Location matters: A spatial econometric analysis of regional resilience in the European Union

The aim of this study is to empirically examine regional resilience by assessing economic growth patterns in two distinct groups of regions across the European Union in the aftermath of the 2008 economic and financial crisis. In an effort to consider the regions as interconnected economic areas and account for spillover effects, the model incorporates complex spatial effects that consider both spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence. The analysis follows a step‐wise approach. First, spatial heterogeneity is assessed by employing Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, which identifies two distinct spatial regimes, a core and a periphery, based on their initial level of economic development. A Spatial Durbin Model is then employed to estimate the determinants of regional resilience and growth in both regimes, including potential spillover effects. Results indicate that while both spatial regimes experience processes of economic convergence, recent determinants of growth, as well as spillover dynamics, differ across the two. In the core regime, better institutions, higher shares of investment, and an economy specialized in higher value‐added sectors significantly spur domestic growth, with investment also inducing positive spillover effects to neighbouring regions. In the peripheral regime, low shares of lower‐secondary educational attainment and high shares of tertiary educational attainment have a significant positive effect on domestic growth, with higher shares of tertiary educational attainment also inducing positive spillover effects. Moreover, technological readiness is also identified as an important factor in the peripheral regime with positive spillover effects. Upon the bedrock of these findings, initial policy proposals are offered.     

Regional Growth Dynamics in the Service Sector: The Determinants of Employment Change in UK Regions, 1971–2005

There is a need to better understand the dynamics relating to the evolving economic structure of regions, in particular factors concerning deindustrialisation and the growth of services. In order to unpick the dynamics relating to contemporary regional evolution, this paper examines regional employment in the UK's services sectors from 1971 to 2005. The analysis utilises the statistical technique of multi‐factor partitioning to examine the evolutionary dynamics of employment change in the UK service sector. Overall, differing growth trajectories in services employment across regions appear to be the result of the different underlying industrial structures observed within the regions themselves. The findings indicate that the industrial structure of a region has a significant influence on employment change in services, with related variety being of greater consequence than specialisation. This suggests that diversity, or urbanisation, effects have a greater influence than specialisation effects on “lighter” industries than “heavier” industries. Spatio‐temporal variations within the development of services are evident in the analysis, and there is evidence of convergence across the regions for all sub‐sectors examined. It concludes that in an increasingly services‐dominated economy, diversity and related variety have some weight in explaining regional development paths.     

中国"以工补农"政策的地区适用性初探

当前中国经济发展总体上已经进入了工业化中期阶段,具备了工业反哺农业的条件和能力。但并不意味着全国各个地区都进入了工业化中期阶段,统一的"以工补农"模式和政策在全国各个地区也不一定都适用。运用钱纳里和赛尔昆等设计的标准模型,分析了2005年中国不同地区的经济发展水平。结果表明:仍有皖、豫、湘、桂、琼、黔、滇、藏、甘九省区与全国进入工业化中期阶段的总体判断不符;而京、津、沪、苏、浙五省市则明显超越全国平均水平,已基本进入大规模反哺期。需要针对区域的工业化进程分类研究其工农关系和"以工补农"政策措施。因此,判断中国区域工业化进程发展阶段,研究"以工补农"政策的地区适用性和对策,将为中国"以工补农"政策的科学制定提供有益的参考。     

Behind the Pan‐European Convergence Path: The Role of Innovation,Specialisation and Socio‐economic Factors

The paper analyses the determinants of regional disparities in per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and their evolution over time in the enlarged European Union (EU). With reference to the literature it groups EU regions on the basis of three different factors—specialisation, socio‐economic features, and innovation. It then analyses regional disparities in per capita GDP (EU‐relative and country‐relative) across groups over 2004–2011 using both non‐parametric tools and traditional regression analysis with spatial effects. The paper finds that EU‐wide convergence actually conceals growing divergence across old member regions and within new members. Coming to the factors that lie at the heart of regional disparities, country factors lose importance for newcomers but become more important for older members, notwithstanding longstanding integration. Socio‐economic factors and innovation instead become increasingly important for all areas, socio‐economic factors lying at the heart of within‐country differences and innovation more of those between regions. Finally, specialisation appears to have a lower explanatory power.     

Different Institutions,Distinctive Trajectories? Revisiting Maritime Industrial Development Areas with Cases on China's Liaoning Coast

Maritime industrial development areas (MIDAs) are spatial tools designed to accelerate economic growth in backwards coastal areas and thus alleviate regional disparities, and they have widely expanded in both developed and developing countries over the past sixty years. This paper reviews the global development of MIDAs in different historical periods and compares them with cases on China's Liaoning coast in terms of their structure, location, administration, national political‐economic climate and theoretical justification. The results indicate that although those countries have different institutional environments they seemingly once took the same path in their specific stages of development. However, the experiences of developed countries and other developing ones and the current dilemma of MIDAs in coastal Liaoning together demonstrate that MIDAs cannot achieve the policy targets anticipated by decision makers, especially during the economic transitions of China. This finding cautions backwards countries and their lagging areas, such as northeastern China, that the traditional pattern tried by the first developed countries may not be appropriate when the development tool (e.g., MIDAs) is examined in both the framework of international comparison and the socioeconomic setting of a specific country.     

The elusive quest for balanced regional growth from Barlow to Brexit: Lessons from partitioning regional employment growth in Great Britain

The British Government’s economic strategy for post‐Brexit Britain of achieving balanced regional growth by “driving growth across the whole country” echoes the objectives set by the Barlow Report of 1940. The regional policies that followed the Barlow Report were heavily influenced by papers written for the Commission by G D A (later Sir Donald) MacDougall. The first of these papers was included as an appendix to the report itself and introduced the shift‐share methodology to the analysis of regional employment growth, and subsequently shown to be flawed. The second paper considered the urban hierarchy and growth but was never fully developed. Consequently post‐war regional policy focussed on the contribution of industrial structure to employment growth without fully taking into account the urban hierarchy or regional locations of that employment. This article replaces the flawed shift‐share methodology with multifactor partitioning (MFP) and applies it to regional employment growth for the period 1971‐2012, a span of special interest because it largely coincides with British membership of the European Union (EU). The deficiencies in the second paper are addressed by introducing allometry to measure the employment growth of each region relative to that of Great Britain and then regression analysis to relate the allometries to distance from London. The results of the two sets of analyses highlight the need for a multiple‐factor, comprehensive, and integrated approach to regional policy and provide a benchmark against which to gauge the success of Britain's post‐Brexit policy of driving future growth across the whole country.     

Regional Impacts of Foreign Trade in China, 1984–1989

An issue of heated debate in China is whether the current economic reforms would lead to greater regional inequalities. In this paper one aspect of the reforms, the open-door policy, is put into focus. Specifically, the analysis investigates how the effect of foreign trade on economic development differs across regions, and whether these regional variations have changed from 1984 to 1989. Based upon the expansion method, models that resolve both the spatial and temporal variations of a relationship are constructed and estimated. The results indicate that foreign trade benefits core provinces and major industrial regions more than other parts of China, but that these differences have diminished in 1989. These findings may be interpreted as evidence of some diffusion of growth from more developed to less developed regions. On the other hand, regional linkages and the mechanisms of diffusion are not well understood and they deserve more attention and research.     

The role of national settings in the economic resilience of regions—Evidence from recessionary shocks in Europe from 1990 to 2014

This paper focuses on the particular role of the national setting for the economic resilience of regions during the resistance and recovery phase. Our empirical set-up introduces a spatial hierarchy of 249 NUTS-2 regions nested in 22 European countries while it includes numerous recessionary shocks from 1990 to 2014. Our results suggest that the impact of the national setting is strongest during the resistance phase when the national level accounts for up to 44.9% of the variance in regional GDP development. During recovery, however, the national share decreases but still amounts to no less than 22.0%. Apart from the direct effects that originate from, for example, regulatory density and fiscal policy measures, the national impact takes the form of cross-level moderation effects. These indirect effects indicate that the regional patterns of resilience are additionally shaped by the inter-linkages of country-specific institutional factors and regional determinants. Taking all this into account, regional economic resilience is anything but just a matter of regional capacities.     

Regional Indexes of Leading Indicators: An Evaluation Of Forecasting Performance

ABSTRACT Indexes of leading indicators are used to forecast short-run changes in economic activity in many states and metropolitan areas. This article examines the forecasting performance of a sample of such regional indexes over several business cycles. Although these indexes vary across regions, the results show that they do provide forecasts of recessions and recoveries and also exhibit some potential for forecasting quantitative changes in regional employment.     

What matters for lagging regions? The role of self-employment and industrial diversity in distressed areas

Previous research suggests that having more self-employed or entrepreneurs can contribute to higher levels of economic growth in distressed areas. Additionally, self-employment in certain industries may be more beneficial to growth. Other research has linked industrial diversity to entrepreneurship and regional growth, especially in urban areas. However, the relationship between industrial diversity, self-employment, and growth in lagging or distressed regions is less clear. To examine these linkages in distressed areas, we first identify a group of distressed counties based on historic data. Then, using detailed industry-level self-employment data, we appraise whether having more self-employed from certain industries is associated with regional growth. We also analyze the relationship between industrial diversity and overall growth and the propensity to be self-employed. The results suggest that having more self-employment overall and in some key industries is associated with more employment growth in distressed counties. We also find that the relationship between economic diversity and self-employment varies by industry and region.     

Creative Industries and Regional Productivity Growth in the Developing Economy: Evidence from Indonesia

This paper examines the degree to which creative industries stimulate regional productivity growth in a developing country, Indonesia. The Indonesian government promotes long‐established “traditional” craft businesses as creative industries, but they pay less attention to new knowledge creation and focus on highlighting heritage values as selling points. Our findings show that the “real” creative industries are still scarce and found mostly in fairly advanced urban regions. These industries are more likely to be an indicator than a driver of regional economic development. Meanwhile, those traditional businesses are much larger than creative industries and potentially contribute to regional productivity through consumption activities, thereby requiring different policy strategies.     

Do Entrepreneurs Enhance Economic Growth in Lagging Regions?

Because support for entrepreneurship is often a core part of economic development strategies, we investigate whether it is important for growth in lagging, rural U.S. regions by focusing on Appalachia. While entrepreneurship has the advantage of being endogenous and “home grown,” previous research suggests that remote rural regions may lack the agglomeration economies to benefit greatly from entrepreneurship. Using county‐level data, we explore the relationship between entrepreneurship and economic growth, employing self‐employment and small business data as proxies for entrepreneurship. We look at the results for the Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC) region, using its immediate Appalachian neighbors outside the ARC region as a control group. Moreover, we also account for self‐sorting by proprietors to locate in expanding regions. Despite strong barriers to growth in Appalachia, our empirical results suggest that self‐employment is positively associated with employment and income growth, and that efforts to promote entrepreneurial capacity may be among the few economic development strategies with positive payoffs in remote regions.     

Modelling Local and Regional Economic Development in Turkey: A “Curate's Egg”

This paper explores and unpacks the nature of the processes shaping regional economic growth in Turkey using an econometric modelling strategy. Existing empirical research in this field has focussed on regions in economically advanced and technologically innovative economies. As a consequence, the broader picture of the dynamics of regional development in less developed countries, particularly its social and political origins and the overall changes in regional inequality, has remained elusive and less clear. In this study, a set of econometric models is developed to explore the validity of a range of theoretical propositions in explaining the trajectories of regional economic change in Turkey between 2004 and 2008. Growth is calibrated in terms of employment and changing rates of unemployment in the chosen time period in the 81 provinces of Turkey. The results of the study explain that implications of the current local and regional economic development theories are a “Curate's Egg”—good in parts—because these theories are only partially relevant in the Turkish context.     

Technology,Industrial Restructuring,and Regional Development

ABSTRACT This paper presents a contemporary survey and synthesis of research on the regional dimensions of technology and competitiveness and explores ways in which technological change has influenced industrial restructuring in U.S. regions. Neoclassical models of regional growth are judged to be seriously wanting in their treatment of technological change. Industrial organization theories such as product/profit cycles, best-practice firms, and flexible specialization have proven to be more illuminating. However, the task remains to integrate technology as a core element in a geography of production and regional economic change that includes both global strategic decision-making of companies and the viability of plants in particular regional settings. Although the federal government as sponsor and procurer of technology has contributed significantly to regional industrial restructuring, the prospects for state and local governments to facilitate technological change appear to be very limited.     

Who leads regional industrial dynamics? “New industry creators” in Chinese regions

Recent evolutionary economic geography studies have argued that regional diversification emerges as a path‐dependent process, as regions often branch into industries that are related to its industrial structure. However, it is less clear who are creating new industries and under what regional conditions. This research seeks to fill this gap and identify “new industry creators” in regional industrial diversification. We differentiate two types of new industry formation—path‐breaking and path‐dependent—and examine whether some new industry creators are more path‐breaking than others, by incorporating two factors that have been largely overlooked in recent literature on technological relatedness—firm heterogeneity and regional institutions. Based on a firm‐level data set of China’s manufacturing industries, this paper shows that path‐breaking and path‐dependence coexist. Empirical results confirm that firm heterogeneity and regional institutions not only affect the firms’ capabilities in creating new industries, but also encourage/discourage firms to be adventurous and path‐breaking. This research implies that lagging regions can catch up with developed regions by coordinating regional resources and adjusting local institutional arrangements to attract more path‐breaking firms.     

Spatial Industrial Dynamics in Sweden: Urban Growth Industries

In this paper two basic theories within spatial industrial dynamics—the filtering-down theory and the spatial product cycle theory—are used to explain processes of spatial decentralization and centralization of economic activities. In particular, a case is made for the idea that employment decentralization should be expected not only for growing and maturing manufacturing industries but also for growing and maturing service industries. Based upon this theoretical framework the empirical part of the paper analysis the spatial behavior during the period 1980 to 1993 of the employment in a group of 19 industries in Sweden—the so-called urban growth industries—with an expected high potential for employment decentralization. Most of the industries exhibited the expected pattern of employment decentralization with the larger medium-sized regions as the main winners. A shift-share analysis shows that the overall magnitudes of the competitive shift components are rather small and that, hence, Sweden during the period 1980–1993 did not experience a drastic change in the spatial distribution of its urban growth industries.     

The Dynamic Effects of Entrepreneurship on Regional Economic Growth: Evidence from Canada

Facilitating entrepreneurship to address regional income disparity continues to be a major concern of policy makers across the globe. This study explores the temporal pattern of income disparity for Canadian provinces in two estimation steps. First, an econometric growth regression model is applied to identify the impact of entrepreneurship on regional economic growth. The estimation results suggest that entrepreneurship, measured in terms of the self‐employment rate, plays a pivotal role in determining regional development in Canada. Second, a dynamic vector autoregression model is employed to simulate long‐run regional growth effects that result from policy shocks affecting entrepreneurship. Compared to other growth drivers, entrepreneurship is found to have more pronounced and long‐term stimulative effects on regional development for the period of 1987–2007.     

Shift‐Share Analysis and Changes in Japanese Manufacturing Employment

Shift‐share analysis is used to examine the role of spatial structure on changes in regional manufacturing employment, in contrast to the traditional focus of shift‐share studies on the role of industrial structure. It is argued that changes in a region's space‐economy can be understood not only in terms of the economic subdivisions of the region but also in terms of the contribution of its spatial subdivisions. The latter is illustrated by means of a case study of the contribution of different types of local area to changes in regional manufacturing employment in Japan. Each region was subdivided into four types of local area based on population density. The analysis covered the period from 1981 to 1995, a time of major transformation in Japan's space‐economy. The shift‐share model was also used to estimate the impact of local area output and productivity on changes in regional employment. In general, the results show that there was a progressive underdevelopment of the core regions, associated with falling output and productivity. The country's peripheral regions were characterized by development, associated with rising output and productivity. Atthe local scale, however, the picture is far more complex. Types of local area contributed to regional employment change in very different ways, with respect to both time, region, and output/productivity. The contribution of local spatial structure to the regional space‐economy of Japan is fundamentally fragmented and uneven.     

New Approaches to Spatial Economics

This paper looks at the linkages between three recent developments in spatial economics that in combination have changed the way that economic growth is viewed. These new approaches are that of the New Growth Theory, the measurement of geographical economic convergence, and the role of infrastructure in stimulating economic growth. In combination these developments may combine to provide a different perspective on why regions often grow at differential rates,ways of measuring these differences, and possible policy interventions tomanipulate geographical variations in the growth process. The paper argues, however, that these concepts, while they may offer new insights, are nevertheless unlikely to provide a complete picture of why spatial economic divergence is widespread nor a set of policy instruments that can be simplydeployed to ameliorate such discrepancies.