Glaciers dominate eustatic sea-level rise in the 21st century

Ice loss to the sea currently accounts for virtually all of the sea-level rise that is not attributable to ocean warming, and about 60% of the ice loss is from glaciers and ice caps rather than from the two ice sheets. The contribution of these smaller glaciers has accelerated over the past decade, in part due to marked thinning and retreat of marine-terminating glaciers associated with a dynamic instability that is generally not considered in mass-balance and climate modeling. This acceleration of glacier melt may cause 0.1 to 0.25 meter of additional sea-level rise by 2100.     

A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise

A semi-empirical relation is presented that connects global sea-level rise to global mean surface temperature. It is proposed that, for time scales relevant to anthropogenic warming, the rate of sea-level rise is roughly proportional to the magnitude of warming above the temperatures of the pre-Industrial Age. This holds to good approximation for temperature and sea-level changes during the 20th century, with a proportionality constant of 3.4 millimeters/year per degrees C. When applied to future warming scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this relationship results in a projected sea-level rise in 2100 of 0.5 to 1.4 meters above the 1990 level.     

Paleoclimatic evidence for future ice-sheet instability and rapid sea-level rise

Sea-level rise from melting of polar ice sheets is one of the largest potential threats of future climate change. Polar warming by the year 2100 may reach levels similar to those of 130,000 to 127,000 years ago that were associated with sea levels several meters above modern levels; both the Greenland Ice Sheet and portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet may be vulnerable. The record of past ice-sheet melting indicates that the rate of future melting and related sea-level rise could be faster than widely thought.     

Simulating Arctic climate warmth and icefield retreat in the last interglaciation

In the future, Arctic warming and the melting of polar glaciers will be considerable, but the magnitude of both is uncertain. We used a global climate model, a dynamic ice sheet model, and paleoclimatic data to evaluate Northern Hemisphere high-latitude warming and its impact on Arctic icefields during the Last Interglaciation. Our simulated climate matches paleoclimatic observations of past warming, and the combination of physically based climate and ice-sheet modeling with ice-core constraints indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet and other circum-Arctic ice fields likely contributed 2.2 to 3.4 meters of sea-level rise during the Last Interglaciation.     

Effect of sedimentation on ice-sheet grounding-line stability

Sedimentation filling space beneath ice shelves helps to stabilize ice sheets against grounding-line retreat in response to a rise in relative sea level of at least several meters. Recent Antarctic changes thus cannot be attributed to sea-level rise, strengthening earlier interpretations that warming has driven ice-sheet mass loss. Large sea-level rise, such as the approximately 100-meter rise at the end of the last ice age, may overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation, but smaller sea-level changes are unlikely to have synchronized the behavior of ice sheets in the past.     

A chronology of Paleozoic sea-level changes

Sea levels have been determined for most of the Paleozoic Era (542 to 251 million years ago), but an integrated history of sea levels has remained unrealized. We reconstructed a history of sea-level fluctuations for the entire Paleozoic by using stratigraphic sections from pericratonic and cratonic basins. Evaluation of the timing and amplitude of individual sea-level events reveals that the magnitude of change is the most problematic to estimate accurately. The long-term sea level shows a gradual rise through the Cambrian, reaching a zenith in the Late Ordovician, then a short-lived but prominent withdrawal in response to Hirnantian glaciation. Subsequent but decreasingly substantial eustatic highs occurred in the mid-Silurian, near the Middle/Late Devonian boundary, and in the latest Carboniferous. Eustatic lows are recorded in the early Devonian, near the Mississippian/Pennsylvanian boundary, and in the Late Permian. One hundred and seventy-two eustatic events are documented for the Paleozoic, varying in magnitude from a few tens of meters to approximately 125 meters.     

East pacific rise crest: a near-bottom geophysical profile

A deep-towed magnetometer profile made across the East Pacific Rise crest shows many anomalies with about 1000-gamma amplitudes and 500-meter wavelengths and has larger amplitude changes corresponding to magnetic field reversals. This profile across contacts between normal and reversely magnetized crustal blocks is interpreted to place an upper limit of 4700 years on the time required for field reversals and an upper limit of 280 meters on the width of the intrusion center at the rise crest. This intrusion center may occasionally shift several kilometers laterally with respect to the rise axis. The magnetometer records are compatible with the hypothesis that the magnetic field has undergone many fluctuations of short period and small intensity in the past 2 million years. Sediment accumulation increases from less than 2 meters at the rise crest axis to about 20 meters at the western end and 10 meters at the eastern end of the profile. This increase in accutmiulation appears to be the result of ocean-floor spreading.     

Ice-sheet and sea-level changes

Future sea-level rise is an important issue related to the continuing buildup of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with the potential to raise sea level approximately 70 meters if completely melted, dominate uncertainties in projected sea-level change. Freshwater fluxes from these ice sheets also may affect oceanic circulation, contributing to climate change. Observational and modeling advances have reduced many uncertainties related to ice-sheet behavior, but recently detected, rapid ice-marginal changes contributing to sea-level rise may indicate greater ice-sheet sensitivity to warming than previously considered.     

Long-term sea-level fluctuations driven by ocean basin dynamics

Earth's long-term sea-level history is characterized by widespread continental flooding in the Cretaceous period (approximately 145 to 65 million years ago), followed by gradual regression of inland seas. However, published estimates of the Late Cretaceous sea-level high differ by half an order of magnitude, from approximately 40 to approximately 250 meters above the present level. The low estimate is based on the stratigraphy of the New Jersey margin. By assimilating marine geophysical data into reconstructions of ancient ocean basins, we model a Late Cretaceous sea level that is 170 (85 to 270) meters higher than it is today. We use a mantle convection model to suggest that New Jersey subsided by 105 to 180 meters in the past 70 million years because of North America's westward passage over the subducted Farallon plate. This mechanism reconciles New Jersey margin-based sea-level estimates with ocean basin reconstructions.     

Meltwater pulse 1A from Antarctica as a trigger of the Bølling-Allerød warm interval

Meltwater pulse 1A (mwp-1A) was a prominent feature of the last deglaciation, which led to a sea-level rise of approximately 20 meters in less than 500 years. Concurrent with mwp-1A was the onset of the B?lling-Aller?d interstadial event (14,600 years before the present), which marked the termination of the last glacial period. Previous studies have been unable to reconcile a warm Northern Hemisphere with mwp-1A originating from the Laurentide or Fennoscandian ice sheets. With the use of a climate model of intermediate complexity, we demonstrate that with mwp-1A originating from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, consistent with recent sea-level fingerprinting inferences, the strength of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation increases, thereby warming the North Atlantic region and providing an explanation for the onset of the B?lling-Aller?d warm interval. The established mode of active NADW formation is then able to respond to subsequent freshwater forcing from the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets, setting the stage for the Younger Dryas cold period.