A new abundance estimate for Maui’s dolphin: What does it mean for managing this critically endangered species?

Hector’s dolphin Cephalorhynchus hectori is found only in New Zealand waters. We carried out a population survey of the North Island subspecies Cephalorhychus hectori maui, also known as Maui’s dolphin. The total population size estimate is 111 individuals (95% confidence interval = 48-252). The small population size confirms its critically endangered IUCN status. A sustainable level of human-caused mortality for this population would be 0.16 (one dolphin every 6.4 years). This essentially means that fisheries bycatch, and where possible other human impacts, need to be eliminated to allow population recovery. A protected area has been created to reduce the threat from entanglement in fishing gear. Gillnet fishing is prohibited along a 210 nautical mile stretch of coastline. The main concerns are that gillnet fishing is still allowed inside harbours and trawling continues inside the protected area.     

Declines in common, widespread native birds in a mature temperate forest

Common, widespread species are important for ecosystem structure and function. Although such species have declined in some parts of the world, for most ecosystems there is a lack of information about changes in the population status of common species. We studied the abundance of common, widespread forest birds in Nelson Lakes National Park, New Zealand using standardised 5-min bird counts, carried out over a 30-year time span. There was a significant change in the bird community structure during this period. Five native species (bellbird, rifleman, grey warbler, New Zealand tomtit and tui) declined in abundance during the 30 years. All of these declined in abundance at low but not high altitudes, and the decline was substantial for all but New Zealand tomtit and tui. Three other native species increased in abundance (silvereye, yellow-crowned parakeet and New Zealand robin). There was no change in the abundance of introduced blackbirds. We suggest that invasive alien species are the most likely cause of the ongoing declines in common native species. A peak in brushtail possum abundance and the arrival of a new species of Vespula wasp were two large changes in Nelson Lakes forests that occurred during this study. Both are likely to have added to the ongoing impacts of predation by introduced rats and stoats. We suggest that it is necessary to actively manage introduced species in order to maintain populations of widespread, common native bird species in New Zealand.     

An approach for regional threat assessment under IUCN Red List criteria that is robust to uncertainty: The Fiordland bottlenose dolphins are critically endangered

Numerous globally abundant species are exposed to human impacts that threaten the viability of regional populations. Assessing and characterising the risks faced by these populations can have significant implications for biodiversity conservation, given the ecological importance of many such species. To address these risks, the IUCN is starting to conduct assessments of regional populations in addition to species-level assessments of conservation status. Here, we demonstrate a threat assessment process that is robust to uncertainty, applying the IUCN criteria to a regional population of bottlenose dolphins in Fiordland, New Zealand. We compiled available population-specific information to assess the population under the five Red List criteria. We estimated there were 205 Fiordland bottlenose dolphins (CV = 3.5%), using current estimates of abundance for two sub-populations and stochastic modelling of an earlier estimate for the third sub-population. Population trajectory and extinction risk were assessed using stochastic age-structured Leslie matrix population models. The majority of model runs met the criteria for classification as critically endangered (C1: 67.6% of runs) given the number of mature individuals (123; CV = 6.7%) and the predicted rate of population decline (average decline: 31.4% over one generation). The evidence of isolation of the population confirms this was an appropriate regional classification. This approach provided an assessment that was robust to uncertainty.     

Estimating the rate of quasi-extinction of the Australian grey nurse shark (Carcharias taurus) population using deterministic age- and stage-classified models

Grey nurse sharks off the east coast of Australia are listed nationally as “critically endangered” under Schedule 1 of the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (1999) and may number no more than 300 in New South Wales and southern Queensland waters. They are an inshore, coastal dwelling species and were severely depleted by spearfishing in the 1960s. The population has continued to decline despite protection since 1984. Their life history (long-lived to 25+ years), late maturation (6-8 years), low fecundity (maximum 2 live young biennially), specific habitat requirements, limited inshore distribution, and small population size render them particularly vulnerable to extinction. We estimated the time to quasi-extinction (years elapsed for the population to consist of ?50 females) for the grey nurse shark population off the east coast of Australia based on current estimates of abundance and known anthropogenic rates of mortality. Estimated minimum population size was 300 as of 2002, and minimum anthropogenic mortality assessed from recovered carcasses was 12/year of which 75% were females. We modelled time to quasi-extinction using deterministic age- and stage-classified models for worst-, likely and best-case scenarios. Population size was estimated at 300 (worst), 1000 (likely) and 3000 (best). Anthropogenic mortality was added to the model assuming either all carcasses are being recovered (best), or conservatively, that only 50% are reported (realistic). Depending on model structure, if all carcasses are being reported, quasi-extinction times for worst-, likely and best-case scenarios range from 13 to 16 years, 84-98 years and 289-324 years, respectively. If under-reporting is occurring, time to quasi-extinction ranges from 6 to 8 years, 45-53 years and 173-200 years, respectively. In all scenarios modelled the grey nurse shark population will decline if no further steps are taken to remove anthropogenic sources of mortality. Because estimates of quasi-extinction rate depend on initial population size, and sensitivity analysis revealed that population rate of change was most sensitive to changes in the survival probability of the smallest length classes, obtaining precise estimates of abundance and annual survival of young females is critical.     

Factors influencing survival and long-term population viability of New Zealand long-tailed bats (Chalinolobus tuberculatus): Implications for conservation

A population viability analysis is important for the management of endangered populations and requires the estimation of survival parameters. The long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) is one of only two native terrestrial mammals currently found in New Zealand and is classed as vulnerable. Its viability in temperate beech (Nothofagus) forest, Eglinton Valley, Fiordland, New Zealand was estimated using mark-recapture data collected between 1993 and 2003 using the Program MARK. Survival was estimated based on a total of 5286 captures representing 1026 individuals. Overall annual survival varied between 0.34 and 0.83 but varied significantly among three sub-populations and with sex and age. Females generally had a higher survival rate compared to males; and adults had higher survival relative to juveniles. Survival of all bats was lower in years when the number of introduced mammalian predators was high and when the winter temperature was warmer than average. High numbers of introduced predators occurred during three of the 10 years in the study. Climate change may mean that the conditions that promote high predator numbers may occur more frequently. A preliminary population viability analysis using a projection matrix on the overall adult female population showed an average 5% decline per year (λ = 0.95). Increased predator control targeting a range of predators is required in years when their numbers are high in order to halt the decline of this population of long-tailed bats. Population estimates using minimum number alive estimates supported the population estimates derived from Program MARK and a population viability analysis using matrices.     

Expectations for population growth at new breeding locations for the vulnerable New Zealand sea lion (Phocarctos hookeri) using a simulation model

Management plans for threatened or recovering large vertebrate species that are increasing in population size and range focus on the establishment of viable populations within set temporal limits. New Zealand (Hookers) sea lions (Phocarctos hookeri) were declared a threatened species in 1997, and New Zealand legislation requires that threatened species of marine mammals must be managed to reduce human-induced mortality and achieve a non-threatened status within 20 years. The present breeding distribution of P. hookeri is highly localised, with over 95% of total annual pup production located at Auckland Islands and almost all of the remainder at Campbell Island. Breeding elsewhere has been ephemeral or restricted to <10 adult females. The only recorded sustainable breeding at a new location has been at Otago, South Island, New Zealand. This breeding population consisted of a total of four breeding females in 2002 and is derived from one immigrant female that gave birth to her first pup in the 1993/1994 breeding season. The New Zealand Department of Conservation management plan specifies that to achieve a non-threatened status P. hookeri (1) at Otago must increase in the number of breeding females to ?10, and (2) must establish ?two new breeding locations within the 20-year time frame, each with ?10 breeding females. This study 1) projects the population growth trends at a new location (Otago) to see if it will achieve ?10 breeding females within the legislated time frame, and (2) examines the likelihood that other breeding locations will establish elsewhere given the demographic information available for this species. We present 20 deterministic and three stochastic Leslie matrix model scenarios for female population growth for the initial years following the start of breeding at a new location. Our results indicate that (1) a new breeding population derived from one immigrant female is unlikely to reach 10 breeding females in 20 years; this duration is more likely to be 23-41 years (deterministic models) or 23-26 years (stochastic model), (2) the likelihood of two new sites establishing within 20 years is unquantifiable, but the probability is low, and (3) if the legislated outcome and time limit are not revised in the population management plan, the feasibility and effectiveness of re-locating young females could be investigated.     

Accounting for Lack of Independence and Partial Overlap of Observation Zones in Line-Transect Mark-Recapture Distance Sampling

Line-transect mark-recapture distance sampling methods can be used to estimate abundance when at least two observers sight and record distances to detected groups of individuals within the survey area. However, a lack of independence between the observer’s detections will cause biased abundance estimates. Studies are also typically designed such that there is complete overlap of the regions searched by the two observers, but that may not always be possible. Here we detail an intuitive approach for line-transect distance sampling applications based upon logistic regression to account for a potential lack of independence by using the detections of one observer as a covariate in the detection function of the second observer. Partial overlap of the observer survey regions can be addressed by constraining detection probability to equal 0 for the respective observer outside of the overlap zone. We show via simulation that the method provides reliable estimates of abundance and is not affected by random unmodeled heterogeneity in detection probability. The method is illustrated by estimating abundance within the covered region of an aerial line-transect survey for New Zealand’s endemic Hector’s dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori hectori) conducted in the austral summer of 2013, the motivating application for this work. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear on-line.     

Modelling the effects of persecution on the population dynamics of golden eagles in Scotland

We used observations of the age structure and breeding productivity of the Scottish population of golden eagles Aquila chrysaetos together with the classic theory of population dynamics to derive current `unmanipulated' estimates of life history parameters. We then used regional differences in age structure associated with differences in persecution intensity to derive estimates of prospective `persecution-free' life history parameters. The different parameter combinations were entered into a population model to simulate their effects on the number of occupied territories over time. Most simulations suggested that with unmanipulated demographic parameters the population should decline. The disparity between these predictions and the observed apparent stability in occupied territories was ascribed to the buffering effect of a lowering in age of breeding in areas where persecution is most intense and that more favourable parameter estimates within the estimated limits may be more realistic. The results indicated, nevertheless, that currently the population is vulnerable to decline as also suggested by the apparent lack of adults to occupy vacant territories. In the absence of the estimated 3-5% annual adult mortality through persecution, modelling suggested the population would increase. Removing estimated effects of persecution on reproductive rate and preadult survival were on their own insufficient to reverse the declines predicted from unmanipulated parameters, although the effect of persecution on preadult survival may be more severe than we estimated. In the absence of persecution we conclude that the population could expand to fill currently vacant but apparently suitable habitat and have a more secure long-term status.     

Dolphin-watching tour boats change bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) behaviour

Over the last decade there has been considerable growth in marine mammal-watching tourism throughout the world. Due to the species use of coastal habitats, bottlenose dolphins are most frequently exposed to dolphin-watching tourism. We conducted boat-based focal follows of schools of bottlenose dolphins to determine the effect of boats on dolphin behaviour. A CATMOD analysis showed that behaviour differed by boat number, in particular, resting behaviour decreased as boat number increased. Dolphins rested less and engaged in more milling behaviour in the presence of permitted dolphin-watching boats compared to non-permitted boats. An increase from 49 to 70 permitted trips per week and a change in their departure times resulted in a further decrease in resting behaviour. Currently the effects of boats, in particular permitted boats, on dolphin resting behaviour whilst they are in the Bay of Islands, are substantial. In the light of these findings we suggest that current legislation in New Zealand is not affording this isolated population protection from disturbance.     

Potential biological removal of albatrosses and petrels with minimal demographic information

Seabirds such as albatrosses and petrels are frequently caught in longline and trawl fisheries, but limited demographic data for many species creates management challenges. A method for estimating the potential biological removal (the PBR method) for birds requires knowledge of adult survival, age at first breeding, a conservation goal, and the lower limit of a 60% confidence interval for the population size. For seabirds, usually only the number of breeding pairs is known, rather than the actual population size. This requires estimating the population size from the number of breeding pairs when important demographic variables, such as breeding success, juvenile survival, and the proportion of the adult population that engages in breeding, are unknown. In order to do this, a simple population model was built where some demographic parameters were known while others were constrained by considering plausible asymptotic estimates of the growth rate. While the median posterior population estimates are sensitive to the assumed population growth rate, the 20th percentile estimates are not. This allows the calculation of a modified PBR value that is based on the number of breeding pairs instead of the population size. For threatened albatross species, this suggests that human-caused mortalities should not exceed 1.5% of the number of breeding pairs, while for threatened petrel species, mortalities should be kept below 1.2% of the number of breeding pairs. The method is applied to 22 species and sub-species of albatrosses and petrels in New Zealand that are of management concern, of which at least 10 have suffered mortalities near or above these levels.     

Climate change is linked to long-term decline in a stream salamander

Amphibian declines have been documented worldwide and several have been linked to climate change, but the long-term data needed to detect declines are largely restricted to pond-breeding species. This limits our knowledge of population trends in other major groups of amphibians, including stream salamanders, which have their greatest diversity in North America. I hypothesized that increasing air temperature and precipitation in northeastern North America caused abundance of the stream salamander Gyrinophilus porphyriticus in a New Hampshire population to decline between 1999 and 2010. I found a significant decline in abundance of G. porphyriticus adults over this 12-year period, and no trend in larval abundance. Adult abundance was negatively related to annual precipitation, which is predicted to increase further in the Northeast due to climate change. Analysis of a 6-year capture–mark–recapture data set for the same population showed no temporal variation in larval and adult detectability, validating the abundance data, and no variation in larval and adult survival. However, survival during metamorphosis from the larval to adult stage declined dramatically. These results suggest that increasing precipitation is causing a decline in adult recruitment, which, if it persists, will lead to local extinction. A likely mechanism for the decline in adult recruitment is mortality of metamorphosing individuals during spring and fall floods, which have increased in volume and frequency with the increase in precipitation. More broadly, this study presents strong evidence that the amphibian decline crisis extends to North America’s stream salamanders, and shows the critical need to collect population data on these species.     

Cost-effective abundance estimation of rare animals: Testing performance of small-boat surveys for killer whales in British Columbia

Top predators are often rare, subject to anthropogenic mortality, and possess life-history traits that make them inherently vulnerable to extinction. IUCN criteria recognise populations as Critically Endangered when abundance is <250 mature individuals, but estimating abundance of rare species can be more challenging than for common ones. Cost-effective methods are needed to provide robust abundance estimates. In marine environments, small boats are more widely accessible than large ships for researchers conducting sightings surveys with limited funds, but studies are needed into efficacy of small-boat surveys. This study compares line transect and mark-recapture estimates from small-boat surveys in summer 2004 and 2005 for ‘northern resident’ killer whales in British Columbia to true population size, known from censuses conducted by Fisheries and Oceans Canada. The line transect estimate of 195 animals (95% CI 27-559) used model averaging to incorporate uncertainty in the detection function, while the mark-recapture estimate of 239 animals (CI 154-370) used a simple two-sample Chapman estimator. Both methods produced estimates close to the true population size, which numbered 219 animals in 2004 and 235 in 2006, but both suffered from the small sample sizes and violations of some model assumptions that will vex most pilot studies of rare species. Initial abundance estimates from relatively low-cost surveys can be thought of as hypotheses to be tested as new data are collected. For species of conservation concern, any cost-effective attempt to estimate absolute abundance will assist status assessments, as long as estimates are presented with appropriate caveats.     

Conservation of the endangered New Zealand fairy tern

The New Zealand fairy tern Sterna nereis davisae has only one small population of c.30 individuals and its conservation is a priority. The population was declining prior to the mid 1980s. Management of the three remaining breeding sites was initiated during 1983/84 and intensified from 1991 onwards. We have collated historic data and reviewed the changes in the population since 1991. Our results illustrate that the number of chicks fledged increased since 1991. Fifty-five chicks fledged between 1991/92 and 2002/03. Demographic modelling based on productivity and age-specific survival estimates predicted that the population should increase at c.1.5% per annum. The predicted results from the demographic model contrasted against the observation of a stable resident population. This difference could have resulted from the movement of individuals out of our study area. Demographic modelling also indicated that the population may have continued to decline at a rate of c.1.4% per annum if management was not initiated. Extinction risk within 50 years has decreased from 0.52 to 0.39.     

Distribution, abundance and conservation status of dugongs and dolphins in the southern and western Arabian Gulf

The marine mammals of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were censussed by three strip-transect aerial surveys. The Arabian Gulf supports a population of ca. 5800 dugongs (Dugong dugon), which is the largest known outside Australia. The most important habitats occur (1) around Murawah Island (UAE), (2) between Qatar and Bahrain and (3) between Qatar and the UAE. Surveys of the UAE were repeated 13 years apart. The two estimates of the dugong population were not significantly different, suggesting a stable population of ca. 3000 between 1986 and 1999. In the region between Kuwait and Oman, the Indian Ocean bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) is the most common cetacean (71% of groups and individuals), followed by the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis; 27%) and finless porpoise (Neophocaena phocaenoides; 2%). The estimates of cetacean abundance in the UAE differed significantly between 1986 and 1999 and indicate a population decline of 71%. At least two die-offs of marine mammals occurred between these surveys. The countries of the southern Gulf are developed and affluent and are well positioned to take a lead in marine conservation in the region. A coordinated series of protected areas could greatly enhance the long-term prospects for marine mammals and other components of biodiversity in the region.     

Identifying declines in waterbirds: The effects of missing data, population variability and count period on the interpretation of long-term survey data

To manage and conserve wildlife populations effectively it is necessary to use methods that identify the often non-linear trends in populations, have an inbuilt assessment of trend quality and can analyse count data from a range of spatial scales. We present a method of trend analysis using generalised additive models. These produce smoothed indices of abundance that can be used to assess population change from one or more sites or time periods, with any number of estimates of abundance per index period. We apply this method to count data collected under the Wetland Bird Survey, a national scheme that monitors waterbirds in the United Kingdom. To highlight declining populations, ‘alerts’ were raised if the population decline was equal to or greater than 50%. Significance was determined using bootstrapped confidence intervals for analyses that included many sites, or a novel Monte-Carlo method for single site analyses. The impact of missing data, species count variability and the number of months used to calculate the population change was greater at individual sites than for national datasets, which were relatively insensitive to changes in the above parameters. For single sites it is essential that three or more counts be made per index period if reliable estimates of population change are required. We propose that the method presented could be applied to a wide range of national or other monitoring schemes for a variety of taxa.     

Potential limits to anthropogenic mortality for harbour porpoises in the Baltic region

We estimated potential limits to anthropogenic mortality for harbour porpoises in the Baltic region (the Skagerrak, Kattegat, Great Belt and Little Belt Seas, the Kiel and Mecklenburg Bights, and the Baltic Sea) using conservation objectives set by the Agreement on the Conservation of Small Cetaceans in the Baltic and North Seas (ASCOBANS). Mortality limits (ML) were calculated as the product of: a minimum estimate of abundance, one-half the maximum rate of increase and an uncertainty factor. Previous models show that if anthropogenic mortality is less than ML, a depleted population should recover to more than 80% of carrying capacity, meeting the conservation objectives of ASCOBANS. Minimum estimates of by-catches exceed ML for the population structure hypothesis tested, indicating that these catches will impede recovery. The same result was also evident for other hypothetical population structures. We conclude that immediate management actions are necessary to reduce the magnitude of by-catches to meet the conservation objectives of ASCOBANS.     

Using integrated population modelling to quantify the implications of multiple threatening processes for a rapidly declining population

Many species of conservation concern are in decline due to threats from multiple sources. To quantify the conservation requirements of these species we need robust estimates of the impact of each threat on the rate of population decline. However, for the vast majority of species this information is lacking. Here we demonstrate the application of integrated population modelling as a means of deriving robust estimates of the impact of multiple threats for a rapidly declining koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population in South-east Queensland, Australia. Integrated population modelling provides a basis for reducing uncertainty and bias by formally integrating information from multiple data sources into a single model. We quantify mortality rates due to threats from dog attacks, vehicle collisions and disease and the extent to which each of these mortality rates would need to be reduced, or how much habitat would need to be restored, to stop the population declining. We show that the integrated population modelling approach substantially reduces uncertainty. We also show that recovery actions that only address single threats would need to reduce those threats to implausibly low levels to recover the population. This indicates that strategies for simultaneously tackling multiple threats are necessary; a situation that is likely to be true for many of the world’s threatened species. This study provides an important framework for quantifying the conservation requirements of species undergoing declines due to multiple threats.     

Site fidelity and along-shore range in Hector's dolphin, an endangered marine dolphin from New Zealand

To document site fidelity and the alongshore range of individual Hector's dolphins we analysed sightings of 32 photographically identified dolphins, each seen ?10 times at Banks Peninsula, New Zealand, between 1985 and 1997. The furthest two sightings of an individual were 106 km apart. All other individuals ranged over less than 60 km (x?=31.0 km, SE=2.43) of coastline. Gender did not significantly influence alongshore range (female x?=30.4 km, SE =3.21, n=18; male x?=27.4 km, SE=5.68, n=5). Site fidelity was high: for example, on average, individuals were seen in Akaroa Harbour for about two thirds of the years they were known to be alive. These data suggest that impacts on Hector's dolphins are most appropriately managed on a small spatial scale.     

Estimating impacts of poison operations on non-target species using mark-recapture analysis and simulation modelling: an example with saddlebacks

Poison operations to control or eradicate exotic mammals are a key component of conservation management in the South Pacific. They also result in by-kill of native species. It is therefore important to develop reliable methods for estimating by-kill and assessing its impact. The North Island saddleback (Philesturnus carunculatus rufusater), a rare New Zealand forest bird, was reintroduced to Mokoia Island in 1992, and 4 years later there was an aerial drop of cereal pellets containing Brodifacoum aimed at eradicating mice. We used mark-recapture analysis on resighting data collected from 1992 to 1997 to estimate the by-kill of saddlebacks attributable to this poison drop. We nominated a set of candidate models to explain the data, and compared these using Akaike's Information Criterion. The analysis showed that saddleback survival was substantially lower than expected in the 6-week interval after the poison drop, taking age, density dependence, season and random variation into account. Taking expected survival rates into account, the probability of an adult being killed was estimated to be 0.45 (95% CI=0.34-0.56), and the probability of a juvenile being killed was estimated to be 0.35 (95% CI=−0.05-0.75). We then used a simulation model developed for the population to assess the longer-term impact of this mortality. While the mortality set back the expansion of the population by 1-2 years, we predicted that the population would have recovered fairly quickly and ultimately reach the same carrying capacity. Mark-recapture analysis permits precise estimates of background survival rates unconfounded by seasonal or random variation.     

Predicting Life-History Traits for Female New Zealand Sea Lions, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Phocarctos hookeri</Emphasis>: Integrating Short-Term Mark-Recapture Data and Population Modeling

The trade-off between survival and reproduction by individuals is central to understanding life-history parameters of a species. Few mammal species have life-history information from long-term research. Instead, demographic models are commonly utilized to investigate an individual’s life-history strategy, species dynamics, and population trends. This research investigates age-related survival and reproductive performance of adult female New Zealand (NZ) sea lions (Phocarctos hookeri), using multi-state mark-recapture data from known-age branded individuals over five years. The mark-recapture analysis was integrated with a population model to predict the lifetime reproductive output of female NZ sea lions. The integration of an analysis of short-term datasets with population modeling allows for the prediction of life-history parameters of long lived animals when long-term information is not available. While such approaches involve some caveats, it provides a framework for investigating population dynamics and is preferential to unsubstantiated assumptions. This technique can lead to better design and implementation of conservation management for long lived species.