A study on relationships between large‐scale climate indices and estimates of North Pacific albacore tuna productivity

A logistic production model was used to examine potential relationships between three climate indices, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Multivariate El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), and productivity estimates of the North Pacific albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) population. Catch and standardized catch‐per‐unit‐effort data from three longline fisheries (Japan, US, and Taiwan) were used in the model. The climate indices were incorporated into the model by correlating time‐varying intrinsic population growth rate (r_y) of the production model with the annual mean value for each index. The estimated probability that the NPGO is positively correlated with stock productivity, as measured by r_y, was 0.99, and the calculated probability that MEI is negatively correlated with the productivity was 0.95. The time lag for these correlations is 4 yr, which is consistent with the timing of recruitment to the Japan longline fishery. The PDO did not seem to have any detectable relationship with stock productivity. However, it remains uncertain if there is a conclusive linkage between the albacore productivity and the NPGO or the MEI index, because model fit to the data is about the same as that of a base model which does not use any climate index and assumes a time‐invariant r.     

Juvenile chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) growth on the central California coast during the 1998 El Niño and 1999 La Niña

We assessed growth in subyearling chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) during the 1998 El Niño and 1999 La Niña in the Gulf of the Farallones, a region of the continental shelf off central California seaward of the Golden Gate and the southernmost ocean entry point for the species in North America. Juvenile salmon demonstrated greater growth during this strong El Niño, when water temperature anomalies of more than +3°C were recorded at local buoys, than during the similarly strong 1999 La Niña. Slopes of regressions of weight on length, length on age, and weight on age were all significantly greater for juvenile salmon during the 1998 El Niño compared with those in the 1999 La Niña. Daily otolith increment widths, an estimator of somatic growth, corroborated population data. Between June 1 and August 9, mean increment widths for juvenile chinook salmon in 1998 were 3.54 ± 0.03 μm, significantly larger than the 3.13 ± 0.03 μm found in juveniles during the same time interval in 1999. Condition factor for juvenile chinook salmon entering the ocean at the Golden Gate was the same in both years, but became significantly greater in ocean fish during the 1998 El Niño than in ocean fish during the 1999 La Niña. Energy storage was significantly greater in ocean juvenile salmon during the 1998 El Niño as well. Mean triacylglycerol/cholesterol ratios increased following ocean entry in 1998, whereas they declined in ocean juveniles during 1999. Thus, not only was growth better in the El Niño period compared with La Niña, but lipid accumulation was also better. Oceanographic data for 1998 indicated elevated temperatures, lower salinity, greater freshwater outflow from San Francisco Bay, northerly flowing coastal currents, and positive upwelling index anomalies. This combination of environmental factors resulted in greater zooplankton productivity that, in conjunction with higher temperatures, allowed metabolic processes to enhance growth. Although El Niño events have certainly produced large-scale, and often adverse, effects on ecosystems, the results of this study emphasize the importance of local oceanographic conditions to growth and other physiological and ecological processes.     

Marine environment‐based forecasting of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) adult recruitment

Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to investigate the relationships between annual recruitment of natural coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) from Oregon coastal rivers and indices of the physical ocean environment. Nine indices were examined, ranging from large‐scale ocean indicators, e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), to indicators of the local ecosystem (e.g., coastal water temperature near Charleston, OR). Generalized additive models with two and three predictor variables were evaluated using a set of performance metrics aimed at quantifying model skill in short‐term (approximately 1 yr) forecasting. High explanatory power and promising forecast skill resulted when the spring/summer PDO averaged over the 4 yr prior to the return year was used to explain a low‐frequency (multi‐year) pattern in recruitment and one or two additional variables accounted for year‐to‐year deviations from the low‐frequency pattern. More variance was explained when averaging the predictions from a set of models (i.e., taking the ensemble mean) than by any single model. Making multiple forecasts from a set of models also provided a range of possible outcomes that reflected, to some degree, the uncertainty in our understanding of how salmon productivity is driven by physical ocean conditions.     

Change in feeding ecology and trophic dynamics of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in the central Gulf of Alaska in relation to climate events

The effects of climate events on the feeding ecology and trophic dynamics of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in offshore waters of the central Gulf of Alaska were investigated during early summers (1994–2000), based on analyses of stomach contents, and carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N). Gonatid squids (mainly Berryteuthis anonychus) were the dominant prey of all salmon species except for chum salmon (O. keta). During the 1997 El Niño event and the 1999 La Niña event, squids decreased sharply in the diets of all Pacific salmon except coho salmon (O. kisutch) in the Subarctic Current, and chum salmon diets changed from gelatinous zooplankton (1995–97) to a more diverse array of zooplankton species. A δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N analysis indicated that all salmon species occupied the same branch of the food web in 1999–2000. We hypothesize that high‐seas salmon adapt to climate‐induced changes in their prey resources by switching their diets either within or between trophic levels. To understand the effects of climate change on Pacific salmon in the Gulf of Alaska, biological oceanographic research on B. anonychus and other important prey resources is needed.     

Spatial distribution of ocean habitat of yearling Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) salmon off Washington and Oregon,USA

We determined the habitat usage and habitat connectivity of juvenile Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) salmon in continental shelf waters off Washington and Oregon, based on samples collected every June for 9 yr (1998–2006). Habitat usage and connectivity were evaluated using SeaWiFS satellite‐derived chlorophyll a data and water depth. Logistic regression models were developed for both species, and habitats were first classified using a threshold value estimated from a receiver operating characteristic curve. A Bernoulli random process using catch probabilities from observed data, i.e. the frequency of occurrence of a fish divided by the number of times a station was surveyed, was applied to reclassify stations. Zero‐catch probabilities of yearling Chinook and yearling coho salmon decreased with increases in chlorophyll a concentration, and with decreases in water depth. From 1998 to 2006, ～ 47% of stations surveyed were classified as unfavorable habitat for yearling Chinook salmon and ～ 53% for yearling coho salmon. Potentially favorable habitat varied among years and ranged from 9 856 to 15 120 km² (Chinook) and from 14 800 to 16 736 km² (coho). For both species, the smallest habitat area occurred in 1998, an El Niño year. Favorable habitats for yearling Chinook salmon were more isolated in 1998 and 2005 than in other years. Both species had larger and more continuous favorable habitat areas along the Washington coast than along the Oregon coast. The favorable habitats were also larger and more continuous nearshore than offshore for both species. Further investigations on large‐scale transport, mesoscale physical features, and prey and predator availability in the study area are necessary to explain the spatial arrangement of juvenile salmon habitats in continental shelf waters.     

Influences of ocean conditions and feeding ecology on the survival of juvenile Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

Recruitment variability in many fish populations is postulated to be influenced by climatic and oceanographic variability. However, a mechanistic understanding of the influence of specific variables on recruitment is generally lacking. Feeding ecology is one possible mechanism that more directly links ocean conditions and recruitment. We test this mechanism using juvenile Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) collected off the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada, in 2000–2009. Stable isotopes of carbon (δ¹³C), an indicator of temperature or primary productivity, and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N), an indicator of trophic position, were taken from muscle tissues of genetically stock‐identified salmon. We also collated large‐scale climate indices (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation), local climate variables (e.g., sea surface temperature) and copepod community composition across these years. We used a Bayesian network to determine how ocean conditions influenced feeding ecology, and subsequent survival rates. We found that smolt survival of Chinook Salmon is predicted by their δ¹³C value, but not their δ¹⁵N. In turn, large‐scale climate variability determined the δ¹³C values of salmon, thus linking climate to survival through feeding ecology, likely through qualities propagated from the base of the food chain.     

Copepods and salmon: characterizing the spatial distribution of juvenile salmon along the Washington and Oregon coast,USA

Yearling Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) were sampled concurrently with physical variables (temperature, salinity, depth) and biological variables (chlorophyll a concentration and copepod abundance) along the Washington and Oregon coast in June 1998–2008. Copepod species were divided into four different groups based on their water‐type affinities: cold neritic, subarctic oceanic, warm neritic, and warm oceanic. Generalized linear mixed models were used to quantify the relationship between the abundance of these four different copepod groups and the abundance of juvenile salmon. The relationships between juvenile salmon and different copepod groups were further validated using regression analysis of annual mean juvenile salmon abundance versus the mean abundance of the copepod groups. Yearling Chinook salmon abundance was negatively correlated with warm oceanic copepods, warm neritic copepods, and bottom depth, and positively correlated with cold neritic copepods, subarctic copepods, and chlorophyll a concentration. The selected habitat variables explained 67% of the variation in yearling Chinook abundance. Yearling coho salmon abundance was negatively correlated with warm oceanic copepods, warm neritic copepods, and bottom depth, and positively correlated with temperature. The selected habitat variables explained 40% of the variation in yearling coho abundance. Results suggest that copepod communities can be used to characterize spatio‐temporal patterns of abundance of juvenile salmon, i.e., large‐scale interannual variations in ocean conditions (warm versus cold years) and inshore‐offshore (cross‐shelf) gradients in the abundance of juvenile salmon can be characterized by differences in the abundance of copepod species with various water mass affinities.     

El Niño effects in the Palmyra Atoll region: oceanographic changes and bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) catch rate variability

A generalized additive model (GAM) was constructed to separate and quantify the effects of fishery‐based (operational) and oceanographic parameters on the bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) catch rates at Palmyra Atoll in the central Tropical Pacific. Bigeye catch, the number of hooks per set, and set location from 4884 longline sets spanning January 1994 to December 2003 were used with a temporally corresponding El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicator built from sea surface height (SSH) data. Observations of environmental data combined with the results from the GAM indicated that there is an increase in bigeye catch rates corresponding to an increase in eastward advection during the winter months of El Niño events. A seasonal pattern with higher bigeye catch rates from December to April and a spatial pattern with higher rates to the northeast and northwest of the atoll were observed during this study period. It is hypothesized that the combination of the eastward advection of the warm pool coupled with vertical changes in temperature during the winter months of El Niño events increases the availability of bigeye tuna in this region. This increase in availability may be due to a change in exploitable population size, location, or both.     

Time‐varying relationships between ocean conditions and sockeye salmon productivity

Environmental change is occurring at unprecedented rates in many marine ecosystems. Yet, environmental effects on fish populations are commonly assumed to be constant across time. In this study, I tested whether relationships between ocean conditions and productivity of North American sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks have changed over the past six decades. Specifically, I evaluated the evidence for non‐stationary relationships between three widely used ocean indices and productivity of 45 sockeye salmon stocks using hierarchical Bayesian models. The ocean indices investigated were the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), and sea surface temperature (SST). I found partial support for time‐varying salmon–ocean relationships. Non‐stationary relationships were strongest for the NPGO and weaker for the SST and PDO indices. Productivity–NPGO correlations tended to shift gradually over time with opposite trends for stocks in British Columbia (B.C.) and western Alaska; for B.C. stocks, the NPGO correlations shifted from significantly negative prior to 1980 to significantly positive after 1990, whereas for western Alaska stocks, the correlations shifted from positive to negative. Productivity–SST correlations showed declining trends for B.C. and Gulf of Alaska stocks, that is, correlations became more negative (B.C.) or less positive (Gulf of Alaska) over time. For the PDO, correlations weakened during the 1980s for western Alaska and B.C. stocks. Overall, these results provide evidence for time‐varying relationships between salmon productivity and environmental conditions over six decades, highlighting the need to recognize that historical responses of salmon populations to environmental change may not be indicative of future responses.     

Impact of spring upwelling variability off southern‐central Chile on common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) recruitment

Off southern‐central Chile, the impact of spring upwelling variability on common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) recruitment was examined by analyzing satellite and coastal station winds, satellite chlorophyll, and common sardine recruitment from a stock assessment model. In austral spring, the intensity of wind‐driven upwelling is related to sea surface temperature (SST) from the Niño 3.4 region, being weak during warm periods (El Niño) and strong during cold periods (La Niña). Interannual changes in both spring upwelling intensity and SST from the Niño 3.4 region are related to changes in remotely sensed chlorophyll over the continental shelf. In turn, year‐to‐year changes in coastal chlorophyll are tightly coupled to common sardine recruitment. We propose that, in the period 1991–2004, interannual changes in the intensity of spring upwelling affected the abundance and availability of planktonic food for common sardine, and consequently determined pre‐recruit survival and recruitment strength. However, the importance of density‐dependent factors on the reproductive dynamic cannot be neglected, as a negative association exists between spawning biomass and recruitment‐per‐spawning biomass. Coastal chlorophyll, upwelling intensity, and SST anomalies from the Niño 3.4 region could potentially help to predict common sardine recruitment scenarios under strong spring upwelling and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐related anomalies.     

From small-scale habitat loopholes to decadal cycles: a habitat-based hypothesis explaining fluctuation in pelagic fish populations off Peru

The Peru‐Humboldt Current system (HCS) supports the world's largest pelagic fisheries. Among the world's eastern boundary current systems, it is the most exposed to high climatic stress and is directly affected by El Niño and La Niña events. In this volatile ecosystem, fish have been led to develop adaptive strategies in space and time. In this paper, we attempt to understand the mechanisms underlying such strategies, focusing on the El Niño 1997–98 in Peru from which an extensive set of hydrographic, capture and acoustic survey data are available. An integrated analysis of the data is crucial, as each has substantial shortcomings individually; for example, both catch data and acoustic surveys may easily lead to wrong conclusions. Existing hypotheses on anchovy and sardine alternations lead us to a ‘habitat‐based’ synthetic hypothesis. Using our data, an integrated approach evaluated how fish responded to habitat variation, and determined the consequences in terms of fish‐population variability. Various factors occurring at a range of different spatio‐temporal scales were considered: interdecadal regime (warm ‘El Viejo’/cool ‘La Vieja’ decadal scale); strength and the duration of the El Niño Southern Oscillation event (interannual scale); population condition before the event (interannual scale); fishing pressure and other predation (annual scale); changes in reproductive behaviour (intra‐annual scale); presence of local upwelling (local scale). During El Niño 1997–98, anchovy was able to exploit a small‐scale temporal and spatial ‘loophole’ inside the general unfavourable conditions. Moreover, sardine did not do better than anchovy during this El Niño and was not able to take advantage of the ‘loophole’ opened by this short‐term event. Our results question the traditional view that El Niño is bad for anchovy and good for sardine.     

The effects of the 1983 El Niño on Oregon's Coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and Chinook (O. tshawytscha) Salmon

The 1983 El Niño event off the Pacific Coast of North America resulted in increased adult mortality and decreased average size for Oregon's coho and chinook salmon. Actual return of adult coho salmon to the Oregon Production Area in 1983 was only 42% of the pre-season prediction. Coho smolts entering the ocean in the spring of 1983 also survived poorly, resulting in low adult returns again in 1984. Abundance of chinook stocks in southern Oregon was also reduced, as was abundance of Columbia River chinook stocks that show localized ocean distribution. Northerly migrating chinook stocks from the Columbia River showed little or no decline in abundance. The average weight of coho and chinook salmon landed in 1983 by Oregon's commercial troll fishery was the lowest recorded since statistics were first recorded in 1952. Comparison of the length-weight relationship for these fish indicated coho and chinook were in poorer condition in 1983 than in non-El Niño years. Because adult coho salmon returned to hatcheries at a smaller size, the fecundity (eggs per female) in 1983 was reduced from the 1978–1982 average by 24% at coastal hatcheries and by 27% at Columbia River hatcheries. The fecundity of chinook salmon was unchanged at most hatcheries.     

Fluctuation in the distribution of low-salinity water in the North Equatorial Current and its effect on the larval transport of the Japanese eel

Surface water in the North Equatorial Current (NEC) is composed of southern low‐salinity water diluted by precipitation to less than 34.2 psu and northern, high‐salinity tropical water greater than 34.8 psu. Analyses of 27‐year historical data, observed in winter and summer along the longitude 137°E by the Japan Meteorological Agency, shows that an obvious salinity front (34.5 psu) generated by the two water masses was usually located around 15°N. However, the salinity front has been moving northward during the past three decades. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affected salinity in the surface layer, while temperature changed in the middle layer. The salinity front sometimes moved southward, mainly south of 5°N, and the movement was well correlated with the southern oscillation index (SOI). Because precipitation at Yap (9.5°N, 138.1°E) fluctuated with SOI, this spike‐like southward movement of the salinity front was probably affected by reduction of low‐salinity water during El Niño in the north‐western Pacific Ocean. However, ENSO only induced such large southward movements of the salinity front when the time lag between the low precipitation and low SOI was short (within four months). This salinity front is quite important for long‐distance migrating fish such as the Japanese eel because the eels spawn just south of the salinity front in the NEC. This behaviour suggests that the movement of the salinity front associated with ENSO may control the success of larval transport from the spawning ground in the NEC to the nursery ground in East Asia. In fact, catch of the Japanese eel larvae in Japan was well correlated with fluctuation of SOI and the location of the salinity front, and lower catch occurred during El Niño. The salinity front has moved from 13°N to 17°N during the past three decades. Considering that conditions of larval transport are worse north of 15°N, we suggest that decadal‐scale linear decrease of glass eel catch during the past three decades also can be explained by the displacement of the salinity front.     

Early ocean distribution of juvenile Chinook salmon in an upwelling ecosystem

Extreme variability in abundance of California salmon populations is often ascribed to ocean conditions, yet relatively little is known about their marine life history. To investigate which ocean conditions influence their distribution and abundance, we surveyed juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) within the California Current (central California [37°30′N) to Newport, Oregon (44°00′N]) for a 2‐week period over three summers (2010–2012). At each station, we measured chlorophyll‐a as an indicator of primary productivity, acoustic‐based metrics of zooplankton density as an indicator of potential prey availability and physical characteristics such as bottom depth, temperature and salinity. We also measured fork lengths and collected genetic samples from each salmon that was caught. Genetic stock identification revealed that the majority of juvenile salmon were from the Central Valley and the Klamath Basin (91–98%). We constructed generalized logistic‐linear negative binomial hurdle models and chose the best model(s) using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to determine which covariates influenced the salmon presence and, at locations where salmon were present, determined the variables that influenced their abundance. The probability of salmon presence was highest in shallower waters with a high chlorophyll‐a concentration and close to an individual's natal river. Catch abundance was primarily influenced by year, mean fork length and proximity to natal rivers. At the scale of sampling stations, presence and abundance were not related to acoustic indices of zooplankton density. In the weeks to months after ocean entry, California's juvenile Chinook salmon population appears to be primarily constrained to coastal waters near natal river outlets.     

Ocean distribution and habitat associations of yearling coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and Chinook (O. tshawytscha) salmon in the northern California Current

Yearling juvenile coho and Chinook salmon were sampled on 28 cruises in June and September 1981–85 and 1998–07 in continental shelf and oceanic waters off the Pacific Northwest. Oceanographic variables measured included temperature, salinity, water depth, and chlorophyll concentration (all cruises) and copepod biomass during the cruises from 1998–07. Juvenile salmonids were found almost exclusively in continental shelf waters, and showed a patchy distribution: half were collected in ～5% of the collections and none were collected in ～40% of the collections. Variance‐to‐mean ratios of the catches were high, also indicating patchy spatial distributions for both species. The salmon were most abundant in the vicinity of the Columbia River and the Washington coast in June; by September, both were less abundant, although still found mainly off Washington. In June, the geographic center‐of‐mass of the distribution for each species was located off Grays Harbor, WA, near the northern end of our sampling grid, but in September, it shifted southward and inshore. Coho salmon ranged further offshore than Chinook salmon: in June, the average median depth where they were caught was 85.6 and 55.0 m, respectively, and in September it was 65.5 and 43.7 m, respectively. Abundances of both species were significantly correlated with water depth (negatively), chlorophyll (positively) and copepod biomass (positively). Abundances of yearling Chinook salmon, but not of yearling coho salmon, were correlated with temperature (negatively). We discuss the potential role of coastal upwelling, submarine canyons and krill in determining the spatial distributions of the salmon.     

A model‐based meso‐zooplankton production index and its relation to the ocean survival of juvenile coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch)

The ocean survival of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) off the Pacific Northwest coast has been related to oceanographic conditions regulating lower trophic level production during their first year at sea. Coastal upwelling is recognized as the primary driver of seasonal plankton production but as a single index upwelling intensity has been an inconsistent predictor of coho salmon survival. Our goal was to develop a model of upwelling‐driven meso‐zooplankton production for the Oregon shelf ecosystem that was more immediately linked to the feeding conditions experienced by juvenile salmon than a purely physical index. The model consisted of a medium‐complexity plankton model linked to a simple one‐dimensional, cross‐shelf upwelling model. The plankton model described the dynamics of nitrate, ammonium, small and large phytoplankton, meso‐zooplankton (copepods), and detritus. The model was run from 1996 to 2007 and evaluated on an interannual scale against time‐series observations of copepod biomass. The model’s ability to capture observed interannual variability improved substantially when the copepod community size distribution was taken into account each season. The meso‐zooplankton production index was significantly correlated with the ocean survival of hatchery coho salmon from the Oregon production area, although the coastal upwelling index that drove the model was not itself correlated with survival. Meso‐zooplankton production within the summer quarter (July–September) was more strongly correlated with coho survival than was meso‐zooplankton production in the spring quarter (April–June).     

Climate effects on size‐at‐age and growth rate of Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Fraser River,Canada

Decline in size‐at‐age of Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) has been observed for many populations across the entire Northeast Pacific Ocean, and identifying external drivers of this decline is important for sustainable management of these ecologically, economically, and culturally valuable resources. We assessed size‐at‐age of 96,939 Chinook Salmon sampled in the Fraser River watershed (Canada) from 1969 to 2017. A broad decline in size‐at‐age was confirmed across all population aggregates of Fraser River Chinook Salmon, in particular since year 2000. By developing a novel probability‐based approach to calculate age‐ and year‐specific growth rates for Fraser River Chinook Salmon and relating growth rates to environmental conditions in specific years through a machine learning method (boosted regression trees), we were able to disentangle multi‐year effects on size‐at‐age and thus identify environmental factors that were most related to the observed size‐at‐age of Chinook Salmon. Among 10 selected environmental variables, ocean salinity at Entrance Island in spring, the Aleutian Low Pressure Index and the North Pacific Current Bifurcation Index were consistently identified as important contributors for four of the seven age and population aggregate combinations. These top environmental contributors could be incorporated into future stock assessment and forecast models to improve Chinook Salmon fisheries management under climate change.     

北太平洋小型中上层鱼类资源对气候–海洋变化的响应研究进展

小型中上层鱼类是北太平洋海域重要的渔业资源,具有生命周期短、生长速度快、高集群性等特点,其资源年间波动显著,且受气候-海洋变化的影响。本文围绕秋刀鱼（Coloabis saira）、鲣（Katsuwonus pelamis）、鲐（Scomber japonicus）、鳀（Engraulis japonious）、竹䇲鱼（Trachurus japonicus）、沙丁鱼（Sardinops sagax）6种主要的小型中上层鱼类,回顾了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（El Niño/La Niña-southern oscillation,ENSO）、太平洋年代际振荡（the Pacific decadal oscillation,PDO）、黑潮-亲潮（Kuroshio-Oyashio,KR-OY）等关键气候-海洋指数的特点及对鱼类栖息地环境和资源变动的影响。概括了气候-海洋变化对小型中上层鱼类的洄游分布和资源丰度的直接影响过程,以及对亲体繁殖产卵、仔稚体成活率和资源量波动间接的滞后影响过程。建议：（1）在多种气候-海洋指数基础上添加种群动态过程、捕捞方式系数、自然死亡率等参数构建生物量动态模型,揭示气候-海洋变化对渔业资源量的影响过程;（2）结合北太平洋涛动（North Pacific oscillation,NPO）、北极涛动（Arctic oscillation,AO）、北太平洋环流振荡（North Pacific gyre oscillation,NPGO）等其他北太平洋主要气候,基于物理海洋模型及空间耦合水动力学模型研究大尺度海流、中尺度涡旋对小型中上层鱼类影响。