Modeling the impact of HIV/AIDS upon food security of diverse rural households in Western Kenya

Although the impact of HIV/AIDS upon rural smallholder food security in sub-Saharan Africa is understood to be severe and multi-faceted, few empirical studies have undertaken the task of identifying upon which types of households the impact is most severe. In order to understand and examine the impact of HIV/AIDS upon food security of rural households in Western Kenya, an ethnographic linear programming model was developed to simulate household responses to an adult household member contracting HIV. Three male-headed households and one female-headed household with dynamic compositions and representative of the diversity of households in Amukura, Teso District, were simulated. Findings highlighted that the initial stage of HIV infection was the most devastating time for households as HIV infection of an adult member was a shock for which households were ill-prepared. Results further indicated that household food insecurity was more severe in Amukura when an adult female contracted HIV than when an adult male contracted HIV. In particular, household food availability and utilization were more severely reduced when an adult female contracted HIV. Reductions in available female labor critically undermined household food production to a greater degree than reductions in available male labor. This was compounded by the gender division of labor on certain agricultural tasks as well as the inability of adult males to rapidly change their agricultural activities due to labor requirements to maintain long-term investments in sugar cane and animal production. Food access was also reduced under both HIV+ models and was linked to both declining food availability and end-of-year cash. The severity of impact of HIV upon food access depended upon resources available to an individual household. Impacts of HIV upon household agricultural activities in Amukura are therefore dynamic, multiple and diverse. If interventions to counter the impact of HIV on a community are to be successful, there is an urgent need for organizations and governments to adopt holistic approaches to development which appreciate the complexity and diversity of livelihood systems.     

The diversity of rural livelihoods and their influence on soil fertility in agricultural systems of East Africa - A typology of smallholder farms

Technological interventions to address the problem of poor productivity of smallholder agricultural systems must be designed to target socially diverse and spatially heterogeneous farms and farming systems. This paper proposes a categorisation of household diversity based on a functional typology of livelihood strategies, and analyses the influence of such diversity on current soil fertility status and spatial variability on a sample of 250 randomly selected farms from six districts of Kenya and Uganda. In spite of the agro-ecological and socio-economic diversity observed across the region (e.g. 4 months year⁻¹ of food self-sufficiency in Vihiga, Kenya vs. 10 in Tororo, Uganda) consistent patterns of variability were also observed. For example, all the households with less than 3 months year⁻¹ of food self-sufficiency had a land:labour ratio (LLR) < 1, and all those with LLR > 1 produced enough food to cover their diet for at least 5 months. Households with LLR < 1 were also those who generated more than 50% of their total income outside the farm. Dependence on off/non-farm income was one of the main factors associated with household diversity. Based on indicators of resource endowment and income strategies and using principal component analysis, farmers’ rankings and cluster analysis the 250 households surveyed were grouped into five farm types: (1) Farms that rely mainly on permanent off-farm employment (from 10 to 28% of the farmers interviewed, according to site); (2) larger, wealthier farms growing cash crops (8-20%); (3) medium resource endowment, food self-sufficient farms (20-38%); (4) medium to low resource endowment relying partly on non-farm activities (18-30%); and (5) poor households with family members employed locally as agricultural labourers by wealthier farmers (13-25%). Due to differential soil management over long periods of time, and to ample diversity in resource endowments (land, livestock, labour) and access to cash, the five farm types exhibited different soil carbon and nutrient stocks (e.g. Type 2 farms had average C, N, P and K stocks that were 2-3 times larger than for Types 4 or 5). In general, soil spatial variability was larger in farms (and sites) with poorer soils and smaller in farms owning livestock. The five farm types identified may be seen as domains to target technological innovations and/or development efforts.     

Policy reforms,rice production and sustainable land use in China: A macro–micro analysis

This paper presents a macro–micro analysis of the impact of policy reforms in China on agricultural production, input use and soil quality change for a major rice-producing area, namely Jiangxi province. This is done in three steps. First, a quantitative assessment is made of the impact of market liberalization policies on the economic environment of farm households in Jiangxi province. Econometric analyses based on provincial, national and world market data are used to explain changes in rice and fertilizer prices in Jiangxi province over time. Next, the impact of China’s recent income support policy and latest price trends on farm household choices with respect to activity choice (particularly rice and livestock) and input use (fertilizers, pesticides, manure) is assessed for two villages with different degrees of market access in north-east Jiangxi province. Two village-level general equilibrium models are used to analyse household decision-making and interactions between households within these villages. The parameters are estimated and calibrated from an extensive survey held in these villages in the year 2000. Finally, the impact of land tenure policy on farm management decisions (labour, manure and chemical input use), soil quality (available P and K and total N and C) and rice yields is analysed through an econometric analysis of plot-level data for three villages. Two-stage least squares (2SLS) is used to control for interactions with yields and for feedbacks towards input use. The paper ends with a number of suggestions for policy adjustments that would reduce the problem of natural soil compaction in the research area.     

Bio-economic evaluation of farmers’ perceptions of viable farms in western Kenya

Arable land in western Kenya is under considerable pressure from increasing human population. Rural households depend on farming for at least part of their livelihood, and poverty rates are among the highest in Kenya. Land is often depleted of nutrients, and for most farmers, access to inputs and markets is poor. There is a need to identify options that are manageable within the context of the farmer’s resource base and the household’s objectives that could improve farm household well-being. In this study we integrated qualitative informal participatory approaches with quantitative mathematical programming and biophysical simulation modelling. Households in four sub-locations in Vihiga District were clustered and pilot cases identified. Meetings were held with farmers to elicit their perceptions of what their ideal farm would look like, and how its performance might compare with their own farm’s performance. With farmers’ help, a range of scenarios was analysed, relating to changes in current enterprise mixes, changes in current farm sizes, and changes in prices of staples foods and cash crops. A considerable mismatch was found between farmers’ estimates of their own farm’s performance, and what was actually produced. There seems to be a threshold in farm size of 0.4 ha, below which it is very difficult for households to satisfy their income and food security objectives. Even for larger farms whose households are largely dependent on agriculture, the importance of a cash crop in the system is critical. There is a crucial role for extension services in making farmers aware of the potential impacts on farm revenue of modest changes in their farm management systems. We are monitoring nine households in the district, whose farmers have made some changes to their system in an attempt to increase household income and enhance food security.     

吕梁市集体林权制度改革探讨

集体林权制度改革是继家庭联产承包责任制之后中国农村经营制度的又一次重大变革,必然对农村发展乃至经济社会发展产生重大而深远的影响。它不仅有利于促进林业发展、农民增收,而且有利于改善生态环境。林权制度改革是一个复杂的过程,它的任务就是要依法明晰产权,放活经营权,落实处置权,保障收益权,并通过发林权证来落实这4个“权”。2009年,山西吕梁市开始集体林权制度改革。该文对近3年来林权改革工作中出现的问题总结出一些解决问题的方法。      

Livelihoods and agro-ecological gradients: A meso-level analysis in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, India

Rice-wheat systems in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) have long exemplified South Asia’s agricultural transformation through the Green Revolution. The same systems now also typify the post-Green Revolution stagnation and equity challenges, despite receiving considerable attention from the research and development (R&D) community. The apparent homogeneity of vast irrigated plains masks significant diversity in assets, livelihood strategies and livelihood outcomes. The paper analyzes the rural livelihoods and underlying agro-ecological gradients in the IGP drawing on village surveys and secondary data as characterization tools. The contribution of the paper is twofold: (i) new knowledge of the socio-economic circumstances in farming communities across the Indian IGP to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of R&D interventions and particularly poverty alleviation; and (ii) an illustration of a novel approach to operationalize livelihood analysis at the meso-level so as to address spatial scale issues and link micro-level contextual realities across a vast geographical area. The agricultural R&D community needs to incorporate this socio-economic diversity more proactively into its R&D agenda if it is to succeed in sustaining productivity gains, improving rural livelihoods equitably, and securing environmental sustainability in this important eco-region.     

A resource demand model of indigenous production: The Jivaroan cultivation systems of Western Amazonia

This study examines the demand for land resources and agricultural production in the lower Pastaza River Basin of the Ecuadorian Amazon. Specifically, we concentrate on two territories controlled by Jivaroan indigenous groups. First, the analysis compares the structural characteristics of riverine and interfluvial cultivation systems in the region. Second, the study investigates the connections between agricultural intensity, population pressure and composition, and terrain conditions at the household level through the integration of geographic information systems, remote sensing, socio-economic surveys, and regression analyses. The study shows that although cultivation practices and the proportion between consumers and producers at the household level are not significantly different among riverine and interfluvial groups, riverine cultivators produce more intensively than interfluvial landholders. In general, the demand for agricultural production at a household level is positively correlated with population pressure and soil quality. In this region, the extent of cultivation is significantly associated with the proportion between consumers and producers along the household’s developmental cycle. These findings provide support for the view that land use intensification among indigenous peoples is similar to the dynamic among non-indigenous market-oriented producers.     

不同生计策略选择对农户多维贫困的影响研究

探讨生计策略选择对降低农户多维贫困有重要意义。基于2019年新疆维吾尔自治区塔城市额敏县305户农户的调查数据,分析不同生计策略选择对农户多维贫困的影响。首先基于可行能力理论,运用A-F方法测算出多维贫困指数,识别脱贫农户的多维贫困。其次,采用倾向得分匹配法,分析不同生计策略对多维贫困的缓解效应。最后基于生计可持续框架,采用Probit回归模型,探讨选择不同生计策略的农户所拥有的生计资本对农户多维贫困的影响。实证结果表明,选择非农主导型生计策略的农户更能缓解农户的多维贫困,平均处理效应为-18.07%。此外人力资本对选择3个不同的生计策略农户的多维贫困均有缓解,金融资本有利于缓解农业型农户和非农业型农户的多维贫困,物质资本不利于缓解兼业型农户的多维贫困。     

水利现代化的战略绩效评价及模型探析

水利现代化建设是我国新时期水利事业开展的新战略,各地区都围绕各自的实际情况,制定了水利现代化建设的战略和方案,构建合理的水利现代化绩效评价体系至关重要。本文通过分析现有的水利现代化绩效评价的现状和问题,针对目前评价体系出现的“偏离战略”、“结果导向”、“偏重经济指标”等局限性,提出了水利现代化战略绩效评价的理念,并探索用平衡计分卡的方法构建水利现代化战略绩效评价模型。     

Making a living: Land pressures and changing livelihood strategies among oil palm settlers in Papua New Guinea

Since the establishment of oil palm land settlement schemes (LSSs) in West New Britain Province, Papua New Guinea, the settler population has increased significantly as second-generation settlers marry and raise families on their parents’ blocks. We explore how settlers are responding to demographic and socio-economic change in an environment in which opportunities for land-use change are limited. In the context of rising population pressure, LSS smallholders are developing innovative livelihood strategies by pursuing non-farm income sources, increasing food production, acquiring additional land and migration. The type of migration or land accumulation strategy depends on household access to various resources, especially social and kinship networks, and capital. Agricultural extension and rural development policies have not yet responded to this socio-agronomic transformation. We conclude that economic diversification amongst smallholders creates new opportunities for the oil palm industry to formulate more innovative and sustainable policies that strengthen the oil palm industry in PNG while facilitating broad-based rural development.     

An integrated modelling toolbox for water resources assessment and management in highland catchments: Model description

Water and land resource competition and environmental degradation pose difficult questions for resource managers. In particular, the ensuing trade-offs between economic, environmental, and social factors and their spatiotemporal variability must be considered when implementing management policies. This paper describes an integrated modelling toolbox that has been developed for highland catchments – specifically the Mae Chaem catchment in Northern Thailand. This toolbox contains models of crop growth, erosion and rainfall-runoff, as well as household decision and socioeconomic impact models. The approach described advances and complements previous approaches by: considering more complex interactions between land-use decisions and the hydrological cycle; modelling household decisions based on uncertain expectations; and assessing impacts of changes not only on flows and household income, but also on subsistence production and erosion. An example of the types of trade-offs and scenarios that can be assessed using the integrated modelling toolbox is also presented. This demonstrates that for the scenarios presented, the magnitude and direction of impacts simulated by the model is not dependent on climate. Further testing of the model is demonstrated in a companion paper. Overall, the plausibility of the model is shown.     

Multi-scale analysis of agricultural development: A modelling approach for Ilocos Norte,Philippines

Decisions and policies that have implications on allocation of resources are made at different levels. Goals at different scales may be conflicting and decisions at one scale have consequences for those at other scales. Performing analyses at more than one scale is, therefore necessary in analysing future options for resource use. This paper illustrates the use of a multi-scale method enabling assessment of multi-purpose natural resource management options. Three examples of analyses that it allows are presented for Ilocos Norte province in the Philippines, at the farm household, municipal (Batac municipality) and provincial levels. Results show that: (1) Differences in resource endowments of farm households strongly affect the potential adoption rates of five well-defined alternative technologies. (2) Limited markets, inadequate infrastructure and resource endowments of farm households have large effects on resource use and goal achievement in the municipality. Not including these factors in a resource use analysis results in a so-called aggregation bias. As these are significant, ignoring them may result in misleading simulation results and policy conclusions. The aggregation bias resulting from assuming spatially fixed input and output prices is significant for Batac, which has poor farm-to-market roads. This suggests large potential benefits from improving infrastructure. The factors investigated suggest that aggregate income in the municipality is most strongly affected by the size of the market for some vegetables. (3) The differences in resource allocations resulting from prioritizing objectives at different levels reveal potential conflicts. The municipal income was highest with crops which pose more risk to farmers; our farm household analysis shows that farmers tend not to select too much of these crops. Similarly, the provincial income is highest when resources in the province are allocated such that more of the staple crop rice and less of the highly profitable cash crops are cultivated in Batac, resulting in lower income for the municipality.     

Poverty reduction with irrigation investment: An empirical case study from Tigray, Ethiopia

The regional government of Tigray has invested millions of dollars to develop irrigation schemes as a strategy of poverty reduction. However, there has been limited attempt to analyze whether these investments have attained their stated objectives of poverty reduction and overall socio-economic enhancement. Therefore, we endeavor to: (1) evaluate the impacts of access to small-scale irrigation on farm household's income and poverty status, (2) contribute to the scant literature on irrigation and poverty reduction in Ethiopia, and (3) provide information for policy makers. We examine a representative sample of 613 farm households (331 irrigators and 282 non-irrigators) drawn using three-stage stratified sampling with Probability Proportional to Size. We find that the average income of non-irrigating households is less than that of the irrigating households by about 50%. The overall average income gain due to access to irrigation ranges from 4000 Birr to 4500 Birr per household per annum. We find also that farming income is more important to irrigating households than to non-irrigating households, and off-farm income is negatively related with access to irrigation.     

Poverty dynamics and the role of livestock in the Peruvian Andes

Livestock play an important role for poor rural households in regions such as the Peruvian Andes. Research methods leading to a better understanding of the role of livestock in household poverty dynamics, and what better targeted policies and interventions may enhance that role, however, are not readily available. We utilized multiple methods, including Stages-of-Progress and household surveys, which gave us a combination of qualitative and quantitative results. We examined how over the last 10 and 25 years households have moved into and out of poverty in 40 rural communities in two different highland regions of Peru. We also examined the role played in these movements by different livestock assets and strategies. We found a significant number of households had escaped poverty, while at the same time many households have fallen into poverty. The reasons for movements up versus down are not the same, with different strategies and policies needed to address escapes versus descents. Diversification of income through livestock and intensification of livestock activities through improved breeds has helped many households escape poverty and this method allowed us to explore what exactly this means in the diverse areas studied. These findings can contribute to better targeted livestock-related research and development strategies and policies, not only in Peru, but in other regions where similar livelihood strategies are being pursued.     

Agrarian policies for sustainable land use: bio-economic modelling to assess the effectiveness of policy instruments

This article presents a bio-economic modelling approach for the assessment of the effectiveness of different agrarian policies to improve farm household income and soil fertility. Farm household decisions on allocation of land, labour and capital resources for crop and production technique choice are simulated, taking into account resource availability, household objectives and prevailing market conditions. The modelling framework relies on a combination of three procedures: (1) farm household modelling, (2) linear programming, and (3) partial equilibrium analysis. These procedures are applied to evaluate the impact at farm household and regional level of technology improvement and a variety of policy instruments: improvement of infrastructure, price support, land policy and credit schemes. Regional aggregation allows prices to be determined endogenously on regional markets. The approach is applied to the Cercle de Koutiala in Mali, for which selected results are given as an example. Results indicate that technology alone cannot sufficiently induce farmers to adopt sustainable production systems. Additional economic incentives are necessary to foster technological change.     

Water user associations in Inner Mongolia: Factors that influence farmers to join

Irrigation districts in Inner Mongolia face problems that are familiar to irrigation areas around the world: shortage of water resources, poor management of water, inefficient use of water resources, and imbalance of financial revenues and expenditures. Water user associations have been promoted to address water supply problems and to encourage efficient water use. In this study, farmers from three distinct areas in Inner Mongolia were surveyed to determine their level of understanding of water user associations and the factors that affect their becoming members. A majority of respondents thought that water user associations were useful to safeguard farmers’ interests, to help reduce labour inputs and disputes about water, to reduce irrigation costs, and to promote efficient water use. The factors found to be most important were: (1) being a village cadre; (2) good state of health; (3) high degree of understanding about water user associations; (4) small percentage of the household in the labour force; (5) cropping income a high percentage of family income; (6) having had previous conflicts involving water use issues.     

区域间用水结构演变及影响因子

我国区域间水资源量差异较大,而水资源的有效利用是我国经济社会发展的重要战略问题。为准确预测用水结构,基于2004—2018年数据,采用信息熵及主成分分析方法,分别从我国东北部、东部、中部和西部4大经济区中选取吉林、浙江、山东、湖南、四川和新疆6个省（自治区）的用水结构作为研究对象,分析其用水结构的演变过程及影响因子。结果表明:山东的用水结构均衡度呈递增趋势,其用水结构愈来愈趋于合理,而新疆的用水结构均衡度持续偏低,其他4省均无明显变化;用水结构的主要影响因子是经济社会发展、人口增长、节水技术、水资源禀赋及生态环境维护。最后,从产业结构、农业节水、生活用水、环境维护用水多元化等方面为优化用水结构提出建议。      

黑龙江省农机合作社助农增收绩效评价——基于DID模型的实证研究

使用DID模型来评价黑龙江省农机合作社助农增收的绩效,模型估计结果表明:农机合作社社员与非社员相比,农户家庭总收入、工资性收入、财产性收入、转移性收入显著增加,经营性收入显著减少。因此,农机合作社作为新型农业经营主体,在助农增收方面效果显著。引入控制变量后,户主年龄与家庭收入呈负相关;家庭人数与家庭收入呈正相关;户主受教育程度、人均耕地面积、非农收入所占比重、是否在社内打工与家庭总收入、工资性收入、财产性收入、转移性收入呈正相关,与经营性收入呈负相关。     

Nutrient flows and balances at the field and farm scale: Exploring effects of land-use strategies and access to resources

Nutrient flux and balance studies are valuable tools to assess the sustainability of agro-ecosystems and potential consequences for agricultural productivity. This paper presents results from a study at the field/farm scale representing mixed farming systems typical for the East African Highlands. We selected catchments in the Dega (cool highlands and Woina Dega (warm-to-cool mid-highlands) of the Central Highlands of Ethiopia, to get more insight on how individual land use strategies and access to resources affect the magnitude of nutrient flows and resulting balances and to explore some of reasons of the variability within and between farming systems at different altitudes. Our results show that environmental condition, farming system (e.g. choice of crop), access to resources (e.g. land, livestock and fertilizer) and smallholders’ source of off farm income influence the magnitude of nutrient fluxes and the degree to which nutrient fluxes may be imbalanced.     

退耕还林政策对农户生计的影响研究——基于对北京市延庆县的实地走访

以北京市延庆县为个案对退耕还林的推行给农户生计带来的影响进行了分析,分析表明很多人一致认为的观点是浮于表面的,延庆县农户的生计模式并没有得到成功地转换.在退耕还林政策下,农户的生活并不如想象中那般得到很大改善,而且农民在心理上对退耕还林有一定的抵触情绪.