Recent variability in the southern oscillation: isotopic results from a tarawa atoll coral

In the western tropical Pacific, the interannual migration of the Indonesian Low convective system causes changes in rainfall that dominate the regional signature of the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system. A 96-year oxygen isotope record from a Tarawa Atoll coral (1 degrees N, 172 degrees E) reflects regional convective activity through rainfall-induced salinity changes. This monthly resolution record spans twice the length of the local climatological record and provides a history of ENSO variability comparable in quality with those derived from instrumental climate data. Comparison of this coral record with a historical chronology of EI Ni?o events indicates that climate anomalies in coastal South America are occasionally decoupled from Pacific-wide ENSO extremes. Spectral analysis suggests that the distribution of variance in this record has shifted among annual to interannual periods during the present century, concurrent with observed changes in the strength of the Southern Oscillation.     

Tropical pacific forcing of decadal SST variability in the western indian ocean over the past two centuries

A 194-year annual record of skeletal delta(18)O from a coral growing at Malindi, Kenya, preserves a history of sea surface temperature (SST) change that is coherent with instrumental and proxy records of tropical Pacific climate variability over interannual to decadal periods. This variability is superimposed on a warming of as much as 1.3 degrees C since the early 1800s. These results suggest that the tropical Pacific imparts substantial decadal climate variability to the western Indian Ocean and, by implication, may force decadal variability in other regions with strong El Nino-Southern Oscillation teleconnections.     

Interannual variability of atmospheric methane: possible effects of the el nino--southern oscillation

Nearly continuous measurements at Cape Meares, Oregon, revealed that methane was increasing in the earth's atmosphere and that its concentration varied cyclically with the seasons. After 6 years of measurements, results show that the rate of increase in methane undergoes interannual variations; the most prominent of these coincided with the last major El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation, when methane concentrations fell far below expected levels. One of the consequences of the interannual variability is that the long-term rate of increase at Cape Meares is now about 16 parts per billion by volume per year, or about 1 percent annually, which is significantly less than that indicated by the earliest calculations.     

Reduced interannual rainfall variability in East Africa during the last ice age

Interannual rainfall variations in equatorial East Africa are tightly linked to the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with more rain and flooding during El Ni?o and droughts in La Ni?a years, both having severe impacts on human habitation and food security. Here we report evidence from an annually laminated lake sediment record from southeastern Kenya for interannual to centennial-scale changes in ENSO-related rainfall variability during the last three millennia and for reductions in both the mean rate and the variability of rainfall in East Africa during the Last Glacial period. Climate model simulations support forward extrapolation from these lake sediment data that future warming will intensify the interannual variability of East Africa's rainfall.     

A theory for el nino and the southern oscillation

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model is presented for El Ni?o and the Southern Oscillation that reproduces its major features, including its recurrence at irregular intervals. The interannual El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation cycle is maintained by deterministic interactions in the tropical Pacific region. Ocean dynamics alter sea-surface temperature, changing the atmospheric heating; the resulting changes in surface wind alter the ocean dynamics. Annually varying mean conditions largely determine the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of El Ni?o events.     

Mechanism of the Zonal Displacements of the Pacific Warm Pool: Implications for ENSO

The western equatorial Pacific warm pool is subject to strong east-west migrations on interannual time scales in phase with the Southern Oscillation Index. The dominance of surface zonal advection in this migration is demonstrated with four different current data sets and three ocean models. The eastward advection of warm and less saline water from the western Pacific together with the westward advection of cold and more saline water from the central-eastern Pacific induces a convergence of water masses at the eastern edge of the warm pool and a well-defined salinity front. The location of this convergence is zonally displaced in association with El Nino-La Nina wind-driven surface current variations. These advective processes and water-mass convergences have significant implications for understanding and simulating coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).     

El Nino-like climate teleconnections in new england during the late pleistocene

A glacial varve chronology from New England spanning the 4000-year period from 17,500 to 13,500 calendar years before the present was analyzed for evidence of climate variability during the late Pleistocene. The chronology shows a distinct interannual (3 to 5 years) band of enhanced variability suggestive of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections into North America during the late Pleistocene, when the Laurentide ice sheet was near its maximum extent and climatic boundary conditions were different than those of today. This interannual variability largely disappears by the young end of the 4000-year chronology, with only the highest frequency components (roughly 3-year period) persisting. This record provides evidence of ENSO-like climate variability during near-peak glacial conditions.     

Cholera dynamics and El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Analysis of a monthly 18-year cholera time series from Bangladesh shows that the temporal variability of cholera exhibits an interannual component at the dominant frequency of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results from nonlinear time series analysis support a role for both ENSO and previous disease levels in the dynamics of cholera. Cholera patterns are linked to the previously described changes in the atmospheric circulation of south Asia and, consistent with these changes, to regional temperature anomalies.     

El nino-southern oscillation displacements of the Western equatorial pacific warm pool

The western equatorial Pacific warm pool (sea-surface temperatures >29 degrees C) was observed to migrate eastward across the date line during the 1986-1987 El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation event. Direct velocity measurements made in the upper ocean from 1986 to 1988 indicate that this migration was associated with a prolonged reversal in the South Equatorial Current forced by a large-scale relaxation ofthe trade winds. The data suggest that wind-forced zonal advection plays an important role in the thermodynamics of the western Pacific warm pool on interannual time scales.     

The evolution of climate over the last millennium

Knowledge of past climate variability is crucial for understanding and modeling current and future climate trends. This article reviews present knowledge of changes in temperatures and two major circulation features-El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-over much of the last 1000 years, mainly on the basis of high-resolution paleoclimate records. Average temperatures during the last three decades were likely the warmest of the last millennium, about 0.2 degrees C warmer than during warm periods in the 11th and 12th centuries. The 20th century experienced the strongest warming trend of the millennium (about 0.6 degrees C per century). Some recent changes in ENSO may have been unique since 1800, whereas the recent trend to more positive NAO values may have occurred several times since 1500. Uncertainties will only be reduced through more extensive spatial sampling of diverse proxy climatic records.     

冬季北大西洋涛动与我国天气气候的关系

利用1951～2008年2月全球月平均海平面气压资料,计算了冬季北大西洋涛动指数（NAOI）。研究表明,NAOI存在间隔不定的周期现象,并且与厄尔尼诺存在着密切的关联。通过NAOI与我国各月气温和降水的相关分析,发现冬季NAOI与我国冬季的降水和气温相关性很强,夏季次之,春季和秋季较差;除春季外,在其余季节NAOI与我国气温的相关性要远大于与降水的相关性。     

冀南地区冬季负积温特征及趋势分析

利用冀南地区1975～2009年16个气象站≤0℃的日平均气温资料,采用趋势分析和小波分析等方法,分析了冀南地区冬季负积温的时空变化情况。结果表明,冀南地区冬季负积温随纬度和海拔高度的升高而增加;负积温的年际变化明显,近35年来负积温总体呈下降趋势;负积温变化主要存在4和8年的周期性振荡。     

一类具有可变时滞的非线性中立型差分方程的振动性

考虑一类具有可变时滞的非线性非自治中立型差分方程，得到了这类方程的振动准则及这类方程存在最终正解的充分条件。     

近111年来东亚夏季风的变异及其与中国降水的关系

根据1899-2009年北半球月平均海平面气压场资料,计算近111年来东亚夏季风强度指数,分析了东亚夏季风的年代际及年际变化特征。结果表明,20世纪20年代东亚夏季风达最强,80年代中期以后东亚夏季风强度一直呈减弱趋势,其中21世纪初达最弱。Morlet小波分析发现,东亚夏季风年代际及年际变化中存在准10年和准2年显著性周期。我国东部降水的年际变化与东亚夏季风的强度变化密切相关,强（弱）东亚夏季风年份,长江中下游地区降水量比常年偏少（偏多）;而华北地区降水量比常年偏多（偏少）。东亚夏季风减弱是造成20世纪80年代中期以后华北地区干旱少雨,长江中下游地区洪涝多雨的一个重要原因。     

Dynamical response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to solar forcing during the early Holocene

We present a high-resolution magnesium/calcium proxy record of Holocene sea surface temperature (SST) from off the west coast of Baja California Sur, Mexico, a region where interannual SST variability is dominated today by the influence of the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Temperatures were lowest during the early to middle Holocene, consistent with documented eastern equatorial Pacific cooling and numerical model simulations of orbital forcing into a La Ni?a-like state at that time. The early Holocene SSTs were also characterized by millennial-scale fluctuations that correlate with cosmogenic nuclide proxies of solar variability, with inferred solar minima corresponding to El Ni?o-like (warm) conditions, in apparent agreement with the theoretical "ocean dynamical thermostat" response of ENSO to exogenous radiative forcing.     

Variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation through a glacial-interglacial cycle

The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most potent source of interannual climate variability. Uncertainty surrounding the impact of greenhouse warming on ENSO strength and frequency has stimulated efforts to develop a better understanding of the sensitivity of ENSO to climate change. Here we use annually banded corals from Papua New Guinea to show that ENSO has existed for the past 130,000 years, operating even during "glacial" times of substantially reduced regional and global temperature and changed solar forcing. However, we also find that during the 20th century ENSO has been strong compared with ENSO of previous cool (glacial) and warm (interglacial) times. The observed pattern of change in amplitude may be due to the combined effects of ENSO dampening during cool glacial conditions and ENSO forcing by precessional orbital variations.     

Florida current: seasonal and interannual variability

Annual and interannual variations in the Florida Current, Caribbean, and subtropical Atlantic are investigated with the use of historical sea level differences and wind field data. Observational and model evidence suggests that the seasonal transport cycle of the Florida Current is locally forced, either upstream in the Caribbean or downstream over topography. Although at seasonal and shorter periods sea level or bottom pressure fluctuations on the left side of the Florida Current contribute almost all of the variance of sea level difference across the Florida Straits and hence transport, this relation does not seem to apply at interannual time scales. Using results from the Subtropical Atlantic Climate Studies, it is estimated from historical sea level data that interannual transport fluctuations of the Florida Current are only of order 1 x 10(6) cubic meters per second. Interannual fluctuations in the 2- to 3-year period range in the Florida Straits seem to be correlated with sea level differences across the Caribbean and the subtropical Atlantic but not with Sverdrup transport fluctuations in the subtropical Atlantic.     

Forecasting fire season severity in South America using sea surface temperature anomalies

Fires in South America cause forest degradation and contribute to carbon emissions associated with land use change. We investigated the relationship between year-to-year changes in fire activity in South America and sea surface temperatures. We found that the Oceanic Ni?o Index was correlated with interannual fire activity in the eastern Amazon, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index was more closely linked with fires in the southern and southwestern Amazon. Combining these two climate indices, we developed an empirical model to forecast regional fire season severity with lead times of 3 to 5 months. Our approach may contribute to the development of an early warning system for anticipating the vulnerability of Amazon forests to fires, thus enabling more effective management with benefits for climate and air quality.     

新标准下湖南梅雨的划分及其气候特征

根据中国气象局2014年印发的《梅雨监测业务规定》中区域梅雨特征量划分标准,利用1960—2014年湖南梅雨监测区20站逐日气象资料,计算了湖南梅雨监测区1960—2014年的梅雨期入梅、出梅日期,以及梅雨期长度、梅雨量、梅雨强度等梅雨特征量,分析了梅雨特征量的气候特征以及与长江中下游型梅雨的关系。结果表明,湖南梅雨各特征量存在显著的年际变化特征,但各特征量在不同时段具有不同的变化趋势;湖南湘中以北地区梅雨是客观存在的,梅雨特征量能较好地反映监测区域的夏季雨季特征,且与长江中下游型梅雨有密切的联系。     

宁夏西吉干旱变化规律及旱情缓解天气形势分析

[目的]分析研究西北地区历次特大干旱的开端-宁夏西吉县干旱暴雨等极端天气气候事件的变化规律。[方法]用降水距平百分率划分干旱等级并进行统计分析;用季节指数、线形趋势、5年滑动反映干旱变化趋势;时间序列的循环波动用多项式模拟年代际尺度变化,多项式分解的正数部分用柱形图模拟年际尺度变化。[结果]11～6月干旱季节指数大且波动变化;年干旱的总变化趋势呈上升,年代际尺度的干旱以1977年前后最为严重,有约15年、20年的周期,年际尺度的干旱近年急剧上升;对3～5月、9～11月干旱的总趋势、年代际尺度、年际尺度的变化进行了分析讨论。从500 hPa高空天气图上对西吉第一场透雨、久旱转雨天气形势进行了归类分型。[结论]这些工作对开展干旱防灾减灾具有重要的参考价值。