Terrestrial ecosystem sensitivity to acidic deposition in developing countries

Acidic deposition is considered a problem in Europe and North America but the potential for ecosystem damage from this pollution is also increasing rapidly in many developing countries. It is therefore important to assess current and future risks of ecosystem effects due to acidic deposition in these areas. It is possible to indicate risk areas by linking an assessment of sensitivity to net acidic input rates derived from deposition estimates for sulphur and nitrogen compounds and base cations. A method to assess and map a relative scale of terrestrial ecosystem sensitivity using international datasets is presented. The assessment relies on the determination of buffering mechanisms that prevent effects related to acidic deposition. Land-cover data, edaphic and climate datasets are combined using a GIS. Large areas are assessed as highly sensitive to acidic deposition in tropical regions of Asia, South and Central America and Africa, and also in the Boreal forests of northern Asia. Sensitive areas cover forest and non-forest ecosystems and some areas of agricultural production. Critical loads are not evaluated in this project but initial estimates will be applied to sensitivity classes at a further stage which will allow estimation of areas at risk by comparison with deposition.     

Deriving critical loads for Asia

Critical loads have been computed and mapped in Southeast Asia, comprising China, Korea, Japan, The Philippines, Indo-China, Indonesia and the Indian subcontinent. The methodology involved the Steady-State Mass Balance (SSMB) method, originally developed for Europe. In contrast to Europe, where critical loads were computed for forest soils and surface waters, in Asia critical loads for 31 different vegetation types have been computed. Critical chemical limits as well as soil stability criteria were derived for each of these vegetation types, which include both natural and managed ecosystems. Results show that low critical loads in Asia occur in Bangla-Desh, Indo-China, Indonesia and the southern part of China. Uncertainties of the results are mainly due to uncertainties in base cation deposition. The critical loads are part of the impact module of the Asian version of the Regional Air pollution INformation and Simulation model (RAINS-Asia), a model used to assess abatement strategies for sulfur emissions which are rapidly increasing in this part of the world. The difference in the level of detail between European and Asian critical load maps enables different applications. In Europe, critical loads for sulphur were used in comparison to actual sulphur deposition with the aim of decreasing the excess of sulphur deposition over critical loads through optimal emission abatement. In Asia in general and China in particular the geographical distribution of critical loads of sensitive ecosystems, with some emphasis on crops, is likely to be used as a basis for future emission (re-)allocation.     

Critical loads for nitrogen deposition for Great Britain

There is currently much interest in mapping critical loads for nitrogen deposition as part of a strategy for controlling nitrogen emissions. While nitrogen deposition may cause acidification and excess nutrient effects, the former were considered previously in studies of sulphur deposition. In the UK, work on developing nutrient nitrogen critical loads maps has used several methods and databases. Two approaches are described here, one a steady state calculation using a nitrogen saturation limit for soil systems, the other an empirical estimate of critical loads set to prevent changes to vegetation communities. The empirical method uses national species records and land cover data derived from satellite imagery. Maps drawn from the available data are dependent upon a number of factors which reflect the approach used. To apply the nutrient critical loads to a strategy for future abatement measures, the nutrient nitrogen values for soils have been incorporated within a “critical loads function” which takes into account both acidity and nutrient effects as related to deposition loads for sulphur and nitrogen. This function may be used with deposition data to identify the need for sulphur and nitrogen emission reductions.     

Effects of Environmental Stress on Forest Crown Condition in Europe. Part III: Estimation of Critical Deposition and Concentration Levels and Their Exceedances

The stress by air pollution at the systematicPan-European 16 × 16 km² forest (crown) condition monitoring network, is discussed by comparingsite-specific estimates of critical and presentconcentration and deposition levels for S and Ncompounds and ozone. Results indicate that theexceedance of critical levels, related to directabove-ground impacts, decrease going from O₃ >SO₂ > N compounds. Critical N loads related toeffects on the forest understorey are exceeded atapproximately 25% of the plots, located mainly inWestern and Central Europe. Critical N loads relatedto effects on trees are hardly ever exceeded, but mostlikely, this is an under estimate. Critical aciddeposition levels are exceeded at approximately 30%of the plots with a low base saturation, where acidinputs may release toxic Al. This is especially thecase in Central and Eastern Europe, where presentloads are high and in boreal forest in SouthernScandinavia where critical loads are low. Although theuncertainties in the calculated exceedances is large,the spatial pattern, which is most important for acorrelative study, seems reliable, implying that thecritical load concept is suitable for regional risk assessments.     

Estimating uncertainty in the current critical loads exceedance models

The critical loads approach to quantifying areas at risk of damage requires deposition and critical loads data at the same spatial scale to calculate exceedance. While maps of critical loads for soil acidification are available at a 1 km scale no monitoring networks in Europe measure wet and dry inputs at this scale and, further, the models currently used to estimate deposition incorporate a number of assumptions which are not valid at the 1 km scale. Simulations of 1 km deposition from 20 km data show that the uncertainty introduced by using 20 km scale estimates of deposition is small, except in mountain areas where it can give misleading results, but a major problem is the uncertainty in estimates of deposition at the 20 km scale produced by the current models.     

Long-Term Soil Acidification Model (LTSAM) Development and Application for Analyzing Soil Responses to Acidic Deposition

A long-term soil acidification model (LTSAM) which can describe calcareous and non-calcareous soil responses to acidic deposition is developed based on the conservation of alkalinity and Ulrich buffer ranges. The model which considers nine major ions of armospheric deposition, has focused on certain soil processes (weathering of carbonates, silicates, and aluminum (Al) oxides or hydroxides, cation exchange, anion retention, and CO2 solubility). After comparing the model design and simulation results with the SMART, the paper describes several numerical experiments on the sensitivity of calcareous drab soil in Beijing and red earth (nearly dystric cambisol) in Wenzhou of Zhejiang Province in Southern China to acidic deposition scenarios. The modelling results indicate that increase or decrease in atmospheric deposition of base cations and not only changes in deposition of sulfate (S) and H+ must be considered in assessment of critical loads both for red earth and calcareous drab soil.     

Modelling Impacts of Atmospheric Deposition,Nutrient Cycling and Soil Weathering on the Sustainability of Nine Forest Ecosystems

To assess the impact of acid deposition on the long-term sustainability of nine oak, pine and spruce stands on sandy to loamy sandy parent material in Sweden, Denmark and The Netherlands, a dynamic soil acidification model (ReSAM) was applied. Two deposition scenarios for the period 1990–2090 were used: a business as usual scenario (BAU) and a restrictive critical load scenario (CL). The BAU scenario leads to a strong decrease in both Al concentrations and pH in the topsoil of the Dutch and the Danish sites due to a decrease in the amount of amorphous Al compounds. The decline in pH leads to an enhanced release of base cations by silicate weathering. Despite the ongoing acidification, base saturation increases during the simulation period, due to both the increase in base cation weathering and an increased input from mineralization with the ageing of the tree stands. No change in Al concentration is predicted for northern Sweden as deposition levels are below critical loads. Soil chemistry at the recently replanted Swedish sites is dominated by changes in N cycling instead of by deposition. The CL scenario leads, especially after 2010, to a stronger decline in Al concentration compared with the BAU scenario, which is mainly caused by a reduction of the acid input. Up to 2010, a considerable acid input to the soil system is maintained as N supply is larger than the consumption of N by the trees. Despite the reduction of the deposition of S and N to critical loads, the readily available cation pools are still declining on the Danish and Dutch sites in 2090. It is concluded that deposition levels above critical loads lead to exhaustion of the pool of amorphous Al compounds and a decline in pH. Base saturation does not decline due to an increase in mineralization with stand age and an increase in weathering rate due to the decline in pH.     

Base Cation Removal in Harvesting and Biological Limit Terms for Use in the Simple Mass Balance Equation to Calculate Critical Loads for Forest Soils

The Simple Mass Balance (SMB) equation allows critical loadsto be calculated for forest soils such that all the processesresponsible for acidification and buffering are considered(i.e acidic deposition, deposition of base cations andchloride, mineral weathering, base cation uptake and removalat harvest, nitrogen immobilisation, uptake anddenitrification, and acidity leached). The equation is nowused by 11 UNECE countries in mapping forest critical loadsfor consideration under the Convention on Long RangeTransboundary Air Pollution. In the work described here wehave put together suitable stemwood and bark nutrientconcentrations from the literature with new measurements inorder to calculate species' specific base cation removalterms. Critical loads are then calculated for Quercuspetraea, Pinus sylvestris and Picea sitchensis in order to determine the sensitivity of site critical load values to differences in base cation removal at harvest. The alternativeapproaches of using base cation to aluminium or calcium to aluminium for the biological limit term of the SMB equation arealso examined. Soil critical load values are shown to be influenced by the variability in both these terms, placing priority on the need for species and regional (or perhaps site)specific data similar to those presented here for the UK.     

A Global Analysis of Acidification and Eutrophication of Terrestrial Ecosystems

This paper presents an explorative, quantitative analysis of acidification and eutrophication of natural terrestrial ecosystems caused by excess sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition. The analysis is based on a steady-state approach, involving the comparison of deposition fluxes with critical loads to identify areas where critical loads are exceeded. Deposition fields for sulfur and nitrogen were obtained from the STOCHEM global chemistry-transport model, and they were combined with estimated base cation deposition to derive net acid deposition fluxes. The results indicate that the critical loads for acidification are exceeded in 7–17% of the global area of natural ecosystems. In addition, comparison of nitrogen deposition with critical loads for eutrophication yielded an exceedance in 7–18% of the global natural ecosystems. Apart from serious problems in the heavily industrialized regions of eastern USA, Europe, the former Soviet Union, and large parts of Asia, risks are also found in parts of South America, and West, East and Southern Africa. Both acidification and eutrophication risks could significantly increase in Asia, Africa and South America in the near future, and decrease in North America and Western Europe. Accounting for the effects of N in the analysis of acidification significantly enlarges the potentially affected areas and moves them away from highly industrialized areas compared to studies considering S deposition alone. Major uncertainties in the approach followed are associated with upscaling, the estimates of S, N and base cation emission and deposition fluxes, the critical loads to describe ecosystem vulnerability and the treatment of soil N immobilization and denitrification.     

Soil geochemistry in relation to water chemistry and sensitivity to acid deposition in Finnish Lapland

Ecosystems in Finnish Lapland are threatened by heavy metal pollution and acid deposition derived from emissions of Cu-Ni smelters in Kola Peninsula and to varying extent to pollution from southern Fennoscandian and Central European sources. Extensive chemical analyses of small lake waters collected in Finnish Lapland have demonstrated that a significant number of lakes are acidified (ANC < 0μcq/l) or their buffering capacity is critical (ANC = 0–50μe/l). The relative abundance of mafic, ultramafic and carbonate rock components in the catchment were the chief factors controlling ANC and the main base cation (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺) concentrations of lake waters. Both humic and clearwater lakes with low buffering capacity (ANC < 50μeq/l) were mainly located in the catchment areas identified as sensitive to acidification on the basis of low content of base cations (Ca²⁺ +Mg²⁺ +K⁺ < 500 meq/kg) in till. The ratio of the catchment area to the lake area was distinctly smaller for acidic lakes than for the well-buffered lakes, indicating the importance of catchment processes in determining the ANC and main base cations. The high sulphur concentrations (median 60μeq/1) of acidic lakes in northeastern Lapland, near the Finnish-Norwegian border, were strongly correlated with the highest deposition of sulphur derived from smelters of Kola Peninsula. The anomalously high concentrations of sulphur of well-buffered lakes in the western part of Lapland were due to sulphide minerals of soil and bedrock. The acidity of humic lakes in southern Lapland was in large part due to the organic acidity derived from peatlands.     

Application of the critical loads approach in South Africa

South Africa is the most industrialised country in southern Africa and stands at some risk from negative pollution impacts. To the authors' knowledge, this paper presents the first attempt to apply the critical loads approach on the African continent; although sensitivity mapping has been performed for Africa and the rest of the world (Kuylerstierna et al, this conference). Actual sulphate and base cation deposition loads in Mpumalanga (formerly the Eastern Transvaal province of South Africa) were mapped from 16 monitoring sites. The region is characterised by long, dry periods with little rain, high evaporation (up to 8 mm per day) and low run-off (15% of MAP). Provisional critical load and exceedance maps were produced for the surface waters using the Steady-State Water Chemistry Model and the Diatom model. Maps of soil sensitivity to acid deposition, based on bedrock lithology, soil chemical characteristics and land cover, were produced. A weathering rate of 0.39–0.86 keq/ha/year was calculated for the most sensitive sites and taken as the critical load, based on the assumption that the weathering rate represents the buffering ability of the system. The critical loads were contrasted with measures of actual deposition to examine potential scenario's for critical load exceedances. Akey factor in refining the sensitivity maps, and allowing estimation of the critical loads, is the accurate calculation of weathering rates under the warmer and more arid environmental conditions prevalent in South Africa. In a developing country such as South Africa, where research resources are limited, the critical loads approach is a valuable means of assessing the risk of potential impacts of atmospheric deposition.     

Long-Term Changes in Forest Growth: Potential Effects of Nitrogen Deposition and Acidification

In spite of numerous experimental studies, it has, sofar, not been possible to link historic changes inforest growth to acid deposition at regional scales,partly due to difficulties in modeling the ecologicalcomplexity of forests. We analyzed radial incrementdata from increment cores from >31 000 spruce forestplots in southern Norway from 1954–1996. Using acombination of a bio-stratification model to controlconfounding factors, and a catchment model foracidification, we demonstrate for the first time aspatial and temporal co-variation between forestgrowth and both nitrogen deposition and acidification,as indicated by acidity critical loads exceedances.Increases in growth during the 1960–1970s, followed bya subsequent decline in the 1980–1990s, were bestexplained by combined actions of acidification,nitrogen deposition and climatic stress on forestgrowth. While forest conditions varyprimarily with natural growing conditions, the resultssuggest that boreal forests are sensitive to moderatelevels of nitrogen and sulphur deposition whereacidity critical loads are low, and that effects maybe observed over relatively short time scales.     

Quantifying Uncertainty in Critical Loads: (A) Literature Review

Critical loads are the basis for policies controlling emissions of acidic substances in Europe. The implementation of these policies involves large expenditures, and it is reasonable for policymakers to ask what degree of certainty can be attached to the underlying critical load and exceedance estimates. This paper is a literature review of studies which attempt to estimate the uncertainty attached to critical loads. Critical load models and uncertainty analysis are briefly outlined. Most studies have used Monte Carlo analysis of some form to investigate the propagation of uncertainties in the definition of the input parameters through to uncertainties in critical loads. Though the input parameters are often poorly known, the critical load uncertainties are typically surprisingly small because of a “compensation of errors” mechanism. These results depend on the quality of the uncertainty estimates of the input parameters, and a “pedigree” classification for these is proposed. Sensitivity analysis shows that some input parameters are more important in influencing critical load uncertainty than others, but there have not been enough studies to form a general picture. Methods used for dealing with spatial variation are briefly discussed. Application of alternative models to the same site or modifications of existing models can lead to widely differing critical loads, indicating that research into the underlying science needs to continue.     

Critical loads of acid deposition on Scottish soils

The impact of acid deposition, attributable to sulphur and nitrogen pollutants, on the soils of Scotland has been analysed using a critical loads approach. The critical load of a soil (as an indicator of ecological damage) is calculated from the soil parent material controlling weathering and soil development. Using existing soil survey information national maps for critical loads of acidity and the sulphur fraction are presented for soils under natural and semi-natural ecosystems. The results show that highly sensitive soils, that is those derived from quartzite and granite are limited in occurrence. However, there are large areas of sensitive soils predominantly to the north and west of the Midland Valley and in the Southern Uplands, in receipt of acid deposition in excess of their critical load. Enhanced soil acidification should be widespread in these areas and consequently the ecosystems which they support will be adversely affected. The least sensitive soils, overlying limestone or marl, are restricted in occurrence and are confined to the major deposits of marine alluvium. The results of the analysis may be used to help policy makers derive emission abatement strategies in the context of the European Sulphur protocol renewal in 1993. In Scotland the maps may be used to aid the planning of large scale afforestation.     

Changes in soil chemistry accompanying acidification over more than 100 years under woodland and grass at Rothamsted Experimental Station, UK

We have examined the effect that acid deposition and other sources of acidity have had over the last 110–140 years on soil under woodland (Broadbalk and Geescroft Wildernesses) and grassland (Park Grass) comprising some of the Classical Experiments at Rothamsted Experimental Station. Changes in soil chemistry have been followed by analysing some of the unique archive of stored samples for pH, water-soluble and exchangeable base cations, aluminium, iron and manganese, exchangeable acidity, cation exchange capacity (CEC) and soluble anions. Proton balances and historical data show the importance of acid deposition to acidification and concomitant changes in the chemistry of the soil. The pH of the surface soil of Geescroft Wilderness has fallen from 6.2 to 3.8 since 1883. The decrease in the pH of the unlimed, unfertilized plot on Park Grass was less over a similar period (from pH 5.2 to 4.2), illustrating the significant effect of the woodland canopy on the interception of acidifying pollutants. The effect of increasing acidity on the soil chemistry of Geescroft Wilderness is seen in its decreasing base saturation and CEC, with base cations moving down the soil profile. Clay minerals are being irreversibly weathered, and Mn and Al progressively mobilized, so that today Al occupies 70% of the exchange complex in the surface soil. Even with present reductions in sulphur deposition critical loads for sulphur, nitrogen and acidity are still exceeded. Such semi-natural ecosystems are unsustainable under the current climate of pollution.     

Critical loads of acid deposition for forest ecosystems in the Kola Peninsula

We assessed critical loads of acid deposition and their exceedance for soils in the Kola Peninsula using a simple balance method and mapped them within 1.0° × 0.5° longitude/latitude grid cells. Critical loads of acidity vary from 200 to 800 mol_c/ha/y with the type of soil, parent rock, vegetation and climatic conditions. The critical deposition values are dominated by S contribution. Present sulphur depositions are higher than critical values in the large part of the Kola Peninsula (about 40% of total area). The greatest excess (800–1200 mol_c/ha/y) occur in north-western and western parts, especially in surroundings of nickel smelter in Nickel. Terrestrial ecosystems in the north-western Kola Peninsula are particularly susceptible to acid deposition damage due to relatively high soil sensitivity and heavy sulphur deposition.     

Effects of future N deposition scenarios on the Galloway region of SW Scotland using a coupled sulphur & nitrogen model (MAGIC-WAND)

The Galloway region of Southwest Scotland has been subject to decades of acidic deposition which has resulted in damage to soils, surface waters and aquatic biota. A survey of lochs was conducted in 1979, 1988, and 1993, over which time there have been dramatic changes in total sulphur and nitrogen deposition. The MAGIC model successfully reproduced the major chemical changes in water chemistry from 1979 to 1988 during which time there was a rapid decline in sulphur deposition. A new coupled sulphur and nitrogen model (MAGIC-WAND) has been used to evaluate the regional hydrochemical response to changing patterns of N & S deposition from the period 1988 to 1993. Details of the model structure and parameterisation are discussed. The model under-predicts the response of non-marine sulphate in the region suggesting that there has been a slight increase in deposition over this period. Future hydrochemical responses to different nitrogen deposition scenarios are presented, indicating that the potential increase of nitrogen in surface waters is closely linked to the age and extent of different mosaics of commercial afforestation within the individual catchments.     

Critical loads of sulfur and nitrogen for lakes II: Regional extent and variability in Finland

The concept of critical loads has been developed to assist in the design of environmentally sound abatement strategies for the emissions of acidifying compounds. In this paper the critical loads of S and N for lakes in Finland are computed and mapped, based on methods presented in an accompanying paper. The employed steady-state mass balance model allows the simultaneous evaluation of the reductions required of S and N deposition exceeding these critical loads. Special emphasis has been put on the presentation of the spatial variability and the uncertainty of the critical loads and their exceedances. The derived critical loads of S and N for lakes in Finland show a substantial spatial variability. The highest exceedance of critical loads is presently estimated in the south-east of the country, where up to 80% of the lakes show an exceedance of the critical loads of S. The evaluation of two emission scenarios shows that only “maximum feasible reductions” would be sufficient for protecting most Finnish lakes from the impacts of acidic deposition. The results of this study form a basis for setting national targets for emission reductions in Finland.     

Mapping of critical loads and levels for pollution damage to building materials in the United Kingdom

The United Kingdom National Materials Exposure Programme was initiated in 1986 to study the effects of acid deposition on building materials. The output data in the form of empirical dose-response equations (described elsewhere) have been incorporated into a geographical information system (GIS). In addition, data for the stock at risk of building materials has also been used. The dose-response relations indicate a dominance of dry deposition of sulphur dioxide in the decay process. Critical level/load maps have been determined for a number of materials. General pollution and meteorological data sets are also included in the mapping process. Maps give ‘exceedence squares’ on a 20 km square grid basis, indicating the unprotected areas or those still at risk for a given scenario for SO₂ reduction in the context of the UNECE protocol for sulphur. In order to derive maps of areas sensitive to pollutants in the future a model, HARM 7.2, is used for the prediction of distribution of emissions of pollutants in the UK. A series of maps has now been produced for different materials at 70% and 80% scenarios for the reduction of SO₂. Studies of the sensitivity of the exceedence maps to the accuracy or variation of the components in the dose-response equations have been undertaken. Results from the mapping programme and the sensitivity analysis are presented together with discussion of the concept of critical loads of materials.     

Assessment of critical loads in liuzhou,China using static and dynamic models

The project Comprehensive Control and Demonstration for Acid Deposition in Liuzbou area is a national key project in the 8th Five-year-plan, and the study on critical loads will provide scientific and quantitative accordance for formulating control strategy. In this paper, critical loads of acid deposition to soil in Lirzhou area, China, were calculated using the Steady State Mass Balance method (SMB and PROFILE) and dynamic modeling methods(MAGIC), based on data obtained from field investigations and physiochemical properties measured through experiments such as the organic content, cation exchange capacity, base saturation, sulfate adsorption capacity, gibbsite coefficient, biomass base cation uptake and selectivity coefficient for cations. Weathering rates necessary to calculate soil chemistry in applying SMB and MAGIC model were determined by computation with PROFILE using independent geophysical properties such as soil texture and mineralogy as the input data, or by the total soil base cation content correlation. The results have shown that the critical loads of acidity in this area are in the range of 0.7–6.0 keq ha^–1 yr^–1, indicating sulfur deposition should be cut down by 50–90 percent of the present level. The upper soil layer is the most sensitive. The maximum allowable deposition loading of this area is also presented in the paper.