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1.
梯形渠道砼衬砌冻胀破坏的力学模型研究   总被引:42,自引:26,他引:16  
通过对梯形渠道砼衬砌冻胀破坏机理的分析,指出了渠坡衬砌板的计算简图为在法向冻结力、切向冻结力、法向冻胀力及衬砌板约束力作用下的两端简支梁;渠底衬砌板和两衬砌板都属压弯组合变形构件。提出了梯形渠道砼衬砌冻胀破坏的力学模型,并解出了渠坡衬砌板、渠底衬砌板控制内力及最大拉应力计算公式,结合砼板抗裂条件给出了冻胀力、胀裂部位、冻胀抗裂衬砌板厚度及抗冻胀破坏验算的一系列计算方法。指出了衬砌板上除重力以外的各种冻结力、冻胀力及相互约束力的大小及方向都是相互依存,最终都可以表达为最大切向冻结力的函数,而最大冻结力则是反映土质、负温及水分状况的综合指标,只要根据经验或实验确定了最大冻结力,力学模型就可求解。工程计算表明该模型是安全合理、简单实用的。  相似文献   

2.
基于数值模拟的双层薄膜防渗衬砌渠道抗冻胀机理探讨   总被引:10,自引:9,他引:1  
在渠道衬砌板下铺设双层塑料薄膜,使混凝土衬砌板与冻土层之间可滑移、不产生冻结约束,从而达到防治渠道衬砌冻胀破坏的目的,即为双层薄膜防渗衬砌渠道。为了探明其抗冻胀机理及削减冻胀效果,应用ADINA软件对双层薄膜防渗衬砌渠道冻胀进行数值模拟,研究衬砌板应力和变形规律。对比普通渠道,双层薄膜防渗衬砌渠道抗冻胀效果非常显著,自身受力状态得到显著改善,且冻胀变形、冻胀力分布更加均匀;其阴坡、渠底、阳坡切向冻结力极值及均方差降低幅度均大于法向冻胀力降低幅度,揭示了该种渠道通过削弱冻结约束来改善衬砌板冻胀受力及使冻胀量分布均匀的抗冻胀机理。对比梯形断面和弧底梯形,可知双层薄膜防渗衬砌渠道适用断面为弧底梯形,在实际工程中应对弧底板和渠坡板之间的伸缩缝加强管理,或采用整体现浇式结构,以防止渠坡板滑动失稳。这些工作为双层薄膜防渗衬砌渠道的深入研究和推广应用提供了参考。  相似文献   

3.
弧底梯形渠道砼衬砌冻胀破坏的力学模型研究   总被引:24,自引:21,他引:3       下载免费PDF全文
弧底梯形渠道以其抗冻胀性能及水力特性良好,在北方寒旱地区得到广泛应用,但该种形式衬砌的结构计算仍无力学模型,该衬砌体的设计只能凭经验选取,而无法量化.该文通过对弧底梯形渠道砼衬砌冻胀破坏机理及破坏特征的分析,指出了弧底梯形渠道砼衬砌整体结构的计算简图是在法向冻胀力及切向冻结力和重力共同作用下的薄壳拱形结构,就局部受力来看属压弯组合变形问题.通过恰当假设及简化,提出了该砼衬砌整体结构冻胀破坏的力学模型,求出了其冻胀控制内力及最大拉应力的计算公式,并结合砼板抗裂条件,给出了胀裂部位、衬砌板厚及抗冻胀破坏验算的一系列计算方法.理论分析阐明了弧底梯形砼衬砌结构因法向冻胀力数值小、分布均、恢复力大,因此,整体适应变形及抗冻胀能力强,从而更优于梯形断面.实例计算表明该模型安全合理、简单实用.  相似文献   

4.
混凝土预制板衬砌梯形断面渠道的冻胀破坏受力分析   总被引:24,自引:23,他引:1  
为了探讨寒区混凝土预制板衬砌渠道的受力问题,该文经过大量的野外实地调查研究,总结了寒区混凝土预制板衬砌梯形渠道通常发生的冻害形式,同时分析了该衬砌结构发生冻胀破坏的机理。在此基础上,通过合理假设并运用力学基本理论提出了衬砌结构受冻胀破坏的力学模型,推导出渠坡衬砌板、渠底衬砌板最大内力计算公式,只要根据有关规范或试验确定了最大冻结力,混凝土预制板的内力即可求解;在理论推导的基础上,结合工程实践给出了判断衬砌结构发生冻胀破坏的3个准则。该研究可为今后的工程设计提供一定的理论依据。  相似文献   

5.
冻胀反力系数在渠道衬砌冻胀弹性地基梁模型中的应用   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
为了探究渠道基土在冻胀过程中的非线性变形特性对渠道衬砌冻胀的影响,基于冻土三轴试验结果,建立考虑围压和温度的邓肯-张本构模型,参考室内三轴试验测定基床系数方法,应用数值模拟法建立冻胀反力系数随被约束冻胀量变化的计算式,并基于有限差分法离散弹性地基梁平衡微分方程。模型考虑衬砌不同点因被约束冻胀量不同引起冻胀反力系数不同的取值问题,克服以往模型中冻胀反力系数取常量的不足。应用解析解验证模型的合理性,探究冻胀反力系数分别为变量与常量时在梯形渠道衬砌冻胀力学响应计算结果上的差异。结果表明,对于边坡和渠底衬砌板,常量冻胀反力系数计算出的最大冻胀反力是变量的1.43倍,计算出的弯矩最大值平均是变量的1.12倍。因此在采用弹性地基梁理论分析渠道衬砌冻胀问题时,若冻胀反力系数采用常量,不考虑冻土的非线性变形,会使得计算结果偏大。研究结果可为大型梯形渠道衬砌抗冻胀设计提供参考。  相似文献   

6.
基于昼夜温度变化的混凝土衬砌渠道冻胀有限元分析   总被引:17,自引:15,他引:2  
为了掌握衬砌渠道冻胀量及冻胀力随昼夜气温变化的发展规律及冻胀破坏极限状态,根据冻土力学及冻土物理学理论,利用有限元软件ANSYS按瞬态温变模式加载温度,对衬砌渠道冻胀过程进行数值模拟,研究了其温度场和冻胀变形及法向冻胀力与切向冻胀力随时间的变化规律。结果表明:渠道冻融破坏除因渠基土冻胀外,阴阳两坡的温度、冻胀变形、冻胀力既不均匀不对称变化又不同步,也是渠道冻胀破坏的重要原因;阳坡滞后阴坡约15 d冻结,最大冻胀量及最大冻胀力滞后日平均最低气温约4 d,日内最大冻胀量及最大冻胀力滞后日最低气温约1 h;模拟结果与野外观测资料基本吻合,但比稳态数值模拟结果偏大,表明了运用瞬态数值模拟进行渠道抗冻胀设计的正确性和合理性。  相似文献   

7.
梯形渠道衬砌冻胀破坏弹性地基板模型   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0       下载免费PDF全文
为探讨开放系统中梯形混凝土衬砌渠道的冻胀问题,根据衬砌板与冻土地基的相互关系,采用 Winkler弹性地基板理论建立了考虑冻胀力和冻结力作用的衬砌板冻胀破坏力学模型,使用解析法得到了衬砌板变形和内力解,对不同地下水埋深、衬砌板几何参数的影响规律进行了分析。通过与已有现场观测值和计算值进行对比,验证了弹性地基板理论计算结果的正确性。研究结果表明:坡板在非均匀分布的冻胀力作用下,挠度、弯矩和剪力也表现为非均匀分布,挠度最大值在坡顶距坡脚2/3处,弯矩最大值靠近底板位置,拉应力分布与内力分布规律一致,与已有研究结果吻合。与梁理论相比,板理论计算结果表明衬砌板的挠度和内力沿板宽方向为非均匀分布,挠度和弯矩在自由边界(纵向伸缩缝)处增大,扭矩主要分布在衬砌板的拐角处。切向冻结力对渠道冻胀影响较小,在原渠道工况下,不考虑切向冻结力与考虑最大切向冻结力之间,最大挠度相差0.7 mm。针对不同地下水位的渠道,给出了衬砌板的安全厚度,可为现浇混凝土梯形渠道的抗冻胀设计提供参考和理论依据。  相似文献   

8.
为了探究寒区高地下水位引起渠道基土不均匀冻胀对梯形渠道混凝土衬砌冻胀的影响作用,该研究在前期提出的弹性地基梁模型基础上,将基土不均匀冻胀对边坡衬砌板的作用等效为作用在衬砌板上的荷载,给出在边坡衬砌板在基土发生不均匀冻胀的情况下其冻胀量,冻胀反力,弯矩和剪力的计算方法。以甘肃省高液限土壤,地下水位5 m地区的边坡系数为1的渠道为例,探究不同边坡衬砌板长度和不均匀冻胀基土之间的相互作用。结果表明,边坡衬砌板长度每增加1 m,冻胀反力最大值增大142%,弯矩最大值平均增大223%。同时,弯矩最大值点会从原来的距坡脚1/3左右处向坡脚偏移。因此,在寒区的高水位地区进行渠道设计的过程中,建议尽可能设计为宽浅式横断面,以减少由地下水引起的基土不均匀冻胀对渠道衬砌板的影响。同时,以边坡衬砌板长度为4 m为例,探究了基土均匀冻胀和不均匀冻胀对边坡衬砌板影响的差异,得出基土不均匀冻胀的冻胀反力最大值和弯矩最大值,分别比基土均匀冻胀大264%和170%。因此,在寒区高水位地区进行渠道抗冻胀衬砌设计时,宜按基土非均匀冻胀弹性地基梁模型计算。  相似文献   

9.
季节冻土区刚柔混合衬砌梯形渠道冻胀机理试验   总被引:9,自引:9,他引:0  
姜海波  田艳 《农业工程学报》2015,31(16):145-151
输水渠道冻胀破坏是寒冷地区渠道破坏的主要表现。为了探明刚柔混合衬砌渠道的冻胀机理,分析复合衬砌渠道的冻胀变形规律和冻胀过程中的水分变化规律,以及柔性复合土工膜的变形特征,该研究借助季节冻融条件下刚柔混合衬砌梯形渠道的原型观测成果,分析了刚柔混合衬砌渠道的最低地温变化规律、冻深变化规律和冻胀量与冻胀力的变化规律,重点研究了冻融条件下渠基土壤的水分迁移规律,以及复合土工膜的变形特征和强度变化。结果显示:刚柔混合衬砌渠道的冻胀变形最大值位于渠底和阴坡1/3处,最大冻胀量为11.2和13.1 cm,衬砌结构向上隆起。冻结期,渠基土壤0~60 cm深度范围内含水率随深度增加而增大,60~120 cm深度范围内的含水率随深度增大而逐渐减小。水分迁移最大值发生在渠道底部,迁移率为13.2%。经过一个冻融周期的循环,复合土工膜的强度和变形量仍然保持在90%以上,强度和变形损失值较小,可充分发挥复合土工膜防渗抗冻胀和适应变形的特性。该研究为刚柔混合衬砌渠道的设计、推广应用提供了理论依据。  相似文献   

10.
灌淤冻土复合衬砌渠道保温防冻胀效果分析   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
张栋  郭璇 《农业工程学报》2020,36(21):122-129
为解决河套灌区渠道混凝土衬砌冻胀破坏问题,该研究提出由聚氨酯和聚苯乙烯2种材料组成的复合衬砌结构,建立渠道基土水热力耦合数值模型,通过现场试验和数值模拟方法分析不同衬砌结构下基土地温、含水率、冻胀量及等效应力变化。结果表明:与无保温衬砌结构相比,阴坡聚苯乙烯复合衬砌结构和聚氨酯复合衬砌结构下基土最低地温分别提高67.1%和64.7%,最大迁移含水率分别减少8%和9%,最大冻胀量分别减少80%和81%,基土内等效应力明显减小。这2种复合衬砌结构具有保温效果好、冻胀变形小等优点,可作为寒区渠道保温防冻胀衬砌结构的选择。同时数值模型计算结果与试验值基本吻合,说明此数值模型可合理地描述渠道基土冻结过程中地温和冻胀量变化。研究可为寒区渠道防冻胀衬砌结构设计提供理论依据和参考。  相似文献   

11.
低氮和干旱胁迫对富士和秦冠生长及氮素利用的影响   总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0  
【目的】以富士(Fuji)、 秦冠(Qinguan)嫁接在平邑甜茶(Malus hupehensis Rehd.)上的当年生盆栽苗为试验材料,采用砂培方法,研究了缺氮胁迫和干旱对富士和秦冠生长情况、 光合参数、 植株各部位氮磷钾含量及氮素利用效率的影响,分析比较了低氮干旱条件下富士和秦冠生长及氮素利用的差异,以期为果树生产高效肥水利用提供理论指导。【方法】试验共设四个处理: 正常氮正常水(ZZ)、 低氮正常水(DZ)、 正常氮干旱(ZG)、 低氮干旱(DG)。氮素和水分均设置两个水平,分别为正常氮(6 mmol/L NO-3-N)、 低氮(0.3 mmol/LNO-3-N)、 正常供水(保持盆中砂子相对含水量为饱和含水量的80%~85%)、 干旱处理(保持盆中砂子相对含水量为饱和含水量的60%~65%)。【结果】富士和秦冠的生物量(茎和叶)、 株高茎粗等生长指标以及光合速率、 气孔导度、 蒸腾速率均为正常氮正常水(ZZ)>低氮正常水(DZ)>正常氮干旱(ZG)>低氮干旱(DG),并且相对应处理下秦冠的以上指标均高于富士;正常供水下,缺氮处理使富士、 秦冠的根冠比比正常氮处理均有所增加,富士提高了2.05%,秦冠提高了22.40%。富士和秦冠的氮、 磷、 钾含量均表现出正常氮正常水(ZZ)>低氮正常水(DZ)>正常氮干旱(ZG)>低氮干旱(DG); 氮、 钾元素含量在植株各部位的分布顺序依次是叶>根>茎,磷元素则是根>叶>茎;光合氮素利用效率(PNUE)和氮素利用效率表现为秦冠处理之间差异极显著,富士处理之间差异不显著;秦冠的PNUE和NUE明显高于富士,在低氮正常水(DZ)处理下,秦冠氮肥利用率比富士高42.07%,在低氮干旱(DG)处理下高64.14%;低氮胁迫下富士和秦冠的NUE显著提高,并且秦冠提高的幅度高于富士。【结论】施用氮肥能够显著提高富士与秦冠的干物质量,同等水肥条件下,秦冠生长优于富士;水分亏缺会减少叶片对氮的吸收,干旱条件下适度增施氮肥,可提高果树的抗旱能力;低氮干旱胁迫下秦冠的生长指标、 光合指标及氮素利用效率指标均优于富士,表现出较强的抗低氮干旱胁迫的能力。  相似文献   

12.
Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) is a new technique for the analysis of plant material. This study investigates the application of LIBS to pasture-based plant samples. The LIBS measurements were obtained from pelletized pasture samples (100 samples) that had been also analyzed by inductively coupled plasma–optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES) following microwave digestion for calibration and comparison purposes. Comparisons for elements sodium (Na), potassium (K), magnesium (Mg), calcium (Ca), manganese (Mn), iron (Fe), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), boron (B), phosphorus (P), and sulfur (S) showed that LIBS could be used for almost all the standard profile total elements with concentrations down to low mg/kg levels (observed error of Na: 0.024 percent, K: 0.18 percent, Mg: 0.016 percent, Ca: 0.073 percent, P: 0.017 percent, Mn: 31 mg/kg, Fe: 150 mg/kg, Zn: 6.6 mg/kg, and B: 1.1 mg/kg). Elemental analysis at less than mg/kg levels was not possible using LIBS. The elements S and Cu were particularly difficult to analyze with reliability using LIBS at the concentration levels found in the plant samples. Replacing microwave digestion and subsequent ICP analysis with a direct analysis of dried plant samples using LIBS has the potential to improve the productivity and reduce the cost of testing.  相似文献   

13.
正The Center for Agricultural Resources Research(CARR),the Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology(IGDB),Chinese Academy of Sciences,invites applicants for several research group leader positions.CARR is one of the research organizations in Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS).We seek nominations and applications from individuals who have expertise and a record of accomplishment in research areas related to ecology,agro-hydrology,  相似文献   

14.
Staff members of the Department of Botany of Palacký University in Olomouc and Gene Bank Department – Workplace Olomouc, Research Institute of Crop Production in Prague, Czech Republic, conducted an expedition in seven European countries (Austria, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland) in August/September 1999 to collect wild Lactuca spp. germplasm and study its geographic distribution, ecology and biodiversity. During the mission, more than 600 locations were visited resulting in the collection of 602 seed samples (accessions) of wild Lactuca species and 13 seed samples of related genera (Chondrilla and Mycelis). Lactuca serriola f. serriola, L. serriola f. integrifolia, L. saligna and L. viminea subsp. chondrilliflora were prevalent in southern Europe (Italy, France), however, only L. serriola was common in central and western Europe (Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland). The greatest diversity of Lactuca species was found in France, where also the most seed samples (165) were collected. The most characteristic habitats with a high density of Lactuca spp. populations were observed along roads and highways, grassy ditches, ruderal communities, and dust-heaps. Natural infections by powdery mildew (Erysiphe cichoracearum) and downy mildew (Bremia lactucae) on some wild Lactuca spp. were observed. Recent observations concerning the geographic distribution, population structure, habitats, and natural occurrence of diseases of Lactuca spp. are discussed. This assemblage of genetic resources of Lactuca spp. can serve as the basis of future studies of species diversification, spatial population structure, plant microevolution, domestication processes, and genetic variability of host-parasite interactions.  相似文献   

15.
The responses of tallgrass prairie plant communities and ecosystem processes to fire and grazing are well characterized. However, responses of invertebrate consumer groups, and particularly soil-dwelling organisms, to these disturbances are not well known. At Konza Prairie Biological Station, we sampled soil macroinvertebrates in 1994 and 1999 as part of a long-term experiment designed to examine the effects and interactions of annual fire, mowing, and fertilization (N and P) on prairie soil communities and processes. For nearly all taxa, in both years, responses were characterized by significant treatment interactions, but some general patterns were evident. Introduced European earthworms (Aporrectodea spp. and Octolasion spp.) were most abundant in plots where fire was excluded, and the proportion of the total earthworm community consisting of introduced earthworms was greater in unburned, unmowed, and fertilized plots. Nymphs of two Cicada genera were collected (Cicadetta spp. and Tibicen spp.). Cicadetta nymphs were more abundant in burned plots, but mowing reduced their abundance. Tibicen nymphs were collected almost exclusively from unburned plots. Treatment effects on herbivorous beetle larvae (Scarabaeidae, Elateridae, and Curculionidae) were variable, but nutrient additions (N or P) usually resulted in greater densities, whereas mowing usually resulted in lower densities. Our results suggest that departures from historical disturbance regimes (i.e. frequent fire and grazing) may render soils more susceptible to increased numbers of European earthworms, and that interactions between fire, aboveground biomass removal, and vegetation responses affect the structure and composition of invertebrate communities in tallgrass prairie soils.  相似文献   

16.
李聃枫  朱春梧 《土壤》2020,52(3):561-566
自20世纪60年代"绿色革命"以来,育种技术和农耕技术的发展促进了农作物产量的大幅提升,然而作物的营养品质出现下降趋势。在相似的遗传背景下,大气CO_2浓度升高会使单位体积农作物产品的营养元素含量下降,因此"绿色革命"至今,农作物产品的营养元素下降可能受大气CO_2浓度升高影响。通过植物生长箱模拟"绿色革命"初期和目前的大气CO_2浓度水平(310μmol/mol和400μmol/mol),针对主要C_3作物水稻、小麦和大豆,研究"绿色革命"以来大气CO_2浓度升高对其籽粒的C、N、Fe、Zn元素含量的影响,结果表明:CO_2浓度升高对3种作物籽粒的C元素含量几乎没有影响,变化幅度在±1.5%之间;籽粒的N、Fe、Zn元素含量普遍呈现下降趋势,但均未达到显著水平。  相似文献   

17.
Discovery and incorporation of genes from wild species provide means to sustain crop improvement, particularly when levels of resistance in the cultigens are low and virulent strains of pests and pathogens overcome the host plant resistance. The extent of utilization and the potential of the wild genepool for genetic enhancement were reviewed in five important food crops viz. sorghum, pearl millet, chickpea, pigeonpea and groundnut grown in the semi-arid tropics. Introgression from compatible wild germplasm in the primary gene pool resulted in transfer of new cytoplasmic male sterility systems in pearl millet and pigeonpea, development of high protein, cleistogamous flower and dwarf pigeonpea lines and foliar disease resistant groundnut cultivars. Utilization of wild species in secondary and tertiary gene pools has been generally limited due to sterility, restricted recombination or cross incompatibility. Nevertheless, these species are extremely important as they contain high levels of resistance to several important biotic and abiotic stresses. Several of them, like those belonging to the Parasorghum section and the rhizomatous Arachis species are sources of multiple resistances and hold great promise to sustain crop productivity.  相似文献   

18.
Biologically enhanced dissolution offers a method to speed removal of chlorinated solvent dense non-aqueous-phase liquid (DNAPL) sources such as tetrachloroethene (PCE) and trichoroethene (TCE) from aquifers. Bioremediation is accomplished by adding an electron donor to the source zone where fermentation to intermediates leading to acetic acid and hydrogen results. The hydrogen and possibly acetic acid are used by dehalogenating bacteria to convert PCE and TCE to ethene and hydrochloric acid. Reductive dehalogenation is thus an acid forming process, and sufficient alkalinity must be present to maintain a near neutral pH. The bicarbonate alkalinity required to maintain pH above 6.5 is a function of the electron donor: 800 mg/L of bicarbonate alkalinity is sufficient to achieve about 1.2 mM TCE dechlorination with glucose, 1.7 mM with lactate, and a much higher 3.3 mM with formate. Laboratory studies indicate that in mixed culture, formate can be used as an electron donor for complete conversion to ethene, contrary to pure cultures studies indicating it cannot. Various strategies can be used to add electron donor to an aquifer for DNAPL dehalogenation while minimizing pH problems and excessive electron donor usage, including use of injection-extraction wells, dual recirculation wells, and nested injection-extraction wells.  相似文献   

19.
Abstract

A 3-year study was carried out to investigate quality parameters in 14 tree fruit and berry species grown in southern Norway. The species were blueberry, apple, aronia, sour cherry, sweet cherry, red raspberry, strawberry, blackcurrant, gooseberry, red currant and elderberry, harvested along with wild bilberry, cloudberry and lingonberry. Significant differences between species were identified for all quality parameters. The coefficient of variation between species was lowest for pH (12.5%), dry matter (18.9%) and soluble solids (25.3%), followed by titratable acids (59.3%), total phenolics (83.8%), antioxidant capacity FRAP (85.7%) and antiradical power by the DPPH-assay (97.8%), total monomeric anthocyanins (132%) and ascorbic acid (137%). Average coefficient of variation within species were lower and ranged from 4 (pH) to 62% (ascorbic acid). Only the FRAP values were significantly affected by harvesting year with lower levels in 2004 than in 2005 and 2006. There were significant interactions between species and harvesting year for dry matter, soluble solids, pH, ascorbic acid and FRAP. The results indicate generic ranges in composition within species independent upon growing location and climate, and the composition of the tree fruits and berries is not likely to deviate from these ranges. It is concluded that desirable composition of tree fruits and berries and their products should primarily be achieved by selection among species rather than searching fors broadened variation within individual species.  相似文献   

20.
“Wicked” problems are those that are complex and that change when solutions are applied. Many conflicts in conservation fall into this category. The study approached the problem of how to constrain the apparent wickedness of a problem in the conservation management of a species by using simple empirical indicators to carry out iterative assessment of the risk to a population and to document how this risk evolves in relation to the addition of new data and the implementation of management actions. Effects of high levels of uncertainty within data and also concerning population structure were examined through stochastic simulation and by exploration of scenarios. Historical trends in the example used, the Steller sea lion, showed rapid declines in abundance in some regions during the 1980s. The current total population is 130,000-150,000 Steller sea lions through Alaska and British Columbia and this number has been stable since about 1990 in spite of regional differences in population dynamics. Regional differences in the sequence of changes in the number of pups and non-pups, suggested that an internal re-distribution of juveniles could have happened between 1980 and 1990. Current productivity also appears close to the long-term mean. Stochastic population projection using various scenarios showed that, based upon this history, the risk of extinction for the population has declined and is below reasonable thresholds for considering the population to be endangered. The trends in risk suggest that management actions taken since 1990 have probably been effective. Consequently, the conservation management objectives for the Steller sea lion are probably being met. The approach provides a mechanism, based upon experience and scenario analysis, for exploring future policy options and may help to constrain the debate amongst stakeholders about the cost-benefit trade-offs associated with different options.  相似文献   

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