Epidemiology of HIV infection and AIDS in the United States

By the end of 1987, nearly 50,000 cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) had been reported since 1981, 20,745 in the past year alone. Black and Hispanic adults and children have reported rates 3 to 12 times as high as whites. This can be largely attributed to higher reported rates in black and Hispanic intravenous (IV) drug abusers, their sex partners, and infants. In 1986, reported AIDS deaths increased adult male and female mortality in the United States by an estimated 0.7 and 0.07%, respectively, with much greater increases in selected age groups or areas of the country. The greatest variation in infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (0 to 70%) has been found in surveys of IV drug abusers, while surveys of homosexual men reveal infection rates of 20 to 50%. Infection with HIV ranged from 0 to 2.6% in limited sexually transmitted disease clinic surveys of heterosexual men and women without a history of IV drug abuse or known sexual contact with persons at increased risk. The modes of HIV transmission are now well understood, but a large amount of biologic variability in efficiency of transmission remains to be explained. The period between initial infection with HIV and the development of AIDS is variable, but the risk for disease progression increases with duration of infection.     

A tale of two futures: HIV and antiretroviral therapy in San Francisco

The effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections and averting acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) deaths in the San Francisco gay community over the next 10 years was predicted. A transmission model was coupled with a statistical approach that enabled inclusion of a high degree of uncertainty in the potential treatment effects of ART (in terms of infectivity and survival), increase in risky behavior, and rate of emergence of drug resistance. Increasing the usage of ART in San Francisco would decrease the AIDS death rate and could substantially reduce the incidence rate.     

AIDS--the leading cause of adult death in the West African City of Abidjan, Ivory Coast

In 1988 to 1989, 698 adult cadavers in Abidjan's two largest morgues were studied, representing 38 to 43% of all adult deaths in the city over the study period, and 6 to 7% of annual deaths. Forty-one percent of male and 32% of female cadavers were infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Fifteen percent of adult male and 13% of adult female annual deaths are due to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). In Abidjan, AIDS is the leading cause of death and years of potential life lost in adult men, followed by unintentional injuries and tuberculosis. In women, AIDS is the second leading cause of death and premature mortality, after deaths related to pregnancy and abortion. AIDS-specific and AIDS-proportional mortality rates may be higher in other African cities where AIDS has been found for a longer time than in Abidjan.     

AIDS: an international perspective

The acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and infection with the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) constitute a worldwide public health problem. Whereas in Europe and in most of the Americas transmission of HIV-1 has occurred predominantly among homosexual men and intravenous drug abusers, in Africa a distinct epidemiologic pattern has emerged that indicates that HIV-1 infection is mainly heterosexually acquired. Heterosexual transmission appears to be increasing in some parts of Latin America and the Caribbean, and possibly in the United States. In addition to HIV-1, at least one other human retrovirus, namely HIV-2, has been implicated as a cause of AIDS in Africa and Europe. Factors that influence heterosexual transmission of HIV-1 include genital ulcerations, early or late stages of HIV-1 infection in the index case, and possibly oral contraception and immune activation. The rate of perinatal transmission is enhanced when the mother's illness is more advanced. AIDS and HIV-1 infection may have a significant impact not only on public health, but also on the demography and socioeconomic conditions of some developing countries. Programs for the prevention and control of AIDS should be an immediate priority in all countries.     

The epidemiology of AIDS: current status and future prospects

The reported incidence of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) continues to increase in countries throughout the world. On the basis of a polynomial model for extrapolation, the cumulative number of cases diagnosed and reported since 1981 in the United States is expected to double during the next year with over 12,000 additional cases projected to be diagnosed by July 1986. The annual incidence rates for single (never-married) men in Manhattan and San Francisco, intravenous drug users in New York City and New Jersey, and persons with hemophilia A ranged from 261 to 350 per 100,000 population during 1984. For single men aged 25 to 44 years in Manhattan and San Francisco, AIDS was the leading cause of premature mortality in 1984 as measured by years of potential life lost. Infection with HTLV-III/LAV is considerably more common than reported AIDS in high-risk populations and can persist at least for several years, so the presence of specific antibody should be considered presumptive evidence of current infection. The screening of donated blood and plasma for antibody to HTLV-III/LAV and use of safer clotting factor concentrates should greatly reduce HTLV-III/LAV transmission through blood and blood products. Most HTLV-III/LAV infections occur through sexual transmission, use of contaminated needles, and as a result of infected mothers passing the virus to newborns. Continued research commitment is needed to develop an HTLV-III/LAV vaccine and therapy for this infection. In the interim, widespread community efforts are needed to minimize transmission.     

Antibodies to cell membrane antigens associated with human T-cell leukemia virus in patients with AIDS

The acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), which has recently occurred at increasing rates in homosexual men, intravenous drug users, and others, is characterized by the development of Kaposi's sarcoma and several opportunistic infections including pneumonia caused by Pneumocystis carinii. Serum samples from patients with AIDS and from matched and unmatched control subjects were examined for the presence of antibodies to cell membrane antigens associated with human T-cell leukemia virus. Nineteen of 75 of the AIDS patients had antibodies directed to surface antigens of Hut 102, a reference T lymphoid cell line infected with leukemia virus, as did two of the 336 control subjects.     

Antiretroviral drugs for tuberculosis control in the era of HIV/AIDS

Human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) has dramatically increased the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in subSaharan Africa, where up to 60% of TB patients are coinfected with HIV and each year 200,000 TB deaths are attributable to HIV coinfection. Now HIV threatens control of TB in Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America. Antiretroviral (ARV) drugs can prevent TB by preserving immunity, but cohort analysis shows that early therapy, plus high levels of coverage and compliance, will be needed to avert a significant fraction of TB cases. However, ARV drugs could enhance the treatment of TB, and TB programs provide an important entry point for the treatment of HIV/AIDS.     

Preventing AIDS but not HIV-1 infection with a DNA vaccine

Although there has been some success in treating human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) patients with triple drug therapy (highly active antiretroviral therapy or HAART), the best hope for combating AIDS (the disease caused by HIV) could be a combination of drug therapy and vaccination, according to Shen and Siliciano in their Perspective. A new study in rhesus monkeys treated with a DNA vaccine (Barouch et al.) demonstrates that a powerful vaccine-induced CD8(+) cytolytic T cell response reduces the amount of virus in the blood to very low levels preventing the drastic decrease in CD4(+) T helper cells and subsequent immunodeficiency. As the Perspective authors explain, vaccinating HIV patients that are receiving HAART may enable HIV levels to be permanently brought under control such that the drug treatment can eventually be stopped.     

Reconstruction and future trends of the AIDS epidemic in the United States

There has been considerable uncertainty in estimates of past and current human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection rates in the United States. Statistical estimates of historical infection rates can be obtained from acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence data and the incubation period. However, this approach is subject to a number of sources of uncertainty and two other approaches, epidemic models of HIV transmission and surveys of HIV prevalence, are used to corroborate and refine the statistical estimates. Analyses suggest the HIV infection rate in the United States grew rapidly in the early 1980s, peaked in the mid-1980s, and subsequently declined markedly. Due both to the decline in the underlying infection rate and to the development of effective therapies that may delay AIDS diagnosis, overall AIDS incidence may plateau during the next 5 years. However, the number of individuals with advanced HIV disease without a diagnosis of AIDS who could potentially benefit from therapy is expected to increase 40% by 1995 as infected individuals progress to more advanced stages of HIV disease. Thus, although the overall HIV infection rate has declined, the demands on the U.S. health care system for treatment and care of HIV-infected individuals remain enormous.     

AIDS as a zoonosis: scientific and public health implications

Evidence of simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infection has been reported for 26 different species of African nonhuman primates. Two of these viruses, SIVcpz from chimpanzees and SIVsm from sooty mangabeys, are the cause of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in humans. Together, they have been transmitted to humans on at least seven occasions. The implications of human infection by a diverse set of SIVs and of exposure to a plethora of additional human immunodeficiency virus-related viruses are discussed.     

A model-based estimate of the mean incubation period for AIDS in homosexual men

Because of the difficulty in identifying the date of exposure to type 1 of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1) infection in persons other than transfusion recipients, studies of the incubation periods for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) have been limited. When data from a cohort of 84 homosexual and bisexual men that provided the information to determine the years of conversion of sera infected with HIV-1 were analyzed, a model for the proportion likely to develop AIDS and the incubation period for AIDS in homosexual men could be derived. The maximum likelihood estimate for the proportion of infected homosexual men developing AIDS is 0.99 (90% confidence interval ranging from 0.38 to 1). Furthermore, the maximum likelihood estimate for the mean incubation period for AIDS in homosexual men is 7.8 years (90% confidence interval ranging from 4.2 years to 15.0 years), which is close to the estimate of 8.2 years for adults developing transfusion-associated AIDS.     

Three-year incidence of AIDS in five cohorts of HTLV-III-infected risk group members

The incidence of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) among persons infected with human T-lymphotropic virus type III (HTLV-III) was evaluated prospectively among 725 persons who were at high risk of AIDS and had enrolled before October 1982 in cohort studies of homosexual men, parenteral drug users, and hemophiliacs. A total of 276 (38.1 percent) of the subjects were either HTLV-III seropositive at enrollment or developed HTLV-III antibodies subsequently. AIDS had developed in 28 (10.1 percent) of the seropositive subjects before August 1985. By actuarial survival calculations, the 3-year incidence of AIDS among all HTLV-III seropositive subjects was 34.2 percent in the cohort of homosexual men in Manhattan, New York, and 14.9 percent (range 8.0 to 17.2 percent) in the four other cohorts. Out of 117 subjects followed for a mean of 31 months after documented seroconversion, five (all hemophiliacs) developed AIDS 28 to 62 months after the estimated date of seroconversion, supporting the hypothesis that there is a long latency between acquisition of viral infection and the development of clinical AIDS. This long latency could account for the significantly higher AIDS incidence in the New York cohort compared with other cohorts if the virus entered the New York homosexual population before it entered the populations from which the other cohorts were drawn. However, risk of AIDS development in different populations may also depend on the presence of as yet unidentified cofactors.     

Antigens on HTLV-infected cells recognized by leukemia and AIDS sera are related to HTLV viral glycoprotein

Cross-reactive antigens of molecular size of 61,000 to 68,000 daltons are found on the surface of human cells infected by human T-cell leukemia-lymphoma virus (HTLV). They are recognized by antibodies from patients with adult T-cell leukemias and lymphomas, from healthy carriers of HTLV, and from patients with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The latter finding has been one of the major reasons for suggesting an association of HTLV with AIDS. However, whether these antigens are of cellular or viral origin has not been clear. These antigens have now been shown to be associated with the presence of viral proteins in the cells, and a cross-reactive glycoprotein of molecular size of 46,000 daltons has been found to be a consistent structural part of viruses purified from several HTLV-producer cell lines. The findings thus suggest a viral (HTLV) origin of these antigens.     

AIDS in Africa: an epidemiologic paradigm

Cases of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) have been reported in countries throughout the world. Initial surveillance studies in Central Africa suggest an annual incidence of AIDS of 550 to 1000 cases per million adults. The male to female ratio of cases is 1:1, with age- and sex-specific rates greater in females less than 30 years of age and greater in males over age 40. Clinically, AIDS in Africans is often characterized by a diarrhea-wasting syndrome, opportunistic infections, such as tuberculosis, cryptococcosis, and cryptosporidiosis, or disseminated Kaposi's sarcoma. From 1 to 18% of healthy blood donors and pregnant women and as many as 27 to 88% of female prostitutes have antibodies to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The present annual incidence of infection is approximately 0.75% among the general population of Central and East Africa. The disease is transmitted predominantly by heterosexual activity, parenteral exposure to blood transfusions and unsterilized needles, and perinatally from infected mothers to their newborns, and will continue to spread rapidly where economic and cultural factors favor these modes of transmission. Prevention and control of HIV infection through educational programs and blood bank screening should be an immediate public health priority for all African countries.     

Specific tropism of HIV-1 for microglial cells in primary human brain cultures

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) frequently causes neurological dysfunction and is abundantly expressed in the central nervous system (CNS) of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) patients with HIV encephalitis or myelopathy. The virus is found mostly in cells of the monocyte-macrophage lineage within the CNS, but the possibility of infection of other glial cells has been raised. Therefore, the effects of different HIV-1 and HIV-2 strains were studied in primary cultures of adult human brain containing microglial cells, the resident CNS macrophages, and astrocytes. These cultures could be productively infected with macrophage-adapted HIV-1 isolates but not with T lymphocyte-adapted HIV-1 isolates or two HIV-2 isolates. As determined with a triple-label procedure, primary astrocytes did not express HIV gag antigens and remained normal throughout the 3-week course of infection. In contrast, virus replicated in neighboring microglial cells, often leading to their cell fusion and death. The death of microglial cells, which normally serve immune functions in the CNS, may be a key factor in the pathogenesis of AIDS encephalitis or myelopathy.     

Functional interaction and partial homology between human immunodeficiency virus and neuroleukin

Dementia is common in patients with AIDS, but the mechanism by which the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) causes the neurological impairment is unknown. In this study the possibility that an antigen of HIV-1 suppresses neuronal responses to neurotrophic factors was examined. Both HIV-1 and a related retrovirus, simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV), inhibited the growth of sensory neurons from chick dorsal root ganglia in medium containing neuroleukin (NLK) but not in medium containing nerve growth factor. An unrelated type D retrovirus, simian acquired immunodeficiency syndrome virus, did not affect the growth of neurons in the presence of either neurotrophic factor. The inhibition by HIV-1 of neuron growth in the presence of NLK was found to be due to the gp120 envelope glycoprotein. Regions of sequence homology between gp120 and NLK may account for this inhibitory property of gp120 and functional interactions between gp120 and NLK may be important in the pathogenesis of the AIDS dementia complex.     

Population-level HIV declines and behavioral risk avoidance in Uganda

Uganda provides the clearest example that human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is preventable if populations are mobilized to avoid risk. Despite limited resources, Uganda has shown a 70% decline in HIV prevalence since the early 1990s, linked to a 60% reduction in casual sex. The response in Uganda appears to be distinctively associated with communication about acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) through social networks. Despite substantial condom use and promotion of biomedical approaches, other African countries have shown neither similar behavioral responses nor HIV prevalence declines of the same scale. The Ugandan success is equivalent to a vaccine of 80% effectiveness. Its replication will require changes in global HIV/AIDS intervention policies and their evaluation.     

Induction of AIDS in rhesus monkeys by molecularly cloned simian immunodeficiency virus

Better understanding of the pathogenesis of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) would be greatly facilitated by a relevant animal model that uses molecularly cloned virus of defined sequence to induce the disease. Such a system would also be of great value for AIDS vaccine research. An infectious molecular clone of simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) was identified that induces AIDS in common rhesus monkeys in a time frame suitable for laboratory investigation. These results provide another strong link in the chain of evidence for the viral etiology of AIDS. More importantly, they define a system for molecular dissection of the determinants of AIDS pathogenesis.     

HIV with reduced sensitivity to zidovudine (AZT) isolated during prolonged therapy

The drug sensitivities of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) isolates from a group of patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) or AIDS-related complex (ARC) who were receiving zidovudine (3'-azido-3'-deoythymidine, AZT) therapy were tested by means of a newly developed plaque assay in CD4+ HeLa cells. Fifty percent inhibitory dose (ID50) values of 18 isolates from untreated individuals ranged between 0.01 microM and 0.05 microM. In contrast, most isolates from patients who had received zidovudine for 6 months or more exhibited decreased sensitivity characterized by changes in ID50 or ID95 values (or both), with isolates from several patients (5/15) showing 100-fold increases in ID50. The latter isolates were also insensitive to 3'-azido-2',3'-dideoxyuridine; however, the isolates were still sensitive to 2',3'-dideoxycytidine, 2',3'-dideoxy-2',3'-didehydrothymidine, or phosphonoformate. It cannot be determined from this small sample of patients whether development of a less sensitive virus phenotype results in clinical resistance. Appearance of such variants was not associated with a consistent increase in viral p24 concentrations in patient plasma and did not herald any sudden deterioration in clinical status. More extensive studies are required to determine the clinical significance. Thus, it would be premature to alter any treatment protocols for HIV-infected individuals at present.     

Molecular analyses of oral polio vaccine samples

It has been suggested that the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and thus the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) it causes, was inadvertently introduced to humans by the use of an oral polio vaccine (OPV) during a vaccination campaign launched by the Wistar Institute, Philadelphia, PA, USA, in the Belgian Congo in 1958 and 1959. The "OPV/AIDS hypothesis" suggests that the OPV used in this campaign was produced in chimpanzee kidney epithelial cell cultures rather than in monkey kidney cell cultures, as stated by H. Koprowski and co-workers, who produced the OPV. If chimpanzee cells were indeed used, this would lend support to the OPV/AIDS hypothesis, since chimpanzees harbor a simian immunodeficiency virus, widely accepted to be the origin of HIV-1. We analyzed several early OPV pools and found no evidence for the presence of chimpanzee DNA; by contrast, monkey DNA is present.