Simulating site-specific impacts of climate change on soil erosion and surface hydrology in southern Loess Plateau of China

Proper spatial and temporal treatments of climate change scenarios projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs) are critical to accurate assessment of climatic impacts on natural resources and ecosystems. The objective of this study was to evaluate the site-specific impacts of climate change on soil erosion and surface hydrology at the Changwu station of Shaanxi, China using a new spatiotemporal downscaling method. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model and climate change scenarios projected by the U.K. Hadley Centre's GCM (HadCM3) under the A2, B2, and GGa emissions scenarios were used in this study. The monthly precipitation and temperature projections were downloaded for the periods of 1900–1999 and 2010–2039 for the grid box containing the Changwu station. Univariate transfer functions were derived by matching probability distributions between station-measured and GCM-projected monthly precipitation and temperature for the 1950–1999 period. The derived functions were used to spatially downscale the GCM monthly projections of 2010–2039 in the grid box to the Changwu station. The downscaled monthly data were further disaggregated to daily weather series using a stochastic weather generator (CLIGEN). The HadCM3 projected that average annual precipitation during 2010–2039 would increase by 4 to 18% at Changwu and that frequency and intensity of large storms would also increase. Under the conventional tillage, simulated percent increases during 2010–2039, compared with the present climate, would be 49–112% for runoff and 31–167% for soil loss. However, simulated soil losses under the conservation tillage during 2010–2039 would be reduced by 39–51% compared with those under the conventional tillage in the present climate. The considerable reduction in soil loss in the conservation tillage indicates the importance of adopting conservation tillage in the region to control soil erosion under climate change.     

Impact of climate change on soil erosion, runoff, and wheat productivity in central Oklahoma

The potential for global climate changes to increase the risk of soil erosion is clear, but the actual damage is not. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on soil erosion, surface runoff, and wheat productivity in central Oklahoma. Monthly projections were used from the Hadley Centre's general circulation model, HadCM3, using scenarios A2a, B2a, and GGa1 for the periods of 1950–1999 and 2070–2099. Projected changes in monthly precipitation and temperature distributions between the two periods were incorporated into daily weather series by means of a stochastic weather generator (CLIGEN) with its input parameters adjusted to each scenario. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was run for four climate scenarios including a recent historical climate and three tillage systems (conventional tillage, conservation tillage, and no-till). HadCM3-projected mean annual precipitation during 2070–2099 at El Reno, Oklahoma decreased by 13.6%, 7.2%, and 6.2% for A2a, B2a, and GGa1, respectively; and mean annual temperature increased by 5.7, 4.0, and 4.7 °C, respectively. Predicted average annual soil loss in the tillage systems other than no-till, compared with historical climate (1950–1999), increased by 18–30% for A2a, remained similar for B2a, and increased by 67–82% for GGa1. Predicted soil loss in no-till did not increase in the three scenarios. Predicted mean annual runoff in all three tillage systems increased by 16–25% for A2a, remained similar for B2a, and increased by 6–19% for GGa1. The greater increases in soil loss and runoff in GGa1 were attributed to greater variability in monthly precipitation as projected by HadCM3. The increased variability led to increased frequency of large storms. Small changes in wheat yield, which ranged from a 5% decrease in B2a to a 5% increase in GGa1, were because the adverse effects of the temperature increase on winter wheat growth were largely offset by CO₂ rise as well as the bulky decrease in precipitation occurred outside the growing season. The overall results indicate that no-till and conservation tillage systems will be effective in combating soil erosion under projected climates in central Oklahoma.     

Trend and uncertainty analysis of simulated climate change impacts with multiple GCMs and emission scenarios

Trends and uncertainty of the climate change impacts on hydrology, soil erosion, and wheat production during 2010-2039 at El Reno in central Oklahoma, USA, were evaluated for 12 climate change scenarios projected by four GCMs (CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, and HadCM3) under three emissions scenarios (A2, B2, and GGa). Compared with the present climate, overall t-tests (n = 12) show that it is almost certain that mean precipitation will decline by some 6% (>98.5% probability), daily precipitation variance increase by 12% (>99%), and maximum and minimum temperature increase by 1.46 and 1.26 °C (>99%), respectively. Compared with the present climate under the same tillage systems, it is very likely (>90%) that evapotranpiration and long-term soil water storage will decease, but runoff and soil loss will increase despite the projected declines in precipitation. There will be no significant changes in wheat grain yield.Paired t-tests show that daily precipitation variance projected under GGa is greater than those under A2 and B2 (P = 0.1), resulting in greater runoff and soil loss under GGa (P = 0.1). HadCM3 projected greater mean annual precipitation than CGCM2 and CSIRO (P = 0.1). Consequently, greater runoff, grain yield, transpiration, soil evaporation, and soil water storage were simulated for HadCM3 (P = 0.1). The inconsistency among GCMs and differential impact responses between emission scenarios underscore the necessity of using multi-GCMs and multi-emission scenarios for impact assessments. Overall results show that no-till and conservation tillage systems will need to be adopted for better soil and water conservation and environmental protection in the region during the next several decades.     

Soil erosion from sugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate change induced seasonal precipitation variations

This study estimates the implications of projected seasonal variations in rainfall quantities caused by climate change for water erosion rates by means of a modeling case study on sugar beet cultivation in the Central European region of Upper-Austria. A modified version of the revised Morgan–Morgan–Finney erosion model was used to assess soil losses in one conventional and three conservation tillage systems. The model was employed to a climatic reference scenario (1960–89) and a climate change scenario (2070–99). Data on precipitation changes for the 2070–99 scenario were based on the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario as simulated by the regional climate model HadRM3H. Weather data in daily time-steps, for both scenarios, were generated by the stochastic weather generator LARS WG 3.0. The HadRM3H climate change simulation did not show any significant differences in annual precipitation totals, but strong seasonal shifts of rainfall amounts between 10 and 14% were apparent. This intra-annual precipitation change resulted in a net-decrease of rainfall amounts in erosion sensitive months and an overall increase of rainfall in a period, in which the considered agricultural area proved to be less prone to erosion. The predicted annual average soil losses under climate change declined in all tillage systems by 11 to 24%, which is inside the margins of uncertainty typically attached to climate change impact studies. Annual soil erosion rates in the conventional tillage system exceeded 10 t ha^− 1 a^− 1 in both climate scenarios. Compared to these unsustainably high soil losses the conservation tillage systems show reduced soil erosion rates by between 49 and 87%. The study highlights the importance of seasonal changes in climatic parameters for the discussion about the impacts of global climate change on future soil erosion rates in Central Europe. The results also indicate the high potential of adaptive land-use management for climate change response strategies in the agricultural sector.     

基于CLIGEN和GCM模型预测未来40年黄土丘陵沟壑区的气候变化——以安塞为例

为预测3种温室气体排放情景（A2、B2和GGa1）下未来40年黄土丘陵沟壑区的气候变化,利用安塞试验站1986—2003年的气候观测资料以及1986—2049年GCM（HadCM3）栅格数据,通过空间转换和时间转换,利用CLIGEN和GCM模型,预测未来40年以安塞为代表的黄土高原丘陵沟壑区的气候变化。结果表明：与当前条件相比,到2049年,A2、B2和GGa1 3种情景下预测的降雨量分别增加37%、22%和12%;3种情景下预测的最大月均降雨量出现在夏季;到2049年,A2、B2和GGa1 3种情景下预测的月均最低气温和月均最高气温皆增加,但差异不明显,年均最低气温和年均最高气温分别增加1.41-1.56℃和0.92-1.57℃。     

全球气候变化对泾河流域径流和输沙量的潜在影响

 全球气候变化对水循环产生巨大影响,而降水特征的变化因区域的不同有较大差异,这些变化对河流径流、泥沙及区域水土流失具有重要影响。以1961—2006年泾河流域降水、径流和输沙量等资料为基础,建立降水和径流、径流和输沙量之间的统计关系。通过5个大气环流模式(HadCM3、CGCM2、CSIRO-Mk2、ECHAM4和GFDL)对泾河流域未来不同时期(2010—2039年、2040—2069年和2070—2099年)的降水量进行模拟,进而根据统计关系计算出未来不同时期该流域的径流、输沙量。结果表明:不同大气环流模式对该流域降水量模拟结果不同,导致未来气候条件下径流和输沙量的预测也存在一定差异。比较IPCC排放情景中的A2、B2气候情景发现,在A2情景下径流和输沙量响应更为强烈。与近期实测资料(1961—2006年)相比,未来(2010—2099年)泾河流域降水、径流和输沙量的变化范围分别为-5.53%～31.65%、-9.26%～53.44%和-11.13%～64.59%,平均增加11.69%、19.78%和23.94%。研究结果对未来黄土高原水土保持规划和治理策略的制订具有指导意义。     

Effects of tillage and traffic on crop production in dryland farming systems: I. Evaluation of PERFECT soil-crop simulation model

Agricultural production systems are complex involving variability in climate, soil, crop, tillage management and interactions between these components. The traditional experimental approach has played an important role in studying crop production systems, but isolation of these factors in experimental studies is difficult and time consuming. Computer simulation models are useful in exploring these interactions and provide a valuable tool to test and further our understanding of the behavior of soil–crop systems without repeating experimentation.Productivity erosion and runoff functions to evaluate conservation techniques (PERFECT) is one of the soil–crop models that integrate the dynamics of soil, tillage and crop processes at a daily resolution. This study had two major objectives. The first was to calibrate the use of the PERFECT soil–crop simulation model to simulate soil and crop responses to changes of traffic and tillage management. The second was to explore the interactions between traffic, tillage, soil and crop, and provide insight to the long-term effects of improved soil management and crop rotation options. This contribution covers only the first objective, and the second will be covered in a subsequent contribution.Data were obtained from field experiments on a vertisol in Southeast Queensland, Australia which had controlled traffic and tillage treatments for the previous 5 years. Input data for the simulation model included daily weather, runoff, plant available water capacity, and soil hydraulic properties, cropping systems, and traffic and tillage management. After model calibration, predicted and measured total runoffs for the 5-year period were similar. Values of root mean square error (RMSE) for daily runoff ranged from 5.7 to 9.2 mm, which were similar to those reported in literature. The model explained 75–95% of variations of daily, monthly and annual runoff, 70–84% of the variation in total available soil water, and 85% of the variation in yield. The results showed that the PERFECT daily soil–crop simulation model could be used to generate meaningful predictions of the interactions between crop, soil and water under different tillage and traffic systems.Ranking of management systems in order of decreasing merit for runoff, available soil water and crop yield was (1) controlled traffic zero tillage, (2) controlled traffic stubble mulch, (3) wheeled zero tillage, and (4) wheeled stubble mulch.     

Root growth dynamics of spring cereals with discontinuation of mouldboard ploughing

A vigorous root system is essential for efficient use of plant nutrients. This paper focuses on root growth and its response to tillage changes in the most fertile soil horizon, 0–40 cm depth. The field experiment was established in 1995 on clay soil, with 45–50% clay and 5.5% organic matter in the topsoil. Three tillage treatments were mouldboard plough to a depth of 20 cm (conventional), field cultivator to a depth of 8 cm, and no primary tillage (conservation). The field had an oat (Avena sativa L.)–barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) crop rotation. In 1997–1998 and 2000, root distribution during the growing season was evaluated by a non-destructive minirhizotron (MR) and video recording method. Root length density and root diameter were also measured once a season (1997 and 1998) by destructive root sampling and image analysis of washed roots. At shoot elongation, root numbers increased more under conventional than conservation tillage, at soil depth of 10–25 cm. The effect was clear for both barley (1997) and oat (2000) with maximum root numbers of 175 and 210 per 100 cm² by mouldboard ploughing, but 120 and 170 per 100 cm² under unploughed conditions (in the whole 0–0.4 m region). The suboptimal condition of unploughed soil was also indicated by lower shoot nutrient contents at tillering (studied in 1997) and by higher penetrometer resistance (studied in 1998, 2000) and lower macroporosity (studied in 2000) at 10–25 cm soil depth. Root growth dynamics were similar for both plant species. Root diameter was not significantly affected by the tillage treatments. Discontinuation of mouldboard ploughing reduced root growth (P<0.05) within this clay soil 5 years after the tillage change, although conservation tillage preserved more water for plant use. The data show that a clay soil can be too dense for optimal rooting during the 3rd–6th-years after discontinuation of ploughing.     

Climate change impacts on soil erosion in Midwest United States with changes in crop management

This study investigates potential changes in erosion rates in the Midwestern United States under climate change, including the adaptation of crop management to climate change. Previous studies of erosion under climate change have not taken into account farmer choices of crop rotations or planting dates, which will adjust to compensate for climate change. In this study, changes in management were assigned based on previous studies of crop yield, optimal planting date, and most profitable rotations under climate change in the Midwestern United States. Those studies predicted future shifts from maize and wheat to soybeans based on price and yield advantages to soybeans. In the results of our simulations, for 10 of 11 regions of the study area runoff increased from + 10% to + 310%, and soil loss increased from + 33% to + 274%, in 2040–2059 relative to 1990–1999. Soil loss changes were more variable compared to studies that did not take into account changes in management. Increased precipitation and decreasing cover from temperature-stressed maize were important factors in the results. The soil erosion model appeared to underestimate the impact of change in crop type, particularly to soybeans, meaning that erosion increases could be even higher than simulated. This research shows that future crop management changes due to climate and economics can affect the magnitude of erosional impacts beyond that which would be predicted from direct climate change alone. Prediction of future soil erosion can help in the management of valuable cropland and suggest the need for continually changing soil conservation strategies.     

Effect of long-term conservation tillage on soil biochemical properties in Mediterranean Spanish areas

In semi-arid Mediterranean areas, studies of the performance of conservation tillage systems have largely demonstrated advantages in crop yield, soil water storage and soil protection against wind and water erosion. However, little attention has been given to interactions between soil biochemical properties under different tillage practices. Biochemical properties are useful tools to assess changes caused by different soil tillage systems in long-term field experiments. This study deals with the effect of long-term tillage practices (reduced tillage and no-tillage vs. traditional tillage) on soil chemical properties and microbial functions in three different sites of Spain (two of them located in the Northeast and one in the Southwest) under semi-arid Mediterranean conditions. Soil biological status, as index of soil quality, was evaluated by measuring microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and dehydrogenase (an oxidoreductase) and protease (a hydrolase) activities at three soil depths (0–5, 5–10 and 10–25 cm). In the three experimental areas, increases in soil organic matter content, MBC and enzymatic activities were found at the superficial layers of soil under conservation tillage (reduced tillage and no-tillage) in comparison with traditional tillage. Values of the stratification ratio of some biochemical properties were significantly correlated with yield production in Northeast sites.Conservation tillage has proven to be an effective strategy to improve soil quality and fertility in Mediterranean areas of Spain.     

Future productivity of fallow systems in Sub-Saharan Africa: Is the effect of demographic pressure and fallow reduction more significant than climate change?

In this century climate change is assumed to be the major driver for changes in agricultural systems and crop productivity at the global scale. However, due to spatial differences in cropping systems and in the magnitude of climatic change regional variations of climate change impact are expected. Furthermore, the recent climate projections are highly uncertain for large parts of West Africa. In particular with respect to annual precipitation and variability the projections vary between trends with decreasing precipitation and trends with slightly increasing precipitation within the next decades. On the other hand, the extensive fallow systems in this region suffer from increasing population pressure, which compromises soil fertility restoration. In the Republic of Benin, the demographic projections for the first half of this century indicate a continuous growth of the population with a narrow interval of confidence. Thus, in the absence of an adequate soil fertility management with judicious use of mineral fertilizers, the soil degradation process with decreasing crop yields is expected to continue. The objective of this paper was, therefore, to quantify the regional effect of future population growth on crop yields in West Africa and to compare it with the potential effects of climate change scenarios. Three land use scenarios (L1, L2 and L3) for the Upper Ouémé catchment where derived from different demographic projections combined with assumptions regarding future road networks and legal frameworks for forest protection using the CLUE-S modeling approach. The fallow-cropland ratio decreased in the three scenarios from 0.87 in the year 2000 to 0.66, 0.48 and 0.68 for L1, L2 and L3, respectively in 2050. Based on the projected ratio of fallow and cropland, trends of maize yield for the three land use scenarios were calculated using the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model coupled with a spatial database. Maize yields followed the decreasing trend of the fallow-cropland ratio and estimated yield reductions amounted to up to 24% in the period 2021-2050. This trend was compared with the impact of the SRES climate scenarios A1B and B1 based on the output of the GCM ECHAM5 downscaled with the REMO model and the A1B scenario output of the GCM HADC3Q0 downscaled with the RCMs SMHIRCA and HADRM3P. The yield reductions due to the projected climate change in the three models accounted for a yield decrease of up to 18% (REMO A1B scenario) in the same period. Taking into account the smaller uncertainties in the scenario assumptions and in the model output of the land use scenarios, it is concluded that, in low input fallow systems in West Africa, land use effects will be at least as important as climate effects within the next decades.     

Effect of straw and plastic film management under contrasting tillage practices on the physical properties of an erodible loess soil

The current cropping system of excessive tillage and stubble removal in the northwestern Loess Plateau of China is clearly unsustainable. A better understanding of tillage and surface cover management on surface soil structure is vital for the development of effective soil conservation practices in the long term. Changes in surface soil structure and hydraulic properties were measured after 4 years of straw and plastic film management under contrasting tillage practices (no tillage vs. conventional tillage) in a silt loam soil (Los Orthic Entisol) which had been under conventional management for hundred of years in the northwestern Loess Plateau, China. Surface soil (0–10 cm) under no tillage with straw cover had the highest water stability of macro-aggregates (>250 μm) and the highest saturated hydraulic conductivity. Compared with straw cover, plastic film cover did not change macro-aggregate stability and the soil had the lowest saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_sat) but the highest % <50 μm soil particles. Significant correlation was found between water stable macro-aggregates and soil organic carbon content, indication the importance of the latter on soil structural development. No tillage on its own (without straw cover) was not sufficient to improve structural stability probably due to lack of organic carbon input. While use of plastic film cover might lead to short term yield increases, results indicated that it did little to improve soil physical fertility. On the other hand, no tillage with straw cover management should lead to long-term improvement of physical quality of this structurally fragile soil.     

The influence of tillage systems on soil organic matter and soil hydrophobicity

Management practices including various tillage systems influence quantity and composition of soil organic matter (SOM). Parameters for evaluating both the SOM quantity (organic C [C_ox], total N [N_t]) and quality (microbial biomass C, hydrophobic and hydrophilic organic components) were determined in soil samples, taken from two soil depths (0–0.1 m and 0.1–0.3 m) in a field experiment in the period 2001–2007, with different tillage systems. The experiment, founded in 1995 in Prague-Ruzyně, includes conventional soil tillage (CT) plus some selected methods of conservation tillage: (a) no tillage (NT), (b) no tillage + mulch (NTM), and (c) minimum tillage with pre-crop residues incorporated (MTS). C_ox and microbial biomass C contents increased significantly with conservation tillage as compared to CT in 0–0.1 m layer, non-significant increase was found in 0.1–0.3 m layer. N_t increased non-significantly in both layers. Along with the depth of sampling, the content of the characterized parameters decreased in all variants; but the decrease in the conventionally tilled variant was, for the most part, lower than in the conservation tillage. The functional hydrophobic and hydrophilic groups of soil organic matter were identified by Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, and the hydrophobic/hydrophilic group intensities ratio was calculated as the parameter of soil hydrophobicity. A higher soil hydrophobicity existed in all three conservation tillage treatments compared to CT due to the significantly higher content of hydrophobic organic components. C_ox correlated significantly with microbial biomass C, N_t, hydrophobic components, and soil hydrophobicity (R = 0.552–0.654; P < 0.05). Hydrophilic components did not correlate with other soil characteristics, with the exception of hydrophobic components. These data show that shifting from CT to the conservation tillage systems increased the content of SOM in top soil layer in relatively short time, improved the SOM quality and increased soil hydrophobicity in the condition of experiment.     

Carbon sequestration in a long-term conventional versus conservation tillage experiment

The impact of conservation tillage practices on carbon sequestration has been of great interest in recent years. Changes in the soil organic carbon (SOC) as influenced by tillage, is more noticeable under long-term rather than short-term tillage practices. This experiment analyzed the organic carbon status of soils sampled at depth increments from 0 to 60 cm after 25 years of five tillage treatments in a silt loam soil. Zero tillage (ZT) treatment was compared to conventional tillage practices of mouldboard and chisel plow operations conducted either during the fall or spring season in a randomized complete block design with four replications. The SOC was calculated on depth and equivalent soil mass bases. Contrast analysis showed a significantly (5%) higher soil bulk density for zero versus fall and zero versus chisel tillage operations at 5–10 cm soil depth. The SOC concentration was dependent on the depth of tillage operation and followed the trend of higher SOC for zero, chisel, and mouldboard tillage at 0–5, 5–10, and 20–40 cm depth, respectively. There were more significant differences in the SOC storage when expressed on depth compared to an equivalent soil mass basis. SOC storage was significantly higher for ZT at the 0–5 cm soil depth compared to conventional tillage practices. Contrast analysis on an equivalent mass basis showed that SOC storage was significantly higher for spring tillage compared to fall tillage at 0–60 cm depth. In conclusion, ZT practices increased SOC concentration and storage compared to conventional tillage operations only for the surface layer but not for the entire soil profile.     

Climate change and translocations: The potential to re-establish two regionally-extinct butterfly species in Britain

Climate change is causing many organisms to migrate to track climatically-suitable habitat. In many cases, this will happen naturally, but in others, human intervention may be necessary in the form of ‘assisted colonisation’. Species re-establishments in suitable parts of their historic ranges provide an opportunity to conserve some species and to test ideas about assisted colonisation. Here, bioclimatic models of the distributions of two extinct British butterflies, Aporia crataegi and Polyommatus semiargus, were used to investigate the potential for re-establishment in Britain. Generalised additive models and generalised linear models were created to describe the species’ European distributions for the period 1961–1990. All models projected the British climate during this period to be suitable for both species. Thirty-year climate projections for the periods 1991–2020 and 2021–2050, and for three climate change scenarios, were then put into the models to generate projections of climatic suitability throughout the 21st century. British climate was projected to remain highly suitable for A. crataegi, but to decline somewhat for P. semiargus. Southern and eastern Britain were found to be the areas most likely to support suitable climate. This difference between the species appeared to be due in part to decreasing summer rainfall in climate change projections, as this should only benefit A. crataegi. It is concluded that, with further study of habitat requirements, both species could be reintroduced to Britain as part of a long-term European conservation strategy.     

Simulation of N<Subscript>2</Subscript>O fluxes from Irish arable soils: effect of climate change and management

Emissions of nitrous oxide (N₂O) from an Irish arable soil were simulated using the DeNitrification–DeComposition (DNDC) model. The soil chosen was a free-draining sandy loam typical of the majority of cereal growing land in Ireland, and one that has been previously used to test and validate DNDC-model. DeNitrification–DeComposition model was considered suitable to estimate N₂O fluxes from Irish arable soils however, underestimated the flux by 24%. The objectives of this study were to estimate future N₂O fluxes from a spring barley field under conventional (moulboard plowing) and reduced (chisel plowing) tillage and different N-fertilzer application rates. Three climate scenarios, a baseline of measured climatic data from the weather station at Kilkenny and a high- and low-temperature-sensitive scenarios predicted by the Hadley Global Climate Model (HadCM₄) based on the AB1 emission scenario of the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were investigated. For conventional tillage under all scenarios, three peaks of N₂O emissions were predicted; an early spring peak coinciding mostly with soil plowing, a mid/late spring peak coinciding with fertilizer application and an early autumn peak coinciding with residue incorporation and onset of autumn rainfall. Under reduced tillage, due to the less amount of soil disturbance, the early spring peak was not predicted. In all cases, the total amount of N₂O emitted in the late spring peak due to fertilizer application was less than the sum of the other peaks. Under climate change, using the high-temperature-increase scenario, DNDC predicted an increase in N₂O emissions from both conventional and reduced tillage, ranging from 58% to 88% depending upon N application rate. In contrast, annual fluxes of N₂O either decreased or increased slightly in the low temperature increase scenario relative to N application (−26 to +16%). Outputs from the model indicate that elevated temperature and precipitation increase N mineralization and total denitrification leading to greater fluxes of N₂O. Annual uncertainties due to the use of two different future climate scenarios were significantly high, ranging from 74% to 95% and from 71% to 90% for the conventional and reduced tillage.     

用统计降尺度模型预测川中丘陵区参考作物蒸散量

区域蒸散量(evapotranspiration)预测对精准灌溉预报与农田水分管理意义重大。该文利用川中丘陵区11个气象站点1961-2013年逐日气象资料,采用FAO-56 Penman-Monteith公式计算参考作物蒸散量(reference evapotranspiration,ET0),基于Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3(HadCM3)的输出和统计降尺度模型(statistical downscaling model,SDSM)分别对A2(高温室气体排放)、B2(低温室气体排放)情景下川中丘陵区2014-2099年ET0进行预测,并使用Mann-Kendall检验和反距离加权插值法对1961-2099年ET0的时空演变特征进行分析。结果表明:基准期(1961-2010年)川中丘陵区ET0整体呈现明显下降趋势,空间上呈现出东北部、西北部和东南部相对较大、中部相对较小的差异;与基准期相比,A2、B2情景下未来2020 s(2011-2040年)、2050 s(2041-2070年)和2080 s(2071-2099年)川中丘陵区ET_0月和年均值都呈增大趋势;A2情景下3个时期ET0将分别增加7.9%、10.9%和16.7%,B2情景下ET_0将分别增加7.1%、4.9%和12.8%;A2、B2情景下3个时期川中丘陵区ET_0空间分布均呈现西北部和南部较大、中部较小的空间差异,且3个时期的ET0相对变化率显示中部及其偏北、偏南区域ET_0增幅相对较大,北部和南部增幅相对较小。因此,未来川中丘陵区ET0的上升可能导致水资源短缺与季节性干旱进一步加剧。该研究可为川中丘陵区水资源优化管理和灌溉制度制定提供科学参考。     

随机气候生成器在黄土高原的适用性检验

 为进一步检验水蚀预报模型WEPP在黄土高原的适用性,并提供必要的数据准备,根据安塞水土保持综合试验站1986—2003年的日序列的降雨量、最高温度、最低温度和平均风速的实测值及全美范围内选择参照站得到的其他气象因子,对随机气候生成器在黄土高原的适用性进行了检验。结果表明:随机气候生成器能够较好地模拟单个气象因子,并未考虑各个气象因子之间的相互关系;同时,能准确地模拟年降水及其月分布,日最高温度、日最低温度的月分布,而风速模拟值的月均值、标准差普遍高于实测值的月均值、标准差。为此,选择参考站点时应综合考虑各个气象因子。按月计算的降水降水的概率和不降水降水的概率的模拟月均值比实测值偏低。     

Seedbed compaction produced by traffic on four tillage regimes in the rolling Pampas of Argentina

The main function of primary tillage is to increase the soil's structural macro-porosity, but during secondary tillage operations over these freshly tilled soils, traffic causes significant soil compaction. In terms of soil conservation however, there is evidence that direct sowing is a more sustainable system, even though there is still insufficient information about the rheology of a non-tilled soil under traffic. The objective of this study was to compare the traffic intensity and soil compaction caused by four different tillage regimes currently used by Argentinean farmers (1 direct sowing with a tractor and planter weighing 127 kN and 3 conventional tillage systems with equipment weighing 55.2 kN). The work was performed in the east of the Rolling Pampa region, Buenos Aires State, Argentina at 34°25′S, 59°15′W. Variables measured were: (1) cone index in the 0–450 mm depth profile; (2) bulk density; (3) total soil porosity; and (4) rut depth. (a) Results indicated that in the depth range 0–150 mm with all tillage treatments, bulk density and cone index values generated by tractor traffic were greater than the 1.3 Mg m⁻³ and 1400 kPa respectively. Similarly in deeper layers these parameters were greater than 1.45 Mg m⁻³ and 2000 kPa respectively. Measurements revealed that traffic reduced topsoil porosity under direct sowing by an average of 7% and under conventional tillage by 7.6–14.8% confirming that both systems cause both topsoil and subsoil compaction.