气象因子对云南大理森林火灾的影响

本文选用2001年-2010年大理州的森林火灾次数与对应的气象数据进行统计分析,通过分析大理州森林火灾的时间分布及对应的气候特征,得出了火灾次数与气温和风速呈正相关、与相对湿度呈负相关的结论。用森林火灾次数与气象因子进行相关分析,结果表明月平均最高气温、平均相对湿度和平均最大风速与月火灾次数显著相关;旬平均最高气温、平均相对湿度和平均最大风速以及前两旬的累计降水量与旬火灾次数显著相关;日最高气温、平均相对湿度、最大风速和前15日累计降水量与日火灾次数显著相关。综合分析表明气温、降水、相对湿度和风速与大理州森林火灾次数有明显的相关性,气温、风速与火灾次数呈正相关,降水、相对湿度与火灾次数呈负相关。     

湖南省森林火险天气等级预测模型研究

为提高湖南省森林火险天气等级预测精度,降低空报和漏报比例,基于湖南省各县2005—2015年森林火灾数据及各县气象站对应的同期气象资料,利用变异系数方法确定了日最高气温、风速、相对湿度、降雨量等天气因子的分段区域,设定了各区域的得分值,并运用主成分分析方法确定了不同分段区域对湖南省森林火灾的影响权重,建立了加权森林火险天气指数模型,根据天气指数确定森林火险天气等级。经2015年森林火灾数据验证模型精度达到了74.2%,表明了该森林火险天气等级预测模型具有适用价值。     

武鸣县2001～2006年森林火灾数据的全回归分析与线性拟合

通过对广西武鸣县2001～2006年森林火灾资料的综合分析,发现当地森林火灾多发生在每年的9月至次年的1月,火灾多发生于每日的14～16时,起火原因多为人为原因,占83.3%.利用SPSS统计软件对广西武鸣县历年森林火灾及其对应的气象资料进行数据筛选和全回归分析,并对日最高气温、相对湿度、连续无雨日数、风速、林龄及火灾发生的月份进行线性拟合,建立了这六要素的森林火险天气预报模型.     

澄城县森林火险等级预报方法

通过分析认为森林火灾发生与否,发生后的蔓延和扩大与气象条件关系密切,并根据澄城县实际情况,筛选出日最高气温、最小相对湿度和24小时降水量作为森林火险等级预报的因子、风作为林火等级核查因子,确定森林火险等级和林火蔓延等级。经过近一年在实际工作中的运用,效果不错,能够较好的对林火天气预报预测。     

大兴安岭东部森林火灾发生的气候条件辨识

就大兴安岭东部森林火灾发生的气候条件进行了风险辨识,结论是:空气湿度是火险天气中的关键因素,相关系数为-0.81,表明湿度愈大火灾发生次数愈少,空气湿度小于60%时,就有发生森林火灾的可能,当相对湿度在35%￣50%之间时火灾发生次数较多。气温与森林火灾相关系数仅为0.36,当最高温度在-10￣10℃时是火灾发生的高峰期。风是森林火灾发生蔓延的重要因素,相关系数高达0.92。发生火灾时,当风速大于2.5m/s时,火灾蔓延开始加大。雷击火发生和蔓延的气候指标是平均气温为14￣20℃,降水量小于7mm,14时相对湿度15%￣38%,雷暴日数多于4天,平均风速2.5￣5.5m/s,14时风速大于3m/s。本着适用及着眼于近期与长远计划相结合的原则,选用了春季小于10mm降水日数、春季平均气温、地理因子、受灾面积、雷击火次数等7个因子进行了聚类分型,将火灾划分为3个区。     

基于粒子群算法和BP神经网络的多因素林火等级预测模型

针对现有小尺度林火预测模型预测结果有效性、可扩展性等方面的不足,通过考虑多种火险因素,构建BP神经网络预测模型以提高预测精度,在此基础上借助粒子群算法加快BP神经网络收敛速度,进而提出一种混成的多因素森林火险等级预测模型particle swarm optimization based back-propagation neural network (PSO-BP)。所构建的预测模型,能够同时考虑气候因素(日最高气温、日平均气温、24 h降水量、连旱天数、日照时数、日平均相对湿度、日平均风速)、地形地貌因素(海拔、坡度、坡向、土壤含水量)、可燃物因素(植被类型、可燃物含水率、地被物载量)、人为因素(人口密度、距人类活动区域的距离) 16个变量。基于南京林业大学下蜀林场森林防火实验站传感器网络所采集的实际数据及现场测量数据,通过一组试验验证提出模型的有效性。结果表明:基于训练数据集及检验样本所构建的模型能够开展有效的火险等级预测;模型的计算复杂度较单独使用BP神经网络模型明显下降。     

浙江省森林火险天气的预测预报

对浙江省10个典型县(市)森林火灾资料和相应气象要素值的调查收集,经综合分析,选择相对湿度、降水量、风速、温差、气温和风向6个因子的预报值,并按此计算火险天气等级的回归方程及修正值。据此,将浙江省的森林火险天气分为3大片按5个等级进行预测预报。     

山西省林火驱动因子及分布格局研究

【目的】研究山西省的林火驱动因子和火险分布格局,可为山西省森林防火工作提供参考。【方法】使用2010—2017年卫星监测热点数据,基于逻辑斯蒂模型和随机森林模型分析气象、地形、植被和人类活动对山西省林火发生的影响,选取山西省主要林火驱动因子,建立林火发生概率模型,并基于最优模型结果绘制山西省森林火险等级区划图,分析山西省森林火险分布格局。【结果】逻辑斯蒂模型选取的山西省主要林火驱动因子有日平均相对湿度、日照时数、日平均气温、日平均风速、海拔、坡度、距道路距离、距居民区距离;随机森林模型选取的山西省主要林火驱动因子有日平均地表气温、日平均气压、日平均相对湿度、日照时数、日平均气温、日平均风速、季度NDVI和GDP;逻辑斯蒂模型的预测准确率在84.31%～86.33%之间,随机森林模型的预测准确率在88.98%～94.37%之间。【结论】山西省主要林火驱动因子为气象因子;随机森林模型比逻辑斯蒂模型更适用于山西省林火发生概率的预测;山西省森林火险分布有明显的季节和地域差异,春季的高火险区明显多于其它季节,东部的高火险区多于西部,阳泉市、长治市、晋城市、忻州市东部、晋中市北部、吕梁市东南部和太原市中部是山西省主要高火险区。     

基于空间logistic的湖南省森林火灾风险评价

【目的】为科学地预防森林火灾和进行应急资源配置,运用空间logistic森林火灾风险概率模型对湖南省森林火灾风险等级进行划分,为县级以下区域进行森林火灾风险区划提供技术方法。【方法】采用logistic回归分析方法,利用湖南省2008—2018年的地表温度数据、植被指数数据、气象数据、人文数据、植被类型数据、森林火灾监测数据等,构建森林火灾风险概率模型,通过森林火灾风险概率分布区间对森林火灾风险等级进行划分。【结果】建立的湖南省空间logistic森林火灾风险概率模型拟合效果较好,在0.05的显著性水平下,经混合检验和Wald检验,logistic森林火灾风险概率模型能显著反映森林火险发生概率;模型相对运行特征(ROC)值为0.779;经栅格图层计算得到湖南省森林火灾风险概率值,并根据概率大小将湖南省森林火险分为极低、低、中、高和极高5个等级。湖南省森林火灾风险概率≥0.6的极高森林火险等级和高森林火险等级主要分布在邵阳市、衡阳市、永州市、株洲南部以及郴州市部分地区;中森林火险等级主要分布在怀化市、娄底市、湘潭市以及长沙市;低森林火险等级和极低森林火险等级主要分布在吉首市、常德市、张家界市、益阳市以及岳阳市。影响湖南省森林火险等级的主要因子为温度植被干旱指数(TVDI)、高程(GC)、年平均温度(TEM),其中TVDI因子的影响最为显著。【结论】构建的空间logistic森林火灾风险概率模型能够科学有效地对湖南省森林火灾风险等级进行划分,为森林火灾的预防和应急资源配置提供科学依据。     

内蒙古巴林右旗森林火险等级评价及火险区划研究

以内蒙古巴林右旗为研究区域,依据中国林业行业标准《全国森林火险区划等级》(LY/T1063-2008),选取树种燃烧类别、人口密度、路网密度、防火期月平均降水量、气温、以及风速等6项火险因子数据,运用数理统计方法和聚类分析法得出各个苏木乡镇的森林火险等级并完成火险区划。结果表明:1)幸福之路苏木拥有1个国家级自然保护区,幸福之路苏木火险等级提高一级为Ⅱ级,其他地区为Ⅲ级;2)进行聚类分析,按照火险程度由高到低分为3类,索博日嘎镇和大板镇为聚类1,查干沐沦苏木为聚类2,其他地区为聚类3。研究巴林右旗地区的森林火险等级并进行火险区划,有利于减少当地森林火灾导致的生命和财产损失。     

Browsing Damage on Pine (Pinus sylvestris and P. contorta) by a migrating moose (Alces alces) Population in Winter: Relation to Habitat Composition and Road Barriers

In Scandinavia, moose (Alces alces L.) sometimes cause severe browsing damage to economically-important pine. Moose-vehicle accidents have spurred construction of fences along roads, and these may interfere with moose migration between summer and winter ranges, or the road alone may be a barrier. If this happens and moose build up along roads, landowners may suffer economically. Therefore, this study investigated whether roads, fences or other factors influence the use of young pine stands by moose. Eighty stands along roads in northern Sweden were evaluated in which individually-browsed branches were counted on 9972 pines. Moose browsing was not significantly related to birch (Betula pendula Roth, B. pubescens Ehrh.) density, nor did it differ between pines (Pinus contorta Douglas or P. sylvestris L.). However, increased pine density, site productivity and proximity to a highway were associated with increased browsing. Further large-scale studies are needed to understand moose habitat selection and the effects of roads.     

Effects of Root Freezing on the Physiology and Growth of Picea glauca,Picea mariana and Pinus banksiana Seedlings Under Different Soil Moisture Regimes

The root systems of 2-yr-old Picea glauca, Picea mariana and Pinus banksiana seedlings were submitted to various frost temperatures during an artificial frost to induce different levels of root damage. Frost-damaged and control seedlings were placed in a greenhouse under high and low soil moisture regimes. Seedling growth and physiology were evaluated periodically. Seedling survival was reduced when root damage reached levels of 60-80%. Root systems of all three species showed partial to total recovery by the end of the experiment. In general, root freezing damage caused reductions in seedling growth, with these reductions becoming less significant over time. Root damage had little to no effect on black spruce and jack pine seedling physiology, while white spruce CO 2 uptake decreased with increasing root damage. Shoot nitrogen content of all three species decreased slightly with increasing root damage.     

Decomposition and nutrient loss from prunings of different contour hedgerow species in tea plantations in the sloping highlands of Sri Lanka

Contour hedgerows of multipurpose tree species in the sloping tea lands of Sri Lanka are expected to reduce soil erosion and also add significant amounts of plant nutrients to the soil via periodic prunings. The objective of this experiment was to characterize the biomass decomposition pattern and quantify the amount of nutrients added through prunings of six tree species (Calliandra calothyrsus, Senna spectabilis, Euphatorium innulifolium, Flemingia congesta, Gliricidia sepium and Tithonia diversifolia) currently being used in hedgerows associated with tea. Withered leaf and stem prunings (50 g) were enclosed in 2-mm litter bags, placed at 5-cm depth and retrieved after one, three, six, nine and 12 weeks. Loss of initial dry weight, N, P and K was measured. Single exponential decay function adequately described both dry weight and nutrient loss. Tree species differed significantly in their rate of breakdown with decomposition constants (k) varying from 0.0299 to 0.2006 week⁻¹ for leaves and from 0.0225 to 0.0633 week⁻¹ for stems. Gliricidia showed the highest k for leaves with the rest in the following descending order: Senna > Tithonia ≥ Euphatorium > Calliandra > Flemingia. A similar pattern was observed for loss of all nutrients with Calliandra and Flemingia always having lower k values than the rest. Although N immobilization was not observed, immobilization of P and K was observed during the first week of incubation in some species, particularly in stem prunings. Annual biomass of prunings differed significantly between tree species in the following descending order: Calliandra > Senna > Flemingia > Tithonia > Gliricidia > Euphatorium. Calliandra added the greatest amount of nutrients annually to the soil with Euphatorium adding the least. Calliandra prunings provided the annual total K requirement and 49% of the N requirement of mature tea. However, none of the species provided more than 5% of the P requirement. It is concluded that among the tree species tested, Calliandra and Flemingia are the most suitable for contour hedgerows in tea plantations of this agroclimatic region because of their higher soil nutrient enrichment capacity and slower decomposition rates which would minimize leaching losses. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Effects of Seed Weight and Seed Type on Early Seedling Growth of Pinus sylvestris under Harsh and Optimal Conditions

The effects of seed weight and seed type on seedling growth of Pinus sylvestris (L.) were studied by seeding individually weighed orchard and stand seed in different mixtures under harsh (direct seeding in field) and optimal (seeding in nursery) conditions. In the nursery experiment an increase in the seed weight from 3 to 7 mg increased the seedling height by 10-27% and total weight by 27-113%, and decreased the height/diameter ratio by 5-6% after 2 yrs. With elimination of seed weight effects, orchard seedlings were 2% taller than stand seedlings in year 2. Without elimination of seed weight effects, orchard seedlings were 7-13% taller. In the field experiment an increase in the seed weight from 3 to 7 mg increased seedling height by 18-65%, stem volume by 81-274% and the number of top-buds by 23-34% in year 5. After elimination of seed weight effects, orchard seedlings were 7-13% taller than stand seedlings and without elimination of seed weight effects 20-21% taller after 5 yrs. Even after elimination of both seed weight and genetic effects orchard seedlings were 3-9% larger than stand seedlings in the field experiment. In conclusion, the influence of seed weight and seed type on growth traits and slenderness is highly significant and the influence seems to be greater in harsh conditions.     

Potential to harness superior nutritional qualities of exotic baobabs if local adaptation can be conferred through grafting

Baobab leaves form an important part of the local diet in Sahel countries and elsewhere in Africa. Existing leaf nutritional data and agroforestry performance information are based solely on Adansonia digitata L., the baobab of continental Africa. The introduction potential of Adansonia species from the center of diversity in Madagascar and from Australia remains untapped. To assess this potential, the mineral contents and B₁ and B₂ vitamin levels of dried baobab leaves were determined for five-year old trees of A. digitata, A. gibbosa (A. Cunn.) Guymer ex D. Baum, A. rubrostipa Jum. & H. Perrier (syn. A. fony Baill.), A. perrieri Capuron and A. za Baill. grown in an introduction trial in Mali. Nutritional data were evaluated against survival and vigor to identify promising germplasm. Leaf vitamin and crude protein contents were highest in the Madagascar species, especially A. rubrostipa (B₁ 88 mg 100 g⁻¹, B₂ 187 mg 100 g⁻¹, protein 20.7% dry weight). However, the local species far outperformed the introductions in survival, tree height, basal diameter and resistance to termites. We suggest grafting as a way of harnessing the vigor of well-adapted local baobab varieties to the superior nutritional profiles of A. rubrostipa and others. Cross-species grafting tests in Adansonia were successful, thus creating new agroforestry possibilities with different scion/rootstock combinations.     

Modelling of adequate pretwist for obtaining straight timber

Abstract

Wood in general and wooden studs in particular are often distorted owing to uneven shrinkage during the drying process in the sawmill. Twist is often the most detrimental of all types of distortion, and it is caused by spiral grain in combination with variations in moisture content. For sawmills, the objective is to produce dried, straight boards, and one method of dealing with boards with excessive spiral grain is to sort them out and then dry them in a pretwisted position to obtain straight boards after drying. A model using the finite element (FE) method for the simulation of drying twist distortions was first calibrated against laboratory experiments in which boards were dried with and without restraints and pretwists. After the calibration, the FE results were compared with industrial test results for boards that were dried without restraints or with restraints with zero pretwist, i.e. straight restraints. The FE model used an elastic–ideally plastic material model to obtain permanent deformations. The calibration was to set the yield stresses so that there was a good match between FE results and results from the laboratory experiments. The comparison between the industrial test results and the FE results showed that the FE model is capable of realistic simulations of drying boards with and without restraints and presumably also pretwists.     

Growth of Phlebiopsis gigantea in wood of seven conifer species

Heterobasidion parviporum and Heterobasidion annosum are widely distributed root‐rot fungi that infect conifers throughout Europe. Infection of conifer stumps by spores of these pathogens can be controlled by treating fresh stumps with a competing non‐pathogenic fungus, Phlebiopsis gigantea. In this study, growth of three Latvian strains of P. gigantea and the biological control agent ‘Rotstop’ strain was evaluated in stem pieces of Norway spruce, Scots pine, lodgepole pine, Douglas‐fir, Weymouth pine, Siberian larch and Sitka spruce. The growth rates of one H. parviporum and one H. annosum isolate were also measured in the same stem pieces. The growth rate of P. gigantea varied greatly in wood of different conifer species. It was higher in the three pine species, lower in Norway spruce and lowest in Sitka spruce and Siberian larch, and in Douglas‐fir, this fungus did not grow. The largest area of wood occupied by P. gigantea was in lodgepole pine. Growth of Latvian isolates of P. gigantea in the wood of Pinus and Picea species was comparable to that of the Rotstop isolate. Consequently, stump treatment with local P. gigantea isolates should be recommended. However, our results suggest that Douglas‐fir stump treatment against Heterobasidion by P. gigantea may be ineffective and other stump treatment methods should be considered.     

Stand Structure in Pine,Spruce and Deciduous Forests: A Comparison Between Finnish and Russian Karelia

This study investigated the stand structure in pine, spruce and deciduous forests in the border district of Finland and Russia. A total of 46 mature forest stands was selected as pairs, the members of each pair being as similar as possible with respect to their forest site type, age, moisture and topography. The stands were then compared between the two countries by means of basal areas and number of stems. The proportions of dominating tree species were 2-12% lower, and correspondingly the proportions of secondary tree species higher, in Russian forests. The density of the forest stock was also higher in each forest type in Russia. The forests in the two countries differed most radically in terms of the abundance of dead trees. The amount was two to four times higher in Russian deciduous and spruce forests, and in pine forests the difference was 10-fold. The stand structures indicated that Russian coniferous stands, in particular, were more heterogeneous than intensively managed pine and spruce stands in Finland.     

Growth and Terminal Bud Formation in Picea abies Seedlings Grown with Alternating Diurnal Temperature and Different Light Qualities

The root collar diameter and the height:diameter ratio are of particular importance in container-grown seedlings where a high density in the containers may produce spindly seedlings. Temperature regimes and light quality are known to affect plant growth. The aim of this study was to identify responses in Picea abies (L.) Karst. seedlings grown with light providing different red:far-red ratios and under temperature regimes with alternating day (DT) and night temperature (NT) from negative (DT < NT) to positive (DT > NT) difference (DIF) between DT and NT. Experiments were conducted in controlled environment chambers and in a daylight phytotron. Only limited thermoperiodic responses appeared in P . abies seedlings with respect to seedling height and dry weight accumulation. The formation of terminal buds, however, was clearly delayed in seedlings grown at negative DIF. The results indicate a requirement for day extension light that is high in far-red, to prevent terminal bud formation under natural short-day conditions. An extended study should be conducted to clarify the minimum level of light intensity and the optimal light quality needed to prevent terminal bud formation under natural short-day conditions.     

CAD与建筑设计的关系

本文分析了CAD在设计中引起的正面和负面影响,并进行了系统的阐述,从而使设计者在应用中能够保持客观的态度。