Covariation between the average lengths of mature coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) and the ocean environment

We used the average fork length of age‐3 returning coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and age‐3 ocean‐type and age‐4 stream‐type Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) salmon along the northeast Pacific coast to assess the covariability between established oceanic environmental indices and growth. These indices included the Multivariate El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northern Oscillation Index, and Aleutian Low Pressure Index. Washington, Oregon, and California (WOC) salmon sizes were negatively correlated with the MEI values indicating that ultimate fish size was affected negatively by El Niño‐like events. Further, we show that the growth trajectory of WOC salmon was set following the first ocean winter. Returning ocean‐type British Columbia‐Puget Sound Chinook salmon average fork length was positively correlated with the MEI values during the summer and autumn of return year, which was possibly a result of a shallower mixed layer and improved food‐web productivity of subarctic Pacific waters. Size variation of coho salmon stocks south of Alaska was synchronous and negatively correlated with warm conditions (positive PDO) and weak North Pacific high pressure during ocean residence.     

Time‐varying relationships between ocean conditions and sockeye salmon productivity

Environmental change is occurring at unprecedented rates in many marine ecosystems. Yet, environmental effects on fish populations are commonly assumed to be constant across time. In this study, I tested whether relationships between ocean conditions and productivity of North American sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks have changed over the past six decades. Specifically, I evaluated the evidence for non‐stationary relationships between three widely used ocean indices and productivity of 45 sockeye salmon stocks using hierarchical Bayesian models. The ocean indices investigated were the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), and sea surface temperature (SST). I found partial support for time‐varying salmon–ocean relationships. Non‐stationary relationships were strongest for the NPGO and weaker for the SST and PDO indices. Productivity–NPGO correlations tended to shift gradually over time with opposite trends for stocks in British Columbia (B.C.) and western Alaska; for B.C. stocks, the NPGO correlations shifted from significantly negative prior to 1980 to significantly positive after 1990, whereas for western Alaska stocks, the correlations shifted from positive to negative. Productivity–SST correlations showed declining trends for B.C. and Gulf of Alaska stocks, that is, correlations became more negative (B.C.) or less positive (Gulf of Alaska) over time. For the PDO, correlations weakened during the 1980s for western Alaska and B.C. stocks. Overall, these results provide evidence for time‐varying relationships between salmon productivity and environmental conditions over six decades, highlighting the need to recognize that historical responses of salmon populations to environmental change may not be indicative of future responses.     

Influences of ocean conditions and feeding ecology on the survival of juvenile Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

Recruitment variability in many fish populations is postulated to be influenced by climatic and oceanographic variability. However, a mechanistic understanding of the influence of specific variables on recruitment is generally lacking. Feeding ecology is one possible mechanism that more directly links ocean conditions and recruitment. We test this mechanism using juvenile Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) collected off the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada, in 2000–2009. Stable isotopes of carbon (δ¹³C), an indicator of temperature or primary productivity, and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N), an indicator of trophic position, were taken from muscle tissues of genetically stock‐identified salmon. We also collated large‐scale climate indices (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation), local climate variables (e.g., sea surface temperature) and copepod community composition across these years. We used a Bayesian network to determine how ocean conditions influenced feeding ecology, and subsequent survival rates. We found that smolt survival of Chinook Salmon is predicted by their δ¹³C value, but not their δ¹⁵N. In turn, large‐scale climate variability determined the δ¹³C values of salmon, thus linking climate to survival through feeding ecology, likely through qualities propagated from the base of the food chain.     

Marine environment‐based forecasting of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) adult recruitment

Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to investigate the relationships between annual recruitment of natural coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) from Oregon coastal rivers and indices of the physical ocean environment. Nine indices were examined, ranging from large‐scale ocean indicators, e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), to indicators of the local ecosystem (e.g., coastal water temperature near Charleston, OR). Generalized additive models with two and three predictor variables were evaluated using a set of performance metrics aimed at quantifying model skill in short‐term (approximately 1 yr) forecasting. High explanatory power and promising forecast skill resulted when the spring/summer PDO averaged over the 4 yr prior to the return year was used to explain a low‐frequency (multi‐year) pattern in recruitment and one or two additional variables accounted for year‐to‐year deviations from the low‐frequency pattern. More variance was explained when averaging the predictions from a set of models (i.e., taking the ensemble mean) than by any single model. Making multiple forecasts from a set of models also provided a range of possible outcomes that reflected, to some degree, the uncertainty in our understanding of how salmon productivity is driven by physical ocean conditions.     

北太平洋小型中上层鱼类资源对气候–海洋变化的响应研究进展

小型中上层鱼类是北太平洋海域重要的渔业资源,具有生命周期短、生长速度快、高集群性等特点,其资源年间波动显著,且受气候-海洋变化的影响。本文围绕秋刀鱼（Coloabis saira）、鲣（Katsuwonus pelamis）、鲐（Scomber japonicus）、鳀（Engraulis japonious）、竹䇲鱼（Trachurus japonicus）、沙丁鱼（Sardinops sagax）6种主要的小型中上层鱼类,回顾了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（El Niño/La Niña-southern oscillation,ENSO）、太平洋年代际振荡（the Pacific decadal oscillation,PDO）、黑潮-亲潮（Kuroshio-Oyashio,KR-OY）等关键气候-海洋指数的特点及对鱼类栖息地环境和资源变动的影响。概括了气候-海洋变化对小型中上层鱼类的洄游分布和资源丰度的直接影响过程,以及对亲体繁殖产卵、仔稚体成活率和资源量波动间接的滞后影响过程。建议：（1）在多种气候-海洋指数基础上添加种群动态过程、捕捞方式系数、自然死亡率等参数构建生物量动态模型,揭示气候-海洋变化对渔业资源量的影响过程;（2）结合北太平洋涛动（North Pacific oscillation,NPO）、北极涛动（Arctic oscillation,AO）、北太平洋环流振荡（North Pacific gyre oscillation,NPGO）等其他北太平洋主要气候,基于物理海洋模型及空间耦合水动力学模型研究大尺度海流、中尺度涡旋对小型中上层鱼类影响。     

Effects of the North Pacific Current on the productivity of 163 Pacific salmon stocks

Horizontal ocean transport can influence the dynamics of higher‐trophic‐level species in coastal ecosystems by altering either physical oceanographic conditions or the advection of food resources into coastal areas. In this study, we investigated whether variability in two North Pacific Current (NPC) indices was associated with changes in productivity of North American Pacific salmon stocks. Specifically, we used Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate the effects of the north‐south location of the NPC bifurcation (BI) and the NPC strength, indexed by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), on the productivity of 163 pink, chum, and sockeye salmon stocks. We found that for salmon stocks located in Washington (WA) and British Columbia (BC), both the BI and NPGO had significant positive effects on productivity, indicating that a northward‐shifted bifurcation and a stronger NPC are associated with increased salmon productivity. For the WA and BC regions, the estimated NPGO effect was over two times larger than the BI effect for pink and chum salmon, whereas for sockeye salmon the BI effect was 2.4 times higher than the NPGO. In contrast to WA and BC stocks, we found weak effects of both horizontal ocean transport processes on the productivity of salmon stocks in Alaska. Our results indicated that horizontal transport pathways might strongly influence population dynamics of Pacific salmon in the southern part of their North American ranges, but not the northern part, suggesting that different environmental pathways may underlie changes in salmon productivity in northern and southern areas for the species under consideration.     

不同气候模态下西北太平洋柔鱼渔场环境特征分析

柔鱼冬春生群体广泛分布于西北太平洋,其种群分布与大小受气候变化和环境因子调控。本实验根据中国鱿钓组提供的1995—2011年渔业捕捞数据和海洋环境数据包括海表温度(SSTA)、海表面高度(SSHA)和混合层深度(MLDA)的距平值,分析不同气候模态下(PDO暖期和PDO冷期)柔鱼渔场环境的变化。结果显示,PDO暖期时,柔鱼CPUE高;PDO冷期时,CPUE变低。柔鱼渔场SSTA、SSHA和MLDA年间变化显著,各环境变量的时间变化与PDO冷暖相位对应。SSTA和SSHA与PDO指数负相关,滞后时间分别为–9~10月和–20~17月,且均在0月时相关系数最大;而MLDA与PDO指数呈正相关,滞后时间为–6~5月,在–1月相关系数最大。利用经验正交函数分析了SSTA、SSHA和MLDA时空变化的主要模态,前5个模态特征向量分别反映了西北太平洋柔鱼渔场SSTA、SSHA和MLDA分布场78.73%、32.82%和64.57%的信息。研究表明,气候模态变化驱动柔鱼渔场环境的变化,进而对西北太平洋柔鱼资源丰度产生显著影响。     

Climate‐driven winter variations of Calanus sinicus abundance in the East China Sea

Global environmental changes threaten the sustainable use of resources and raise uncertainties regarding marine populations' responses in a changing Ocean. The pelagic copepods of the genus Calanus play a central role in shelf ecosystems transferring phytoplankton carbon to harvested populations, from boreal to temperate regions. Here we examined a 15‐yr time series of Calanus sinicus abundance in regards to climate forcing in the East China Sea. We identified a compound effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) on environmental conditions in the East China Sea. Such climate influences not only a southward transport of C. sinicus from its population centres into the Taiwan area, but favours advantageous thermal conditions for the species as well. On the interannual scale, our results show that the population size of C. sinicus echoes climate‐driven temperature changes. Hence, the possibility of using the PDO and EAWM variability for assessing and predicting interannual abundance changes of C. sinicus in the East China Sea is considered. The observed close relationship between climate and C. sinicus may promote bottom‐up controls in the pelagic food web, further influencing the southern edge of the species' geographic distribution. Owing to the prominent role this species plays in food web dynamics these results might help integrative fisheries management policies in the heavily exploited East China Sea.     

不同气候模态下秘鲁外海茎柔鱼栖息地的季节性分布

茎柔鱼（Dosidicus gigas）为环境敏感型头足类,气候的多元变化促使茎柔鱼栖息地发生变动。本研究利用海表温度（SST）和海表面高度（SSHA）两个关键环境因子构建栖息地适宜性指数（HSI）模型,结合太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）指数,分析1950-2015年不同气候模态下秘鲁外海茎柔鱼栖息地的季节性分布规律。结果发现,PDO冷期茎柔鱼栖息地适宜性较高;而PDO暖期栖息地适宜性较低。相较于PDO冷期,PDO暖期下茎柔鱼适宜栖息地分布向东南移动。适宜栖息地的分布位置与适宜的SST和SSHA的重叠区域重合,表明两个关键环境因子与栖息地分布显著相关。此外,适宜栖息地指数距平值与PDO指数的年际变化呈显著负相关关系。春季茎柔鱼渔场栖息地适宜性高于冬季,且冬季适宜栖息地的分布相较春季偏东南方向。茎柔鱼渔场6-11月适宜的SST和最适宜的SST在经度和纬度上的分布存在显著差异,春季（9-11月）最适宜的SST分布逐月向西北方向移动;冬季（6-8月）最适宜的SST分布逐月向东南方向移动。推测不同气候模态下茎柔鱼栖息地季节性分布差异,可能是由于最适宜的SST显著的月间分布差异所致。研究表明,不同PDO时期下茎柔鱼栖息地适宜性具有显著季节性差异,其差异可由环境因子的月间变动来解释。     

北太平洋长鳍金枪鱼卵巢的发育特征

根据2013年10月–2014年2月在北太平洋海域(29°08′~41°08′N,163°50′~144°19′W)采集的364尾长鳍金枪鱼的卵巢样本,利用组织学分析,详细描述了长鳍金枪鱼卵巢、卵细胞的发育阶段。结果显示,北太平洋长鳍金枪鱼卵巢内同时存在不同时相的卵细胞,为分批产卵类型;组织学上,长鳍金枪鱼的卵细胞发育过程分为6个时相,卵巢发育过程分为6个时期;卵巢成熟指数在成熟期为Ⅰ~Ⅴ期时逐渐增大,在Ⅵ期时减小;北太平洋长鳍金枪鱼产卵高峰为12月中旬和1月初,其卵巢成熟指数随纬度的升高呈递减趋势,随经度变化规律不明显。研究表明,通过对北太平洋长鳍金枪鱼卵巢的发育特征的分析与探讨,可为北太平洋长鳍金枪鱼的资源状况评估及渔业可持续发展提供生物学信息。     

The importance of environment and life stage on interpretation of silky shark relative abundance indices for the equatorial Pacific Ocean

Recent large fluctuations in an index of relative abundance for the silky shark in the eastern Pacific Ocean have called into question its reliability as a population indicator for management. To investigate whether these fluctuations were driven by environmental forcing rather than true changes in abundance, a Pacific‐wide approach was taken. Data collected by observers aboard purse‐seine vessels fishing in the equatorial Pacific were used to compute standardized trends in relative abundance by region, and where possible, by shark size category as a proxy for life stage. These indices were compared to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), an index of Pacific Ocean climate variability. Correlation between silky indices and the PDO was found to differ by region and size category. The highest correlations by shark size category were for small (<90 cm total length [TL]) and medium (90–150 cm TL) sharks from the western region of the equatorial eastern Pacific (EP) and from the equatorial western Pacific. This correlation disappeared in the inshore EP. Throughout, correlations with the PDO were generally lower for large silky sharks (>150 cm TL). These results are suggestive of changes in the small and medium silky indices being driven by movement of juvenile silky sharks across the Pacific as the eastern edge of the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool shifts location with ENSO events. Lower correlation of the PDO with large shark indices may indicate that those indices were less influenced by environmental forcing and therefore potentially less biased with respect to monitoring population trends.     

Verifier of the maximum sustainable yield estimates of the southern Atlantic albacore,Thunnus alalunga,stock

Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) has generally been accepted as one of the target biological reference points. Albacore, Thunnus alalunga Bonnaterre, is a temperate tuna species widely distributed in marine waters. The International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT) and the International Seafood Sustainability Foundation (ISSF) had reported the southern Atlantic albacore stock status with different MSY reference points. In addition, the European Commission's Advisory Committee on Fisheries and Aquaculture (ACFA), on 15 September 2006, proposed to amend the Common Fisheries Policy according to the MSY principle, but there is little information on the verifier of the MSY estimates of this albacore stock. This study verifies the MSY estimates of this albacore (T. alalunga) stock to support the management (i.e. setting of MSY) for the southern Atlantic albacore (T. alalunga) stock. The MSY estimates of the albacore stock were evaluated and verified by different models (i.e. Bayesian surplus production model [BSPM], continuous time delay‐difference model [CD‐DM] and Fox surplus production model [SPM]). The MSY estimates from BSPM and CD‐DM were lower than those from conventional estimates; the relative biomass ratio (B₂₀₁₁/B_MSY) and relative fishing mortality ratio (F₂₀₁₁/F_MSY) from BSPM and CD‐DM were higher than those from ICCAT, which showed that measures should be taken for the sustainable utilisation of this fish stock.     

Retrospective analysis of the influence of environmental drivers on commercial stocks and fishing opportunities in the Irish Sea

Irish Sea fisheries have undergone considerable change in recent years following the decline of commercially important finfish stocks and their slow response to management's recovery plans. In 2015, the fishing industry called for a holistic exploration into the impact of environmental change and food web effects to identify the drivers underpinning stock dynamics. In this study, we identify correlations between large‐scale climatic indicators, temperature, primary and secondary productivity, and fish recruitment in the Irish Sea and incorporate them into an Ecopath with Ecosim food web model co‐created by scientists and fishers. Negative correlations were found between the North Atlantic Oscillation winter index (NAOw) and large zooplankton abundance and between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the recruitment of cod (Gadus morhua) and whiting (Merlangius merlangus). Using correlation analyses to direct the addition of environmental drivers to the Irish Sea ecosystem model improved the models fit against observed biomass and catch data and revealed the indirect impacts of environmental change as mitigated through trophic interactions. Model simulations suggest that historic environmental change suppressed the overall production of commercial finfish, limiting opportunities for the fishing industry, whilst also dampening the rate of stock recovery despite marked reductions in fishing effort. These results suggest that failure to account for ecosystem information may lead to misconceived expectations and flawed fisheries management; therefore, there is a need to operationalize ecosystem information through management procedures to support fisheries advice.     

东南太平洋茎柔鱼资源丰度灰色预测研究

茎柔鱼(Dosidicus gigas)是东南太平洋头足类中个体最大、资源最丰富的种类之一,经济价值高,已成为我国远洋渔业的重要组成部分。准确的资源丰度预测有利于资源的合理开发和利用。本研究基于2003~2015年东南太平洋茎柔鱼生产统计数据以及其产卵场环境、气候因子资料,使用相关性分析和灰色系统方法,建立东南太平洋茎柔鱼资源丰度的预报模型。结果显示,2月产卵场海表面温度(Sea surface temperature, SST)、3月产卵场叶绿素a浓度(Chl a)、12月太平洋年代气候震荡(Pacific decadal oscillation, PDO)和10月厄尔尼诺指数(Oceanic Nino index, ONI)与茎柔鱼资源丰度具有较好的相关性。比较多种预报模型发现,基于2月SST、12月PDO和10月ONI的GM(1, 4)模型有较好的预测效果,其准确率达到85%以上,可用于东南太平洋茎柔鱼资源丰度的预测。     

Atmospheric forcing drives recruitment variation in the Dungeness crab (Cancer magister), revisited

For 12 yr (1997–2001, 2006–2012) daily abundance of Cancer magister megalopae was measured in Coos Bay, Oregon. Before 2007 from 2000 to 80 000 megalopae were caught annually. In 2007, catch jumped and has since varied from 164 000 to 2.3 million. The step change in catch size appears related to a shift to negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) values. Late season catches, which cannot be due to local spawning, are negatively correlated to the PDO, suggesting that these megalopae derive from north of the California Current. During periods of lower and higher catches, annual returns of megalopae were significantly negatively correlated to the day of the year of the spring transition and positively correlated to the amount of upwelling during the settlement season. The size of the Oregon commercial catch lagged 4 yr to allow for growth of recruits into the fishery is set by the number of returning megalopae; the relationship is parabolic. At lower returns, the population is recruitment limited, but at higher returns, density‐dependent effects predominate and set the commercial catch. Lagged commercial catches in Washington and Northern and Central California were also related to the number of megalopae returning to Coos Bay, suggesting that the forces causing variation in larval success are coast wide. If high return rates are due to a PDO regime shift, then for years to decades the commercial catch may be set by density‐dependent effects following settlement and the huge numbers of returning megalopae may impact benthic community structure.     

Effects of ocean climate on the length and condition of forage fish in the Gulf of Alaska

Climatic drivers of the size and body condition of forage fish in the North Pacific are poorly known. We hypothesized that length and condition of forage fish in the Gulf of Alaska (GoA) vary in relation to ocean temperature on multiple scales. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed morphometric data for capelin (Mallotus catervarius) and Pacific sand lance (PSL; Ammodytes personatus) sampled by a seabird (Cerorhinca monocerata) in two regions of the GoA, 1993–2016. Based on previous studies, we predicted that capelin length and body condition (Fulton's K) would be negatively related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and sea surface temperature (SST), whereas PSL length and condition would be positively related. Interannual variation in length and body condition was evaluated relative to seasonal values of ocean climate using regression. Forage fish length and condition varied interannually, between sampling regions, and were dependent on the size/age class of the fish sampled. As predicted, length and body condition of capelin (mostly age 1+) were negatively related to the PDO and SST. Relationships with ocean climate for PSL varied by size/age class: positive for putative age‐0 fish and negative for putative age‐1+ fish. We conclude that our hypothesis was supported for capelin and partially supported for PSL. This study demonstrates that ocean climate determines key morphometric characteristics of forage fish that may relate to interannual variation in the energetic value of prey, and provides an example of how seabirds can be used to obtain specimens for evaluations of potential prey quality.     

Understanding patterns of distribution shifts and range expansion/contraction for small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) in the Yellow Sea

Detecting and analyzing patterns of distribution shifts and range expansion/contraction is important to understand population dynamics and changes in stock status. Here, we develop a spatio‐temporal model for yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis), which was fitted to bottom trawl survey biomass data collected in the Yellow Sea in the winter of 2001–2017. The model accounts for both spatial and spatio‐temporal structure and can potentially include the effects of surface temperature and of an annual index, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, represented using a recently developed spatially varying coefficient model. We selected a spatio‐temporal model with no covariates based on Akaike's information criterion. The center of gravity for yellow croaker was found to move northwest between 2001 and 2010, and then southwest over the period 2010–2017. These results reflected the predicted progressive disappearance of yellow croaker density hotspots (i.e., highest density areas) in the north and southeast areas of the Yellow Sea, which resulted in the central area of the Yellow Sea becoming the only yellow croaker density hotspot in 2017. This finding has important implications for fisheries management in the context of the China–South Korea fisheries agreement, as it indicates a measurable displacement of yellow croaker biomass toward China. The exclusion of covariates from the spatio‐temporal model was not expected a priori and may be due to the facts that environmental variations are not pronounced in winter in the Yellow Sea and that the representation of spatial and spatio‐temporal structure in spatio‐temporal models accounts for a large proportion of the variability in the data.     

Stock–environment–recruitment models for North Atlantic albacore (Thunnus alalunga)

Different stock–recruitment models were fitted to North Atlantic albacore (Thunnus alalunga) recruitment and spawning stock biomass data. A classical density dependence hypothesis, a recent environmental‐dependence hypothesis and a combination of both were considered. For the latter case, four stock–environment–recruitment models were used: Ricker, Beverton‐Holt, Deriso's General Model (modified to take into account environmental effects) and conditioned Neural Networks. Cross‐validation analysis showed that the modified Deriso model had the best predictive capability. It detected an inverse effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on recruitment, a Ricker‐type behaviour with density dependent overcompensation when environmental conditions are unfavourable and a Beverton–Holt‐type behaviour towards an asymptotic recruitment carrying capacity with favourable environmental conditions. The Neural Network model also detected that under favourable environmental conditions high spawning stock biomass does not necessarily have a depensatory effect on recruitment. Moreover, they suggest that under extremely favourable environmental conditions, albacore recruitment could increase well above the asymptotic carrying capacity predicted by Beverton–Holt‐type models. However, the general decrease in spawning stock biomass in recent years and increasing NAO trends suggest that there is low probability of exceptionally large recruitment in the future and instead there is a danger of recruitment overfishing.     

Migration and behavior of juvenile North Pacific albacore (Thunnus alalunga)

Archival tags were used to study the seasonal movements, migration patterns and vertical distribution of juvenile North Pacific albacore (Thunnus alalunga). Between 2001 and 2006, archival tags were deployed in North Pacific albacore in two regions of the Northeast Pacific: (i) off Northern Baja California, Mexico and Southern California, and (ii) off Washington and Oregon. Twenty archival tagged fish were recovered with times at liberty ranging from 63 to 697 days. Tagged albacore exhibited five distinct, seasonal migratory patterns. Depth and temperature data also showed a broad range of vertical behaviors. In certain regions such as off Baja California, Mexico, juvenile albacore make frequent dives to depths exceeding 200 m during the day and remain in the surface mixed layer at night, whereas off Oregon and Washington they remain near the surface both day and night. Water temperatures encountered ranged from 3.3 to 22.7°C. Peritoneal temperatures were significantly higher by an average of approximately 4°C, as expected in these warm‐bodied fish. This study provides a comprehensive examination of horizontal and vertical movements of juvenile albacore in the Northeast Pacific. The results reveal diverse behavior that varies regionally and seasonally as albacore move among different habitats throughout the entire North Pacific.     

A nonlinear,low data requirement model for producing spatially explicit fishery forecasts

Spatial variability can confound accurate estimates of catch per unit effort (CPUE), especially in highly migratory species. The incorporation of spatial structure into fishery stock assessment models should ultimately improve forecasts of stock biomass. Here, we describe a nonlinear time series model for producing spatially explicit forecasts of CPUE that does not require ancillary environmental or demographic data, or specification of a model functional form. We demonstrate this method using spatially resolved (1° × 1° cells) CPUE time series of North Pacific albacore in the California Current System. The spatial model is highly significant (P < 0.00001) and outperforms two spatial null models. We then create a spatial forecast map for years beyond the range of data. Such approaches can guide spatial management of resources and provide a complement to more data‐intensive, highly parameterized population dynamics and ecosystem models currently in use.