A Simulative Method of Investment Decision in Real Estate Development

This paper has simulated major risk factors and estimation indexes which influence on project investment in real estate development. It confirms the scope of risk factors by reaching it's reliability, The problems are resolved in obtaining values of factors and it's probabilistic distributing;the limitation is over come in estimating the income of investment by a point-estimation.An impersonal and reliable method of investment decision is provided in real estate development, and the result is ideal in practive test.     

Analysis on Location Selection for Real Estate Development Based on Set Theory

In order to increase the early decision-making accuracy of the real estate development and lower the overall risk of real estate investment, this paper explored the locations for projects of real estate development in the aspects of theoretical methods and technical levels. The evaluation system of housing project sites was established. It constructed the set model for real estate development projects and studied the concrete operation of the model in practice with a prac- tical example with the rough set theory. The test results showed that the method can reduce impacts from the experience and subjective awareness of decision-makers and increase the accuracy of location decisions.     

Real Option Method in Real Estate Investment Decision

Through analysis of basic assumptions and limitations of the conventional real estate investment decision method, in this paper, its unconformity to the investment environment, which includes a great number of uncertain elements, is pointed out. By analyzing the real option and the price formula, the pattern of real option in real estate investment decision is put forward and this breaks through the limitations of the conventional investment decision method and makes the decision scientifically and reasonably, moreover, it has some directive significance to investment administration work of real estate corporation.     

Application of Flow Analysis to Risk Management of Land Investment

Combined with the development flow of real estate project,firstly a flow analysis is put forward for land investment risk identification of real estate projects,then by method of list analysis and method of expectancy computing to determine the risk level and the gain and loss of expectancy of land investment.Based on the relation and flow chart of land investment risk,the risk intensity of land investment is computed,in order to achieve an objective,effective and scientific dynamic management of land investment risk.     

The Problem of Real Option and Its Frontier Commentary

The method of real option has already become an important tool in the fields of enterprises value evaluation, company finance, strategy investment management, investment decision, finance analysis, corporation merger and acquisition and so on. But there is a lot of problems in both theory and practical application for the method of real option. This article will analyze the research frontier problem of real option and indicate the further research direction.     

Liquidity Risk Management of the Open-end Securities Investment Fund

The main object of this paper is to research the liquidity risk management of the open-end securities investment fund in line with the real position of China's securities market and investment regulation of the open-end securities investment fund.So the paper concentrates on discussing the redemption forecasting methods,stock liquidity assessment system,portfolio selection in line with the redemption forecast,and financing from the other institution,which are the main parts of liquidity risk management of the open-end securities investment fund.     

Model of Real Estate Portfolio Investment Based on the Least Risk

The high-speed development demands new real estate investment theory. Using the experiences of the Western developed countries for reference in property investment and modern portfolio investment theory, the paper introduces the conception of systematic and unsystematic risk with the centre of risk and profit. Consequently, the model of real estate base on least risk and anticipated profit is studied in the discussion of its concerned hypothesis and determining the concerned parameters. With living example analysis, we reach the conclusion that portfolio investment risk is smaller than single investment if the investor adjusts the tactics of portfolio investment.     

The Real Option Method of Real Estate Exploitation Evaluation

Real estate exploitations have high risk and its exploitation environment is quite uncertain. The traditional investment value methods, such as the net present value and discount cash flow methods, usually undervalue the real estate value. In this paper the real option pricing theories and methods are applied to discuss real estate investment value under uncertainty. This method provides a new approach for real estate items.     

Analysis of Risk Factors of Project Cost Base on the Monte-Carlo Simulation

This paper combined the method of probability,mathematical statistics,and technology of computer with theory of Project cost risk management,based on the theory of initiative control and took the Crystal Ball as an assistant tool to analyze the risk of cost management in a certain project,verify the actual effect of the model when it is used to the practice,give some suggestions to evade risk in a certain degree and mend the existent decision model to improve the efficiency and precision of analysis of cost management risk.     

Option-game Analysis on the Investment Decision of Enterprise

In the analysis on the investment decision of enterprise under uncertainty, NPV is not applicable. From the view of the real option, uncertainty makes the monopoly enterprise delay the investment. This paper analyses the problem of investment decision under different assumptions in the option-game framework, taking the uncertainty and competition into account. Delay is not optimal for the non-monopoly enterprise. The symmetry and the information completeness of the enterprises will affect the investment strategic and equilibrium of the game.     

贝叶斯决策在规模养殖风险分析中的应用

随着经济的发展和消费者需求的增加,养殖业从传统的养殖模式逐步过渡到现代的规模养殖。养殖业技术不断进步,养殖规模不断壮大,这给养殖业的投资者带来了发展的机遇,但是同样也带来了一定的风险,怎么使得养殖企业的风险最小是当今研究的一个重点。文章首先对养殖业的风险类型以及产生的原因进行研究,然后提出规模养殖的贝叶斯决策模型,阐述模型的建立和运用过程,利用贝叶斯理论对于规模养殖存在的风险进行定性和定量的分析,进而运用一个决策案例来阐述贝叶斯模型决策的过程。案例的结果表明贝叶斯决策模型可以很好地解决决策风险问题,对于是否需要获取补充信息也做出了明确的判断,同时对于预测情形下的各种方案也做出了风险计算,从而直观地反映决策方案是否符合风险最小,收益最大原则。文中案例是规模养殖业决策风险中的一个问题,类似风险决策问题可以根据决策模型来解决。文章最后对各种风险问题提出决策建议,以期为养殖业的风险决策提供一个有效的方法。