悖论诗学视阈中的杜诗艺术风格特质新探

研究了委托人与代理人双边风险厌恶及存在监督情形下的委托-代理问题.结论表明非对称信息下最优风险分担系数是委托人风险厌恶程度的递增函数，是代理人风险厌恶程度的递减函数，代理人努力水平是其风险厌恶程度的递减函数.监督措施的存在提高了对代理人的激励强度.     

中国信用环境评价——基于2006~2010年的省际数据

在一般的期望效用框架下,研究投资者的风险厌恶态度对于其套期保值策略的影响.首先,给出了投资者采用不同套期保值策略时,效用函数应该满足的条件;其次,讨论了期望效用框架下,Rubinstein整体风险厌恶度量与经典的ArrowPratt局部风险厌恶度量和更强的Ross的风险度量之间的关系,提出了一组条件,使得在该组条件下,风险厌恶的人际间比较可以用Rubinstein整体风险厌恶度量来刻画;最后,在现货和期货服从正态分布的假设下,使用之前提出的条件,研究投资者风险厌恶程度对于其持有的最优套期保值比率的影响.     

基于Buck变换器的光伏发电系统MPPT 控制

研究由单个风险中性的供应商与多个竞争的损失厌恶零售商组成的两阶段供应链，在回购契约中考察竞争和零售商的损失厌恶态度对其最优订购决策和整个供应链协调性的影响.应用博弈论的方法，证明了该供应链博弈存在唯一的纯策略Nash均衡，而且竞争使得零售商的总订购量上升，而损失规避使得总订购量下降.竞争的存在削弱了损失厌恶效应对整个供应链协调性的影响.研究还发现，零售商的最优订购量随供应商的批发价增大而增大，随回购价格的增大而减少，并且在一定条件下回购契约可以使得供应链达到协调.     

基于外部融资的风险厌恶零售商的订货策略研究

选取资金不足风险厌恶的零售商为研究对象，在零售商选取银行贷款的融资模式下假定市场需求是随机的， 应用CVaR风险准则计算零售商的最优订货量,并与风险中性时零售商的最优订货量进行对比, 得出在银行贷款融资方式下, 风险厌恶的零售商的订货量小于风险中性的最优订货量，并进一步分析出现这种结果的原因.对全文得到的结论进行总结，指出文中得到的理念结果可为供应链企业提供决策的参考依据，并进一步指出未来的研究方向．     

代理人在职消费对动态多任务激励契约的影响

将代理人的在职消费行为引入到动态多任务委托代理框架中,构造了代理人在职消费行为下的两阶段多任务模型,分析了代理人在职消费行为对动态多任务激励契约的影响.研究结果表明：一是任务为两阶段时,无论代理人有无在职消费行为,代理人的努力程度随着时间均呈上升趋势,这就表明当委托人在设计契约时,如果委托人期望代理人在第一阶段的努力水平不低于第二阶段的努力水平,就需要适当提高第一阶段的业绩薪酬系数;二是代理人在职消费自利行为并不一定会提高自身的努力程度,需要依据在职消费行为对绩效的影响情形来具体分析;三是在两阶段内,代理人存在在职消费时,委托人可适当降低业绩薪酬系数.     

风险态度对寿险需求影响研究

风险态度在保险的消费决策中往往有着重要的影响。本文分别从消费者的死亡效用函数和存活效用函数两方面,度量和分析在需求类型确定情况下,风险态度和风险类型对寿险购买数量的影响。研究表明,消费者的风险态度对寿险的购买量没有影响。     

机构投资者的最优变现策略

在投资、变现等大宗交易过程中,资产交易价格与交易策略密切相关,因此,交易的完成过程需要很高的技巧.文章讨论了机构投资者的最优变现策略问题,假设证券价格服从几何布朗运动,以均值方差效用为目标函数,得到了最优变现策略所满足的二阶微分方程,并由差分法得到其数值解.最后,由参数的敏感性分析知:最优变现策略与瞬时冲击、市场波动率及风险厌恶系数等参数有关,但与永久冲击无关,且最优变现策略对市场波动率和瞬时冲击的变化较敏感.     

杂草防治中的经济阈值及其对不确定性的反应

本文研究了杂草防治中的不确定性对经济阈值/关键密度模型的影响,讨论了不确定性的两个主要来源:潜在的杂草密度及作物损失函数的形式;讨论了决定一种作物中杂草是否要进行防治的一系列决策原则,包括最大纯收益原则、最大最小收益原则及平均风险分析法。并以麦田中的野燕麦为例说明了各决策原则是如何作为经济阈值的。如果有风险厌恶,则杂草密度及损失函数的不确定性可使杂草的防治为最优的决策与具体的杂草阈值密度无关的可能性增大。     

新疆牧民风险意识的调查研究

在我国现代农村已进入了风险社会,人们对待风险的态度即风险意识将会影响人们的决策行为和行动后果,并进而对经济和社会的发展、外部政策机制的实施等产生促进或阻碍作用.通过对新疆牧区牧民的调查研究,实证分析了新疆牧区牧民的风险意识,并对新疆牧区牧民风险意识的影响因素进行了量化分析.研究结果表明,新疆牧民具有明显的风险厌恶特征,缺乏一定的合作意识和冒险精神,生产经营行为更倾向于短期行为和追求稳定,并对政府表现出一定的依赖性;此外,新疆牧民的风险意识受生活方式和文化程度的影响较大.     

基于风险的云计算环境用户效用分析

通过分析云计算环境中资源分配和用户任务请求的过程，提出了云计算环境中的用户效用函数，并引入风险对云计算服务和资源由于被非授权访问造成的损失进行量化，得出了基于风险的用户期望效用函数.最后，通过仿真实验论证了任务执行数与用户需求，时间，费用和用户效用之间的关系.从仿真实验可以看出，用户的一次提交的任务数存在一个理想值，在这个理想值附近，其用户效用最好.     

Risk preferences and the low-carbon agricultural technology adoption: Evidence from rice production in China

Climate change which is mainly caused by carbon emissions is a global problem affecting the economic development and well-being of human society. Low-carbon agriculture is of particular significance in slowing down global warming and reaching the goal of “carbon peak and carbon neutrality”. Therefore, taking straw incorporation as an example, this paper aims to investigate the impact of risk preferences on farmers’ low-carbon agricultural technology (LCAT) adoption. Based on a two-phase micro-survey data of 1 038 rice farmers in Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Hunan provinces, this paper uses experimental economics methods to measure farmers’ risk aversion and loss aversion to obtain the real risk preferences information of the farmers. We also explore the data to examine the actual LCAT adoption behavior of farmers. The results revealed that both risk aversion and loss aversion significantly inhibit farmers’ LCAT adoption: more risk-averse or more loss-averse farmers are less likely to adopt LCAT. It is further found that crop insurance, farm scale and governmental regulations can alleviate the negative impact of risk aversion and loss aversion on farmers’ LCAT adoption. Therefore, we propose that local governments need to promote low-carbon agricultural development by propagating the benefits of LCAT, extending crop insurance, promoting appropriate scale operations, and strengthening governmental regulations to promote farmers’ LCAT adoption.     

非完备市场欧式期权无差别定价研究

研究不完备市场中最大化期望消费效用准则下的最优消费/投资决策及期权定价问题.在标的资产价格服从几何均值回复变化的假设下,利用随机动态规划理论及消费效用无差别定价原理得到了最优消费/投资策略以及标的资产不可交易的欧式期权价格所满足的偏微分方程.给出了数值算例,结果表明投资者的风险厌恶态度会降低期权的效用价格,而标的资产的均值回复特性使得期权价格随时间的变化规律受控于标的资产均衡价格水平,分情况可表现出单调递增和单调递减的2种不同变化趋势.     

Uncertainty aversion and farmers’ innovative seed adoption: Evidence from a field experiment in rural China

Based on the microdata of 705 wheat farmers in the Loess Plateau, this study empirically analyzes the impact of uncertainty on farmers’ adoption of innovative seeds using a field experiment. The results indicate that farmers are generally ambiguity-averse and risk-averse. In addition, farmers with higher ambiguity aversion and risk aversion are less likely to adopt innovative wheat seeds, where their risk aversion plays a dominant role. Enhancing information access will alleviate the negative influence of ambiguity aversion on farmers’ adoption of innovative seeds, and interlinked insurance and credit contracts will be beneficial to ease the adverse effect of risk aversion on the adoption of innovative wheat seeds. Meanwhile, heterogeneity analysis reveals that the inhibitory effects of ambiguity aversion and risk aversion on innovative seed adoption are more significant among farmers with lower education and household income. The government can establish both ex-ante and ex-post relevant guarantee mechanisms to help farmers preferably cope with various uncertainties in the production process, remitting farmers’ ambiguity aversion and risk aversion to enhance new agricultural technology adoption rates.     

Understanding overbidding: using the neural circuitry of reward to design economic auctions

We take advantage of our knowledge of the neural circuitry of reward to investigate a puzzling economic phenomenon: Why do people overbid in auctions? Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we observed that the social competition inherent in an auction results in a more pronounced blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) response to loss in the striatum, with greater overbidding correlated with the magnitude of this response. Leveraging these neuroimaging results, we design a behavioral experiment that demonstrates that framing an experimental auction to emphasize loss increases overbidding. These results highlight a role for the contemplation of loss in understanding the tendency to bid "too high." Current economic theories suggest overbidding may result from either "joy of winning" or risk aversion. By combining neuroeconomic and behavioral economic techniques, we find that another factor, namely loss contemplation in a social context, may mediate overbidding in auctions.     

The neural basis of loss aversion in decision-making under risk

People typically exhibit greater sensitivity to losses than to equivalent gains when making decisions. We investigated neural correlates of loss aversion while individuals decided whether to accept or reject gambles that offered a 50/50 chance of gaining or losing money. A broad set of areas (including midbrain dopaminergic regions and their targets) showed increasing activity as potential gains increased. Potential losses were represented by decreasing activity in several of these same gain-sensitive areas. Finally, individual differences in behavioral loss aversion were predicted by a measure of neural loss aversion in several regions, including the ventral striatum and prefrontal cortex.     

过度自信、风险厌恶与我国上市公司经理薪酬激励

经理风险厌恶会增加股东使用业绩薪酬激励的成本，然而通过对我国上市公司高管的经验研究发现，如果经理过度自信，则会减弱风险厌恶带来的负面影响，表现为其薪酬中的报酬业绩敏感度更高，且其与风险之间的负相关关系减弱。同时研究还发现，非系统风险所占总风险比重较大的公司，相比系统风险所占比重较大的公司，会给予过度自信的高管更高的报酬业绩敏感度，这意味着高管的过度自信主要源于其对公司非系统风险认知的偏差。     

Farmers' risk preference and fertilizer use

This study examines the role of farmers' risk attitudes toward fertilizer use in cotton production in China. Contradicting previous studies, this paper theoretically shows that the relationship between farmers' risk aversion and fertilizer use is not always monotonic. Field survey data were collected to test this relationship using the Cobb–Douglas production function. Results suggest that when the elasticity of fertilizer use and the probability of achieving the desired effects from fertilizer use are high, risk-averse farmers apply more fertilizer than risk-taking farmers. Conversely, when the elasticity of fertilizer use and the probability of achieving the desired effects are low, risk-taking farmers apply more fertilizer than risk-neutral or risk-averse farmers.     

The right and the good: distributive justice and neural encoding of equity and efficiency

Distributive justice concerns how individuals and societies distribute benefits and burdens in a just or moral manner. We combined distribution choices with functional magnetic resonance imaging to investigate the central problem of distributive justice: the trade-off between equity and efficiency. We found that the putamen responds to efficiency, whereas the insula encodes inequity, and the caudate/septal subgenual region encodes a unified measure of efficiency and inequity (utility). Notably, individual differences in inequity aversion correlate with activity in inequity and utility regions. Against utilitarianism, our results support the deontological intuition that a sense of fairness is fundamental to distributive justice but, as suggested by moral sentimentalists, is rooted in emotional processing. More generally, emotional responses related to norm violations may underlie individual differences in equity considerations and adherence to ethical rules.     

枣疯病入侵新疆的风险分析

[目的]枣疯病是我国枣树的严重病害之一,依据预防为主的基本原则进行综合评估,得出枣疯病传入新疆的风险等级,并提出相应的管理对策.[方法]通过定性因素和定量指标体系相结合的方法对枣疯病进行风险评估.[结果]枣疯病的危险性综合评价值为2.69,属于特别危险性林业有害生物.一旦传入流行将给新疆枣产业发展带来很大的经济损失.[结论]加强进境检疫管理是目前抵御其传入风险的有效措施.此外,还应加强枣园管理,增强树势,开展综合防治.