Aerial surveying of the world’s largest leatherback turtle rookery: A more effective methodology for large-scale monitoring

For many marine megavertebrate species it is challenging to derive population estimates and knowledge on habitat use needed to inform conservation planning. For marine turtles, the logistics required to undertake comprehensive ground-based censuses, across wide spatial and temporal scales, are often insurmountable. This frequently leads to an approach where a limited number of index nesting beaches are monitored in great detail by foot. In this study we use nationwide aerial surveying interfaced with ground assessments across three seasons of leatherback turtle nesting in Gabon (Equatorial West Africa), highlighting the importance of a synoptic approach to marine turtle monitoring. These surveys allow the first complete population assessment of this nesting aggregation to be made, identifying it as the world’s largest for the species (36,185-126,480 clutches, approximating to 5865-20,499 breeding females per annum and a total estimate of 15,730 to 41,373 breeding females). Our approach also serendipitously provides insights into the spatial appropriateness of Gabon’s protected areas network, for example (mean ± 1SD) 79 ± 6% (range 67-86%) of leatherback turtle activities recorded during aerial surveys (n = 8) occurred within protected areas (345 km, 58%, of surveyed coastline). We identify and discuss sources of potential error in estimating total nesting effort from aerial surveying techniques and show that interannual variation in nesting is considerable, which has implications for the detection of statistically significant changes in population size. Despite its relative costliness per day, aerial surveying can play an important role in providing estimates of relative population abundance of large vertebrates dispersed over extensive areas. Furthermore, it can provide data on habitat use and deliver real-time information on the spatial efficacy of protected area networks.     

Brown hyaenas on roads: Estimating carnivore occupancy and abundance using spatially auto-correlated sign survey replicates

Carnivore survey protocols that properly address spatial sampling and detectability issues are seldom feasible at a landscape-scale. This limits knowledge of large-scale patterns in distribution, abundance and their underlying determinants, hindering conservation of globally threatened carnivore populations. Occupancy analysis of data from logistically efficient sign surveys along consecutive road segments (spatially auto-correlated replicates) offers a potential solution. We adapted and applied this newly-developed method over 62,979 km² of human-modified land in South Africa. Our aims were to (1) generate unbiased estimates of brown hyaena occupancy and abundance (2) investigate two suspected determinants of occupancy using a combination of biological and socio-economic sampling techniques, and (3) use simulations to evaluate the effort required for abundance and occupancy estimates with acceptable bias, precision and power. Brown hyaena occupancy was estimated at 0.748 (±SE 0.1), and estimated overall density in agricultural land (0.15/100 km², ±SE 0.08) was an order of magnitude lower than in protected areas. Positive attitudes to carnivores and presence of wildlife farms exerted strong positive effects on occupancy, so changes in these factors may well exert monotonic impacts on local metapopulation status. Producing reliable occupancy and abundance estimates would require ?6 replicates and ?12 replicates per site respectively. Detecting 50% and 30% declines in brown hyaena occupancy with adequate power would require five annual surveys at ?65 sites and ?125 sites respectively. Our results suggest that protocols based on spatially auto-correlated sign survey replicates could be used to monitor carnivore populations at large, and possibly even country-wide spatial scales.     

Migration routes and important resting areas of Siberian cranes (Grus leucogeranus) between northeastern Siberia and China as revealed by satellite tracking

In 1995 and 1996 thirteen Siberian cranes (Grus leucogeranus) were fitted with satellite transmitters on the breeding grounds in northeastern Siberia. Eleven of these 13 birds were successfully satellite tracked, and five of these 11 provided complete migratory information from their breeding grounds in Yakutia, Siberia, to their wintering area at Poyang Lake, in China. Several stopover sites were identified, the most important being in Qiqihar-Baicheng (China), Shuangtaizi River delta (China), and Yellow River delta (China). Birds rested more frequently in Russia than in China, suggesting availability of suitable wetland habitat in Russia and absence of adequate, suitable wetland habitat in China. Wintering habitat in China also faces numerous threats. Habitats utilized by Siberian cranes are also important to other threatened wetland birds that have been satellite-tracked recently. If Siberian crane habitat needs fail to be addressed, this critically endangered species will be further endangered.     

The influence of food availability on breeding success of African penguins Spheniscus demersus at Robben Island, South Africa

From 1989 to 2004, the breeding success of African penguins Spheniscus demersus at Robben Island, South Africa was significantly related to estimates of the abundance of both their main prey species, anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus and sardine Sardinops sagax, and to the combined biomass of these species. When the combined spawner biomass of fish prey was less than 2 million ton, pairs fledged an average of 0.46 chicks annually. When it was above 2 million ton, annual breeding success had a mean value of 0.73 chicks per pair. Given previously estimated values of survival and age at first breeding, these levels of breeding success are inadequate to sustain the African penguin population. With the higher level of breeding success, an equilibrium situation might be attained if adult survival could be increased by 6-7% per annum. Attempts to reduce mortality of penguins have included the collection, cleaning and return to the wild of oiled birds, culling of Cape fur seals Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus seen preying on penguins around breeding localities and control of the spread of disease. Management of the purse-seine fishery should ensure adequate escapement of fish to maintain the combined biomass of anchovy and sardine above 2 million ton. The maintenance of suitable breeding habitat and removal of feral predators from breeding localities will also be important in improving breeding success.     

Demography of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) at Uda Walawe National Park, Sri Lanka based on identified individuals

We provide estimates of population size and other demographic variables for individually-identified Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in Uda Walawe National Park (UWNP), Sri Lanka based on systematic year-round observations. Two hundred and eighty-six adult females and 241 adult males were identified, of which four adults (2% of males) had tusks. Sightings-based demographic models showed seasonal immigration and emigration from the study area. The total population, including non-adults, was between 804 and 1160 individuals. Density ranged from 102 to 116 adult females per 100 km² and remains at this level throughout the year. This large, un-fragmented population of Asian elephants should be of high conservation priority. We find that estimates of survivorship and migration rates should be based on long sampling intervals when possible, but estimates of density and population size can still be made when observations are constrained to shorter intervals, if spatial data are available. We offer suggestions to guide census design for other elephant populations or cryptic species. We urge that other locations be systematically surveyed as well using photographic identification.     

The evaluation of key sites for breeding waders in lowland Scotland

This study considers the selection of sites based on the densities of breeding waders that would be considered to be distributed widely across common habitats in Scotland: so-called ‘wider countryside’ species. Five methods to provide a hierarchical classification of sites are assessed. Fifty percent of the populations of redshank (Tringa totanus) and snipe (Gallinago gallinago) occur on just 2 and 4.5% of Scottish lowlands, respectively, yet neither are suitably protected by conservation measures and both would benefit from a carefully targeted approach to their conservation. Three species, lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), curlew (Numenius arquata) and oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) are more appropriately considered to be dispersed species. We propose that, if the density of a breeding wader on a site exceeds the threshold level predicted for the top 1% of Scottish lowland for that species, and if the area of the site exceeds 1 km² then that site be considered to be a key site for farmland waders. The minimum density (in pairs km⁻²) must exceed 16.8 for lapwing, 10.1 for oystercatcher, 6.1 for snipe, 7.5 for curlew or 3.6 for redshank.     

Estimating the density of a jaguar population in the Brazilian Pantanal using camera-traps and capture-recapture sampling in combination with GPS radio-telemetry

The jaguar (Panthera onca) is the largest feline in the Americas and third largest world-wide, smaller in size only to the tiger (P. tigris) and lion (P. leo). Yet, in comparison, relatively few studies on jaguar population densities have been conducted and baseline data for management purposes are needed. Camera trapping and capture-recapture sampling methods were used to estimate the size of a jaguar population in the Pantanal’s open wet grassland habitat, an important area for the long-term survival of the species. This study is the first jaguar population estimate conducted in co-operation with a GPS-telemetry study providing an important opportunity for comparing different methods of density estimation. An accessible area within a 460 km² privately-owned ranch was sampled with equal effort during the dry seasons of 2003 and 2004. Thirty-one and twenty-five individual jaguars were identified in 2003 and 2004, respectively. Estimates of jaguar abundance were generated by program CAPTURE. Density estimates were produced according to different methods used to calculate the effectively sampled areas which ranged from 274 to 568 km². For 2003, the currently-used mean maximum distance moved (MMDM) method produced a density of 10.3 jaguars/100 km², while GPS-telemetry-based calculations produced a mean density of 6.6 jaguars/100 km². For 2004, the MMDM method produced an estimate of 11.7 jaguars/100 km² while GPS-telemetry calculations produced a density of 6.7 jaguars/100 km². Our results suggest that the widely-used MMDM method used to calculate effectively sampled areas is significantly under-reflecting maximum distances moved by jaguars and their range-use and, thereby, considerably inflating cat density estimates. This overestimation could place a population in a difficult situation by lengthening the time taken to initiate protection measures because of underestimating the risk to that population.     

Bird community ecology on power-line corridors in East Tennessee

Breeding bird density and vegetation structure were determined during three breeding seasons in 14 plots on power-line corridors through forests in East Tennessee. The purpose was to describe the corridor bird community and to relate bird density and diversity to a number of environmental variables. The relative abundance of forbs, blackberry Rubus ssp., saplings, and areas of planted grasses varied significantly among plots. Thirteen bird species appeared to be attracted to the corridors. Seven of these species were classified as brush species, three as edge species, and three as generalist species, depending on their relative abundance in corridor, edge, and forest, respectively.Control of bird community density on the corridors was complex because individual species densities correlated significantly with several different variables. These variables were Rubus density and patchiness, sapling density and patchiness, corridor width, length of coniferous or deciduous forest edge, coverage of planted grasses, and number of years following vegetation maintenance by cutting.Bird community density varied among plots from 210 to 750 pairs km^?2, and increased asymptotically with Rubus density. Rubus density explained most of the variation and Rubus patchiness explained a significant additional portion. Species number varied little. Within plots, birds were registered significantly less often in grass-dominated areas than in forb-Rubus-dominated areas.     

耐低氮小麦基因型筛选指标的研究

以12个小麦基因型为研究对象,采用溶液培养与田间试验的方法,设低氮胁迫和正常供氮2个水平,对耐低氮小麦基因型的筛选指标进行了探讨,为氮高效基因型小麦育种提供理论依据。结果表明,小麦植株干重在低氮胁迫和正常供氮条件下都有较大的基因型变异(变异系数CV分别为29.03%和18.21%);在所有调查性状的相对值中,相对植株干重(低氮胁迫/正常供氮)基因型变异较大(CV为22.76%)。相关性分析表明,相对植株干重与相对株高、相对植株吸氮量和相对氮利用效率间呈极显著正相关(P0.01),且溶液培养试验中相对植株干重和田间试验中相对子粒产量(不施氮/施氮)间呈极显著正相关(r=0.77**,n=12)。因此,以小麦苗期相对植株干重作为筛选指标,然后进行田间验证,是筛选耐低氮小麦基因型行之有效的途径。     

1992-2017年中亚五国农作物水足迹变化特征

本研究以中亚五国为研究区域,以农作物水足迹为评估手段,分析了1992—2017年间中亚五国农作物水足迹的时空变化特征,以揭示中亚五国农作物水足迹结构,厘清引起中亚五国水足迹变化的主要农作物的贡献。结果表明:1)中亚五国农作物水足迹时间变化特征明显,1992—2017年中亚五国农作物绿水足迹(-9.7×10~9 m~3)和蓝水足迹(-5.6×10~9 m~3)均趋于减少。中亚五国农作物水足迹空间分布差异显著,哈萨克斯坦农作物绿色水足迹最高(平均4.96×10~(10) m~3),且远高于其他4国(平均3.6×10~9 m~3),而蓝水足迹以乌兹别克斯坦最高(平均1.53×10~(10) m~3)。农作物绿水足迹和蓝水足迹增长率最大的国家分别是土库曼斯坦(87.6%)和吉尔吉斯斯坦(32.3%);绿、蓝水足迹减少率最大的国家分别是哈萨克斯坦(-20.7%)和乌兹别克斯坦(-24.2%)。2)中亚地区农作物绿水足迹主要以粮食作物为主,蓝水足迹以粮食作物和油料纤维作物为主;而粮食作物水足迹结构中,主要以小麦、水稻和玉米为主,油料纤维作物水足迹结构中,主要以棉花为主。3)哈萨克斯坦作为绿水足迹减少最多的国家,大麦(51.6%)和小麦(28.2%)的贡献最大;乌兹别克斯坦作为蓝水足迹减少最多的国家,棉花(61.9%)贡献最大。通过开展中亚地区的农作物水足迹研究,发现中亚农作物水足迹整体呈下降趋势,厘清了中亚地区引起水足迹下降的主要农作物种类,相关成果可以为中亚地区的农作物优化种植和水资源节约提供支撑。     

Density and population size estimates for North Cascade grizzly bears using DNA hair-sampling techniques

We used non-invasive DNA hair-sampling and catch per unit effort (CPUE: grizzly bears detected per 1000 trap nights) to estimate relative density and population size for a threatened grizzly bear population in the North Cascade Ecosystem of Washington and British Columbia. We used linear, logistic, and linear through the origin regression analyses to estimate the relationship between catch per unit effort and grizzly bear density for seven other grizzly populations. One grizzly bear was detected during 5304 trap nights (CPUE=0.19) over 3 years in the North Cascades. This CPUE was much lower than in the other seven populations, including two threatened grizzly populations in the Cabinet-Yaak and Selkirk Mountain Ecosystems. The logistic model (curvilinear relationship) best fit the data (R²=0.927), and yielded density and population size estimates of 0.15 bears/100 km² (90% CI=0.03-0.71) and six bears (90% CI=1-27), respectively. Natural recovery seems unlikely for the North Cascade grizzly bear population because the population has a high likelihood of extinction due to demographic and environmental stochastic effects associated with extremely small population numbers. We recommend population augmentation. DNA hair-sampling and catch per unit effort models can be a useful method to evaluate relative densities and numbers of animals in small, threatened grizzly bear populations when sample sizes are too small to yield traditional mark-recapture analysis.     

Correlates of abundance and breeding success in the globally threatened Hinde's babbler (Turdoides hindei) and its congener, northern pied babbler (T. hypoleucus)

We investigated the relationship between habitat quality, abundance, group size and breeding success in the threatened Kenyan endemic Hinde's babbler (Turdoides hindei; Family Timaliidae), a co-operative breeder mainly associated with riverine thickets in cultivated areas. At two intensively cultivated sites, significantly more Hinde's babbler groups occurred in areas retaining at least 3% thicket cover, while breeding outcome improved where cover exceeded 9%. Despite previous concerns over low breeding success, the percentage of young birds present (17%, n=424 birds aged) was similar to that of a sympatric congener, the northern pied babbler (T. hypoleucus) (12%, n=162), and comparable with that of two other African congeners. Although breeding outcome was positively correlated with adult group size, there was no evidence that larger groups monopolised more favourable habitat or defended larger territories. Group density showed a positive, non-linear relationship with adjacent cover, levelling out where this exceeded 15-20%. Our findings suggest that even a modest increase in thicket cover may significantly raise the density and productivity of Hinde's babblers at these sites.     

A review of sea turtle nesting activity along the Mediterranean coast of Turkey

Many parts of the Turkish coastline are important nesting grounds for sea turtles. The aim of this study was to assess the present state of sea turtle populations along the coastline of Turkey, by evaluating research conducted at various nesting grounds from 1979 to 2000. The results of the evaluation indicate that the Turkish coastline is the most important nesting area for Chelonia mydas, and the third most important nesting area for Caretta caretta after Greece and Libya (if nesting estimates for Libya are correct) in the entire Mediterranean. The most important C. caretta nesting beaches in Turkey are Dalyan (11.9%), Kumluca (11.3%), Belek (27.9%), Kizilot, (8.9%) and Anamur (8.8%), while those for C. mydas are Kazanli (24.1%) and Akyatan (54.4%). These sites are classified as “Nesting Areas of 1st Degree Importance”. Annual mean nest numbers along the coastline of Turkey are estimated to be ca. 2000 for C. caretta and 650 for C. mydas. Assuming that each adult female sea turtle nests three times per season, the annual numbers of nesting females along the beaches of Turkey range between about 500 and 800 for C. caretta and 130 and 300 for C. mydas. Annual nesting densities along the 204 km beach strip, which includes 17 important nesting grounds in Turkey, were 11.3 nests/km for C. caretta and 19.2 nests/km for C. mydas.     

Annual population dynamics and production ecology of Testacea (Protozoa,Rhizopoda) in an aspen woodland soil

The population studies of Testacea in an aspen woodland soil revealed 28 taxa of living Testacea, 14 of which were considered constant. The 14 species, while comprising 98 and 96% of the mean annual density and total annual production numbers respectively, accounted for only 80% of the mean annual biomass and 86% of the total annual production biomass. All 14 species had a peak in abundance in autumn, immediately or soon after leaf litter fall. While most species maintained small, active and reproducing populations over the winter period, some maintained higher than normal densities, had seasonal peaks in abundance and biomass, or higher than normal rates of production and turnover. All species had an increase in reproduction and usually in abundance also during the late winter-early spring period before spring thaw. The annual mean weekly density and biomass and the annual production totals tor numbers and biomass were highest in the H layer and lowest in the L. The F layer produced the highest numbers of generations per year and the highest annual mean weekly biomass turnover rate for most of the species. The majority of the periods of high intrinsic rate of natural increase, biomass production and turnover occurred during or after an increase, a decrease or a stabilization in soil moisture content. Mean annual biomass and total annual production were estimated as 0.72 and 206 g wet weight m^?2 respectively. The aspen woodland soil Testacea (in a mor humus) had a much higher production and number of generations per year than Testacea from mull and moder humus forms.Total annual ingestion, respiration losses and egestion losses for testate amoebae in an aspen woodland soil were calculated as 1377, 344 and 826 g wet weight of biomass m^?2, respectively. The annual secondary production of Testacea was about 250–300 times the standing crop of Testacea in all the soil layers. The dry weight of carbon respired per year by the Testacea was estimated as 16.2 g m^?2, which amounted to about 6% of the total carbon input.     

虫口密度和温度对乌蔹莓鹿蛾生长发育的影响

为探索乌蔹莓鹿蛾的人工饲养条件, 就幼虫饲养密度(每瓶1 头、3 头、5 头、7 头、9 头)和温度(25 ℃、28 ℃、31 ℃)对乌蔹莓鹿蛾的发育历期、存活率和取食等进行了研究。结果显示, 与群体饲养相比, 单头饲养的乌蔹莓鹿蛾幼虫的发育历期长, 成活率低, 取食量较大。在25~31 ℃的环境温度下, 乌蔹莓鹿蛾幼虫的发育历期随温度升高而缩短, 28~31 ℃较有利于幼虫生长发育, 28 ℃的存活率最高(79.47%), 31 ℃时幼虫取食量最大(2.45 g·头^-1)。在人工饲养条件下, 初龄幼虫以3~5 头群体饲养为宜, 3 龄以后以单头饲养为宜, 饲养温度以28~31 ℃为宜。     

Implications of intraguild predation for sea turtle nest protection

In the United States, raccoons Procyon lotor are often removed from sea turtle nesting beaches to decrease egg mortality. However, raccoons also consume ghost crabs Ocypode quadrata, another common egg predator. Reducing predator populations can benefit secondary predators, inflating total predation pressure and leading to a decline in prey species. We used track and burrow counts to compare raccoon and ghost crab abundance at four beaches in Florida, USA, that differ in management activity and determined predation rates on loggerhead Caretta caretta nests by each predator. Mean raccoon abundance (range 0.12-0.46 tracks plot⁻¹ night⁻¹) and ghost crab density (0.09-0.19 burrows m⁻²) were inversely correlated. Ghost crabs were largest at the site with the fewest raccoons. The stable nitrogen isotope ratios of ghost crabs (mean 9.8‰) were positively correlated with body mass, indicating larger ghost crabs feed at a higher trophic level and suggesting large ghost crabs may consume more loggerhead eggs. The highest rates of egg predation by both predators (31%) occurred where raccoon abundance was lowest and ghost crab abundance was highest, suggesting ghost crab burrows may facilitate predation by raccoons. Our data suggest that predation by raccoons limits ghost crabs and that removing raccoons can increase ghost crab abundance and sea turtle egg mortality. Although predator removal can be effective when nest predation rates are quite high, maintaining moderate raccoon densities may be important for controlling ghost crabs. These results highlight the importance of understanding food web connectivity in developing management strategies to achieve conservation goals, especially when the species of concern are threatened or facing extinction.     

Distribution, status, and conservation needs of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in Lampung Province, Sumatra, Indonesia

In the mid 1980s, Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) populations were believed to persist in 44 populations on the Indonesian island of Sumatra. Twelve of these populations occurred in Lampung Province, but our surveys revealed that only three were extant in 2002. Causal factors underlying this decline include human population growth, changes in land use, and human-elephant conflict. Nevertheless, our surveys in the Province’s two national parks, Bukit Barisan Selatan and Way Kambas, produced population estimates of 498 (95% CI = [373, 666]) and 180 (95% CI = [144, 225]) elephants, respectively. The estimate for Bukit Barisan Selatan is much larger than previous estimates; the estimate for Way Kambas falls between previous estimates. The third population was much smaller and may not be viable. These are the first estimates for Southeast Asian elephant populations based on rigorous sampling-based methods that satisfied the assumptions of the models used, and they suggest that elephant numbers in these parks are of international importance. While our results suggest that Sumatra’s remaining elephant populations may be larger than expected, they also suggest that the future for these animals is bleak. Human-elephant conflict was reported around all three areas in Lampung and their elephant populations are currently threatened by habitat loss and poaching. Local solutions are possible, but will require much greater commitment by all stakeholders.     

一穴多株种植对夏玉米群体质量和产量的影响

增加种植密度是玉米高产的重要手段,但是种植密度的持续增加也带来一系列问题,其中高密群体的郁闭问题已成为限制进一步增加种植密度的主要因素之一。为缓解夏玉米高密度群体的郁闭状况,改善高密度种植下的玉米群体质量和产量形成,本试验在82 500株·hm?2密度下设置了一穴1株(P1)、一穴2株(P2)和一穴3株(P3)3个处理,分析了一穴多株对夏玉米各生育时期的叶面积、干物质、光合势、相对生长率、净同化率、作物生长速率、粒叶比和产量的影响。结果表明,与对照P1相比,P2和P3吐丝期单株叶面积分别增加10.7%~21.9%和7.3%~16.7%,吐丝后20 d分别增加13.5%~21.9%和9.4%~12.7%;P2和P3吐丝期和成熟期干物质积累显著高于P1(P0.05)。一穴多株种植提高了夏玉米6叶展以后的光合势,P2的提高幅度小于P3;P2、P3吐丝后20 d到成熟期相对生长率比P1分别高30.4%~190.7%和33.9%~183.5%,净同化率分别高16.1%~161.9%和30.7%~155.8%。采用一穴多株种植可以提高作物的生长速率、粒叶比和籽粒产量,P2和P3分别比P1增产5.8%~23.5%和4.9%~18.9%。粒重/叶面积、粒数/叶面积与籽粒产量呈显著直线正相关(R2=0.94,P0.000 1和R2=0.76,P0.001)。可见,在高密种植条件下,采用一穴多株种植可以改善夏玉米群体质量、提高产量。本研究推荐高密度下一穴2株种植方式。     

1992-2015年中亚五国LUCC特征及耕地驱动力研究

中亚五国地处亚欧大陆的中心地带,是"一带一路"重要的沿线节点之一。借助GIS空间统计分析方法,以欧洲太空局气候变化项目全球土地覆盖数据为基础,利用土地利用程度、动态度和转移矩阵对中亚五国1992—2015年土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)特征进行分析,并运用地理探测器对耕地驱动力进行深入研究。结果表明:1)1992—2015年,中亚五国的土地利用格局总体上表现为耕地和城镇用地持续增加,林地、草地和水域呈减少的趋势。耕地的增加主要来自林地(7.88万km~2)和草地(5.27万km~2)的转入,城镇用地的增加主要来自耕地(0.50万km~2)的转入,耕地是仅次于城镇用地增速较快、变化最为显著的土地利用类型;城镇用地在各国均呈现增加的趋势,耕地除乌兹别克斯坦之外,在其他4国均呈现增加的趋势。2)1992—2015年中亚五国土地利用程度总体呈缓慢上升趋势(土地利用程度综合指数从1992年的193.34增加到2015年的197.41),即土地利用处于发展阶段;土地利用程度为耕地林地草地未利用地水域城镇用地。3)地理探测器对耕地变化驱动因素的分析结果表明,自然因素中年平均降水量对耕地变化的作用较为显著,但在短时间内社会和农业因素发挥决定性的作用;因子探测表明人口总数(0.882)和农村人口(0.881)对耕地扩张的影响力最大,其次为粮食单产(0.746);交互探测表明各因子交互作用均为互相增强,其中,农村人口与粮食单产的叠加作用对耕地扩张的解释力度最大(0.972),影响耕地扩张的主要因素可归纳为人口增长和粮食单产提高。本研究可为中亚五国土地利用格局演变、区域土地利用规划和土地资源可持续利用提供决策支持。     

The effects of land use and climate on red kite distribution in the Iberian peninsula

The main breeding populations of the red kite (Milvus milvus L.), have been declining in the Iberian peninsula during the last decade. However, there is a lack of regional assessments of habitat suitability that identifies limiting ecological factors for the species and areas with conservation problems. In this work we present a regional model for the distribution and abundance of breeding red kites in the Iberian peninsula. The occurrence and estimated abundance in 100 km² UTM squares resulting from road censuses were modelled with broad-scale explanatory variables obtained from satellite imagery, thematic digital cartography, climatic data and spatial coordinates. The occurrence model incorporated mainly climatic variables and had a good discrimination ability, while the abundance model incorporated mainly land-use variables and had a lower explanatory power (r²=0.14). The predictions somewhat overestimated the results of the censuses, and this agrees with the decline of population size and range observed for this species in the Iberian peninsula. These models are relevant in the conservation of the species: first, they suggest the limiting factors for red kite in the Iberian peninsula, and, second, they generate predictive maps pointing out both areas in which conservation problems may be acute (suitable locations that are unoccupied), and areas where no data is available but the red kite is likely to be present (thus guiding further survey and research).