平并呈现动态波动,近年来略有下降趋势;中国大陆的研究文献基本上呈指数增长,并呈稳步上升趋势,至2018年接近美国的发文数量;其他国家都呈现较为平稳的动态波动。载文期刊分布均符合布拉德福提出的文献离散规律,各国载文量排名在前20的期刊大多为国际顶级期刊,其学术上的影响力较大。优势学科领域基本集中在海洋淡水生物学、兽医学、海洋学、动物学、免疫学、湖沼生物学以及生物化学与分子生物学等,但各国侧重点不一致。研究表明,全球主要渔业国家研究热点主要为:①基于生物学参考点的渔业管理与保护研究;②渔业资源评估与管理评价研究;③开展渔业资源的基础生物学研究;④开展基于生态系统的管理措施及政策目标研究等主题。各研究热点间均呈现高度融合的现象,促进了综合性交叉学科的发展。     

GLMs, GAMs and GLMMs: an overview of theory for applications in fisheries research

This paper provides an overview of the modelling process using generalized linear models (GLMs), generalized additive models (GAMs) and generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), especially as they are applied within fisheries research. We describe the essential aspect of model interpretation and construction so as to achieve its correct application. We start with the simplest models and show the progression from GLMs to either GAMs or GLMMs. Although this is not a comprehensive review, we emphasise topics relevant to fisheries science such as transformation options, link functions, adding model flexibility through splines, and using random and fixed effects. We finish by discussing the various aspects of these models and their variants, and provide a view on their relative benefits to fisheries research.     

Behavioural diversity in fishing—Towards a next generation of fishery models

Despite improved knowledge and stricter regulations, numerous fish stocks remain overharvested. Previous research has shown that fisheries management may fail when the models and assessments used to inform management are based on unrealistic assumptions regarding fishers' decision‐making and responses to policies. Improving the understanding of fisher behaviour requires addressing its diversity and complexity through the integration of social science knowledge into modelling. In our paper, we review and synthesize state‐of‐the‐art research on both social science's understanding of fisher behaviour and the representation of fisher decision‐making in scientific models. We then develop and experiment with an agent‐based social–ecological fisheries model that formalizes three different fishing styles. Thereby we reflect on the implications of our incorporation of behavioural diversity and contrast it with the predominant assumption in fishery models: fishing practices being driven by rational profit maximizing. We envision a next generation of fisheries models and management that account for social scientific knowledge on individual and collective human behaviours. Through our agent‐based model, we demonstrate how such an integration is possible and propose a scientific approach for reducing uncertainty based on human behavioural diversity in fisheries. This study serves to lay the foundations for a next generation of social–ecological fishery models that account for human behavioural diversity and social and ecological complexity that are relevant for a realistic assessment and management of fishery sustainability problems.