不同空间分辨率驱动数据对作物模型区域模拟影响研究

为了探究不同空间分辨率驱动数据对作物模型区域模拟结果的影响,以中国北方冬麦区为研究区域,采用薄盘样条插值方法生成4种空间分辨率(5、10、25、50 km)的气象驱动数据,采用空间聚集方法构建相应空间分辨率的土壤参数集,以农业气象观测站数据为基础,通过泰森多边形方法扩展农田管理和作物模型品种参数,在以上基础上建立不同空间分辨率的WOFOST模拟平台,结合区域统计产量数据,诊断不同空间分辨率驱动数据对作物模型区域模拟的影响。研究表明:对于模拟的开花期、成熟期、潜在产量水平的地上生物量和穗质量、雨养产量水平的地上生物量和穗质量,4种空间分辨率的区域平均值模拟结果之间无显著差异;高分辨率驱动数据下,模拟结果分布上有更多的极值。不同空间分辨率的模拟结果均能反映冬小麦生长的空间分布规律;与同区域统计产量相比,不同空间分辨率下WOFOST雨养产量可以解释观测产量年际变异的75.4%~85.4%。不同空间分辨率的潜在产量和雨养产量与气候因子相关分析表明,生育期辐射可以解释16.6%~29.6%的潜在产量变化,生育期降水可以解释13.3%~17.8%的雨养产量变化。高空间分辨率的数据存贮量和计算时间分别是低空间分辨率的80和100倍以上。研究结果可以为作物模型区域应用,尤其是空间分辨率的选择提供理论依据。     

Regional crop modelling in Europe: The impact of climatic conditions and farm characteristics on maize yields

Impacts of climate variability and climate change on regional crop yields are commonly assessed using process-based crop models. These models, however, simulate potential and water limited yields, which do not always relate to observed yields. The latter are largely influenced by crop management, which varies by farm and region. Data on specific management strategies may be obtained at the field level, but at the regional level information about the diversity in management strategies is rarely available and difficult to be considered adequately in process-based crop models. Alternatively, understanding the factors influencing management may provide helpful information to improve simulations at the regional level.In this study, we aim to identify factors at the regional level that explain differences between observed and simulated yields. Observed yield data were provided by the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) and Eurostat. The Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS), based on the WOFOST model, was used to simulate potential and water limited maize yields in the EU15 (i.e., the old member states of the European Union). Differences between observed and simulated maize yields were analysed using regression models including: (i) climatic factors (temperature and precipitation), (ii) farm size, (iii) farm intensity, (iv) land use, (v) income and (vi) subsidies. We assumed that the highest yields observed in a region were close to the yield potential as determined by climate and considered the average regional yields as also influenced by management. Model performance was analysed with respect to spatial and temporal yield variability.Results indicate that for potential yield, the model performed unsatisfactory in southern regions, where high temperatures increased observed yields which was in contrast to model simulations. When considering management effects, we find that especially irrigation and the maize area explain much of the differences between observed and simulated yields across regions. Simulations of temporal yield variability also diverted from observed data of which about 80% could be explained by the climatic factors (35%) and farm characteristics (50%) considered in the analysis. However, effects of specific factors differed depending on the regions. Accordingly, we propose different groups of regions with factors related to management which should be considered to improve regional yield simulations with CGMS.     

基于植被指数的锡林河流域生物量动态遥感估算

本研究以地面样方调查结合2000-2013年MODIS—NDVI数据,建立样方生物量和遥感数据的关系模型,反演锡林河流域产草量的时空分布。研究结果表明：建立的植被指数模型相关系数达到0.6以上,模型精度为80%,线性模型作为遥感估测应用可行;锡林河流域年平均产草量鲜重为1001kg/hm2,空间分布呈现东南高-西北低的空间分布规律;2000-2013年,产草量年际间变化大,变异系数为51.6%,产草量总体呈波动上升趋势。锡林河流域草原产草量的时空变化与主要气候因素（气温、降水）关系密切,特别是受降水量的时空变化影响更为显著。本研究结论可以为有效地保护和利用草地资源、合理配置载畜量和恢复草原生态环境提供有效的技术支持和保障。     

Yield gap of rainfed rice in farmers’ fields in Central Java, Indonesia

Yield constraint analysis for rainfed rice at a research station gives insight into the relative role of occurring yield-limiting factors. However, soil nutrient status and water conditions along toposequences in rainfed farmers’ fields may differ from those at the research station. Therefore, yield constraints need to be analyzed in farmers’ fields in order to design management strategies to increase yield and yield stability.We applied production ecological concepts to analyze yield-limiting factors (water, N) on rice yields along toposequences in farmers’ fields using data from on-farm experiments conducted in 2000-2002 in Indonesia. Potential, water-limited, and N-limited yields were simulated using the ORYZA2000 crop growth model. Farmers’ fields showed large spatial and temporal variation in hydrology (354-1235 mm seasonal rainfall, −150 to 50 cm field-water depth) and fertilizer doses (76-166 N, 0-45 P, and 0-51 kg K ha⁻¹). Farmers’ yields ranged from 0.32 to 5.88 Mg ha⁻¹. The range in yield gap caused by water limitations was 0-28% and that caused by N limitations 35-63%, with large temporal and spatial variability.The relative limitations of water and N in farmers’ fields varied strongly among villages in rainfed rice areas and toposequence positions, with yield gaps due to water and N at the top and upper middle positions higher than at the lower middle and bottom toposequence positions, and yield gaps in late wet seasons higher than those in early wet seasons. Management options (e.g. crop establishment dates, shortening turnaround time, using varieties with shorter duration, supplemental irrigation) to help the late-season crop escape, or minimize the negative effects of, late-season droughts and supplying adequate N-fertilizer are important for increasing yield in rainfed lowland rice in Indonesia. More N-fertilizer should be given to upper toposequence positions than to lower positions because the former had a lower indigenous nutrient supply and hence a better response to N-fertilizer inputs. Systems approaches using production ecological concepts can be applied in yield constraint analysis for indentifying management strategies to increase yield and yield stability in farmers’ fields in other rainfed lowland areas.     

松嫩平原黑土区玉米穗质量构成要素的空间变异性研究

基于在松嫩平原黑土区获取的玉米穗质量构成要素(穗粒质量、穗轴质量、穗粒数、穗行数、行粒数、穗长、穗粗),利用传统统计学、多重分形和联合多重分形方法分析了玉米穗质量构成要素的空间变异性。结果表明,玉米穗粒质量、穗轴质量、穗粒数、穗行数、行粒数、穗长、穗粗的空间变异强度依次减弱,且穗粒质量和穗轴质量的变异程度为中等变异,穗粒数、穗行数、行粒数、穗长、穗粗的变异程度为弱变异;玉米穗轴质量和穗粒质量的多重分形特征最明显,行粒数、穗粗和穗长的多重分形特征最不明显,穗行数和穗粒数多重分形特征的明显程度介于上述两者之间;穗行数的空间变异性主要是由高值信息造成,而行粒数、穗轴质量、穗粒质量、穗粒数、穗粗、穗长的空间变异性主要由低值信息引起;单一尺度和多尺度上,穗粗、穗轴质量、穗长、穗粒数、行粒数、穗行数对穗粒质量空间变异性的影响程度排序有所差异,穗粒质量与穗长、穗粗、穗粒数、穗行数、穗轴质量、行粒数在多尺度上的相关程度明显大于在单一尺度上的相关程度。     

土壤空间变异对水氮淋失和产量影响的模拟研究

基于CERES-Maize模型,研究了土壤空间变异和水文年型对半干旱地区土壤水氮淋失和玉米产量的影响.结果表明,土壤空间变异对作物产量和土壤水氮淋失的影响程度与降雨密切相关.丰水年水氮淋失量显著高于平水年和枯水年.降雨对作物产量和农田尺度水氮淋失的空间变异有明显影响,并能在一定程度上减弱土壤空间变异对产量和农田尺度水氮淋失的影响.随着土壤空间变异程度的增大,产量降低,产量的空间变异程度增加.水分渗漏和氮淋失量随土壤空间变异的增加呈增加趋势.当土壤黏粒和粉粒含量变异系数CV≥0.2时,在水氮管理中考虑土壤空间变异有利于提高作物产量,减轻水氮淋失.     

Simulation of furrow irrigation practices (SOFIP): a field-scale modelling of water management and crop yield for furrow irrigation

Because of the spatial and temporal variabilities of the advance infiltration process, furrow irrigation investigations should not be limited to a single furrow irrigation event when using a modelling approach. The paper deals with the development and application of simulation of furrow irrigation practices (SOFIP), a model used to analyse furrow irrigation practices that take into account spatial and temporal variabilities of the advance infiltration process. SOFIP can be used to compare alternative furrow irrigation management strategies and find options that mitigate local deep-percolation risks while ensuring a crop yield level that is acceptable to the farmer. The model is comprised of three distinct modelling elements. The first element is RAIEOPT, a hydraulic model that predicts the advance infiltration process. Infiltration prediction in RAIEOPT depends on a soil moisture deficit parameter. PILOTE, a crop model, which is designed to simulate soil water balance and predict yield values, updates the soil moisture parameter. This parameter is an input of a parameter generator (PG), the third model component, which in turn provides RAIEOPT with the data required to simulate irrigation at the scale of an N-furrow set. The study of sources of variability and their impact on irrigation advance, based on field observations, allowed us to build a robust PG. Model applications show that irrigation practices must account for inter-furrow advance variability when optimising furrow irrigation systems. The impact of advance variability on deep percolation and crop yield losses depends on both climatic conditions and irrigation practices.     

The use of remote sensing for estimating ET of irrigated wheat and cotton in Northwest Mexico

Components of a satellite-based system for estimating the crop water requirements of irrigated vegetation have been combined, applied, and tested against field data in the Yaqui Valley, northwest Mexico. Frequent satellite observations have the potential to provide snap shots of cloud variability at the high spatial and temporal resolutions that are needed for making simple, near real-time estimates of incoming solar radiation and, thus, daytime evaporation required for irrigation scheduling. Less frequent polar orbiting satellites offer the capacity of following the vegetation development at higher spatial resolution. The operational framework for obtaining cloud cover has been developed and applied using hourly sampled, 1 km resolution, GOES-10 data received in real-time. The high-resolution, cloud-screening algorithm has proved to be efficient and reliable and has been used to provide high-resolution (4 km) estimates of solar radiation. Relationships between vegetation indices (NDVI and SAVI) and crop coefficients (the ratio of measured to reference evapotranspiration) have been derived with four different models (Shuttleworth, Penman, Priestley–Taylor and Makkink), using ground-based surface reflectance measured over the crop. Continuous measurements of surface fluxes and other meteorological variables were made following almost the entire vegetative cycle of the plant using a station equipped with standard meteorological instruments and an eddy-correlation system. Actual evapotranspiration was computed as the product of the estimated crop coefficients, derived from field radiometer measurements, and reference evapotranspiration. In comparison with ground data, RMSE values are on the order of 1 mm per day. Finally the opportunity to use high-resolution satellite data to make near real-time estimates of crop evaporation is discussed.     

Modeling a farm population to estimate on-farm compliance costs and environmental effects of a grassland extensification scheme at the regional scale

We used a farm-level modeling approach to estimate on-farm compliance costs and environmental effects of a grassland extensification scheme in the district of Ostprignitz-Ruppin, Germany. The behavior of the regional farm population (n = 585) consisting of different farm types with different production orientations and grassland types was modeled under the presence and absence of the grassland extensification scheme using the bio-economic model MODAM. Farms were based on available accountancy data and surveyed production data, while information on farm location within the district was derived from a spatial allocation procedure. The reduction in total gross margin per unit area was used to measure on-farm compliance costs. A dimensionless environmental index was used to assess the suitability of the scheme to reduce the risk of nitrate-leaching.Calculated on-farm compliance costs and environmental effects were heterogeneous in space and farm types as a result of different agricultural production and site characteristics. On-farm costs ranged from zero up to almost 1500 Euro/ha. Such high costs occurred only in a very small part of the regional area, whereas the majority of the grassland had low on-farm costs below 50 Euro/ha. Environmental effects were moderate and greater on high-yield than on low-yield grassland. The low effectiveness combined with low on-farm costs in large parts of the region indicates that the scheme is not well targeted. The soft scheme design results from an attempt to achieve environmental and rural development objectives with only one scheme. Improving the efficiency of the scheme would require designing separate instruments for the two distinct objectives. This is in line with the Tinbergen rule, which states that consistent economic policy requires that the number of instruments equals the number of targets.     

Water use and water use efficiency of sweet corn under different weather conditions and soil moisture regimes

Plant growth and development are influenced by weather conditions that also affect water use (WU) and water use efficiency (WUE) and ultimately, yield. The overall goal of this study was to determine the impact of weather and soil moisture conditions on WU and WUE of sweet corn (Zea mays L. var rugosa). An experiment consisting on three planting dates was conducted in 2006 at The University of Georgia, USA. A sweet corn genotype sh2 was planted on March 27 under irrigated and rainfed conditions and on April 10 and 25 under irrigated conditions only. Soil moisture was monitored using PR2 probes. Rainfall and irrigation were recorded with rain gauges installed in the experimental area while other weather variables were recorded with an automatic weather station located nearby. A water balance was used to obtain the crop's daily evapotranspiration (ETc). WUE was calculated as the ratio of fresh and dry matter ear yield and cumulative ETc. The potential soil moisture deficit (Dp) approach was used to determine the crop's moisture stress. Results were analyzed using a single degree freedom contrast, linear regression, and the least significant difference. WU and WUE of sweet corn were both markedly affected by the intra-seasonal weather variability and Dp. For both variables, significant (p < 0.05) differences were found between planting dates under irrigated conditions and between the irrigated and rainfed treatments. WU was as high as 268 mm for the April 10 planting date under irrigated conditions and as low as 122 mm for the March 27 planting date under rainfed conditions. The maximum soil moisture deficit was reached at the milky kernel stage and was as high as 343 mm for the March 27 planting date under rainfed conditions and as low as 260 mm for the April 10 planting date under irrigated conditions. Further work should focus on the impact of the intra-seasonal weather variability and soil moisture conditions during different crop stages to determine critical periods that affect yield.     

1986年以来黄河上游可利用降水量变化及对径流影响分析

以黄河上游兰州以上历年逐月可利用降水量为基本资料,分析确定1986年为近57年变化转折点,进而统计分析了1986年以来汛期可利用降水量较前期的时空变化,并依据天然径流量与其的关系,建立天然径流量计算公式,计算分析了可利用降水量变化和其它因素对径流量的影响。主要结论为:(1)可利用降水量年际变化特点有:①近57年总体呈减少趋势,并有前期偏多,中期基本正常和近期明显偏少的阶段性特点;②1986年前以正距平居多,之后则以负距平为主。(2)近期较前期变化特点有:①全年总量减少,主要由汛期总量明显减少所致;②尽管非汛期11、12、1、4月有所减少,但因2、3月显著增多使得其总量相对增多;③不同月份差异甚大,如5、10月变化不大,6月有所增加,7~9月明显减少;④夏秋季明显减少,冬春季有所增多;⑤中南部普遍减少20~60 mm;⑥北部湟水流域变化不大;⑦西北小部分有所增加。(3)时段不同,可利用降水量变化和其它因素对径流的影响幅度不同:①20世纪80年代后期不及其它因素的影响显著(二者影响幅度比为2∶8);②20世纪90年代和近8年影响相对较为显著,二者影响的幅度比为3∶7。     

基于HJ-1卫星影像的三大农作物估产最佳时相选择

对于农作物遥感估产，精确选择最佳估产时相是关键环节。该文利用中国自行研发的HJ-1卫星CCD影像对黑龙江八五二农场3大作物（水稻、玉米、大豆）进行遥感估产的最佳时相选择，通过构建小波变换滤波方法和移动平均法的时序NDVI曲线数据，并依据平滑后的时序NDVI曲线分别确定3大作物的遥感估产最佳时相。研究结果表明，从平滑后的时序NDVI曲线中识别出来的3大作物的关键生长期与当地作物的物候期相对比，水稻生长期拟合误差为-0.003356508，玉米生长期拟合误差为-0.001687117，大豆生长期拟合误差为-0     

Agro-hydrological evaluation of on-farm rainwater storage systems for supplemental irrigation in Laikipia district,Kenya

Semi-arid agro-ecosystems are characterized by erratic rainfall and high evaporation rates leading to unreliable agricultural production. Total seasonal rainfall may be enough to sustain crop production, but its distribution and occurrence of intra-season dry spells (ISDS) and off-season dry spells (ODS) affect crop production. Rainwater harvesting (RWH) and management, especially on-farm storage ponds for supplemental irrigation offers an opportunity to mitigate the recurrent dry spells. Farm ponds are small runoff storage structures of capacities ranging from 30 to 100 m³ used mainly for supplemental irrigation of kitchen gardens, and sometimes for domestic and livestock water supply. The main objective of the study was to evaluate the hydrological and economic performance of farm ponds with the view of assessing their contributions to water and food security in semi-arid agro-systems of Kenya. Agro-hydrological evaluation of on-farm runoff storage systems entailed field survey, monitoring of water losses, analysis of rainy seasons and dry spell occurrence, soil moisture and water balance, estimation of supplemental irrigation requirement (SIR) and farm-level cost-benefit analysis of cabbage production using low-head drip irrigation system. Significant water losses through seepage and evaporation, which accounted on average for 30–50% of the stored runoff, is one of the factors that affect the adoption and up-scaling of on-farm water storage systems. Frequency analysis of rainfall revealed that there is 80% probability of occurrence of dry spells exceeding 10 and 12 days during the long rains and short rains, respectively. The occurrence of off-season (after rainfall cessation) dry spells was more pronounced than intra-seasonal (within the rainy season) dry spells. The length of intra-seasonal (10–15 days) was less than off-season dry spells (20–30 days). The occurrence of off-season dry spells coincides with the critical crop growth stage, in particular flowering and yield formation stages. A 50 m³ farm pond with a drip system irrigation system was found adequate to meet supplemental irrigation requirement for a kitchen garden of 300–600 m² planted with a 90 days growing period cabbages. The cost-benefit analysis showed that farm ponds are feasible solutions to persistent crop failures in semi-arid areas which dominant most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).     

河北省夏玉米水分生产函数模型初步分析

依据河北省藁城、望都、中心灌溉试验站1984～1988年夏玉米的灌溉试验资料，采用多元回归分析方法，分别求出Jensen、Minhas、Blank、Stewart及Singh模型的敏感指标，并对其进行对比分析，得出适合藁城、望都、中心试验站三地的夏玉米水分生产函数模型。     

基于多源数据的华北平原夏玉米种植区划研究

精准识别农业生产环境信息和农业生产特征,对气象、土壤和作物等多源数据进行综合分类,是提高农业资源利用效率和优化农业种植结构的基础。本研究基于近20年（1998~2017年）气象数据和华北五省的玉米单产统计数据,首先构建了华北平原气候资源和玉米生产时空分布特征数据库,研究区内的降雨量、活动积温、日照时数、太阳辐射和玉米单产均存在显著的时空变化;利用作物精细种植区划方法,将华北平原夏玉米种植区分为极不适宜区、不适宜区、较适宜区、适宜区、极适宜区五大类,各类面积分别占总体的比例约为10%、11%、25%、30%、24%;进一步通过环境类别归属度分析方法,将每一大类分为5小类,概率大于75%的相对稳定区域约占总面积的63%,小于75%的波动区域约占37%;极不适宜区、不适宜区和较适宜区,三类时空分布比较稳定,隶属度为100%分别占各类面积的87.67%、70.41%和84.28%,波动区主要发生在极适宜区和适宜区,以及适宜区和较适宜区之间。本研究构建的华北平原夏玉米精细区划结果,对提高研究区资源利用效率和优化玉米产业布局具有重要的指导意义。     

不同生育阶段土壤水分和养分空间变异与冬小麦产量关系的研究

以江苏省姜堰市沈高农场为例,分析了冬小麦生育期内土壤水分和养分产量的空间变异性,主成分-逐步回归的适当组合,能较为满意地降低土壤特性与产量关系分析中多重共线性的干扰,分析结果表明,土壤水分属弱变异性,养分属程度不同的中等变异性;所测土壤特性与产量关系的亲疏大致为:有机质和全氮量最密切,其次是速效氮,再次是速效钾,接下来是土壤水分和速效磷。     

Yield uncertainty at the field scale evaluated with multi-year satellite data

The level of yield risk faced by a farmer is an important factor in the design of appropriate management and insurance strategies. The difference between field scale and regional scale yield risk, which can be significant, also represents an important measure of the factors that cause the yield gap – the difference between average and maximum yields. While field scale yield risk is difficult to assess with traditional data sources, yield maps derived from remote sensing offer promise for obtaining the necessary data in any region. We analyzed remotely sensed yield datasets for two regions in Northwest Mexico, the Yaqui and San Luis Rio Colorado Valleys, in conjunction with time series of aggregated regional yields for 1976–2002. Regional scale yield risk was roughly 8% of average yields in both regions. Field scale yield risk was determined to be 58% higher than regional scale risk in both regions. The difference between field and regional scale risk accounted for 50% of the spatial variance in yields in the Yaqui Valley, and 70% in the San Luis Rio Colorado Valley, indicating that climatic uncertainty represents an important source of the spatial yield variability. This implies that accurate seasonal climate forecasts could substantially reduce yield losses in farmers’ fields. The results were shown to be fairly sensitive to assumptions about the magnitude and nature of errors in yield estimation, suggesting that improved understanding of estimation errors are needed to realize the full potential of remote sensing for yield risk analysis.     

石羊河流域农产品虚拟水细分研究

采用Penman公式计算作物需水量,根据作物需水量、作物生育期有效降雨量、农产品单产等计算农产品中含虚拟水、虚拟蓝水和虚拟绿水量,并以石羊河流域为例进行实证研究。通过对比分析石羊河流域不同区域主要农产品中含虚拟水量及组成,从提高绿水利用率角度,提出凉州区应增加水果的种植面积,民勤县应增加棉花的种植面积,古浪县应增加玉米和水果的种植面积,天祝县应增加小麦的种植面积,金川区应增加棉花的种植面积,永昌县应增加玉米和水果的种植面积。虚拟水的细分研究可为区域农业水资源优化配置提供参考。     

基于单机农田遥感系统的时令作物监测

设计了高时空分辨率的单机农田遥感系统（stand-alone in field remote sensing system,SIRSS）.阐述了SIRSS的系统设计、图像分析程序和植被指数的检测,验证试验在三种不同养分处理下的8个不同生长阶段的玉米田块中进行,2009年作物生长期内共采集91幅图像,从每天的图像中提取两种不同的植被指数.三种处理下指数值在播种后31～40天区别最大,表明此阶段是检测玉米田由氮胁迫引起变化的最佳时期.SIRSS表明其在植物状态变化监测方面很有潜力.