中国农田减缓气候变化的潜力与技术途径

以全球变暖为主要特征的气候变化是当前人类面临的主要环境问题之一,并且对农业生产和粮食安全产生了重大影响。增强作物对气候变化的响应与适应能力,提升农田系统固碳减排潜力,是中国农业生产上亟待解决的重要问题。笔者简要分析了国内农业固碳现状,总结了农业生产上应对气候变化的相关技术体系。通过分析国内农业生产适应和减缓气候变化的潜力和技术途径,对未来增加农业固碳潜力的研究做出了展望,为气候变化背景下实现中国农业的可持续发展提供了新的参考和借鉴。     

The impact of climate changes on agriculture export trade in Pakistan: Evidence from time‐series analysis

Agriculture is one of the primary contributors to Pakistan's economy. However, over the last few decades, the atmospheric carbon dioxide emission has been amplified to a great extent in Pakistan. This amplification may cause climate change, global warming, and environmental mitigation in Pakistan. This paper empirically investigates the impact of CO₂ emissions on the agricultural export trade of Pakistan over the period 1975–2017. Evidence suggests that climate change could be a primary cause for the decline in Pakistan's agriculture export trade; no studies have been carried out for this specific issue, particularly over time. In this paper, the empirical analysis suggests the negative coefficient of agriculture export trade with CO₂ emissions subsequently decreases agriculture export trade, which leads to direct impact on Pakistan's economy. Both theoretical and empirical outcomes suggest that the adaptation of clean and green energies and technologies are the key to reduce pollution in Pakistan. Overall, the effects of carbon dioxide emissions on agriculture export trade are stronger in the long‐run dynamics, thus making the finding heterogeneous. Possible initiatives should be taken by the government of Pakistan to improve the agriculture sector and it should also introduce new policies to reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide.     

Wishful sinking: Disappearing islands,climate refugees and cosmopolitan experimentation

Disappearing islands and climate refugees have become signifiers of the scale and urgency of uneven impacts of climate change. This paper offers a critical account of how sea level rise debates reverberate around Western mythologies of island laboratories. I argue that representations of low‐lying Oceania islands as experimental spaces burden these sites with providing proof of a global climate change crisis. The emergence of Tuvalu as a climate change ‘canary’ has inscribed its islands as a location where developed world anxieties about global climate change are articulated. As Tuvalu islands and Tuvaluan bodies become sites to concretize climate science's statistical abstractions, they can enforce an eco‐colonial gaze on Tuvalu and its inhabitants. Expressions of ‘wishful sinking’ create a problematic moral geography in some prominent environmentalist narratives: only after they disappear are the islands useful as an absolute truth of the urgency of climate change, and thus a prompt to save the rest of the planet.     

Governing climate change in Hong Kong: Prospects for market mechanisms in the context of emissions trading in China

Hong Kong continues to struggle over which environmental governance approach is in its best interest while fulfilling its environmental obligations. With regard to climate change, Hong Kong's approach is characterised by a passive form of governance that is highly dependent on China's national policy directions. This is reflected, for example, in Hong Kong having not set its own mitigation targets. Market mechanisms have received little attention in developing a city‐wide climate change strategy. A transformative impulse, China's national emissions trading scheme, may provide momentum to a market‐based approach. However, the necessary conditions for such a market mechanism to be successfully implemented in China remain relatively undeveloped. This raises question about early participation by Hong Kong. Direct benefits are likely to be limited, due to Hong Kong's economic structure and weak demand for emissions reduction. Besides, there are regulatory barriers to enforcing emissions targets and/or recognising emissions allowances and credits from China. We therefore argue that nationwide emissions trading may, at this time, present more challenges than opportunities for Hong Kong to leverage its efforts on climate change mitigation. An alternative is to promote voluntary emissions trading that will require active involvement and leadership by businesses.     

生物炭之低碳农业初探

农业生产过程与全球气候变化息息相关,如何减少农业温室气体排放,并探寻土壤固炭方法已经成为当前农业与环境研究中的热点。全文旨在摸索一条由生物质碳化技术为基础的低碳农业发展的可能途径。从低碳这一热点问题出发,本文对低碳农业的定义、特征、途径进行了基本阐述,同时论述了生物炭的基本特征,及生物炭在应用上的农学和环境学价值,并重点讨论了如何利用生物炭发展以低能耗、低排放、低污染为特征的低碳农业的可能模式,最后指出了当前生物炭在低碳农业研究和利用方面所面临的问题和挑战。     

基于低碳经济视角下首都新农村可持续发展的研究

“低碳经济”的概念首先是由英国在《我们未来的能源——创建低碳经济》的白皮书中提出的,其目标是减缓气候变化和促进人类的可持续发展。低碳农业经济能够减少农业排放大量温室气体,应对气候变化对农业的威胁,并实现首都新农村可持续发展。笔者从低碳产业、低碳农业、低碳工业、低碳环境、碳汇减碳五个方面提出低碳农业经济在首都新农村可持续的发展思路。     

基于“低碳”理念的城市土地利用系统健康评价研究

将城市土地碳排放和城市减排措施作为城市土地利用系统健康评价的重要指标,以PSR模型为框架,采用障碍度模型和变异系数法,对郑州市城市土地利用系统健康状况进行定量研究。研究结果显示:(1)2003—2012年郑州市的城市土地利用系统健康状况由不健康逐步过渡到临界状态,且响应系统障碍度不断下降,而压力系统障碍度则逐渐增加。(2)2003—2012年郑州市城市碳排放障碍度呈缓慢下降趋势,城市低碳措施的障碍度虽有波动但下降不明显。(3)单项因素障碍诊断方面,建设用地比重、社会固定资产投资增长率、城镇人口密度、城市碳汇面积增加量等因素随着时间的推移逐渐成为系统的主要障碍因素,而低碳指标始终是城市土地利用系统健康的主要障碍因素。可得出结论:为促进城市土地利用系统的健康发展,需要转变经济发展方式,促进城市土地的多样化利用,加强城市土地的市场化配置程度,增加城市环保投入,以低碳城市为目标,制定相应的减排政策。     

充分发挥茶园碳汇功能，促进茶叶低碳生产发展

在全球气候变化已引起世界各国关注的今天,发展低碳经济,采用可持续的低碳农业技术措施发展低碳农业,是解决气候变化与经济发展矛盾的有效途径。本研究介绍了茶园碳汇功能：茶树生长对空气中CO2的固定和茶园土壤碳库对有机碳的富积和保存。总结中国茶叶生产实践和茶叶科学研究过程中形成的低碳茶叶生产技术：因地制宜合理规划、合理开垦防止烧山垦园、合理密植因缺补缺、平衡施肥促进茶树无机有机物质循环过程的进程、立体栽培增加茶园生物多样性、免耕或减耕减少土壤碳排放、增施有机肥提高土壤C/N率等;提出提高茶农对低碳的认识、建立茶叶低碳生产示范园区、加强对茶叶生产低碳技术的研究、大力发展有机茶、政府政策导向支持等促进茶叶低碳生产发展建议。采用低碳生产技术,挖掘茶园生态系统的碳汇能力,增加茶园系统碳储量,必将对减少温室气体排放做出重大贡献。     

Comparative Assessment of Grassland NPP Dynamics in Response to Climate Change in China,North America,Europe and Australia from 1981 to 2010

Although climate change has been modifying grassland ecosystems for a long time, few studies on grassland ecosystems have focused on large‐scale responses to climate change. Hence, grassland net primary productivity (NPP) from 1981 to 2010, as well as its variations in China, North America, Europe and Australia, was assessed and compared using a synthetic model in this study. Subsequently, the correlations between the NPP of each grassland type and climate factors were evaluated to reveal the responses of grassland eco‐systems to climate change. The results showed that North America, which has the largest area of grassland ecosystems, exhibits maximum grassland NPP of 4225.30 ± 215.43 Tg DW year^?1, whereas Europe, which has the least area of grassland ecosystems among the four regions, exhibits minimum grassland NPP of 928.95 ± 24.68 Tg DW year^?1. Grassland NPP presented an increasing trend in China and Australia, but decreasing in Europe and North America from 1981 to 2010. In addition, grassland NPP is positively correlated with mean annual precipitation, but demonstrates notable differences with mean annual temperature. In conclusion, climate change has a significant role in explaining the spatiotemporal patterns of and the variations in grassland NPP in the four regions.     

中国林业碳汇项目开发的障碍分析及对策建议

针对林业生态建设周期长、投入大、碳汇效益产出效率低的现状,笔者从资金、技术、制度、模式等方面探讨了中国温室气体自愿减排交易体系下的林业碳汇项目开发障碍,并结合实际提出拓宽投融资渠道、扩充项目方法学、探索减排量预售制度、提高项目业主抗风险能力等建议,以期为促进林业碳汇项目增长提供参考。     

Evolutionary Economic Theories of Sustainable Development

Sustainable development has become the dominant concept in the study of interactions between the economy and the biophysical environment, as well as a generally accepted goal of environmental policy. So far, economists have predominantly applied standard or neo‐classical theory to environmental economic problems. In this article it will be argued that to fully understand a transformation of the economic system towards sustainability, standard environmental economics needs to be complemented by an evolutionary approach, that focuses the attention on irreversible, path‐dependent change and long‐run mutual selection of environmental and economic processes and systems. The article provides an overview of the main existing evolutionary contributions to environmental economics. Furthermore, a number of research directions of an evolutionary approach in environmental economics are discussed. It is suggested that such an approach should go beyond evolutionary theories of technical change, which dominate evolutionary economics so far, by including co‐evolution of economy and environment, sustainable consumption, endogenous preference change, and climate change modeling.     

中国非CO2类温室气体减排潜力及其政策意涵

利用改进后的全球一般均衡环境模型（GTAP-E）及其6版非CO2类温室气体排放数据库,模拟了中国非CO2类温室气体减排潜力及其政策意涵。结果显示,现阶段,中国是世界上非CO2类温室气体排放最多的国家,2020年将会占到世界总排放的20%左右。其中,来自农业部门的非CO2类温室气体排放比重达到73%。未来10年,牛羊类、工业、服务行业的非CO2排放增速最快,且服务业的增速快于工业,并在2010年后超过工业排放。中国可以通过实施非CO2类温室气体减排政策,减轻二氧化碳减排的国际压力。虽然征收较高的碳税能够带来较高的非二氧化碳减排量,但是政策效率在高碳税和低碳税间差异不大。所以,在实施非二氧化碳减排碳税政策时,应该把碳税控制在一个较低的水平。     

The relationship between China's income inequality and transport infrastructure,economic growth,and carbon emissions

Since the beginning of the 21st century, accompanied by the tremendous achievements of China's economic growth is an increasingly severe income gap between the rich and the poor. Based on panel data from 2000 to 2018, this study systematically examined the relationship among transport infrastructure, economic growth, carbon emissions, and income inequality in China, using the panel vector autoregressive model estimated by the generalized method of moments. We further divided China into three regions to investigate the regional heterogeneity of these relationships. The results show a long‐run equilibrium relationship between transport infrastructure, economic growth, carbon emissions, and income inequality. Income inequality in the previous year significantly affects that in the current year positively. Whether at the national or regional level, economic growth affects income inequality negatively. For the national sample, the highway reduces income inequality, while the railway increases income inequality. For both the subsamples and the national sample, carbon emissions significantly increase income inequality and are the Granger test cause for income inequality. Furthermore, we discuss some of the possible mechanisms of these results. Our findings generate policy implications for reducing income inequality in regard to economic growth, transport infrastructure, and carbon emissions.     

气候变化背景下湿地土壤酶活性研究进展

为了深入了解和合理评价气候变化背景下湿地土壤碳、氮等物质循环过程的动态变化。本研究通过对土壤酶在湿地生态系统中的作用及其时空分布特征归纳总结，探讨温度升高、降水变化、温室气体排放增加以及湿地氮营养环境变化等对土壤酶活性的影响。通过总结，认为土壤酶在湿地生态系统中发挥着重要而复杂的作用，气候变化显著影响了其活性，进一步影响湿地土壤碳、氮等循环过程。     

中国农村能源碳排放生态压力研究

[方法]在对2006-2013年我国农村十种主要生活能源消费量及社会经济统计数据的基础上,计算了EEF、EFC的值,构建STIRPAT模型和改进脱钩指数法,[目的]分析2006-2013年的时间序列下中国农村能源碳排放生态压力。[结果]结果显示：(1)煤炭、秸秆、薪柴的年消费量平均分别以1.58%、3.16%和4.26%的速率降低,电力、成品油、液化石油气、煤气、沼气和太阳能的平均分别以25.99%、8.53%、22.78%、4.02%、34.85%、12.82%、9.11%的速率增长;(2)我国农村能源供给超过需求,生活能源消费未对乡村环境形成生态压力;(3)能源利用效率不断提高,单位土地面积和能源碳排放带来的经济价值不断提升;(4)适度降低人口规模、优化人口结构是建设乡村的有效办法;(5)技术是模型中能源碳排放生态压力的唯一抑制因素,对技术进行创新是当前进行乡村建设重要途径。[结论]我国能源消费模式还有巨大的提升空间,还应进一步加强政府调控、注重引导居民绿色消费观,使我国乡村建设向可持续发展方向稳步前进。     

Measuring Smart Land Use in Urban–Rural Regions of China: A Case Study of Pukou,Nanjing City

This article expands the study of smart growth from urban space to urban–rural regions based on land use. It analyses smart land use in urban–rural regions. The study sets up an integrated measure indicator system of smart land use in urban–rural regions, which consisted of three subsystems: land amount controls, land form compactness, and land use efficiency. As a case study, the system was used to measure the smart land use in the Pukou District of Nanjing City, an area with intensive urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta of China. The results show that smart land use in the investigated area is increasing year by year, but it remains to be further improved. The integrated measure indicator system of smart land use in urban–rural regions is effective for measuring the level and status of regional smart land use.     

低碳型新农村建设初探

低碳经济成为全球意志和中国的现实选择。如何推进现代农业建设的顺利进行,提高农民收入和改善农村生态环境,实现农业的可持续发展,这是新农村建设中面临的根本问题。本文阐述了低碳型新农村建设的重要意义和关键举措。     

Impacts and adaptation of the cropping systems to climate change in the Northeast Farming Region of China

The Northeast Farming Region of China (NFR) is a very important crop growing area, comprising seven sub-regions: Xing’anling (XA), Sanjiang (SJ), Northwest Songliao (NSL), Central Songliao (CSL), Southwest Songliao (SSL), Changbaishan (CB) and Liaodong (LD), which has been severely affected by extreme climate events and climatic change. Therefore, a set of expert survey has been done to identify current and project future climate limitations to crop production and explore appropriate adaptation measures in NFR. Droughts have been the largest limitation for maize (Zea mays L.) in NSL and SSL, and for soybean (Glycine max L. Merr.) in SSL. Chilling damage has been the largest limitation for rice (Oryza sativa L.) production in XA, SJ and CB. Projected climate change is expected to be beneficial for expanding the crop growing season, and to provide more suitable conditions for sowing and harvest. Autumn frost will occur later in most parts of NFR, and chilling damage will also decrease, particularly for rice production in XA and SJ. Drought and heat stress are expected to become more severe for maize and soybean production in most parts of NFR. Also, plant diseases, pests and weeds are considered to become more severe for crop production under climate change. Adaptation measures that have already been implemented in recent decades to cope with current climatic limitations include changes in timing of cultivation, variety choice, soil tillage practices, crop protection, irrigation and use of plastic film for soil cover. With the projected climate change and increasing risk of climatic extremes, additional adaptation measures will become relevant for sustaining and improving productivity of crops in NFR to ensure food security in China.     

生物炭施入对盐碱土壤影响的研究现状

盐碱土壤是中国重要的一种中低产土壤类型,由于土壤退化,盐碱地成了重要的后备耕地资源。生物炭作为农业的土壤改良剂、碳封存体和肥料的缓释载体越来越被广泛地认识和关注,在促进农业可持续发展中前景重大。通过综合分析生物炭的施加对盐碱土壤的物理化学性质、养分含量变化、微生物方面及作物生物量的研究进展,分析生物炭在盐碱地的改良效果,总结了生物炭在盐碱地改良的可能机制,以期为盐碱地的治理提供参考。     

构建城乡资本正常流动机制，统筹城乡经济发展

党的十六大报告提出要统筹城乡发展。而长期以来,农村资本却通过各种渠道不合理地流向城市,从而制约着农村的发展。在市场机制作用下,资本趋利性会使外流更加严重。因此必须构建合理的城乡资本流动机制,才能统筹城乡发展。财政要通过立法和政策保障,通过税收、投资、各种补贴、转移支付等形式对农村“多予少取”;农村金融则要真正办成为“三农”服务的金融组织。