Covariation between the average lengths of mature coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) and the ocean environment

We used the average fork length of age‐3 returning coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and age‐3 ocean‐type and age‐4 stream‐type Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) salmon along the northeast Pacific coast to assess the covariability between established oceanic environmental indices and growth. These indices included the Multivariate El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northern Oscillation Index, and Aleutian Low Pressure Index. Washington, Oregon, and California (WOC) salmon sizes were negatively correlated with the MEI values indicating that ultimate fish size was affected negatively by El Niño‐like events. Further, we show that the growth trajectory of WOC salmon was set following the first ocean winter. Returning ocean‐type British Columbia‐Puget Sound Chinook salmon average fork length was positively correlated with the MEI values during the summer and autumn of return year, which was possibly a result of a shallower mixed layer and improved food‐web productivity of subarctic Pacific waters. Size variation of coho salmon stocks south of Alaska was synchronous and negatively correlated with warm conditions (positive PDO) and weak North Pacific high pressure during ocean residence.     

Effects of the North Pacific Current on the productivity of 163 Pacific salmon stocks

Horizontal ocean transport can influence the dynamics of higher‐trophic‐level species in coastal ecosystems by altering either physical oceanographic conditions or the advection of food resources into coastal areas. In this study, we investigated whether variability in two North Pacific Current (NPC) indices was associated with changes in productivity of North American Pacific salmon stocks. Specifically, we used Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate the effects of the north‐south location of the NPC bifurcation (BI) and the NPC strength, indexed by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), on the productivity of 163 pink, chum, and sockeye salmon stocks. We found that for salmon stocks located in Washington (WA) and British Columbia (BC), both the BI and NPGO had significant positive effects on productivity, indicating that a northward‐shifted bifurcation and a stronger NPC are associated with increased salmon productivity. For the WA and BC regions, the estimated NPGO effect was over two times larger than the BI effect for pink and chum salmon, whereas for sockeye salmon the BI effect was 2.4 times higher than the NPGO. In contrast to WA and BC stocks, we found weak effects of both horizontal ocean transport processes on the productivity of salmon stocks in Alaska. Our results indicated that horizontal transport pathways might strongly influence population dynamics of Pacific salmon in the southern part of their North American ranges, but not the northern part, suggesting that different environmental pathways may underlie changes in salmon productivity in northern and southern areas for the species under consideration.     

Nonrandom distribution of chum salmon stocks in the Bering Sea and the North Pacific Ocean estimated using mitochondrial DNA microarray

More than 1,000 age-identified chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta collected at 23 stations in the Bering Sea and the North Pacific Ocean in June to July 2003 were used to estimate their origin of stocks using a DNA microarray developed for analyzing the mitochondrial (mt)DNA haplotypes. The observed haplotype distribution was nearly the same as that reported previously for fish collected in September 2002 and 2003 in the present surveyed areas. A conditional maximum-likelihood method for estimation of stock compositions indicated that the Japanese stocks mainly distributed in north central Bering Sea, whereas the Russian stocks were mainly in western Bering Sea. The North American stocks were abundant in eastern Bering Sea and around the Aleutian Islands. Such an area-specific stock composition was not significantly different between mature and immature fish. Thus, the combined results of 2 years suggest that the distribution of chum salmon is nonrandom in the surveyed areas in summer and autumn, and that fish of the same origin migrate together to the same area irrespective of age.     

Differences in stability effects on the marine survival of hatchery pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) within the upwelling and downwelling domains of the northeast Pacific Ocean

Regional coastal conditions have a strong influence on juvenile salmon survival during their critical first months in the marine environment. Salmon (genus Oncorhynchus) survival has been thought to be favored within the high latitude downwelling domain if water column stabilities increase, whereas stability may have the opposite effect in upwelling‐dominated lower latitudes. In this study, the relationships between water column stabilities during early marine residence of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) in both the upwelling and downwelling domains of the northeast Pacific Ocean and marine survival rates for hatchery stocks ranging from Vancouver Island, British Columbia, to Kodiak Island, Alaska, were explored. Contrary to expectation, there was no clear difference in the effect of stability on marine survival rates in the downwelling and upwelling domains. In both domains, marine survival rates increased for pink salmon stocks that experienced below‐average stability on the inner shelf during early marine residence. Stability effects from the outer shelf showed no consistent relationship to marine survival within the northeast Pacific.     

Trends in coho marine survival in relation to the regime concept

There was a synchronous and significant decrease in marine survival of coho salmon in the Strait of Georgia, Puget Sound, and off the coast from California to Washington after 1989. This large-scale, synchronous change indicates that trends in coho marine survivals were linked over the southern area of their distribution in the north-east Pacific, and that these linkages were associated with a common event. Indicators of large-scale climate change (the Aleutian Low Pressure Index) and of recent regional climate change (the April flows from the Fraser River) also changed abruptly about the same time. The synchrony of trends in marine survival of aggregates of coho stocks from three distinct marine areas and trends in climate indices implies that climate/ocean changes can have profound impacts on the population dynamics of coho salmon. The trend towards low marine survival may persist as long as the trends in the climate indicators do not change.     

A century and a half of change in the climate of the NE Pacific

Spectral analysis of twenty-one climate records indicates that NE Pacific temperatures and winter wind stress have fluctuated at four dominant time scales in this century: 2–3 years (quasi-biennial oscillation), 5–7 years (El Nio-Southern Oscillation, ENSO), 20–25 years (bidecadal oscillation, BDO), and a poorly resolved, very-low-frequency (VLF) oscillation with a 50–75 year period. Forty-four per cent of the low-frequency variability in British Columbia air temperatures is associated with the strength of the Aleutian Low pressure system in winter. Only 42% of the 'strong' and 25% of the 'moderate' ENSO events in this century have produced large warm anomalies off BC. Interactions between the ENSO, bidecadal and very-low-frequency oscillations produce a pattern of alternating warm and cool climate states, with major warnings every 50 to 75 years. Since 1850 there have been seven warm periods, lasting an average of 11.4 years, and six cool periods lasting an average of 10.8 years. Sharp transitions from cool to warm climate states (as in 1977/78) occur when warming phases of the BDO and VLF oscillations coincide. Recent evidence suggests that the BDO may originate in either the tropical or the subtropical North Pacific. The NE Pacific has experienced a major warming since 1978. A long-range forecast suggests that the BDO and VLF oscillations peaked in 1989 and are currently in a cooling phase. Consequently, coastal temperatures should moderate for the rest of this century. A transition to the next cool climate state could occur about the year 2001. The forecast for moderating temperatures could begin the first phase of the recovery of the southern BC coastal chinook and coho salmon and herring stocks, which are currently at low abundance levels.     

Marine temperatures experienced by postsmolts and the survival of Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., in the North Sea area

The survival of two Atlantic salmon stocks that inhabit rivers confluent with the North Sea was examined in respect to historical distributions of sea surface water temperatures. The rivers Figgjo and North Esk are relatively small salmon rivers in southern Norway and eastern Scotland, respectively. Wild salmon smolts have been tagged in these rivers since 1965. Tag returns were used to evaluate the survival of salmon in the North Sea. Survival rates of one-sea-winter (1SW) and 2SW fish were correlated within stocks, as well as between stocks. Survival rates were compared with the areal extent of thermal habitat in the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean. A positive correlation was found between the area of 8–10°C water in May and the survival of salmon. A reciprocal negative correlation was also found between survival and 5–7°C water in the same month. An analysis of sea surface temperature distributions for periods of good vs. poor salmon survival showed that when cool surface waters dominate the Norwegian coast and North Sea during May, salmon survival has been poor. Conversely, when the 8°C isotherm has extended northward along the Norwegian coast during May, survival has been good. The effect of water temperature distributions on the growth of postsmolts and other survival factors are discussed.     

Time‐varying relationships between ocean conditions and sockeye salmon productivity

Environmental change is occurring at unprecedented rates in many marine ecosystems. Yet, environmental effects on fish populations are commonly assumed to be constant across time. In this study, I tested whether relationships between ocean conditions and productivity of North American sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks have changed over the past six decades. Specifically, I evaluated the evidence for non‐stationary relationships between three widely used ocean indices and productivity of 45 sockeye salmon stocks using hierarchical Bayesian models. The ocean indices investigated were the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), and sea surface temperature (SST). I found partial support for time‐varying salmon–ocean relationships. Non‐stationary relationships were strongest for the NPGO and weaker for the SST and PDO indices. Productivity–NPGO correlations tended to shift gradually over time with opposite trends for stocks in British Columbia (B.C.) and western Alaska; for B.C. stocks, the NPGO correlations shifted from significantly negative prior to 1980 to significantly positive after 1990, whereas for western Alaska stocks, the correlations shifted from positive to negative. Productivity–SST correlations showed declining trends for B.C. and Gulf of Alaska stocks, that is, correlations became more negative (B.C.) or less positive (Gulf of Alaska) over time. For the PDO, correlations weakened during the 1980s for western Alaska and B.C. stocks. Overall, these results provide evidence for time‐varying relationships between salmon productivity and environmental conditions over six decades, highlighting the need to recognize that historical responses of salmon populations to environmental change may not be indicative of future responses.     

An evaluation of the potential influence of SST and currents on the oceanic migration of juvenile and immature chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) by a simulation model

Using a salmon migration model based on the assumption that swimming orientation is temperature dependent, we investigated the determining factors of the migration of juvenile and immature chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) in the North Pacific. We compared the predictions of the model with catch data of immature and juvenile chum salmon collected by Japanese research vessels from 1972 to 1999. The salmon migration model reproduced the observed distributions of immature chum salmon and indicates that passive transport by wind‐driven and geostrophic currents plays an important role in the eastward migration of Asian salmon. These factors result in a non‐symmetric distribution of Asian and North American chum salmon in the open ocean. The directional swimming component contributes to the northward migration in summer. The model results indicate that during the first winter Asian chum salmon swim northward against the southward wind‐driven currents to stay in the western North Pacific. This suggests that Asian chum salmon require more energy to migrate than other stocks during the first winter of their ocean life.     

Climate‐induced nonlinearity in pelagic communities and non‐stationary relationships with physical drivers in the Kuroshio ecosystem

Climate‐induced nonlinearity in biological variability and non‐stationary relationships with physical drivers are crucial to understand responses of marine organisms to climate variability. These phenomena have raised concerns in the northeastern North Pacific, but are out of the spotlight in the northwestern North Pacific in spite of potential implications for this productive system under increased climate variability. Pelagic communities in the Kuroshio ecosystem have both ecological and economic importance. However, patterns of climate‐induced nonlinearity in pelagic communities are not well understood, and existence of non‐stationarity in their relationships with physical drivers remains obscure. Here, we compile large numbers of climatic, oceanic and biological long‐term time‐series data and employ diverse statistical techniques to reveal such climate‐induced nonlinearity and non‐stationarity. Results show that pelagic communities in the Tsushima and Pacific areas (major areas in the Kuroshio ecosystem) had regime shifts in the late 1990s and late 1980s, respectively. Winter sea surface temperatures in the Kuroshio Current path and in the eastern part of East China Sea, which are respectively affected by the Kuroshio Current and Siberian High, correlate with dominant variability patterns in their pelagic communities. Furthermore, non‐stationarity was identified with threshold years in the 1990s in the Tsushima area and in the 1980s in the Pacific area as a possible result of the declined variances in the Siberian High and Aleutian Low, respectively. Our findings provide insights on spatial differentiation of climate‐induced nonlinearity and non‐stationarity, which are valuable for the management of pelagic communities in the northwestern North Pacific under changing climatic conditions.