Assessing the accuracy of polls and surveys

Direct measurements of public opinion about national affairs appear with increasing frequency in all of the mass media. While such survey results are often with statements as to expected error margins, discrepancies between multiple surveys in the news at the same time on what seem to be the same topics may convince casual consumers that such error margins must be considerably understated. A brief review of the several sources of variability and fixed bias in such surveys provides a clearer frame of reference for the evaluation of such data.     

Problems in the use of survey questions to measure public opinion

Sample interview surveys are frequently proposed and sometimes used as a way of studying public choices among alternatives. Questions in such surveys may be either "open" or "closed." Two experiments are reported that demonstrate the difficulty of inferring not only absolute levels but even relative orderings of public choices from either type of question, although such questions can be used more successfully to study temporal change or variations across social categories.     

Answering autobiographical questions: the impact of memory and inference on surveys

Survey questions often probe respondents for quantitative facts about events in their past: "During the last 2 weeks, on days when you drank liquor, about how many drinks did you have?" "During the past 12 months, how many visits did you make to a dentist?" "When did you last work at a full-time job?" are all examples from national surveys. Although questions like these make an implicit demand to remember and enumerate specific autobiographical episodes, respondents frequently have trouble complying because of limits on their ability to recall. In these situations, respondents resort to inferences that use partial information from memory to construct a numeric answer. Results from cognitive psychology can be useful in understanding and investigating these phenomena. In particular, cognitive research can help in identifying situations that inhibit or facilitate recall and can reveal inferences that affect the accuracy of respondents' answers.     

Glacial-interglacial changes in moisture sources for greenland: influences on the ice core record of climate

Large, abrupt shifts in the (l8)O/(16)O ratio found in Greenland ice must reflect real features of the climate system variability. These isotopic shifts can be viewed as a result of air temperature fluctuations, but determination of the cause of the changes-the most crucial issue for future climate concerns-requires a detailed understanding of the controls on isotopes in precipitation. Results from general circulation model experiments suggest that the sources of Greenland precipitation varied with different climate states, allowing dynamic atmospheric mechanisms for influencing the ice core isotope shifts.     

Implementing the new U.S. dual-use policy

After a decade of intensive policy discussions on the topic of dual-use research of concern (DURC) in the life sciences, there has been a lack of consensus on how to practically define DURC; whether it is feasible to identify and regulate DURC experiments; how to address the risks associated with DURC; and how to balance this risk with the necessity of fostering life sciences research for public health and biodefense. The publication of two avian influenza studies has brought the DURC issue back into sharp focus and has resulted in a new set of federal guidelines. However, the new DURC policy raises questions regarding whether this is the best policy solution to a complicated biosecurity concern.     

Using gene expression noise to understand gene regulation

Phenotypic variation is ubiquitous in biology and is often traceable to underlying genetic and environmental variation. However, even genetically identical cells in identical environments display variable phenotypes. Stochastic gene expression, or gene expression "noise," has been suggested as a major source of this variability, and its physiological consequences have been topics of intense research for the last decade. Several recent studies have measured variability in protein and messenger RNA levels, and they have discovered strong connections between noise and gene regulation mechanisms. When integrated with discrete stochastic models, measurements of cell-to-cell variability provide a sensitive "fingerprint" with which to explore fundamental questions of gene regulation. In this review, we highlight several studies that used gene expression variability to develop a quantitative understanding of the mechanisms and dynamics of gene regulation.     

The origin and evolution of religious prosociality

We examine empirical evidence for religious prosociality, the hypothesis that religions facilitate costly behaviors that benefit other people. Although sociological surveys reveal an association between self-reports of religiosity and prosociality, experiments measuring religiosity and actual prosocial behavior suggest that this association emerges primarily in contexts where reputational concerns are heightened. Experimentally induced religious thoughts reduce rates of cheating and increase altruistic behavior among anonymous strangers. Experiments demonstrate an association between apparent profession of religious devotion and greater trust. Cross-cultural evidence suggests an association between the cultural presence of morally concerned deities and large group size in humans. We synthesize converging evidence from various fields for religious prosociality, address its specific boundary conditions, and point to unresolved questions and novel predictions.     

Four climate cycles of recurring deep and surface water destabilizations on the Iberian margin

Centennial climate variability over the last ice age exhibits clear bipolar behavior. High-resolution analyses of marine sediment cores from the Iberian margin trace a number of associated changes simultaneously. Proxies of sea surface temperature and water mass distribution, as well as relative biomarker content, demonstrate that this typical north-south coupling was pervasive for the cold phases of climate during the past 420,000 years. Cold episodes after relatively warm and largely ice-free periods occurred when the predominance of deep water formation changed from northern to southern sources. These results reinforce the connection between rapid climate changes at Mediterranean latitudes and century-to-millennial variability in northern and southern polar regions.     

Drawing lines in the cornfield: an analysis of discourse and identity relations across agri-food networks

In this article, I analyze discourse and identity relations within so-called ‘conventional’ agri-food networks as well as how the conventional sphere perceives, constructs and responds to alternative food movements in Canada. The paper is structured around three primary research questions: (1) How are conventional actors understanding conditions, changes, and challenges within conventional networks? (2) How do conventional actors apply this understanding in advancing conventional interests and discourses, and defending conventional networks? (3) How do conventional actors and discourse construct AFMs? For this research, I draw from survey, focus group, and in-depth interview data alongside text analysis from online sources. I elucidate the interests and motivations behind the identities, stories and messages emerging from the conventional sphere. I conclude that relationship building and communication between diverse agri-food actors may help to expand the range of agricultural knowledge, philosophies and solutions available to farmers, especially those whom are currently quite divided.     

New Opportunities in Synchrotron X-ray Crystallography

Several high-intensity synchrotron x-ray sources have been constructed over the past few years in the United States, West Germany, Great Britain, Japan, France, Italy, and the Soviet Union. Crystallographers have begun to use these facilities for experiments that take advantage of the characteristics of synchrotron radiation, namely, a broad distribution of wavelengths, high intensity, low divergence, strong polarization, and a pulsed time structure. In addition to more familiar diffraction experiments on single crystals and powdered samples, new types of crystallographic studies, for example, energy-dispersive and surface diffraction studies, have progressed rapidly with more general accessibility of synchrotron sources. These high-intensity sources allow diffraction experiments to be performed on very small crystals or on large biological molecules, and permit weak magnetic scattering to be detected Anomalous dispersion experiments can exploit he ability to vary the wavelength of the radiation, and the pulsed time structure of the beam makes possible fast time-resolved experiments. Because of the availability of synchrotron x-radiation, these and other kinds of experiments will be in the forefront of crystallographic research for the next several years.     

Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model

Previous climate model projections of climate change accounted for external forcing from natural and anthropogenic sources but did not attempt to predict internally generated natural variability. We present a new modeling system that predicts both internal variability and externally forced changes and hence forecasts surface temperature with substantially improved skill throughout a decade, both globally and in many regions. Our system predicts that internal variability will partially offset the anthropogenic global warming signal for the next few years. However, climate will continue to warm, with at least half of the years after 2009 predicted to exceed the warmest year currently on record.     

Farmer Experience with Precision Agriculture in Denmark and the US Eastern Corn Belt

Two mail surveys were carried out in Denmark and the Eastern Corn Belt, USA in 2002. Questionnaires were sent to 580 farmers who had used precision agriculture (PA) and 198 responses were received. The surveys focused on the current status of use of PA in both countries, including: PA practices, equipment and software, Internet and e-mail use, information sources for PA, satisfaction level from service providers, data handling, interpretation, storage and ownership, value of data for decision making, changes in management practices, desired information and services, and the next planned step in the practice of PA. The survey results showed more similarities in practicing PA between the two countries than differences. Time requirement and high cost of data handling were cited as the main problems. Survey respondents found soil maps to be more valuable than yield maps in management decisions. About 80% of the respondents would like to store the PA data themselves. The majority of the respondents indicated that they have changed their management practices due to PA, but not substantially. Some 90 of the respondents used the Internet and e-mail for agricultural purposes, but only a small number for PA websites.     

Near extinction of a large, widely distributed fish

Are extinctions of marine vertebrates as rare and unlikely as current data indicate? Long-term research surveys on the continental shelf between the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and southern New England reveal that one of the largest skates in the northwest Atlantic, the barndoor skate (Raja laevis), is close to extinction. Forty-five years ago, research surveys on St. Pierre Bank (off southern Newfoundland) recorded barndoor skates in 10% of their tows; in the last 20 years, none has been caught, and this pattern of decline is similar throughout the range of the species.     

塔里木河中下游地区土壤有机质空间变异性研究

本文以新疆生产建设兵团农二师33团为研究区．根据植被的变化选取土壤样点，运用地统计学方法对土壤有机质的空间变异性进行定量分析，结果表明：土壤有机质含量呈正态分布，空间变异范围是0—1660m，变异函数的最优模型为球状模型。     

The el nino cycle: a natural oscillator of the pacific ocean--atmosphere system

Research conducted during the past decade has led to an understanding of many of the mechanisms responsible for the oceanic and atmospheric variability associated with the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the reason for one of the fundamental characteristics of this phenomena, its quasi-periodicity, has remained unclear. Recently available evidence from a number of sources now suggests that the ENSO "cycle" operates as a natural oscillator based on relatively simple couplings between the tropical atmospheric circulation, the dynamics of the warm upper layer of the tropical ocean, and sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific. This concept and recent field evidence supporting the natural coupled oscillator hypothesis are outlined.     

采用参与式方法评估中国玉米研究的优先序

 采用参与式方法,对全国5个玉米生态区进行了参与式农村评估(PRA),并邀请专家以参与式学术研讨的方式对PRA所获得的玉米生产发展限制因素进行分析,以及对不同生态区的限制因素的重要性进行排序,在此基础上得出了我国玉米研究的优先序。结果表明,干旱是未来我国玉米生产发展的第一限制因素,也是玉米科研最优先的研究领域。栽培管理技术和农业技术推广等是近期我国政府在制定相关产业发展政策时必须考虑的重要领域。     

动物脑蛋白水解物研究进展及生产工艺中若干问题的解决初探

在检索大量文献资料的基础上,总结了多年来脑蛋白水解物的研究进展,并对脑蛋白水解物生产和检测中的若干问题予以分析,同时对问题的解决作了初步探索。     

An integrated approach to site-specific management zone delineation

Dividing fields into a few relatively homogeneous management zones (MZs) is a practical and cost-effective approach to precision agriculture. There are three basic approaches to MZ delineation using soil and/or landscape properties, yield information, and both sources of information. The objective of this study is to propose an integrated approach to delineating site-specific MZ using relative elevation, organic matter, slope, electrical conductivity, yield spatial trend map, and yield temporal stability map (ROSE-YSTTS) and evaluate it against two other approaches using only soil and landscape information (ROSE) or clustering multiple year yield maps (CMYYM). The study was carried out on two no-till corn-soybean rotation fields in eastern Illinois, USA. Two years of nitrogen (N) rate experiments were conducted in Field B to evaluate the delineated MZs for site-specific N management. It was found that in general the ROSE approach was least effective in accounting for crop yield variability (8.0%–9.8%), while the CMYYM approach was least effective in accounting for soil and landscape (8.9%–38.1%), and soil nutrient and pH variability (9.4%–14.5%). The integrated ROSE-YSTTS approach was reasonably effective in accounting for the three sources of variability (38.6%–48.9%, 16.1%–17.3% and 13.2%–18.7% for soil and landscape, nutrient and pH, and yield variability, respectively), being either the best or second best approach. It was also found that the ROSE-YSTTS approach was effective in defining zones with high, medium and low economically optimum N rates. It is concluded that the integrated ROSE-YSTTS approach combining soil, landscape and yield spatial-temporal variability information can overcome the weaknesses of approaches using only soil, landscape or yield information, and is more robust for MZ delineation. It also has the potential for site-specific N management for improved economic returns. More studies are needed to further evaluate their appropriateness for precision N and crop management.     

南京农业大学学生课外阅读现状及思考

2006年作者对南京农业大学10个院系、3个年级学生的课外阅读情况、课外图书来源及满足度进行了问卷调查,分析了该校大学生的阅读现状;并通过与历史数据、其他高校调查结果的对比,指出近10年来大学生阅读状况的变化,该学生在课外阅读现状凸现的特点。最后就高校图书馆有衉a7开展导读和采访工作提出了一些看法。     

Quasars, blazars, and gamma rays

Before the launch of the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO), the only source of >100-megaelectron volt (MeV) gamma radiation known outside our galaxy was the quasar 3C 273. After less than a year of observing, 13 other extragalactic sources have been discovered with the Energetic Gamma Ray Experiment Telescope (EGRET) on CGRO, and it is expected that many more will be found before the full sky survey is complete. All 14 sources show evidence of blazar properties at other wavelengths; these properties include high optical polarization, extreme optical variability, flat-spectrum radio emission associated with a compact core, and apparent superluminal motion. Such properties are thought to be produced by those few, rare extragalactic radio galaxies and quasars that are favorably aligned to permit us to look almost directly down a relativistically outflowing jet of matter expelled from a supermassive black hole. Although the origin of the gamma rays from radio jets is a subject of much controversy, the gamma-ray window probed by CGRO is providing a wealth of knowledge about the central engines of active galactic nuclei and the most energetic processes occurring in nature.