A tree species range in the face of climate change: cork oak as a study case for the Mediterranean biome

Species distribution models are feasible methods for projecting theoretical responses of living organisms’ occurrence under several future climate change scenarios. The major interest is focused on trees, which regulate the equilibrium within ecosystems and guarantee the survival of many life forms on the Earth. The repercussions of climatic drivers are expected to pose the strongest threats for the Mediterranean biome, an acknowledged hotspot of biodiversity. Here, we focused on cork oak (Quercus suber L.), a keystone species of many landscapes, sustaining a rich biodiversity, ecological processes and economic incomes. Results of 8 combined ecological modelling techniques and two Global Circulation Models highlight a broad contraction of the species potential range over the twenty-first century, both under intermediate and high emissions scenarios. Coupled northward and upward shifts are predicted, mostly pertaining Iberia and North Africa. The potential areas detected at Levantine will likely undergo disappearance. To exacerbate the impacts of climate change, the future of the ecosystems linked to cork oak remains uncertain, because of the expected implications on the phenotypic plasticity or evolutionary responses. A synergy among niche-based, physiological and eco-genetic investigations is strongly needed in the field of applied research, to improve the assessment of conservation and reforestation actions.     

Pathways for resilience in Mediterranean cork oak land use systems

Context

Loss of woodlands and degradation of vegetation and soil have been described for all Mediterranean-type ecosystems worldwide. In the Western Iberian Peninsula, overexploitation of evergreen cork oak land use systems has led to soil erosion, failures in oak recruitment, and loss of forests. Degraded and dry sites are quickly colonised by pioneer heathland rockrose (Cistus spp.) shrubs forming highly persistent patches.

Aims

Although traditionally shrublands have been considered as a transient successional state, we present evidence that they can represent persistent alternative states to former cork oak forests.

Review trends and conclusions

We first describe how Mediterranean vegetation evolved in the Iberian Peninsula and the role of fire and long-term human management as main disturbances. We then discuss alternative pathways through state-and-transition models indicating the ecological and land use variables that halt cork oak regeneration and recruitment and drive vegetation transitions towards persistent shrublands. Unless concerted management actions and restoration programmes are undertaken, the cork oak land use systems will not be sustainable.     

A review of the development of Mediterranean pine–oak ecosystems after land abandonment and afforestation: are they novel ecosystems?

Context

Mediterranean landscapes are composed of different interacting vegetation patches. Pine and oak ecosystems form contiguous patches within these landscapes, in pure stands, or as mixed pine?Coak ecosystems. During the nineteenth century, pine forest distribution in the Mediterranean Basin increased dramatically as a result of large-scale re-forestation and spontaneous forest regeneration. At the same time, secondary succession of abandoned agricultural land allowed development of pine and oak ecosystems. Consequently, a pine?Coak mosaic has developed, which created opportunities for cross-colonization, i.e. species colonization from one ecosystem in the reciprocal system. Pines shed their wind-dispersed seeds and colonize Mediterranean oak vegetation. Oaks regenerate in different ecosystems, including pine forest understories.

Research question

This paper reviews fire-free landscape-scale dynamics of pine?Coak Mediterranean mosaics and analyze how landscape-scale interactions are leading to pine?Coak ecosystems by different processes.

Results

Published information from the Mediterranean Basin illustrates pathways of pine?Coak ecosystems formation. Using Mediterranean literature, I try to elucidate the factors that (1) control colonization potential and (2) modulate the resistance to colonization, in different habitats, land uses, and landscape settings.

Conclusion

Management implications for these mixed pine?Coak ecosystems are suggested. The question of whether they are novel ecosystems is discussed.     

Development of oaks (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.) emerged from bird-dispersed seeds under old-growth pine (Pinus silvestris L.) stands

In East Germany, there are a lot of areas covered by old pine stands. They are growing on soils, on which under natural conditions without anthropogenic impact mixed stands of oak (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.) and pine (Pinus silvestris L.), would form a natural forest. An important objective of ecological silviculture in these areas is to convert the pure pine stands into mixed oak–pine stands by using natural regeneration methods. A highly appreciated assistant in this connection is the European jay (Garrulus glandarius L.). The remarkable results of its work have been found by analyzing the natural regeneration in a few old pine stands in the forest district of Weißwasser in Saxony. Although mother trees of oak are very scarce there, natural regeneration of oak was found everywhere in the research area. The oak regeneration, undoubtedly created by the jay, amounted to at least 2000 oaks/ha. They were mainly distributed at random, while pine regeneration was aggregated in places where gaps in the pine canopy occurred. Oak regeneration was established much earlier than pine regeneration. Thus, oaks exceeded pines in age, height and diameter. The oaks were also superior to pines concerning height increment for the last three years. Thus, there is a good chance for oak to defend its prevailing role in the regeneration in the future. Probably, the next forest generation will be composed of oak and pine trees. The analysis of the quality of the oak regeneration shows that there is no substantial difference to artificially sown oak stands. This indicates that the European jay creates oak stands sufficiently both in number and quality.     

Why and where do adult trees die in a young secondary temperate forest? The role of neighbourhood

? The density and identity of tree neighbourhood is a key factor to explain tree mortality in forests, especially during the stem exclusion phase.

? To understand this process, we built a logistic model for mortality in a spatially explicit context, including tree and neighbourhood predictors. Additionally, we used this model to build mortality risk frequency distributions. Finally, we tested this model against a random mortality model to predict the spatial pattern of the forest.

? Annual mortality rate was high for pedunculate oak (Quercus robur, 6.99%), moderate for birch (Betula celtiberica, 2.19%) and Pyrenean oak (Q. pyrenaica, 1.58%) and low for beech (Fagus sylvatica, 0.26%). Mortality risk models for pedunculate oak and birch included stem diameter, tree height, canopy position and neighbourhood. Mortality was affected by the specific nature of the neighbourhood showing a clear competitive hierarchy: beech > pedunculate oak > birch. Models based on random mortality and logistic regression model were able to predict the spatial pattern of survivors although logistic regression predictions were more accurate.

? Our study highlights how simple models such as the random mortality one may obscure much more complex spatial interactions.

     

Establishment and growth of oak (Quercus alba, Quercus prinus) seedlings in burned and fire-excluded upland forests on the Cumberland Plateau

Recurrent problems with regeneration of oaks (Quercus spp.) have been documented across a wide range of ecosystems. In oak-dominated forests of the central and Appalachian hardwood regions of the United States, a lack of competitive oak regeneration has been tied, in part, to fire suppression in these landscapes, and managers throughout the region are using prescribed fire to address this concern. To examine fire effects on oak regeneration, researchers have generally relied on inventories or population studies of existing seedlings. These studies are valuable but do not permit examination of the role of fire in enhancing the establishment and growth of new oak seedlings stemming from oak mast events. In this study, white (Quercus alba) and chestnut oak (Quercus prinus) acorn mast crops serendipitously occurred in year three (fall 2005) of a landscape-scale prescribed fire experiment. We examined establishment, survival, height and diameter of new seedlings on sites on the Cumberland Plateau in eastern Kentucky. Treatments were fire exclusion, a single prescribed fire (1x-burn; 2003), and repeated prescribed fire (3x-burn; 2003, 2004, and after acorn drop in 2006), all conducted in late spring. Initial densities of newly established chestnut and white oak seedlings were statistically similar across treatments (P = 0.42), despite fires on the 3x-burn site having occurred after acorns were on the ground. Oak seedling density was significantly predicted by oak basal area on all sites (R² = 0.12–0.46), except for chestnut oak on fire-excluded sites (R² = 0.04). Litter depth was less on 3x-burn sites compared to 1x-burn and fire-excluded sites, whereas canopy openness was greater on both burn treatments compared to fire-excluded sites. Seedling mortality was generally higher on fire-excluded sites compared to burn sites, especially for white oak. Oak seedling mortality in the first two growing seasons was significantly predicted by initial litter depth and open sky, with greater litter depth and lower percent open sky leading to higher mortality. In the third growing season none of the measured variables predicted chestnut oak seedling survival; for white oak, percent open sky remained a significant predictor of mortality. Initially, seedlings on the fire-excluded sites had similar height but smaller diameter; after three growing seasons there were few differences in seedling height or diameter among treatments. Our findings suggest a potential role for prescribed fire in establishing forest floor and light conditions that may enhance the success of new oak germinants, although different responses among species may suggest the need to target management for individual oak species.     

Effects of silvicultural disturbance on acorn infestation and removal

Oak (Quercus spp.) regeneration is an important forest management goal in the central hardwood forest region of the United States. Silvicultural methods that target oak regeneration, such as the creation of canopy openings and removal of shade-tolerant midstory trees, are complicated by the impact of pre- and post-dispersal predators of oak acorns like acorn weevils (Curculio spp.) and granivorous small mammals. Understanding the effects of forest disturbance created by silviculture on these predators is important to promote successful oak regeneration. We conducted a 6-year study of acorn production, weevil infestation, and acorn removal at 113 black (Q. velutina) and white oak (Q. alba) trees impacted by three types of silvicultural treatments: adjacent to harvest openings, midstory removal (first-stage shelterwood harvest), and control (no harvest) in south-central Indiana, USA. We observed highly variable acorn production across years, but minimal impact of silvicultural treatments. Levels of weevil infestation and acorn removal by small mammal seed predators also varied greatly, and predation pressure was highest in years when acorns were scarce. Weevil infestation was reduced following midstory removal in shelterwood harvests, but probability of acorn removal by small mammals was unchanged following harvest. Damaged, germinated, and weevil-infested acorns were less likely to be removed by seed predators, suggesting additive effects of pre- and post-dispersal predators. This study emphasizes the importance of considering acorn predators in oak regeneration silviculture, and timing harvests to follow large acorn crops in order to reduce predation pressure and generate a high number of seedlings.     

Long-term effects of single prescribed fires on hardwood regeneration in oak shelterwood stands

One of the arguments against using prescribed fire to regenerate oak (Quercus spp.) forests is that the improvement in species composition of the hardwood regeneration pool is temporary and multiple burns are necessary to achieve and maintain oak dominance. To explore this concern, I re-inventoried a prescribed fire study conducted in the mid-1990s to determine the longevity of the effects of a single prescribed fire on hardwood regeneration. The initial study was conducted in three oak shelterwood stands in central Virginia, USA. In 1994, each stand was divided into four treatments (spring, summer, and winter burns and a control) and the hardwood regeneration was inventoried before the fires. During the burns, fire intensity was measured and categorized in each regeneration sampling plot. Second-year postfire data showed marked differences in species mortality rates, depending on season-of-burn and fire intensity: oak and hickory (Carya spp.) regeneration dominated areas burned by medium- to high-intensity fire during the spring and summer while yellow-poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera) and red maple (Acer rubrum) seedlings dominated unburned areas and all areas treated with low-intensity fire regardless of season-of-burn. The treatments were re-inventoried in 2006 and 2007 to determine whether these fire effects were still present. The new data show that the species distributions by season-of-burn and fire intensity found in 1996 still existed 11 years after the treatments. The fact that fire effects in oak shelterwood stands can last at least a decade has important management implications for resource professionals interested in sustaining oak forests in the eastern United States.     

A suggested approach for design of oak (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Quercus</Emphasis> L.) regeneration research considering regional differences

Research on oak (Quercus L.) regeneration has generally consisted of small-scale studies of treatments designed to favor oak, including consideration of site quality and topographic effects on oak regeneration. However, these experiments have not consistently factored in broader-scale ecological differences found in the eastern United States. Oak regeneration experiments should be replicated at appropriate ecological scales to address the similarities and differences in regeneration following prescribed silvicultural treatments among ecological units. Patterns in oak regeneration can be better understood in an ecological context by considering how oak species interact in the differing physical environments and are able to maintain dominance in changing complexes of competing vegetation among the selected eco-units. Our understanding of oak regeneration response to specific silvicultural practices and our ability to model regeneration is improved when we use replication, blocking, or factorial deployment of relatively small-scale (0.5–1.0 ha) treatment plots within an ecological classification system. We present an example of this approach to understanding oak regeneration dynamics in a synthesis of research to regenerate northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) by underplanting shelterwoods in Arkansas, Missouri and Indiana. We summarize important considerations to guide the design of future research in oak regeneration. Paul S. Johnson and David L. Graney—Retired U.S. Forest Service scientists.     

Species-specific spatial structure,species coexistence and mortality pattern in natural,uneven-aged Scots pine (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus sylvestris</Emphasis> L.)-dominated forest

Complexity of uneven-aged forests results from the heterogeneity of their structure reflected among others by the spatial pattern of their components. Forest structure is usually modified by various processes operating at different scales and time. Structure and processes are not independent, and both are important drivers of forest dynamics. The impact of natural processes on forest structure manifested in the specific spatial pattern of trees can be quantified by point pattern analysis applied to long-term repeatedly measured stem-mapped plots. Such studies are relatively scarce in the literature although they provide better insight into the mechanisms affecting forest dynamics. Our study is focused on the spatiotemporal analysis of the structure of mixed uneven-aged Scots pine-dominated forest located at the Kampinoski National Park (Poland). Univariate analysis showed that the initial pattern of all live trees was initially random and it shifted toward more uniform with forest aging. Spatial patterns of individual tree species varied from that stated for all forest community. We observed changes in spatial pattern of Scots pine and common oak from random toward more clumped (pine) or uniform (oak) pattern. In case of black alder and common birch, the initial aggregated pattern was maintained over the examined 14-year period of the forest succession. Bivariate analysis showed that the most common interspecific association between pairs of tree species was spatial segregation (pine vs. alder, alder vs. birch and oak vs. birch) followed by spatial independence (pine vs. oak and oak vs. alder). The positive association was stated only for pine and birch and only for certain spatial scales (> 5 m). Simultaneously, at small distances they showed reciprocal repulsion. Changes in spatial relationships between tree species were negligible over 14-year period of forest succession. Our results confirmed the density-dependent mortality process in the uneven-aged Scots pine-dominated forest over 14-year period of forest development. Our study showed that spatial interactions between individuals along with species-specific ecological requirements should be incorporated into realistic models of forest development, helping to manage the forest ecosystems toward their greater structural complexity.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Quercus suber</Emphasis> forest and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus</Emphasis> plantations show different post-fire resilience in Mediterranean north-western Africa

Key message

In the African rim of the Western Mediterranean Basin, cork oak forests and pine plantations coexist. Under similar fire regimes, cork oak forest is more resilient in terms of habitat structure (canopy, understory, and complexity of vegetation strata) than pine plantation. By contrast, both woodland types show similar resilience in plant species composition. Resilience in habitat structure varies between the two woodland types because of the resprouting and seeding strategies of cork oak and pine species, respectively. These differences can be relevant for the conservation of biodiversity of forested ecosystems in a future scenario of increased fire frequency and scale in the Mediterranean basin.

Context

Wildfires have major impacts on ecosystems globally. In fire-prone regions, plant species have developed adaptive traits (resprouting and seeding) to survive and persist due to long evolutionary coexistence with fire. In the African rim of the Western Mediterranean Basin, cork oak forest and pine plantation are the most frequently burnt woodlands. Both species have different strategies to respond fire: cork oak is a resprouter while pines are mostly seeders.

Aims

We have examined the hypothesis that pine plantations are less resilient in habitat structure (canopy, understory, diversity of vegetation strata) and plant composition than cork oak woodlands.

Methods

The habitat structure and plant species composition were measured in 30 burnt and 30 unburnt 700-m transects at 12 burnt sites from north-western Africa, where the two forest types can coexist. Habitat structure and plant species composition were compared between burnt and unburnt transects from cork oak and pine plantation woodlands with generalized linear mixed models and general linear models.

Results

The results showed significant interaction effect of fire and forest type, since cork oak forest was more resilient to fire than was pine plantation in habitat structure. By contrast, both forest types were resilient to fire in the composition of the plant communities, i.e., plant composition prior to fire did not change afterwards.

Conclusion

The higher structural resilience of cork oak forest compared to pine plantation is related to the resprouting and seeding strategies, respectively, of the dominant tree species. Differences in the responses to fire need to be considered in conservation planning for the maintenance of the Mediterranean biodiversity in a future scenario of changes in fire regime.

     

Modelling self-pruning and branch attributes for young Quercus robur L. and Fagus sylvatica L. trees

The aim of this study was to develop statistical models for first order branchiness in young planted forest stands of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), and to give an ecological and silvicultural interpretation to these models. The reported models focus on the lower most-valuable stem part (i.e. until 6 m height), and cover different tree development classes to capture the development of branchiness over time. For each species 30 study plots were selected spread over two nearby forests in Flanders (northern Belgium), minimising site and genetic variability. Branches were counted on a total of 399 oak and 376 beech trees. On a subsample of 30 trees per species (one tree per plot), detailed non-destructive branch measurements were performed, yielding data for 555 oak and 438 beech branches. For both species, models for tree self-pruning (i.e. total branch number and dead branch portion), branch mortality and branch architecture (i.e. branch diameter and branch insertion angle) were built. A generalised linear mixed modelling approach was adopted. The models for total branch number and dead branch portion may be interpreted in terms of four processes contributing to self-pruning: (1) stand and tree development, (2) tree competitive status, (3) stand density and (4) site humidity. The reported models reveal similar self-pruning rates in oak and beech, but with different driving factors: early branch dying and slow shedding for oak and the other way around for beech. Mortality of individual branches is further determined by branch position and branch dimension. Branch diameter and branch insertion angle of both species are mainly related to branch cord length and relative branch position. All modelled effects are consistent with known ecological and ecophysiological processes. Silvicultural implications for stand establishment and early tree selection are discussed. The reported models can be used to fine-tune operational silvicultural choices for quality timber production. This is a first step towards the integration of branchiness models for oak and beech into forest growth simulators.     

Spatial pattern of trees influences species productivity in a mature oak–pine mixed forest

Spatial pattern has a key role in the interactions between species in plant communities. These interactions influence ecological processes involved in the species dynamics: growth, regeneration and mortality. In this study, we investigated the effect of spatial pattern on productivity in mature mixed forests of sessile oak and Scots pine. We simulated tree locations with point process models and tree growth with spatially explicit individual growth models. The point process models and growth models were fitted with field data from the same stands. We compared species productivity obtained in two types of mixture: a patchy mixture and an intimate mixture. Our results show that the productivity of both species is higher in an intimate mixture than in a patchy mixture. Productivity difference between the two types of mixture was 11.3 % for pine and 14.7 % for oak. Both species were favored in the intimate mixture because, for both, intraspecific competition was more severe than interspecific competition. Our results clearly support favoring intimate mixtures in mature oak–pine stands to optimize tree species productivity; oak is the species that benefits the most from this type of management. Our work also shows that models and simulations can provide interesting results for complex forests with mixtures, results that would be difficult to obtain through experimentation.     

Trends in North American and European regeneration research under the ecosystem management paradigm

Forest management on many ownerships in North America and Europe has shifted toward the ecosystem management paradigm. The associated shift toward multiple management objectives and focus on natural development patterns should also be reflected in regeneration research efforts. As new information needs arise, research questions and approaches should be evaluated whether they are still appropriate. Specifically, spatial and temporal scales of research studies need to be expanded to accommodate complex sets of management objectives and constraints, rather than being focused on optimal tree regeneration. At the same time, silviculturists are asked to utilize natural trends as a guide for management, but most natural disturbance studies have focused on stand structures and not the regeneration processes. Criteria commonly used to describe disturbance regimes need to be modified to better guide regeneration research efforts under the ecosystem management paradigm.     

Oak and red maple seedling survival and growth following periodic prescribed fire on xeric ridgetops on the Cumberland Plateau

To test the hypothesis that repeated prescribed fires alone can improve the status of oak regeneration, a long-term seedling population study was established to follow permanently tagged chestnut oak (Q. prinus L.), scarlet oak (Q. coccinea Muenchh.), and red maple (Acer rubrum L.) seedlings over 8 years in sites where fire was excluded, and where fire was applied either three (3×) or four (4×) times.     

Structure and floristic diversity in permanent monitoring plots in forest ecosystems of Tuscany

The sampling method is described which is used for the sampling of plant species richness and cover in a monitoring project on forest ecosystems in Tuscany (named MONITO). Species richness is sampled through a nested plot design, with plot size ranging from 1 to 2500 m², whereas species abundance is estimated in 100 m² plots. This sampling design is simple to install and to manage through time. Species diversity can be monitored not just at one single spatial scale but at many scales, and species–area relations can also be calculated. The analyses of the data that were collected produced the first available data on species richness in relation to plot size for Tuscan forest ecosystems, indeed for any Italian forests. The Arrhenius Power function and the General Root models showed the best fit. Turkey oak (Quercus cerris) woods located on slightly acidic soil were found to be the forest ecosystems with the highest species richness, confirming and quantifying well-established floristic-phytosociological knowledge. Habitat heterogeneity, measured by plot floristic resemblance, showed how the Turkey oak woods were the most heterogeneous at the smaller spatial scales, but not at larger ones.     

Ectomycorrhizal inoculation with Pisolithus tinctorius increases the performance of Quercus suber L. (cork oak) nursery and field seedlings

Mediterranean ecosystems are characterized by large arid areas where the patchy distribution of trees offers little protection against harsh climate conditions for seedling establishment. Climate change is predicted to result in an increase in these arid regions, with pronounced effects on vegetation. Production of seedlings with developed ectomycorrhizas is a promising strategy for minimizing the initial transplant shock, thereby increasing plant survival and growth during the first, most critical years of a plantation. One important species in the Mediterranean basin is Quercus suber (cork oak), which occurs, together with other evergreen oak species, in an agro-silvo-pastoral system that represents an example of sustainable land use in Europe. In this study, a Pisolithus tinctorius isolate was used for ectomycorrhizal colonization of cork oak nursery seedlings, and the effects on aboveground plant growth and leaf structural and physiological parameters were investigated. Ectomycorrhizal development resulted in a significant increase in leaf area, dry weight, nitrogen content, and photosynthetic pigments, and mycorrhizal plants showed a higher photosynthetic capacity and water use efficiency. Nursery-inoculated plants established in the field showed increased survival and growth during the first year after transplant. These results indicate a potential for further enhancing the use of mycorrhizal inoculation as a cultivation practice in forest nurseries. Considering the difficulty of soil restoration under limiting environmental conditions, nursery inoculation with ectomycorrhizal fungi can be an important advantage for improving the quality of seedling stock and its performance after out-planting in the field, benefiting the regeneration of arid regions and the reintroduction of inocula of ectomycorrhizal fungi into these areas.     

Factors affecting post-fire crown regeneration in cork oak (Quercus suber L.) trees

Cork oak (Quercus suber) forests are acknowledged for their biodiversity and economic (mainly cork production) values. Wildfires are one of the main threats contributing to cork oak decline in the Mediterranean Basin, and one major question that managers face after fire in cork oak stands is whether the burned trees should be coppiced or not. This decision can be based on the degree of expected crown regeneration assessed immediately after fire. In this study we carried out a post-fire assessment of the degree of crown recovery in 858 trees being exploited for cork production in southern Portugal, 1.5 years after a wildfire. Using logistic regression, we modelled good or poor crown recovery probability as a function of tree and stand variables. The main variables influencing the likelihood of good or poor crown regeneration were bark thickness, charring height, aspect and tree diameter. We also developed management models, including simpler but easier to measure variables, which had a lower predictive power but can be used to help managers to identify, immediately after fire, trees that will likely show good crown regeneration, and trees that will likely die or show poor regeneration (and thus, potential candidates for trunk coppicing).     

Modeling the long-term natural regeneration potential of woodlands in semi-arid regions to guide restoration efforts

Understanding forest regeneration at sites previously used for agriculture underlies the establishment of science-based woodlands management policies. This is especially relevant in semi-arid areas, where the tree cover is critical in ameliorating the effects of aridity and in preventing desertification and land degradation. Natural regeneration in semi-arid areas occurs very slowly, which in part explains why it has hardly been studied. In the present work, we sought to devise a method to predict the natural regeneration potential of woodlands in semi-arid areas, to be used in guiding restoration efforts. Specifically, we evaluated holm oak coverage at a long-term ecological research site and then designed and validated a model to predict the natural regeneration of holm oak based on a few environmental variables. Unlike available studies, we obtained long-term information on tree regeneration (making use of >60 years of aerial photography) and climate (using long-term climate and microclimate data). We found that microclimate, measured using the potential solar radiation as a proxy, was a key driver of natural regeneration: after 60 years of agricultural abandonment, less sun-exposed areas attained a tree cover >90 %, whereas in more sun-exposed areas it remained below 20 %. We then used the model to map the natural regeneration potential, first in the study area and then in an area where holm oak plantations had been unsuccessfully introduced. In the latter case, the model successfully predicted the failure of this reforestation effort. Our results support the use of this model by decision makers to optimize management practices, as it will encourage the concentration of efforts in areas more prone to successful reforestation and allow the identification of areas more likely to benefit from natural regeneration processes.     

Analysis of spatial patterns of oak decline in cork oak woodlands in Mediterranean conditions

? Cork oak mortality is a recurrent problem in southwestern Portugal. Despite the perception of increasingly visible damage in oak woodlands on drought-prone sites, the role of the various environmental factors in their decline is not clear.

? To describe the spatial patterns of cork oak (Quercus suber L.) mortality, a cork oak mortality index (MI) was determined for each landscape feature (agroforestry system, soil type, slope and aspect) using a GIS approach. To achieve this goal, a logistic regression model was formulated analyzing interactions between landscape attributes and allowing a prediction of cork oak mortality.

? Maximum values of MI were found in (i) shrublands and open woodlands with shrub encroachment (MI 6 and 3, respectively), where competition for soil water between tree and understory increases; and (ii) on lower slopes in the rounded hilltops and smooth hillsides or shallow soils where access to groundwater resources during summer drought is difficult.

? The model highlighted the importance of the agroforestry systems on cork oak mortality and may be used to identify sensitive areas where mitigation actions should be employed in a scenario of increasing drought severity in these Mediterranean ecosystems.