渔业贷款对渔业经济发展的影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

为了更好的发展我国渔业经济,促进渔业经济健康可持续发展,解决渔业贷款问题是尤为重要的一方面。基于VAR模型,利用2004—2013年间关于渔业贷款及渔业经济的数据,对它们的相关性进行实证分析。Grange因果关系检验的结果表明中国渔业贷款与渔业经济增长之间非因果关系的Grange原因,渔业贷款对渔业经济增长并没有起到供给支持作用。因此,促进渔业贷款的投入以及制定合理化的渔业贷款政策,成为推进中国渔业经济的可持续发展的必然选择。     

中国非正规金融对农村经济增长的影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

以中国非正规金融与农村经济增长的关系为着手点,基于VAR模型,并且利用2004—2013年间关于农村非正规金融发展规模以及农村经济发展的相关数据,对它们的相关性进行实证分析。通过Grange因果关系检验表明,中国非正规金融与农村经济增长之间存在单向的因果关系。非正规金融对农村经济增长起着促进作用,同时也存在发展空间不足、缺乏规范、政策支持不够等问题,在此基础上提出增加非正规金融法律与制度保障、加强非正规金融的内部控制、加大非正规金融的政策支持力度以及吸收国外非正规金融发展经验等建议。     

Analysis on the Track of Chinese Financial Development and Economic Growth

This paper discussed the long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth of china is examined in a multivariate vector auto regression (VAR) framework. And validate whether the economics of china according with hypothesis brought forward by the economist of Yale University Hugh T. Patrick. And the hypothesis was from two theories; one is "demand-following"; the other is "supply-leading". The conclusion of this paper examines the economic growth of China is true of the hypothesis.     

经济新常态下地方政府"土地财政"转型路径探析

为了提高经济发展质量,适应经济新常态下经济增速放缓,逐步降低地方政府对土地财政的依赖程度,研究探索新的土地财政方式。运用数据分析法、实证分析法等方法,对中国土地财政的产生及影响、经济新常态下地方政府对土地财政的依赖性进行分析。探索出适合现实情况的土地出让金制度、为中国现行城市化评定标准引入更多的参考依据以及加快开征房地产税等渐进性的土地财政转型路径。以期在土地财政转型期间地方政府有较为充足的财政收入,为发展实体经济提供一定的保障,助推中国经济发展质量提升。     

Discussion on Establishment and Developmentof Policy Housing Financial System in China's Cities

China has a large population of 1.2 billion.To solve the housing problem of middle_low income families and realize a condition,under which people can live in peace and work contentedly,a policy housing financial system(PHFS)with Chinese characteristics must be established.PHFS is a special financial area.The combination of financial relationships,forms and methods related to the purchase,construction or rehabilitation of housing for middle_low income families,is the core of policy housing financial system.It has real meaning for studying theory and practice of PHFS,its role in development of housing industry,and promoting economic growth of the country,civilization and progress of the society.     

An Empirical Analysis on the Correlation between China''s Stock Market and Economic Growth

The correlation between China stock market and economic growth is always regarded by economic and financial studies. For the time limit of the developing of stock market and the difficulty of data's collection, it is still in studying that the correlation between stock market and economic growth, especially the causation versus regression. By the method of Demirguc - Kunt and Levine,this paper empirically tests the correlation between China's stock market and economic growth on the seasons serial data from 1995 to 2000. The conclusion is that the relationship economic growth between stock market is unilateral.     

黑龙江省农村金融资源配置效率实证分析

金融发展理论认为,金融市场的发展能够提高资本配置效率,进而推动经济增长。在市场经济条件下,随着金融资源配置效率的提高,金融资源配置的合理化与优化对农村经济的支持与推动作用日趋明显,并在一定程度上决定着农村经济发展的速度和效率。论文运用Jeffrey Wurgle模型,采用单位根检验、协整检验和Granger 因果检验等方法,对黑龙江省农村资源配置效率进行实证研究。结果表明,农村资源配置配置效率较低,农业贷款没有带动农业增加值的增长,财政支农也没有拉动农业总产值的增长。据此讨论黑龙江省农村金融资源配置效率低下的成因,提出相应的对策建议,这对于加强黑龙江省的宏观经济调控,促进农村经济持续协调发展具有重要的现实意义。     

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Economic Growth and Financial Development

This paper discusses the relationship between financial development and economic growth. Some essential Chinese macroeconomic datum during late twenty years which include Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the whole economy,state and private sectors,investment in fixed Assets,financial relative rate and real interest rate estimated in a multivariate vector auto regression (VAR) framework. The estimates suggest that financial development boosts GDP growth, and it does not exist in reverse.     

Construction of Silk Road Economic Belt and Industrial Selection of Minority Areas in Northwest China

Construction of Silk Road Economic Belt is a giant engine for the economic upgrading of China.Minority areas in Northwest China since then has become a forward position for the opening to the west,which is extremely significant for expanding the hinterland of Chinese economic development,activating economic development in inland and border areas,promoting the open economic development in central and west China,and also forming a new growth pole of Chinese economy.Optimization of industrial selection can promote economic development,constant economic growth of the northwest minority areas and the construction of Silk Road Economic Belt requires the optimization and adjustment of industrial selection,cultivation of competitive industries with market prospects,and formation of new economic growth points.Minority areas in northwest China have a vast territory and abundant resources that are all powerful support for the development of local competitive industries.     

Behavior of Velocity of Money in China:1980-2000

This paper studies the behavior of velocity of money in China from 1980 to 2000, the result shows the long-run velocity of money is declined, but the short-run velocity of money is fluctuated with economic periods. We consider the main determinants of circulation velocity to be financial development, economic system, and economic periods.     

Correlation between Financial Development and Industrial Growth in China

A brief introduction of literature on the nexus of financial development and growth in the economy is given first. In the light of traditional thinking over the nexus of financial development and growth, an empirical analysis,by the method of SURE in the framework of two sector model, of the causality of China financial development and industrial growth is carried out covering the relative data since the adoption of reform and open policy.The externalities of finance over industry and industry over tinance show that the supply leading version is prevalent in the chines economy. Finally the policy implication is suggested.     

全球金融危机中的我国金融业及农业风险分析*

摘要：产业结构的变动是国民经济发展的重要特征,投入产出模型是检验经济中各产业的相互联系,进而分析一个国家或地区的宏观经济运行情况的一种经济数量分析方法。面对全球金融危机,本文运用投入产出表对金融产业与其他产业结构进行关联分析是深刻揭示金融产业结构内在机理的重要方法。本文选用了中间投入率、影响力系数、感应力系数三个指标来分析在全球金融危机中,北京、上海金融业的发展问题。研究发现,金融危机对于中国经济产业的直接冲击不会太大,但是对北京、上海的冲击可能是相对严重的。当前需要注意截断房地产开发业金融业的强烈作用,同时维护农业的发展。关键词：金融危机,投入产出;中间投入率,中国;北京;上海     

City economic development,housing availability,and migrants' settlement intentions: Evidence from China

The slow growth of the permanently settled migrants in host cities poses new challenges for the sustainability of China's future urbanization. Given the growing importance of homeownership, this paper clarifies migrants' settlement intentions into three mutually exclusive patterns, including de facto permanent settlement intention through homeownership, long-term temporary settlement intention and short-term temporary settlement intention. Based on matched micro- and macro-level data, this paper examines the influence of city economic development and housing prices on these three patterns. The results suggest that economic development exhibits an attractive effect on migrants' settlement intentions for both earning money and for making a life while housing price weakens rural migrants' de facto permanent settlement intention. We also highlight the effect of the Housing Provident Fund (HPF), the most important housing financial policy in China, on settlement intention, and the results suggest that the HPF serves as an option to help migrants achieve permanent settlement through housing availability. The findings can explain the mixed results of previous research and provide policy references for sustainable urbanization in China.     

Regional economic resilience of resource-based cities and influential factors during economic crises in China

Resource-based cities (RBCs) whose economies depend primarily on exploiting and processing natural resources usually have rigid, singular, and low-end industrial structures, which often cripples their ability to cope with external disturbances such as international resource price fluctuations and economic downturns. This paper quantitatively analyzes the economic resilience of RBCs in China in terms of resistance and recoverability during the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis. Furthermore, it identifies the main factors affecting resilience. There are four main findings: First, RBCs were quickly and negatively impacted by the Asian financial crisis, which suggests that economic resistance was generally low during this period. In the recovery period, while the rate of recovery was slow at the beginning, economic recoverability improved after 2002. Economic resistance and recoverability were found to have a strong negative correlation. Second, at the beginning of the global financial crisis, the economic resistance of RBCs was generally high. However, after 2012, the number of cities that were severely affected by the economic crisis increased rapidly. Third, economic resistance varied across different types of RBCs. Coal-based and forestry-based cities had lower economic resistance, while oil & gas-based cities were more resistant. RBCs in the Eastern region generally had low economic resistance, while the economic resilience of recessionary cities was also low. Finally, while factors affecting the economic resilience varied across the two economic cycles, we found that economic development, labor conditions and, most of all, the industrial structure had a statistically significant negative effect on economic resilience.     

中国粮食“十一连增”的主要因素分析与政策建议

为了找到确保中国粮食稳定发展的方法和途径,在对中国粮食生产特点分析的基础上,对推动粮食“十一连增”的具体动因及制约因素进行了深入分析。研究认为：在中国支持粮食产业财政投入不断加大、农业科技实力不断增强、种植业结构的高产替代模式等因素的推动下,中国粮食连续十一年增产。但是,中国粮食安全并非高枕无忧,粮食生产面临着资源约束加剧、比较效益降低、国际竞争力减弱、生态和环境持续恶化等挑战。因此,本研究提出要从财政、科技、环境、经营主体以及粮价视角出发,建立粮食稳定发展的长效机制。     

How does financial agglomeration affect green development? Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta of China

An extensive economic growth mode leads to resource depletion and environmental degradation. Green development is the best way to solve this problem. We analyzed the sample data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta of China from 2007 to 2019. We used the spatial Durbin model and interaction term model to study the effects of regional financial agglomeration (FA) on green development and the moderating role of green technology innovation. The results show that FA promotes local green development but inhibits the green development of neighboring areas. Because the polarization effect of the growth pole is greater than its dispersion effect, cities with high levels of FA have a strong “siphon effect” on the surrounding areas. Green technology innovation positively moderates the promoting effect of FA on green development; the higher the level of green technology innovation and the degree of emphasis on it, the stronger the promoting effect. The government should encourage green finance to promote green technology innovation and promote the green development of the regional economy. These findings provide new insights for developing countries to achieve sustainable development under environmental constraints.     

中国农户小额信贷问题初探——以中国农业银行临沂市分行为例

解决好农村、农民、农业问题关系到中国经济的可持续发展。党的十八大报告中把解决三农问题、推动城乡发展一体化、促进农民增收作为党工作的重中之重,需要加快构建适应三农特点的农村金融体系。因此,农户小额信贷成为农村金融机构对农户进行金融服务、构建农村信用体系的重要方式。农业银行临沂市分行大力拓展农户小额贷款业务,围绕三农市场定位,通过不同的贷款模式,有效的满足了不同层次的农户贷款需求,成为支持新农村建设和农民增收的主力军。笔者就临沂市的农业银行的工作实际,通过实证和历史比较的分析方法,对农户小额贷款问题进行探讨。农业银行开展农户小额贷款有利于农户收入和农村经济的增长,并提出应扩大农户信贷规模、完善信用体系等方面的建议。     

中东欧四个转型经济体国家的农村信用担保计划及其经验借鉴

[内容摘要] 在农村贷款市场上,由于农业的市场化程度不高、高风险低收益以及缺少贷款担保品,很多农户和农村中小企业不符合农村金融机构的贷款担保条件而得不到贷款。为缓解这种困境, 在中东欧转型经济体中很多国家都构建了以服务农民和农村经济发展为目的的信用担保体系,有效的缓解了农村贷款难的问题。当前我国正在积极构建农村信贷担保机制,本文在详细分析了四个中东欧转型经济体的农村信用担保基金和计划的运作模式和作法的基础上,总结并提出可供我国借鉴的方法和经验。     

Investigation of e‐commerce in China in a geographical perspective

In recent years, e‐commerce has become a phenomenal symbol for the ongoing socio‐economic transformation in China. Driven by the growth of the Internet and cyberspace, e‐commerce changes both the traditional patterns of economic transactions and the social relations embedded in social activities. E‐commerce is a new catalyst for economic growth in China as it reduces restrictions to market access and the costs of transaction. This research examines the geography of e‐commerce in China within a theoretical framework grounded by social theory and neoclassical economics. After presenting a background of the development of e‐commerce in China, the spatiality of e‐commerce and its correlation to socio‐economic variables are examined with both quantitative and geovisualization techniques. Results of this research address that the growth of e‐commerce in China presents a nationwide inequality constrained by local economic, politic, and infrastructure conditions. The growth of e‐commerce in China presents a hybrid feature in terms of spatiality, which relies on structures in both cyberspace and physical space. Policy implications and suggestions for future research were suggested based on these empirical results. A discussion of limitations associated with this research and a concluding note close the research.     

The space-time evolution and driving forces of county economic growth in China from 1998 to 2015

Coordinated growth in regional economies is fundamental for sustainable economic development. In this study, the space-time dynamics of GDP per capita for 2,303 counties in China from 1998 to 2015 were analyzed based on an exploratory space-time data analysis (ESTDA) framework. The results showed that: (a) there was significant and increasing positive spatiotemporal correlation among county-level economic growth; (b) local spatiotemporal correlation pattern demonstrated a high–high cluster at the eastern coast, and low–low dispersion in the vast central and western regions; (c) changes in LISA time trajectory revealed that economic growth in the coastal urban agglomeration and Inner Mongolia was more dynamic, indicating the emergence of a local spatial structure locking feature and trajectory dependence; and (d) industrialization and informatization were the two primary contributors to county economic growth. Our study suggests that Chinese government should construct network channels linking the central region with eastern China, cultivate economic growth poles and growth axis, and focus on technological innovation to unlock path dependence in county economic growth.