Variation in nitrogen deposition and available soil nitrogen in a forest–grassland ecotone in Canada

Regional variation in nitrogen (N) deposition increases plant productivity and decreases species diversity, but landscape- or local -scale influences on N deposition are less well-known. Using ion-exchange resin, we measured variation of N deposition and soil N availability within Elk Island National Park in the ecotone between grassland and boreal forest in western Canada. The park receives regionally high amounts of atmospheric N deposition (22 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). N deposition was on average higher ton clay-rich luvisols than on brunisols, and areas burned 1–15 years previously received more atmospheric N than unburned sites. We suggest that the effects of previous fires and soil type on deposition rate act through differences in canopy structure. The magnitude of these effects varied with the presence of ungulate grazers (bison, moose, elk) and vegetation type (forest, shrubland, grassland). Available soil N (ammonium and nitrate) was higher in burned than unburned sites in the absence of grazing, suggesting an effect of deposition. On grazed sites, differences between fire treatments were small, presumably because the removal of biomass by grazers reduced the effect of fire. Aspen invades native grassland in this region, and our results suggest that fire without grazing might reinforce the expansion of forest into grassland facilitated by N deposition.     

Long-term,landscape patterns of past fire events in a montane ponderosa pine forest of central Colorado

Parameters of fire regimes, including fire frequency, spatial extent of burned areas, fire severity, and season of fire occurrence, influence vegetation patterns over multiple scales. In this study, centuries-long patterns of fire events in a montane ponderosa pine – Douglas-fir forest landscape surrounding Cheesman Lake in central Colorado were reconstructed from fire-scarred trees and inferences from forest stand ages. We crossdated 153 fire-scarred trees from an approximately 4000 ha study area that recorded 77 total fire years from 1197 to the present. Spatial extent of burned areas during fire years varied from the scale of single trees or small clusters of trees to fires that burned across the entire landscape. Intervals between fire years varied from 1 to 29 years across the entire landscape to 3 to 58 years in one stand, to over 100 years in other stands. Large portions of the landscape did not record any fire for a 128 year-long period from 1723 to 1851. Fire severity varied from low-intensity surface fires to large-scale, stand-destroying fires, especially during the 1851 fire year but also possibly during other years. Fires occurred throughout tree growing seasons and both before and after growing seasons. These results suggest that the fire regime has varied considerably across the study area during the past several centuries. Since fires influence plant establishment and mortality on the landscape, these results further suggest that vegetation patterns changed at multiple scales during this period. The fire history from Cheesman Lake documents a greater range in fire behavior in ponderosa pine forests than generally has been found in previous studies.     

Mapping the probability of large fire occurrence in northern Arizona, USA

In the southwestern U.S., wildland fire frequency and area burned have steadily increased in recent decades, a pattern attributable to multiple ignition sources. To examine contributing landscape factors and patterns related to the occurrence of large (⩾20 ha in extent) fires in the forested region of northern Arizona, we assembled a database of lightning- and human-caused fires for the period 1 April to 30 September, 1986–2000. At the landscape scale, we used a weights-of-evidence approach to model and map the probability of occurrence based on all fire types (n = 203), and lightning-caused fires alone (n = 136). In total, large fires burned 101,571 ha on our study area. Fires due to lightning were more frequent and extensive than those caused by humans, although human-caused fires burned large areas during the period of our analysis. For all fires, probability of occurrence was greatest in areas of high topographic roughness and lower road density. Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)-dominated forest vegetation and mean annual precipitation were less important predictors. Our modeling results indicate that seasonal large fire events are a consequence of non-random patterns of occurrence, and that patterns generated by these events may affect the regional fire regime more extensively than previously thought. Identifying the factors that influence large fires will improve our ability to target resource protection efforts and manage fire risk at the landscape scale.     

Fire-induced changes in northern Patagonian landscapes

In northern Patagonia, Argentina we quantify changes in fire frequency along a gradient from mesic Nothofagus dombeyi forest to xeric woodlands of Austrocedrus chilensis at the steppe ecotone, and we examine patterns of vegetation change coincident with the changes in fire regimes across a range of spatial scales. At a regional scale changes in land cover types are documented by comparing 1:250000 scale cover type maps from 1913 and 1985. Changes in landscape structure are analyzed by comparing vegetation patterns on 1:24000 scale aerial photographs taken in 1940 and 1970. Fire frequency peaked in the late nineteenth-century due to widespread burning and clearing of forests by European settlers late in the century. Subsequently, fire frequency declined dramatically about 1910 due to the cessation of intentional fires and has remained low due to increasingly effective fire exclusion. At a regional scale there has been a dramatic increase during the twentieth century in the proportion of forest cover relative to areas mapped as recent burns or shrublands in 1913. Remnant forest patches that survived the widespread late-nineteenth century burning have coalesced to form more continuous forest covers, and formerly continuous areas of shrublands have become dissected by forest. Under reduced fire frequency there has been a shift in dominance from short-lived resprouting species (mostly shrubs) towards longer-lived species and obligate seed-dispersers such as Austrocedrus chilensis and Nothofagus dombeyi. Due to limited seed dispersal of these tree species, the spatial configuration of remnant forest patches plays a key role in subsequent changes in landscape pattern.     

Spatial patterns of large natural fires in Sierra Nevada wilderness areas

The effects of fire on vegetation vary based on the properties and amount of existing biomass (or fuel) in a forest stand, weather conditions, and topography. Identifying controls over the spatial patterning of fire-induced vegetation change, or fire severity, is critical in understanding fire as a landscape scale process. We use gridded estimates of fire severity, derived from Landsat ETM+ imagery, to identify the biotic and abiotic factors contributing to the observed spatial patterns of fire severity in two large natural fires. Regression tree analysis indicates the importance of weather, topography, and vegetation variables in explaining fire severity patterns between the two fires. Relative humidity explained the highest proportion of total sum of squares throughout the Hoover fire (Yosemite National Park, 2001). The lowest fire severity corresponded with increased relative humidity. For the Williams fire (Sequoia/Kings Canyon National Parks, 2003) dominant vegetation type explains the highest proportion of sum of squares. Dominant vegetation was also important in determining fire severity throughout the Hoover fire. In both fires, forest stands that were dominated by lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) burned at highest severity, while red fir (Abies magnifica) stands corresponded with the lowest fire severities. There was evidence in both fires that lower wind speed corresponded with higher fire severity, although the highest fire severity in the Williams fire occurred during increased wind speed. Additionally, in the vegetation types that were associated with lower severity, burn severity was lowest when the time since last fire was fewer than 11 and 17 years for the Williams and Hoover fires, respectively. Based on the factors and patterns identified, managers can anticipate the effects of management ignited and naturally ignited fires at the forest stand and the landscape levels.     

Effects of site,landscape features,and fire regime on vegetation patterns in presettlement southern Wisconsin

The presettlement tree cover (1831–33) of 3 townships in a southern Wisconsin landscape was analyzed using original survey records. Four forest types were identified: closed forest, open forest, savanna, and prairie. Comparisons of vegetation types and landscape pattern were made between the east and west sides of the Pecatonica River, which bisects the landscape and could have acted as a natural fire barrier. West of the river, presettlement tree species richness and diversity were lower and trees were smaller in diameter and less dense than to the east. The major vegetation types to the west were prairie (42% of landscape) and savanna (40%), both fire-susceptible types. Prairie was more common on gentle slopes than on other landforms. To the east, the landscape was 70% forested (closed plus open forest). Here, prairie was more frequent on steep dry sites. These vegetation differences, including the contrasting landscape placement of prairie, are attributed to distinct site characteristics and to disturbance (fire) regimes, with the west likely having more frequent fires. In terms of the four vegetation types, the east landscape was more homogeneous, being dominated by closed forest (50%). West of the Pecatonica River, the landscape was more heterogeneous because of the high proportion of both prairie and savanna; however, in terms of flammability of vegetation, the west was essentially homogeneous (82% prairie plus savanna).     

Landscape patterns of nitrogen mineralization and nitrification in southern Ohio hardwood forests

This study quantified nitrogen mineralization and nitrification potentials in soils of hardwood forests of southern Ohio at three spatial scales: (1) the regional scale, represented by four study areas of 90–120 ha separated by 3–65 km, (2) the local scale, represented by three contiguous watersheds within each study area, and (3) the topographic scale, represented by xeric, intermediate, and mesic sites within each watershed, as defined by a GIS-generated Integrated Moisture Index (IMI). Organic C, NO₃ pool size, net N mineralization, proportional nitrification, and net nitrification potentials all varied among study sites (i.e. at the regional scale). Using path analysis, we were able to construct scale-independent causal models explaining 30–35% of the variance in organic C and potential net N mineralization and 70% of the variance in potential net NO₃ production. Site- and scale-specific differences in geology and/or land use history among study sites were likely responsible for the variation not explained by the path analysis. At the local scale, there were significant variations in organic C and inorganic N pool sizes among watersheds within a study site in two of the four study sites. In addition, most parameters we measured varied significantly along the topographic gradient (i.e. with long-term soil moisture availability/IMI). Based on our results, scaling up models of nitrification from plot scale to the regional scale should be straightforward, whereas scaling up organic C storage and N mineralization will require incorporation of independent scaling paradigms at three (or more) spatial scales.     

Biophysical influences on the spatial distribution of fire in the desert grassland region of the southwestern USA

Context

Fire is an important driver of ecological processes in semiarid systems and serves a vital role in shrub-grass interactions. In desert grasslands of the southwestern US, the loss of fire has been implicated as a primary cause of shrub encroachment. Where fires can currently be re-introduced given past state changes and recent restoration actions, however, is unknown and controversial.

Objectives

Our objective was to evaluate the interactive effects of climate, urban development, and topo-edaphic properties on fire distribution in the desert grassland region of the southwestern United States.

Methods

We characterized the spatial distribution of fire in the Chihuahuan Desert and Madrean Archipelago ecoregions and investigated the influence of soil properties and ecological site groups compared to other commonly used biophysical variables using multi-model inference.

Results

Soil-landscape properties significantly influenced the spatial distribution of fire ignitions. Fine-textured bottomland ecological site classes experienced more fires than expected in contrast to upland sites with coarse soil textures and high fragment content that experienced fewer fire ignitions than expected. Influences of mean annual precipitation, distance to road/rail, soil available water holding capacity (AWHC) and topographic variables varied between ecoregions and political jurisdictions and by fire season. AWHC explained more variability of fire ignitions in the Madrean Archipelago compared to the Chihuahuan Desert.

Conclusions

Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of recent fires in desert grasslands is needed to manage fire and predict responses to climate change. The use of landscape units such as ecological sites presents an opportunity to improve predictions at management scales.

     

Historical patterns of fire severity and forest structure and composition in a landscape structured by frequent large fires: Pumice Plateau ecoregion,Oregon, USA

Context

Lack of quantitative observations of extent, frequency, and severity of large historical fires constrains awareness of departure of contemporary conditions from those that demonstrated resistance and resilience to frequent fire and recurring drought.

Objectives

Compare historical and contemporary fire and forest conditions for a dry forest landscape with few barriers to fire spread.

Methods

Quantify differences in (1) historical (1700–1918) and contemporary (1985–2015) fire extent, fire rotation, and stand-replacing fire and (2) historical (1914–1924) and contemporary (2012) forest structure and composition. Data include 85,750-ha tree-ring reconstruction of fire frequency and extent; >?375,000-ha timber inventory following >?78,900-ha fires in 1918; and remotely-sensed maps of contemporary fire effects and forest conditions.

Results

Historically, fires?>?20,000 ha occurred every 9.5 years; fire rotation was 14.9 years; seven fires?>?40,469 ha occurred during extreme drought (PDSI <?? 4.0); and stand-replacing fire occurred primarily in lodgepole (Pinus contorta var. murrayana). In contemporary fires, only 5% of the ecoregion burned in 30 years, and stand-replacing fire occurred primarily in ponderosa (Pinus ponderosa) and mixed-conifer. Historically, density of conifers?>?15 cm dbh exceeded 120 trees/ha on?<?5% of the area compared to 95% currently.

Conclusions

Frequent, large, low-severity fires historically maintained open-canopy ponderosa and mixed-conifer forests in which large fire- and drought-tolerant trees were prevalent. Stand-replacing patches in ponderosa and mixed-conifer were rare, even in fires >?40,469 ha (minimum size of contemporary “megafires”) during extreme drought. In this frequent-fire landscape, mixed-severity fire historically influenced lodgepole and adjacent forests. Lack of large, frequent, low-severity fires degrades contemporary forest ecosystems.

     

Stand-replacing patches within a ‘mixed severity’ fire regime: quantitative characterization using recent fires in a long-established natural fire area

The complexity inherent in variable, or mixed-severity fire regimes makes quantitative characterization of important fire regime attributes (e.g., proportion of landscape burned at different severities, size and distribution of stand-replacing patches) difficult. As a result, there is ambiguity associated with the term ‘mixed-severity’. We address this ambiguity through spatial analysis of two recent wildland fires in upper elevation mixed-conifer forests that occurred in an area with over 30 years of relatively freely-burning natural fires. We take advantage of robust estimates of fire severity and detailed spatial datasets to investigate patterns and controls on stand-replacing patches within these fires. Stand-replacing patches made up 15% of the total burned area between the two fires, which consisted of many small patches (<4 ha) and few large patches (>60 ha). Smaller stand-replacing patches were generally associated with shrub-dominated (Arctostaphylos spp. and Ceanothus spp.) and pine-dominated vegetation types, while larger stand-replacing patches tended to occur in more shade-tolerant, fir-dominated types. Additionally, in shrub-dominated types stand-replacing patches were often constrained to the underlying patch of vegetation, which for the shrub type were smaller across the two fire areas than vegetation patches for all other dominant vegetation types. For white and red fir forest types we found little evidence of vegetation patch constraint on the extent of stand-replacing patches. The patch dynamics we identified can be used to inform management strategies for landscapes in similar forest types.     

Topographic variation in the climatic change response of a larch forest in Northeastern China

Context

Due to the spatial heterogeneity of the disturbance regimes and community assemblages along topoclimatic gradients, the response of forest ecosystem to climate change varies at the landscape scale.

Objectives

Our objective was to quantify the possible changes in forest ecosystems and the relative effects of climate warming and fire regime changes in different topographic positions.

Methods

We used a spatially explicit model (LANDIS PRO) combined with a gap model (LINKAGES) to predict the possible response of boreal larch forests to climate and fire regime changes, and examined how this response would vary in different topographic positions.

Results

The result showed that the proportion of landscape occupied by broadleaf species increased under warming climate and frequent fires scenarios. Shifts in species composition were strongly influenced by both climate warming and more frequent fires, while changes in age structure were mainly controlled by shifts in fire regime. These responses varied in the different topographic positions, with forests in valley bottoms being most resilient to climate-fire changes and forests in uplands being more likely to shift their composition from larch-dominant to mixed forests. Such variation in the topographic response may be induced by the heterogeneities of the environmental conditions and fire regime.

Conclusions

Fire disturbance could alter the equilibrium of ecosystems and accelerate the response of forests to climate warming. These effects are largely modulated by topographic variations. Our findings suggest that it is imperative to consider topographic complexities when developing appropriate fire management policies for mitigating the effects of climate change.

     

Drivers and trends in landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire in forests of the US Northern Rocky Mountains (1984–2010)

Context

Resilience in fire-prone forests is strongly affected by landscape burn-severity patterns, in part by governing propagule availability around stand-replacing patches in which all or most vegetation is killed. However, little is known about drivers of landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire, or whether such patterns are changing during an era of increased wildfire activity.

Objectives

(a) Identify key direct/indirect drivers of landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire (e.g., size, shape of patches), (b) test for temporal trends in these patterns, and (c) anticipate thresholds beyond which landscape patterns of burn severity may change fundamentally.

Methods

We applied structural equation modeling to satellite burn-severity maps of fires in the US Northern Rocky Mountains (1984–2010) to test for direct and indirect (via influence on fire size and proportion stand-replacing) effects of climate/weather, vegetation, and topography on landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire. We also tested for temporal trends in landscape patterns.

Results

Landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire were strongly controlled by fire size and proportion stand-replacing, which were, in turn, controlled by climate/weather and vegetation/topography, respectively. From 1984 to 2010, the proportion of stand-replacing fire within burn perimeters increased from 0.22 to 0.27. Trends for other landscape metrics were not significant, but may respond to further increases proportion stand-replacing fire.

Conclusions

Fires from 1984 to 2010 exhibited tremendous heterogeneity in landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire, likely promoting resilience in burned areas. If trends continue on the current trajectory, however, fires may produce larger and simpler shaped patches of stand-replacing fire with more burned area far from seed sources.

     

Land cover influences boreal-forest fire responses to climate change: geospatial analysis of historical records from Alaska

Context

Wildfire activity in boreal forests is projected to increase dramatically in response to anthropogenic climate change. By altering the spatial arrangement of fuels, land-cover configuration may interact with climate change to influence fire-regime dynamics at landscape and regional scales.

Objectives

We evaluate how land cover interacts with weather conditions to influence boreal-forest burning from 2012 to 2014 in Alaska.

Methods

Using geospatial fire and land-cover data, we quantify relationships between area burned and land cover, and test whether observed patterns of burning differ from random under varying weather conditions and fire sizes.

Results

Mean summer moisture index was correlated with annual area burned (ρ = ?0.78, p < 0.01), the total number of fires (ρ = ?0.68, p = 0.01), and the number of large fires (>500 km²; ρ = ?0.58, p = 0.04). Area burned was related positively to percent cover of coniferous forest and woody wetlands, and negatively to percent cover of shrub scrub, dwarf scrub, and open water and barren areas. Fires preferentially burned coniferous forest, which represented 50.1 % of the area burned in warmer/drier summers and 40.3 % of area burned in cooler/wetter summers, compared to the 34.5 % (±4.2 %) expected by random selection of land-cover classes. Overall vegetation tended to burn more similarly to random in warmer/drier than cooler/wetter years.

Conclusions

Land cover exerted greater influences on boreal fire regimes when weather conditions were less favorable for forest burning. Reliable projections of boreal fire-regime change thus require consideration of the interactions between climate and land cover, as well as feedbacks from land-cover change.

     

Forest fragmentation, climate change and understory fire regimes on the Amazonian landscapes of the Xingu headwaters

Understory fire modeling is a key tool to investigate the cornerstone concept of landscape ecology, i.e. how ecological processes relate to landscape structure and dynamics. Within this context, we developed FISC??a model that simulates fire ignition and spread and its effects on the forest carbon balance. FISC is dynamically coupled to a land-use change model to simulate fire regimes on the Amazonian landscapes of the Xingu Headwaters under deforestation, climate change, and land-use management scenarios. FISC incorporates a stochastic cellular automata approach to simulate fire spread across agricultural and forested lands. CARLUC, nested in FISC, simulates fuel dynamics, forest regrowth, and carbon emissions. Simulations of fire regimes under modeled scenarios revealed that the major current and future driver of understory fires is forest fragmentation rather than climate change. Fire intensity proved closely related to the landscape structure of the remaining forest. While climate change may increase the percentage of forest burned outside protected areas by 30% over the next four decades, deforestation alone may double it. Nevertheless, a scenario of forest recovery and better land-use management would abate fire intensity by 18% even in the face of climate change. Over this time period, the total carbon balance of the Xingu??s forests varies from an average net sink of 1.6?ton?ha^?1?year^?1 in the absence of climate change, fire and deforestation to a source of ?0.1?ton?ha^?1?year^?1 in a scenario that incorporates these three processes.     

Bottom-up control of a northern Arizona ponderosa pine forest fire regime in a fragmented landscape

Fire regimes often vary at fine spatial scales in response to factors such as topography or fuels while climate usually synchronizes fires across broader scales. We investigated the relative influence of top-down and bottom-up controls on fire occurrence in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests in a highly fragmented landscape at Mount Dellenbaugh, in northwestern Arizona. Our study area of 4,000?ha was characterized by patches of ponderosa pine forest in drainages that were separated by a matrix of pinyon?Cjuniper woodlands, sagebrush shrublands, and perennial grasslands. We reconstructed fire histories from 135 fire-scarred trees in sixteen 25-ha sample sites placed in patches of mature ponderosa forest. We found that, among patches of ponderosa forest, fires were similar in terms of frequency but highly asynchronous in terms of individual years. Climate synchronized fire but only across broader spatial scales. Fires occurring at broader scales were associated with dry years that were preceded by several wet years. The remarkable level of asynchrony at finer scales suggests that bottom-up factors, such as site productivity and fuel continuity, were important in regulating fire at Mount Dellenbaugh. Understanding where bottom-up controls were historically influential is important for prioritizing areas that may best respond to fuel treatment under a warming climate.     

Effects of fire frequency on plant communities and landscape pattern in the Massif des Aspres (southern France)

Fire frequency can affect pattern and diversity in plant communities and landscapes. We had the opportunity to study changes due to recurring wildfires on the same sites over a period of 50 years in the Massif des Aspres (southern France). The study was carried out in areas occupied byQuercus suber andQ. ilex series. A comparison of historical and cartographical documents (vegetation maps covering a 50 year interval and an accurate map of major wildfires during this period) allowed us to determine the changes occurring over time with or without fire action. Plant communities were grouped into three main vegetation types: forests, treed shrublands and shrublands. The passage of three successive wildfires on the same site led to a decrease in forest areas and an increase in shrublands; however, shrublands were already present before the first fire of the period under consideration. Less frequent fire occurrence induced more complex heterogeneity and greater landscape diversity. In the study region as a whole, with or without fire action, a significant decrease in forest surfaces was recorded, whereas there was an increase of unforested communities such as treed shrublands and shrublands. In some parts of the Massif fires increased the homogeneity of the landscape, in other parts they created a greater heterogeneity and diversity of plant communities.     

Influence of landscape structure,topography, and forest type on spatial variation in historical fire regimes,Central Oregon,USA

Context

In the interior Northwest, debate over restoring mixed-conifer forests after a century of fire exclusion is hampered by poor understanding of the pattern and causes of spatial variation in historical fire regimes.

Objectives

To identify the roles of topography, landscape structure, and forest type in driving spatial variation in historical fire regimes in mixed-conifer forests of central Oregon.

Methods

We used tree rings to reconstruct multicentury fire and forest histories at 105 plots over 10,393 ha. We classified fire regimes into four types and assessed whether they varied with topography, the location of fuel-limited pumice basins that inhibit fire spread, and an updated classification of forest type.

Results

We identified four fire-regime types and six forest types. Although surface fires were frequent and often extensive, severe fires were rare in all four types. Fire regimes varied with some aspects of topography (elevation), but not others (slope or aspect) and with the distribution of pumice basins. Fire regimes did not strictly co-vary with mixed-conifer forest types.

Conclusions

Our work reveals the persistent influence of landscape structure on spatial variation in historical fire regimes and can help inform discussions about appropriate restoration of fire-excluded forests in the interior Northwest. Where the goal is to restore historical fire regimes at landscape scales, managers may want to consider the influence of topoedaphic and vegetation patch types that could affect fire spread and ignition frequency.

     

Spatial attributes of fire regime in eastern Canada: influences of regional landscape physiography and climate

The characterization of the fire regime in the boreal forest rarely considers spatial attributes other than fire size. This study investigates the spatial attributes of fires using the physiography of the landscape as a spatial constraint at a regional scale. Using the Canadian National Fire Database, the size, shape, orientation and eccentricity were assessed for 1,136 fires between 1970 and 2010 in Quebec’s boreal forest and were summarized by ecodistrict. These spatial metrics were used to cluster 33 ecodistricts into homogeneous fire zones and then to determine which environmental variables (climate, topography, hydrography, and surficial deposits) influence the spatial attributes of fires. Analyses showed that 28 out of 33 ecodistricts belonging to a given fire zone were spatially contiguous, suggesting that factors driving the spatial attributes of fire are acting at a regional scale. Indeed, the orientation and size of fires vary significantly among the zones and are driven by the spatial orientation of the landscape and the seasonal regional climate. In some zones, prevailing winds during periods conducive to fire events parallel to the orientation of the landscape may favour the occurrence of very large fires (>100,000 ha). Conversely, an orientation of the landscape opposite to the prevailing winds may act as a natural firebreak and limit the fire size and orientation. This study highlights the need to consider the synergistic relationship between the landscape spatial patterns and the climate regime over the spatial attributes of fire at supra-regional scale. Further scale-dependant studies are needed to improve our understanding of the spatial factors controlling the spatial attributes of fire.     

Spatial patterning of fuels and fire hazard across a central U.S. deciduous forest region

Information describing spatial and temporal variability of forest fuel conditions is essential to assessing overall fire hazard and risk. Limited information exists describing spatial characteristics of fuels in the eastern deciduous forest region, particularly in dry oak-dominated regions that historically burned relatively frequently. From an extensive fuels survey of unmanaged forest lands (1,446 plots) we described fuel loadings and spatial patterns of fine and coarse fuels. We attempted to explain the variability in fuel loading of each time-lag fuel class using landscape and seasonal variables through a multiple regression modeling approach. Size class distributions of woody fuels were generally homogeneous across the region except in the glaciated portions of Illinois where loadings appeared lower. Temporally, litter depths progressively decreased from leaffall (November). A fire hazard model that combined seasonal changes in litter depth and fuel moisture content depicted the degree of regional spatial variability during the transition between extreme dry and wet conditions. In the future, fire hazard indices could be paired with ignition probabilities in order to assess spatio-temporal variability of fire risk within the region.     

Characterizing combined fire and insect outbreak disturbance regimes in British Columbia,Canada

Context

Fires and insect outbreaks are important agents of forest landscape change, but the classification and distribution of these combined processes remain unstudied aspects of forest disturbance regimes.

Objectives

We sought to map areas of land characterized by homogenous fire regime (HFR) attributes and by distinctive combinations of fire, bark beetles and defoliating insect outbreaks, and how their distribution might change should current climatic trends continue.

Methods

We used a 41-year history of mapped fires and forest insect outbreaks to classify HFRs and combined fire and insect disturbance regimes (HDRs). Spatially constrained cluster analysis of 2524 20-km grid cells used mean annual area burned, ignition Julian date, fire size and fire frequency to delineate HFR zones. Mean annual areas burned, affected by bark beetles, and affected by defoliators were used to delineate HDR zones. Random forests classification used climate associations of HDRs to project likely changes in their distribution.

Results

Eighteen HFR zones accounted for 30% of variance, compared to 27 HDR zones accounting for 59% of variance. Fire regime designation had low predictive power in explaining 23 homogenous insect outbreak regimes or the 27 HDRs. Climate change projections indicate a northward migration of current HDR zones. Conditions suitable for defoliator outbreaks are projected to increase, resulting in a projected increase in the total rate of forest disturbance.

Conclusions

When describing forest disturbance regimes, it is important to consider the combined and possibly interacting agents of tree mortality, which can result in emergent properties not predictable from any single agent.