Stochastic modelling as a tool for planning animal-health surveys and interpreting screening-test results

Traditionally, the planning of surveys (in particular, sample-size calculations) has relied on assumptions including the assumption of perfect screening tests. This paper presents a novel approach that can be used for planning animal-health surveys and interpreting screening-test results in the context of these surveys. A stochastic simulation model developed to assess the properties of herd-level sampling schemes and surveys has been adapted for large surveys aimed at substantiating freedom from infection at a national or regional level. We use a Bayesian approach to derive the post-survey probability of freedom from infection from the pre-survey probability of freedom and the likelihood ratio that is associated with screening-test results. We applied the model to two consecutive surveys conducted in 1998 and 1999 in Switzerland to substantiate freedom from infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) in the cattle population of about 56000 herds (median herd size of 15 cattle > 2 yr of age in 1999). In 1998, serum samples were taken from five cattle > 2 yr in 4672 herds, and in 1999 from all cattle > 2 yr old in 648 herds; samples were analysed by ELISA. The survey of 1999 provided less evidence than that of 1998 to support a status of freedom from infection; also, the characteristics of both herd-level sampling schemes were similar. We argue that the rationale for survey planning depends on the pre-survey probability of freedom from infection (i.e. our level of confidence that the infection does not occur in the targeted animal population). In consequence, surveys should be tailored to individual populations in the respective countries or regions. The model has been developed in an Excel spreadsheet to allow flexibility of use, and adaptation to many other animal-health issues.     

Modelling the effect of surveillance programmes on spread of bovine herpesvirus 1 between certified cattle herds

For the eradication of an infectious agent, like bovine herpesvirus 1 (BHV-1), surveillance and certification can be used to reduce the transmission between herds. The goal of surveillance is that a certified herd that becomes infected is detected timely so that infection of several other certified herds is prevented. What counts is whether the reproduction ratio R, i.e. the average number of certified herds infected by one infected certified herd can be kept below 1. To support policy makers in making decisions about the minimal demands for a surveillance programme in an eradication campaign of BHV-1 in cattle, two mathematical models were investigated. With these models, the basic reproduction ratio between herds was calculated. The surveillance programmes were characterised with sample size, sampling frequency, test sensitivity, herd size, vaccination status, and contacts between herds. When R between herds is below 1, then the surveillance programme is sufficiently good to prevent spread of infection, provided that R is estimated well. In the model based on bulk milk testing sample size was replaced by a threshold at which bulk milk can be found positive. The R between herds was mainly influenced by the vaccination status, sampling frequency, and contacts between herds. Herd size moderately affected the outcome. Test sensitivity and sample size, however, were of minor importance. If herds of 50 cows became free of BHV-1 without vaccination, then spread of infection between herds might be prevented when animals within herds are sampled once a year (milk or blood samples). This frequency needs to be intensified, being twice a year, for larger herds and/or herds with extensive contacts with other herds. When bulk milk is sampled instead, sampling should be done at least every 5 months and more intensively, being each month, with larger herd sizes and more contacts between herds.     

A comparison of different models for assessing variations in the sero-prevalence of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis by farm, area and district in Kenya

The relative variability of the sero-prevalence of antibodies to infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) due to cow, farm, and agroecological area levels were investigated for three contrasting districts in Kenya: Samburu, an arid and pastoral area; Kiambu, a tropical highland area; and Kilifi, a typical tropical coastal area. Cattle were selected by two-stage cluster sampling and visited once between August 1991 and 1992. Data on animal, farm, and area factors were analyzed using Schall's algorithm and MLn (multi-level, n-level), two generalized mixed-model programs suitable for multi-level analysis. Most variation in IBR sero-prevalence was from farm-to-furm. This was reflected by the many farm-level fixed effects (farm size, disease control measures and type of breeding) significant in models both ignoring and accounting for single variance components (clustering) at farm, area, and district levels. Area-to-area and district-to-district variations were noted but the area and district variance components were one-third and one-fifth the size of the farm variance components for both methods. As farm-to-farm variation differed markedly by farm size and district, models in MLn were extended to allow for multiple farm-level variance components by these categories. For each, sero-prevalence of IBR increased with age and was significantly decreased on small-sized zero-grazing farms. These models, particularly the model with different farm variance components by districts, fit the data better and highlighted well that there was considerable farm-to-farm variation—differing by district—and that the available farm-level fixed effects did not predict IBR sero-prevalence well.     

Estimating the financial losses due to bovine fasciolosis in Switzerland

In dairy cattle in Switzerland, the prevalence of infection with Fasciola hepatica is over 16 per cent. Previous studies have suggested that even subclinical infections with liver fluke may induce significant reductions in the performance of cattle. The financial losses attributable to F hepatica were estimated using a simple spreadsheet model to sum the individual losses that have been suggested in the literature. Because there is substantial variability in these production losses, Monte Carlo sampling techniques were used to model this variability. Each cost item and each data item related to the prevalence of F hepatica was assigned a mathematical distribution which took account of the variability of the experimental data and/or the sample size of the data. A total of 10,000 simulations were undertaken, with each item randomly varied through its mathematical distribution on each simulation. The results suggest that the median financial loss due to bovine fasciolosis in Switzerland is approximately 52 million, with probable 95 per cent confidence limits ranging from 22 million to 92 million per annum, which represents a median loss of 299 per infected animal. Most of the losses arise from reduced milk yield and reduced fertility, and smaller losses are due to reduced meat production and the condemnation of livers.     

Risk factor analysis of bovine leukemia virus infection in dairy cattle in Egypt

Identification of the risk factors associated with Enzootic bovine leukosis (EBL) is essential for the adoption of potentially prevention strategies. Accordingly, our objectives were to determine the geographic distribution of Bovine Leukemia Virus (BLV) infection and identify the risk factors associated with cow-level BLV infection in the Egyptian dairy cattle. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 1299 mixed breed cows distributed over four provinces in the Nile Delta of Egypt in 2018. The randomly selected cows on each farm were serologically tested for BLV, and the cow’s information was obtained from the farm records. Four variables (geographic location, herd size, number of parities, and age) were used for risk analysis. A total of 230 serum samples (17.7 %) were serologically positive for BLV. The highest prevalence of BLV infection was associated with parity (OR = 3.4, 95 %CI 2.4–4.9) with 80 % probability of being BLV-positive at parity ≥5, followed by herd size (OR = 1.8, 95 %CI 1.4–2.2). However, geographic location seems to have no impact on the prevalence of BLV infection in Egypt. Our findings strongly indicate that the intensive surveillance and effective prevention strategies against BLV infection in Egypt should be provided to multiparous cows with ≥5 parities and live in large farm with more than 200 cows.     

Seroprevalence of and risk factors for infectious bovine rhinotracheitis in beef cattle herds of Yucatan,Mexico

The main objective of this cross-sectional study was to estimate the seroprevalence of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) in a population of non-vaccinated beef cattle in the livestock region of Yucatan, Mexico and to determine potential risk factors related to the seroprevalence. Also, we estimated the intraherd correlation (r_e) and design effect (D) of IBR seropositivity. Cattle were selected by two-stage cluster sampling. Blood samples were collected from 564 animals from 35 herds. Sera were tested for antibodies against IBR using the serum-neutralisation test. Information regarding the herd and each animal sampled were recorded through a personal interview with the farmer or farm manager. The data were analysed using fixed-effects logistic multiple regression. Thirty-four of the 35 herds had at least one seropositive animal. The animal true seroprevalence was 54.4%. Animals in large herds or in production had higher odds of seropositivity than those in small herds or growing. The r_e and D were 0.17 and 3.62, respectively.     

Policy-driven development of cost-effective, risk-based surveillance strategies

Animal health and residue surveillance verifies the good health status of the animal population, thereby supporting international free trade of animals and animal products. However, active surveillance is costly and time-consuming. The development of cost-effective tools for animal health and food hazard surveillance is therefore a priority for decision-makers in the field of veterinary public health. The assumption of this paper is that outcome-based formulation of standards, legislation leaving room for risk-based approaches and close collaboration and a mutual understanding and exchange between scientists and policy makers are essential for cost-effective surveillance. We illustrate this using the following examples: (i) a risk-based sample size calculation for surveys to substantiate freedom from diseases/infection, (ii) a cost-effective national surveillance system for Bluetongue using scenario tree modelling and (iii) a framework for risk-based residue monitoring. Surveys to substantiate freedom from infectious bovine rhinotracheitis and enzootic bovine leucosis between 2002 and 2009 saved over 6 million € by applying a risk-based sample size calculation approach, and by taking into account prior information from repeated surveys. An open, progressive policy making process stimulates research and science to develop risk-based and cost-efficient survey methodologies. Early involvement of policy makers in scientific developments facilitates implementation of new findings and full exploitation of benefits for producers and consumers.     

Prevalence of brucellosis and infectious bovine rhinotracheitis in organized dairy farms in India

This study was carried out to investigate the prevalence of bovine brucellosis and infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) in organized dairy farms with history of abortion in India. ELISA and Rose Bengal Plate Test (RBPT) were used to detect the seropositive animals and the test results indicated that 22.18% and 13.78% animals were declared as sero-positive by ELISA and RBPT, respectively. Milk Ring Test (MRT) was carried out only in one farm and 12.82% of the tested animals were turned positive. Culture examination analysis of milk samples, two animals revealed the presence of organisms indistinguishable from Brucella spp. The organism was confirmed as brucella by morphological characteristics and biochemical tests. An overall sero-prevalence of antibodies against IBR was found to be 60.84%. None of the genital and nasal swab samples was found to be positive for presence of bovine herpesvirus -1 (BHV-1) on repeated passage in Madin-Darby Bovine Kidney (MDBK) cell lines. Brucella and IBR considered as the causal agent for abortions in these farms. The present study indicates the urgent need and the necessity for control of these infectious diseases which cause heavy economic losses to the organized farms.     

Control and eradication programme of enzootic bovine leucosis (EBL) from selected dairy herds in Turkey

Serum samples of 15,909 cattle from 31 dairy herds located in various regions of Turkey were tested for the presence of antibodies against bovine leucosis virus (BLV) using Agar Gel Immuno-diffusion technique (AGID). 48.3% (15/31) of the herds had seropositive animals and positivity rates were detected from 0.5-34.4% in these herds. In an EBL control/eradication programme all seropositive animals were culled in the infected herds. Thereafter, a total of 74,347 sera were tested for the presence of BLV specific antibodies. The serological results and detail of EBL control/eradication programme were shown in this paper.     

蚌埠市某奶牛场IBRV和BVDV的血清学调查

本试验对蚌埠市一家未进行牛传染性鼻气管炎及病毒性腹泻免疫的规模化奶牛场的94份奶牛血清样品,分别使用牛传染性鼻气管炎及病毒性腹泻抗体ELISA试剂盒进行检测,共检出牛传染性鼻气管炎阳性血清65份,阳性检出率为69．15％;病毒性腹泻阳性血清83份,阳性检出率为88．30％。结果表明,该规模化奶牛场存在牛传染性鼻气管炎及病毒性腹泻的感染和接触史,应采取净化措施进行控制。     

The eradication experience of enzootic bovine leukosis from Lithuania

Before 1985 the situation regarding enzootic bovine leukosis (EBL) in Lithuanian cattle was described only haphazardly. In 1986 serological investigations were initiated together with an eradication programme. The EBL bovine leukosis virus (BLV) situation was monitored by the Institute of Immunology Vilnius University, national and regional veterinary laboratories. Starting in 1986 all EBL-positive cattle were separated from negative cattle into BLV-infected and BLV-free herds. To create the latter, calves were fed pasteurized milk. The seroprevalence in 1990 was 7.29%, but it steadily declined to 0.32% in 2006.     

The control of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) in Switzerland from 1978 to 1988

The eradication of Infectious bovine rhinotracheitis/Infectious pustular vulvovaginitis (IBR/IPV) in Switzerland is reviewed. In 1978 IBR was reported in dairy cattle in the Eastern part of Switzerland. No preexisting eradication program was available at that time. In 1983, following a period of hesitation, the legal basis for the eradication of IBR was issued. This aim was achieved by: i) Controls and restrictions of the traffic of susceptible animals in order to prevent further transmission of IBR. ii) Slaughter of seropositive cattle, based on the assumption that animals with antibodies to BHV 1 were virus carriers and therefore an IBR-virus-reservoir. iii) The fact that besides the cattle population no BHV 1 reservoir existed in Switzerland. iv) Never licensing IBR-vaccines because they were not able to prevent the infection and the establishment of latency. The costs of the eradication program amounted to approx. SFr. 114,000,000. A total of 51,911 animals were slaughtered in order to eradicate IBR. An amount of SFr. 5,000,000 per annum is estimated to be necessary in order to maintain the favourable situation concerning IBR. In the future, the experience concerning IBR is applied for the prevention and control of other infectious diseases in the Swiss cattle population.     

Seroconversion to bovine viral diarrhoea virus and infectious bovine rhinotracheitis virus in dairy herds of Michoacan, Mexico

Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) and infectious bovine rhinotracheitis virus (IBRV) are important viral diseases around the world. The objective of this study was to estimate the incidence of seroconversion to BVDV and IBRV and to identify associated risk factors in dairy herds of Michoacan, Mexico. The longitudinal study included 62 herds and ran from December 2001 to November 2002. The total number of animals enrolled and completing the study were 392 and 342 animals for BVDV and 925 and 899 animals for IBRV. Animals were tested monthly for 12 months, for the presence of antibodies. Risk factors were: herd size (2–9, 10–25 and 26–55 animals), herd serostatus (seropositive or seronegative, only for IBRV), age group of the animal (6 to 12, 13 to 24, 25 to 48 and > 48 months) and animal origin (born in farm, purchased). The cumulative incidences for BVDV and IBRV were 16.4% and 3.4%, respectively; whereas, the incidence density rates for BVDV and IBRV were 15.9 and 2.9 per 1000 animal-months at risk, respectively. Seroconversion curves were statistically different for age group for BVDV and IBRV and for herd status for IBR. The relatively high incidence of seroconversion for BVDV suggests that a successful control programme should be oriented towards the identification and elimination of the PI animals and towards avoiding the introduction of PI cattle to the farm. The scenario of IBRV is favourable to implement a programme directed to reduce the number of new seropositive herds.     

Eradication of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis in Switzerland: review and prospects

Ten years after the first outbreak of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) in Swiss dairy cows, the national cattle herd is almost free from infection with IBR virus (bovine herpesvirus 1, BHV 1). The national programme for the eradication of IBR was divided into four phases: (1) Prevention of transmission of the infection by restrictions on trade of bovines and assessment of the prevalence of cattle with antibodies to BHV 1. (2) Slaughtering animals with antibodies to BHV 1 in order to eradicate BHV 1 from breeding herds. (3) Detection and eradication of further BHV 1 reservoirs (e.g. fattening cattle). (4) Monitoring programme and legal actions in order to maintain the favourable situation. Approximately 50,000 animals were slaughtered in the course of the eradication of IBR. The total costs amounted to approximately SFr. 110,000,000 over 10 years. The costs for maintaining the situation are estimated at approximately SFr. 5,000,000 per annum.     

Evaluation of surveillance and sample collection methods to document freedom from infectious bovine rhinotracheitis in cattle populations

OBJECTIVES: To assess the sensitivity of the current surveillance program used in Denmark for detecting outbreaks of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) at the herd level and to evaluate the impact of alternative sample collection strategies on the sensitivity of the system in an acceptable time frame. SAMPLE POPULATION: Data from the Danish Central Husbandry Register on cattle of 24,355 and 25,233 beef herds and on 13,034 and 12,003 dairy herds in the years 2000 and 2001, respectively. PROCEDURES: Surveillance programs were evaluated under current sample collection conditions and under 3 alternative scenarios by use of simulation modeling. Data from the current detection component of the surveillance system were used as input, taking into consideration the sensitivity and specificity of bulktank milk and serologic testing. RESULTS:The current system identifies infected dairy herds within a 3-month period with desired accuracy largely because of the test characteristics and number of bulk-tank milk samples. The system is less likely to detect infected beef herds in a timely manner because surveillance in beef herds depends solely on serologic testing at the time of slaughter. The efficiency of surveillance in dairy cattle herds was not decreased substantially when the slaughter-surveillance component was omitted. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE:Geographically targeted sample collection during the high-risk season (winter) was predicted to increase the probability of rapid detection of IBR infection in cattle. This approach can be used for assessing other surveillance systems to determine the best strategies for detection of infected herds.     

Eradication of enzootic bovine leukosis from Finland

Enzootic bovine leukosis (EBL) was recognized among Finnish cattle in 1966. Administrative decisions specifying and refining official control measures were given in 1966, 1976, 1980, and 1993. The measures' key principle always has been 'test and slaughter'. The EBL/bovine leukosis virus (BLV) infection situation was monitored at meat inspection, and hematologically between 1970 and 1977 and serologically between 1978 and 1989. Annual surveys including all dairy herds and samples from beef animals were conducted in 1990-2001. Bulk-tank milk samples represented the dairy herds in the surveys; the beef animals were sampled individually at slaughter. The maximum positive herd-level percentage in the surveys was 0.03%. EBL/BLV infection was evenly dispersed in the southern part of the country and nonexistent in the northern part. We conclude that herd-level prevalence of EBL/BLV infection never exceeded 5%. It nevertheless took 30 years to eradicate the disease and the infection. EBL was eradicated from mainland Finland in 1996 and from the island district of Ahvenanmaa in 1999. Annual monitoring of the EBL situation continues.     

Seroprevalence of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis and bovine viral diarrhea virus type 1 and type 2 in non-vaccinated cattle herds in the Pacific Region of Central Costa Rica

The objectives of this cross-sectional study were to estimate the seroprevalence of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR, BHV-1) and bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in a population of non-vaccinated, double purpose, dairy and beef herds in the Pacific Region of Central Costa Rica. Blood samples were collected from a total of 496 animals from 35 herds. Sera were tested for antibodies against BHV-1(IBR) and BVDV types 1 and 2 using serum neutralization test. The average number of animals tested in each herd for each of the viruses was 14. Overall individual seroprevalence was 48%, 27%, and 19% for IBR, BVDV type 1, and BVDV type 2, respectively. Median within-herd seroprevalence for IBR, BVDV type 1 and type 2 were 43%, 27%, and 24%, respectively.     

规模化奶牛场犊牛腹泻的病原检测与分析报告

为了调查某规模化奶牛场犊牛腹泻的发病原因,试验采用血清抗体检测、细菌分离培养、寄生虫卵镜检和病毒核酸检测方法对腹泻犊牛的血样和粪便进行了检查。结果表明,该奶牛场牛病毒性腹泻/黏膜病病毒抗体阳性率为65.00%,牛轮状病毒抗体阳性率25.00%,牛冠状病毒抗体阳性率15.00%;分离到1 株结肠弯曲杆菌和1 株空肠弯曲杆菌;所检腹泻犊牛粪便和血液样品中,4 份粪便样品和1 份血液样品检出牛冠状病毒,2 份粪便样品检出轮状病毒,1 份粪便样品和1 份血液样品检出牛病毒性腹泻/黏膜病病毒,同一份粪便样品中同时检出牛病毒性腹泻/黏膜病病毒和牛冠状病毒;通过镜检,球虫卵囊检出率77.78%,在1 份粪样中发现蛔虫卵,2 份粪样中发现其他线虫卵。该牛场流行性腹泻的原因可能为夏季高温潮湿引起犊牛免疫力下降导致的多病原体感染。     

Neutralizing antibodies to bovine herpesvirus 1 in reindeer

Serum samples from cattle and reindeer in Lapland were examined for neutralizing antibodies to the IBR/IPV virus. All the bovine sera tested were negative. The reindeer sera were tested using 2 different virus neutralization methods differing in the serum-virus incubation time prior to inoculation into tissue culture tubes. 12.6 % of the samples tested with a preincubation of 1 h at 37°C were positive, whereas 23 % of those tested with a preincubation time of 24 h at 37°C were positive. The fairly high prevalence of antibodies to IBR/IPV in the reindeer population in Finland indicates the occurrence of the IBR/IPV virus or a closely related cross-reacting herpesvirus.