Assessing the potential for urban trees to facilitate forest tree migration in the eastern United States

Latitudinal shifts in tree species distributions are a potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. It has been hypothesized that some tree species may become extirpated as climate change effects may exceed their migration ability. The goal of this study was to compare tree species compositions in northern urban areas to tree compositions in forestland areas in the eastern U.S. as an indicator of the potential for urban trees to facilitate future forest tree species migration. Results indicated that a number of tree species native to eastern U.S. forests of southern latitudes are currently present in northern urban forests. The biomass density (Mg/ha) of urban tree species is typically less than half of forestland densities with the majority of urban tree species found in nearby (<100 km) forestland. Urban tree propagation is often facilitated by humans, whereas the necessary pollinators and agents of tree seed dispersal in forestlands may be lacking regardless of climate change. It is suggested that urban areas may serve divergent, dual roles as both a native tree seed source and refuge for a limited number of forestland tree species, but also a facilitator of non-native tree invasion.     

An indicator of tree migration in forests of the eastern United States

Changes in tree species distributions are a potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. The examination of tree species shifts in forests of the eastern United States largely has been limited to simulation activities due to a lack of consistent, long-term forest inventory datasets. The goal of this study was to compare current geographic distributions of tree seedlings (trees with a diameter at breast height ≤2.5 cm) with biomass (trees with a diameter at breast height > 2.5 cm) for sets of northern, southern, and general tree species in the eastern United States using a spatially balanced, region-wide forest inventory. Compared to mean latitude of tree biomass, mean latitude of seedlings was significantly farther north (>20 km) for the northern study species, while southern species had no shift, and general species demonstrated southern expansion. Density of seedlings relative to tree biomass of northern tree species was nearly 10 times higher in northern latitudes compared to southern latitudes. For forest inventory plots between 44° and 47° north latitude where southern tree species were identified, their biomass averaged 0.46 tonnes/ha while their seedling counts averaged 2600 ha⁻¹. It is hypothesized that as northern and southern tree species together move northward due to greater regeneration success at higher latitudes, general species may fill their vacated niches in southern locations. The results of this study suggest that the process of northward tree migration in the eastern United States is currently underway with rates approaching 100 km/century for many species.     

Larix olgensis growth-climate response between lower and upper elevation limits:an intensive study along the eastern slope of the Changbai Mountains,northeastern China

Larix olgensis is a dominant tree species in the forest ecosystems of the Changbai Mountains of northeast China.To assess the growth response of this species to global climate change,we developed three tree-ring width and biomass chronologies across a range of elevations in the subalpine forests on the eastern slope of the Changbai Mountains.We used dendroclimatic analyses to study key factors limiting radial growth in L.olgensis and its variation with elevation.The statistical characteristics of chronologies suggested that elevation is a determinant of tree growth patterns in the study area.Response function analysis of chronologies with climate factors indicated that climate–growth relationships changed with increasing elevation:tree growth at high elevation was strongly limited by June temperatures of the previous year,and as elevation decreases,the importance of temperature decreased;tree radial growth at mid-elevation was mainly controlled by precipitation towards the end of the growing season of the current year.Biomass chronologies reflected a stronger climatic signal than tree-ring width chronologies.Spatial correlation with gridded climate data revealed that our chronologies contained a strong regional temperature signal for northeast China.Trees growing below timberline appeared to be more sensitive to climate,thus optimal sites for examining growth trends as a function of climate variation are considered to be just below timberline.Our study objective was to provide information for more accurate prediction of the growth response of L.olgensis to future climate change on the eastern slope of the Changbai Mountains,and to provide information for future climate reconstructions using this tree species in humid and semi humid regions.     

Climate change impact predictions on Pinus patula and Pinus tecunumanii populations in Mexico and Central America

Climate change is likely to have a negative impact on natural populations of Pinus patula and Pinus tecunumanii, two globally important tree species in plantation forestry. The objective of this work was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the persistence of the natural populations of these species at their actual locations in order to take appropriate conservation measurements. A common approach to assess the impact of climate change on species natural distributions is climate envelope modeling (CEM). CEMs suggest significant impacts of climate change on the natural distribution of the two pine species, but their predictions contain considerable uncertainty related to the adaptive ability of tree populations to withstand future climate conditions. We assessed the adaptive ability of the two pine species based on the evaluations of provenance trials and used the results of these field trials to validate CEM impact assessment studies on provenance collection sites in the wild. The two pine species performed well in a wide range of climates, including conditions that were recorded by CEM as unsuitable for natural pine occurrence. The climate conditions where the two pine species naturally occur are predicted to become in the future more similar to the present climate of some areas where they are successfully established in field trials. These findings suggest that these pine species are in their natural habitat better adapted to climate change than CEM predicts. For the most vulnerable species, P. tecunumanii, human disturbances such as fragmentation from urbanization and conversion to agriculture that are occurring today are more urgent threats requiring action compared to the threat from climate change.     

Restoring forests: regeneration and ecosystem function for the future

Conventions and policies for biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation state the need for increased protection, restoration and climate change adaptation of forests. Much degraded land may be targeted for large-scale forest restoration, yet challenges include costs, a shortage of regeneration material and the need for restored forests to serve as a resource for communities. To ensure ecosystem function for the future, forest restoration programs must: (1) learn from the past; (2) integrate ecological knowledge; (3) advance regeneration techniques and systems; (4) overcome biotic and abiotic disturbances and (5) adapt for future forest landscapes. Historical forest conditions, while site-specific, may help to identify the processes that leave long-term legacies in current forests and to understand tree migration biology/population dynamics and their relationship with climate change. Ecological theory around plant–plant interactions has shown the importance of negative (competition) and positive (facilitation) interactions for restoration, which will become more relevant with increasing drought due to climate change. Selective animal browsing influences plant–plant interactions and challenges restoration efforts to establish species-rich forests; an integrated approach is needed to simultaneously manage ungulate populations, landscape carrying capacity and browse-tolerant regeneration. A deeper understanding of limiting factors that affect plant establishment will facilitate nursery and site preparation systems to overcome inherent restoration challenges. Severe anthropogenic disturbances connected to global change have created unprecedented pressure on forests, necessitating novel ecological engineering, genetic conservation of tree species and landscape-level approaches that focus on creating functional ecosystems in a cost-effective manner.

     

气候变化情景下河北省3个优势树种适宜分布区预测

【目的】探究河北省3个优势树种分布与气候因子的关系,并进行适宜分布区预测,以期为评估气候变化的影响及制定适宜未来气候变化的森林经营策略提供理论依据。【方法】依据河北省森林资源调查数据,选取华北落叶松、蒙古栎和油松这3个主要树种,采用ClimateAP气候模型生成当前及未来(2040—2069年和2070—2099年)与降水和温度相关的10个气候因子,利用MaxEnt生态位模型和基于3个气候变化情景(温室气体最低排放,RCP2.6;中度稳定排放,RCP4.5;高度排放,RCP8.5)的一致性预测,模拟3个树种当前和未来的潜在适宜分布区,并采取响应曲线分析主要气候因子对3个树种适宜分布区的影响。【结果】3个树种MaxEnt模型的受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC值)都大于0.85,具有较好的预测能力;当前3个树种主要适宜分布在燕山和太行山地区;影响3个树种分布的主导气候因子存在差异,华北落叶松主要受小于0℃年积温和湿季降水量的影响,蒙古栎则主要受最热月平均气温、Hargreaves水分亏缺和湿季降水量的影响,而最热月平均气温、湿季降水量、大于5℃年积温和年均气温是影响油松分布的主要气候因子;一致性预测表明,在2040—2069年,河北省华北落叶松分布面积明显扩大,蒙古栎分布面积变化较小,而油松分布面积显著缩小;在2070—2099年,3个树种的适宜分布面积都显著缩小,幅度均超过3%。【结论】随着气候变化,3个树种均有向高海拔地区迁移的趋势,但在经纬度方向上的分布变化不大。在未来3个树种的适宜分布区,采取人工手段(如造林)辅助树种扩散以适应气候变化,有利于提高森林生产力,构建健康稳定的森林生态系统。     

The cost of risk management and multifunctionality in forestry: a simulation approach for a case study area in Southeast Germany

Forest management faces growing uncertainty concerning environmental conditions and demand for ecosystem services. To help forest managers consider uncertainty, we applied a robust and multi-criteria approach to select the optimal composition of a forest enterprise from 12 stand types. In our simulation, the forest enterprise strives for either financial return or a multi-criteria forest management considering financial return, carbon storage and forest ecosystem stability. To quantify the influence of climate change on these decision criteria, we used the concept of analogous climate zones. Our results provide recommendations for long-term strategies for tree species selection in a Southeast German forest enterprise. The results show that considering both uncertainty and multifunctionality in forest management led to more diversified forest compositions. However, robust and multi-criteria optimisation required the forest enterprise to pay a premium in terms of lower income. Financial returns decreased when forest composition accounted for uncertainty or multiple objectives. We also found that adaptation measures could only partly financially compensate the effects of climate change. As the study is limited to two tree species, including additional tree species, variants of mixing proportions and further silvicultural strategies in the optimisation appears a promising avenue for future research.

     

Potential redistribution of tree species habitat under five climate change scenarios in the eastern US

Global climate change could have profound effects on the Earth’s biota, including large redistributions of tree species and forest types. We used DISTRIB, a deterministic regression tree analysis model, to examine environmental drivers related to current forest-species distributions and then model potential suitable habitat under five climate change scenarios associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO₂. Potential shifts in suitable habitat for 76 common tree species in the eastern US were evaluated based on more than 100,000 plots and 33 environmental variables related to climate, soils, land use, and elevation. Regression tree analysis was used to devise prediction rules from current species–environment relationships. These rules were used to replicate the current distribution and predict the potential suitable habitat for more than 2100 counties east of the 100th meridian. The calculation of an importance value-weighted area score, averaged across the five climate scenarios, allowed comparison among species for their overall potential to be affected by climate change. When this score was averaged across all five climate scenarios, 34 tree species were projected to expand by at least 10%, while 31 species could decrease by at least 10%. Several species (Populus tremuloides, P. grandidentata, Acer saccharum, Betula papyrifera, Thuja occidentalis) could have their suitable habitat extirpated from US. Depending on the scenario, the optimum latitude of suitable habitat moved north more than 20 km for 38–47 species, including 8–27 species more than 200 km or into Canada. Although the five scenarios were in general agreement with respect to the overall tendencies in potential future suitable habitat, significant variations occurred in the amount of potential movement in many of the species. The five scenarios were ranked for their severity on potential tree habitat changes. Actual species redistributions, within the suitable habitat modeled here, will be controlled by migration rates through fragmented landscapes, as well as human manipulations.     

Effect of elevated temperatures on carbon dioxide exchange in Picea rubens

We examined some of the physiological reasons that may underlie past and expected future migrations of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) by evaluating the effects of high temperatures on photosynthesis and respiration of trees growing on Whiteface Mountain, NY. At temperatures of 35-40 degrees C, the trees exhibited a zero or negative carbon balance. Higher temperatures resulted in cellular disorganization and death. Temperatures around 30 degrees C resulted in reduced CO(2) uptake, a condition that could decrease future reproductive output and competitive stature. We conclude that thermal intolerance explains, at least in part, the absence of red spruce at low elevations and latitudes where temperatures of >/= 30 degrees C occur. We suggest that the thermosensitivity of this species is important with respect to global climate trends and migration patterns.     

Forest responses to climate change in the northwestern United States: Ecophysiological foundations for adaptive management

Climate change resulting from increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide ([CO₂]) is expected to result in warmer temperatures and changed precipitation regimes during this century. In the northwestern U.S., these changes will likely decrease snowpack, cause earlier snowmelt, increase summer evapotranspiration, and increase the frequency and severity of droughts. Elevated [CO₂] and warmer temperatures may have positive effects on growth and productivity where there is adequate moisture or growth is currently limited by cold. However, the effects of climate change are generally expected to reduce growth and survival, predispose forests to disturbance by wildfire, insects, and disease; and ultimately change forest structure and composition at the landscape scale. Substantial warming will likely decrease winter chilling resulting in delayed bud burst, and adversely affect flowering and seed germination for some species. The extent of these effects will depend on the magnitude of climate change, the abilities of individual trees to acclimate, and for tree populations to adapt in situ, or to migrate to suitable habitats. These coping mechanisms may be insufficient to maintain optimal fitness of tree populations to rapidly changing climate. Physiological responses to climatic stresses are relatively well-understood at the organ or whole-plant scale but not at the stand or landscape scale. In particular, the interactive effects of multiple stressors is not well known. Genetic and silvicultural approaches to increase adaptive capacities and to decrease climate-related vulnerabilities of forests can be based on ecophysiological knowledge. Effective approaches to climate adaptation will likely include assisted migration of species and populations, and density management. Use of these approaches to increase forest resistance and resilience at the landscape scale requires a better understanding of species adaptations, within-species genetic variation, and the mitigating effects of silvicultural treatments.     

Predicting suitable habitats of endangered Juniperus procera tree under climate change in Northern Ethiopia

Juniperus procera is the most preferred tree in Ethiopia. It is an endangered tree species enumerated in IUCN red list. Accordingly, this study investigates the future suitable habitat of the J. procera under climate change in northern Ethiopia. Three occurrence districts were visited and 124 presence observations were taken. The records, altitude, and 19 bio-climatic variables were used to run a species distribution model to account for the climate change effect on the species. Maxent, Diva-GIS, and ArcGIS were used to evaluate the outputs. Future suitable habitats were projected into mid and end-century time frames with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and 8.5) under one General Circulation Model, namely the Climate Community System Model Version-4. Our results showed that minimum temperature of the coldest month and altitude are main predictors of the distribution of the species. Suitable habitats of the species will be decreased by 79.84%, 91.17%, 75.31%, and 96.25% in Mid-century RCP2.6, Mid-century RCP8.5, End-century RCP2.6, and End-century RCP8.5 when compared with current distributions, respectively. This indicates that climate change will affect the future distribution of the species. The results of the study indicate that appropriate management strategies must be taken to ensure the long-term survival of J. procera.     

Evaluating the suitability of nine shelterbelt species for dendrochronological purposes in the Canadian Prairies

Shelterbelts have played an important role in prairie agriculture since the late 1800s; however, little is known about how these shelterbelts may be affected by climate change. The objective of this study was to determine if shelterbelt species, which are heavily influenced by human activity, express a common radial-growth signal within and between trees. The study focused on the annual tree-ring growth of the nine most common shelterbelt species of the Canadian Prairies: Salix acutifolia (Acute willow), Caragana arborescens (caragana, or Siberian pea shrub), Picea pungens (Colorado spruce), Fraxinus pennsylvanica (green ash), Populus sp. (hybrid poplar), Acer negundo (Manitoba maple), Pinus sylvestris (Scots pine), Ulmus pumila (Siberian elm) and Picea glauca (white spruce). Tree core samples were collected near Saskatoon, Saskatchewan using traditional dendrochronological methods. The standardized growth of each species was compared with historical homogenized climate data in order to determine the key monthly climate variables impacting each species. Prior to this analysis, little was known about the suitability of six of these nine species for dendrochronological purposes. It was found that all species crossdate at a significant level, and that the three most significantly correlated climate factors are able to account for up to 37 % of the annual variation in tree-ring growth. The findings of this study suggest that all nine species are suitable, to varying degrees, for future dendrochronological research in the Canadian Prairies as well as having implications for shelterbelt systems elsewhere in the world. The top four species based on four ranking criteria (interseries correlation, mean sensitivity, climate explanatory power, and commonality) were white spruce, acute willow, caragana, and Manitoba maple, and initial results suggest that all species have the potential to be investigated in greater depth.     

Determining suitable locations for seed transfer under climate change: a global quantitative method

Changing climate conditions will complicate efforts to match seed sources with the environments to which they are best adapted. Tree species distributions may have to shift to match new environmental conditions, potentially requiring the establishment of some species entirely outside of their current distributions to thrive. Even within the portions of tree species ranges that remain generally suitable for the species, local populations may not be well-adapted to altered local conditions. To assist efforts to restore forests and to maximize forest productivity in the face of climate change, we developed a set of 30,000 quantitatively defined seed transfer “ecoregions” across the globe. Reflecting current and future conditions, these were created by combining global maps of potentially important environmental characteristics using a large-scale statistical clustering technique. This approach assigns every 4?km² terrestrial raster cell into an ecoregion using non-hierarchical clustering of the cells in multivariate space based on 16 environmental variables. Two cells anywhere on the map with similar combinations of environmental characteristics are located near each other in this data space; cells are then classified into relatively homogeneous ecoregion clusters. Using two global circulation models and two emissions scenarios, we next mapped the predicted environmentally equivalent future locations of each ecoregion in 2050 and 2100. We further depicted areas of decreasing environmental similarity to given ecoregions, both in current time and under climate change. This approach could help minimize the risk that trees used for production, restoration, reforestation, and afforestation are maladapted to their planting sites.     

Should we respect the historical reference as basis for the objective of forest restoration? A case study from Northeastern China

Under climate change, the adoption of historical reference as the objective of forest restoration is being questioned. In this study, the spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS was utilized to analyze how the forest landscape in the upper Hun River area of Liaoning province in northeast China would be affected under current climate trends and future climate change; and to explore whether the historical reference should be the objective of restoration efforts. The results showed that (1) the area percentage (AP) of Quercusmongolica under climate change is always higher than that under the current climate regime, while the AP of Pinuskoraiensis is lower than that under current climate; and (2) the competitive ability of Q. mongolica and Populus davidiana increases, while that of other species decreases under climate change. As interspecies competition shifts under climate change, the historical reference appears in appropriate to serve as the objective of forest restoration. In addition, although Q. mongolica would likely benefit from a warmer and drier climate, use of this species for forest restoration under climate change still requires further research.     

Climate Change Effects on Mediterranean Forests and Preventive Measures

This paper synthesizes and reviews literature concerning climate change effects on Mediterranean forest ecology and management as well as the restorative techniques necessary to maintain forest health, forest yield and biodiversity. Climate change compounded with trends of rural abandonment are likely to diminish forested areas within the Mediterranean basin that will be replaced by fire prone shrub communities. This could be favoured by outbreaks of pathogens, fire and other large-scale disturbances. Landscape fragmentation is expected to impede species migration. Annual increments and subsequent income from forests are expected to decrease. Reafforestations are necessary to ensure the presence of propagules of forest species and their site-specific varieties best adapted to future climatic conditions even though they may be different from the present forest-plant community. Current challenges in biodiversity conservation can only be met by afforestations whose main objective is to maintain ecosystem functioning. A new silviculture must emerge encompassing these habitat displacement and economic concerns while maximizing carbon sequestration.     

Vulnerability of Pinus cembra L. in the Alps and the Carpathian mountains under present and future climates

Proactive management should be applied within a forest conservation context to prevent extinction or degradation of those forest ecosystems that we suspect will be affected by global warming in the next century. The aim of this study is to estimate the vulnerability under climate change of a localized and endemic tree species Pinus cembra that occurs in the alpine timberline. We used the Random Forest ensemble classifier and available bioclimatic and ecological data to model present and future suitable areas for P. cembra and estimate its current and future vulnerability. Future projections for years 2020, 2050 and 2080 were simulated using two IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios run under four global climate models.     

Divergent growth responses and increasing temperature limitation of Qinghai spruce growth along an elevation gradient at the northeast Tibet Plateau

Divergent responses between tree growth and climate factors have been widely reported at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere. Here we show variable climate-growth relationships and divergent growth responses of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassfolia) along an elevation gradient at a mid-latitude site at the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, China. Trees from higher elevations, limited mainly by temperature, show divergent growth trends over time and two responses to climate. Some trees show increasing positive and some increasing negative responses to growing season temperature during the last decades. Trees from lower treeline show a strengthening drought stress signal over time and no divergent growth trends within sites. Our results indicate that single tree analysis might be a worthwhile tool to (1) uncover spatial–temporal changes in climate-growth relationships of trees, (2) better understand future growth performance and (3) help overcome current limitations of tree ring based climatic reconstructions.     

Response to comments on “Root respiration data and minirhizotron observations conflict with root turnover estimates from sequential soil coring”

Abstract

Climatic warming may lead to increased or decreased future forest productivity. However, more frequent heat waves, droughts and storms and accompanying pathogen attacks are also expected for Europe and are considered to be increasingly important abiotic and biotic stress factors for forests. Adaptive forestry can help forest ecosystems to adapt to these new conditions in order to achieve management goals, maintain desired forest ecosystem services and reduce the risks of forest degradation. With a focus on central Europe, this paper presents the following management strategies: (1) conservation of forest structures, (2) active adaptation, and (3) passive adaptation. The feasibility and criteria for application of the different strategies are discussed. Forest adaptation may entail the establishment of “neonative” forests, including the use and intermixing of native and non-native tree species as well as non-local tree provenances that may adapt better to future climate conditions. An integrative adaptive management concept is proposed that combines (1) species suitability tests and modelling activities at the international scale, (2) priority mapping of adaptation strategies at the national to regional scale, and (3) implementation at the local scale. To achieve this, an international experimental trial system is required to test suitable adaptive measures throughout Europe and worldwide.     

Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios

We modeled and mapped, using the predictive data mining tool Random Forests, 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change. Each species was modeled individually to show current and potential future habitats according to two emission scenarios (high emissions on current trajectory and reasonable conservation of energy implemented) and three climate models: the Parallel Climate Model, the Hadley CM3 model, and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model. Since we model potential suitable habitats of species, our results should not be interpreted as actual changes in ranges of the species. We also evaluated both emission scenarios under an “average” future climate from all three models. Climate change could have large impacts on suitable habitat for tree species in the eastern United States, especially under a high emissions trajectory. Of the 134 species, approximately 66 species would gain and 54 species would lose at least 10% of their suitable habitat under climate change. A lower emission pathway would result in lower numbers of both losers and gainers. When the mean centers, i.e. center of gravity, of current and potential future habitat are evaluated, most of the species habitat moves generally northeast, up to 800 km in the hottest scenario and highest emissions trajectory. The models suggest a retreat of the spruce-fir zone and an advance of the southern oaks and pines. In any case, our results show that species will have a lot less pressure to move their suitable habitats if we follow the path of lower emissions of greenhouse gases. The information contained in this paper, and much more, is detailed on our website: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas.