The World Bank's Support for Science and Technology

The World Bank, the largest aid-granting agency in the world, has played a substantial but largely unsung role in helping the scientific and technological development of developing countries. Its investments, totaling $15.5 billion in fiscal year 1984, involve choosing appropriate technology and financing local technological development. Since 1980, the Bank has lent $0.5 billion for agricultural research and about $1 billion for scientific and technological education. It contributes to and mobilizes finances for large international research programs in agriculture and the health sciences. It supports research on labor-based construction, low-cost sanitation, renewable energy resources, and control of traffic congestion. It provides training in the technological aspects of development policy. As funds for aid become scarce, the Bank is reexamining its approach to science and technology.     

全球转基因作物的产业化发展

转基因作物进行第一次大规模商业化种植始于1996年,至2007年,12年来,全球转基因作物的种植面积增加了66倍,达到1.143亿hm2,比2006年增加了12%。同时,随着智利和波兰的加入,种植转基因作物的国家由最初6个增加到23个,其中,发展中国家(12)在数量上首次超过发达国家(11)。种植转基因作物的农户比2006年又增加了200万户,总种植户达到1 200万。全球转基因作物市场价值累计约425亿美元。2007年,全球转基因作物市场价值达到69亿美元,占农作物总价值的16%,占种子市场价值的20%。专家预测,2008年全球转基因作物市场价值大约可达到75亿美元。     

The tokamak: model T fusion reactor

During the past several years there have been significant scientific and technological advances related to the tokamak magnetic confinement scheme. These are summarized in the context of a recent tokamak reactor design study which emphasizes reduced size, higher power density, and enhanced plant reliability and maintainability relative to earlier tokamak reactor design studies. The direct plant cost of the proposed reactor is estimated to be in the range $1000 to $1500 per electrical kilowatt. A three-phase strategy for demonstrating tokamak fusion power generation at a committed site is outlined. It is estimated that implementation of the three-phase program would require about 20 years and a total escalated expenditure $10 billion to $15 billion. The tokamak power plant described here is not viewed as definitive but rather as a point of departure in the development of a plan to demonstrate tokamak power generation.     

广西公益林生态效益补偿研究

为了研究合理的公益林生态效益补偿标准,维持公益林的经营动力,该文采用林木资产评估方法和本金折息法,并以价值损失补偿计量标准,计算公益林生态效益补偿金额.结果表明:①如果政府一次性购买广西集体和个人经营的公益林归国家所有,对公益林经营者进行补偿所需的补偿金额为220亿元人民币;②如果公益林产权不变,仍由所有者按公益林建设规程进行经营,保证公益林正常发挥生态效益,每年对公益林经营者进行补偿所需的补偿金额为7.22亿元人民币.各树种类型公益林补偿标准为:杉木236.0元/(hm2·a)、马尾松214.4元/(hm2·a)、阔叶树219.1元/(hm2·a)、桉树195.4元/(hm2·a)、竹林87.4元/(hm2·a)、灌木林39.1元/(hm2·a).公益林有典型的外部经济性,政府必须对公益林经营者进行合理的经济补偿才能维持公益林的经营动力.      

2001 BUDGET: NSF and NASA Score Last-Minute Victories

Congress last week gave both NASA and the National Science Foundation (NSF) significant hikes for 2001: NSF got $4.42 billion, a $522 million boost over this year that nearly matched NSF's 17% request, and NASA received $14.3 billion, nearly twice the White House's request for a 3% boost-but with hundreds of millions of dollars in earmarks added on.     

Improving the health of the global poor

We analyzed the technical basis for a major global program to reduce disease among the poor. Effective interventions exist against the few diseases which most account for excess mortality among the poor. Achieving high coverage of effective interventions requires a well-functioning health system, as well as overcoming a set of financial and nonfinancial constraints. The annual incremental cost would be between $40 billion and $52 billion by 2015 in 83 low-income and sub-Saharan African countries. Such a program is feasible and would avoid millions of child, maternal, and adult deaths annually in poor countries.     

Areawide suppression of European corn borer with Bt maize reaps savings to non-Bt maize growers

Transgenic maize engineered to express insecticidal proteins from the bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) has become widely adopted in U.S. agriculture. In 2009, Bt maize was planted on more than 22.2 million hectares, constituting 63% of the U.S. crop. Using statistical analysis of per capita growth rate estimates, we found that areawide suppression of the primary pest Ostrinia nubilalis (European corn borer) is associated with Bt maize use. Cumulative benefits over 14 years are an estimated $3.2 billion for maize growers in Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, with more than $2.4 billion of this total accruing to non-Bt maize growers. Comparable estimates for Iowa and Nebraska are $3.6 billion in total, with $1.9 billion for non-Bt maize growers. These results affirm theoretical predictions of pest population suppression and highlight economic incentives for growers to maintain non-Bt maize refugia for sustainable insect resistance management.     

中国农产品贸易平衡分析与展望

21世纪以来,中国农产品贸易发展迅速,2012年农产品进出口总额由2001年的277.8亿美元增长到1740.5亿美元,年均增速18.2%。耕地和水资源不足、劳动力资源丰富的资源禀赋决定了农产品贸易明显的结构性特征,自2004年开始出现逆差且呈扩大之势,2012年逆差额达到489.2亿美元,是2004年的10倍。其中,既有国内供需矛盾、结构性调剂、主动开放市场和利用国外市场资源的原因,也有国际市场价格变动和国际贸易壁垒的因素。展望未来,中国农产品贸易规模将不断扩大,逆差将成为常态但增速有望放缓,农产品贸易政策调控也将有针对性地因势利导。     

ECOLOGY: Louisiana's Vanishing Wetlands: Going, Going ..

An ambitious $14 billion plan known as Coast 2050 attempts to protect more than 10,000 square kilometers of Louisiana's wetlands, which are disappearing at a rate of up to 90 square kilometers per year, one of the highest rates of land loss in the world. But a number of unanswered scientific questions swirl around the plan. And it could run afoul of powerful interests in the shipping, petroleum, and fishing industries.     

2012年中国蔬菜进出口情况分析

对2012年中国蔬菜进出口情况进行了分析,结果表明,2012年中国进口蔬菜约21．14万t,合计2．84亿美元,进口量、值同比分别增长32．56％和35．87％;加工蔬菜和干蔬菜进口明显增长,其中加工蔬菜进口16．19万t,同比增33．36％,干蔬菜进口2．32万t,同比增100．86％;美国、东南亚国家和地区是主要的蔬菜进口来源地,非洲来源蔬菜大幅增长;亚洲其他国家和地区是中国蔬菜主要出口地;受多种因素影响,全年蔬菜出口约934．28万t,合计98．21亿美元,出口量、值同比分别减少3．97％和15．52％,其中干蔬菜出口量、值大幅减少,同比分别减少25．86％和36．79％;月度进出口量波动增长,不同大类间有所差异。整体看,2012年中国蔬菜在国际市场上继续保持比较优势,进出口继续呈贸易顺差态势,预计这种趋势短期内不会发生变化,中国蔬菜进出口贸易将继续保持良好发展态势。     

Corrections and clarifications

The 1994 and 1995 federal science budget appropriations for two of the activities were inadvertently transposed in a table that accompanied the article "Hitting the President's target is mixed blessing for agencies" by Jeffrey Mervis (News & Comment, 14 Oct., p. 211). The correct figures for Defense Department spending on university research are $1.460 billion in 1994 and $1.279 billion in 1995; for research and development at NASA, the correct figures are $9.455 billion in 1994 and $9.824 billion in 1995.     

Population trends and prospects

For the next 20 years there is likely to be a slowing of population growth rates for all areas of the world except Africa. The present population of developed countries is expected to increase by about 12 percent by the year 2000; that of all developing countries is expected to increase by about 50 percent. The momentum of population growth is strong; a few analysts suggest that growth may cease at 8 billion, but a figure of more than 10 billion seems much more likely.     

Recent changes in atmospheric carbon monoxide

Measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) in air samples collected from 27 locations between 71 degrees N and 41 degrees S show that atmospheric levels of this gas have decreased worldwide over the past 2 to 5 years. During this period, CO decreased at nearly a constant rate in the high northern latitudes. In contrast, in the tropics an abrupt decrease occurred beginning at the end of 1991. In the Northern Hemisphere, CO decreased at a spatially and temporally averaged rate of 7.3 (+/-0.9) parts per billion per year (6.1 percent per year) from June 1990 to June 1993, whereas in the Southern Hemisphere, CO decreased 4.2 (+/-0.5) parts per billion per year (7.0 percent per year). This recent change is opposite a long-term trend of a 1 to 2 percent per year increase inferred from measurements made in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 30 years.     

Impact of humans on the flux of terrestrial sediment to the global coastal ocean

Here we provide global estimates of the seasonal flux of sediment, on a river-by-river basis, under modern and prehuman conditions. Humans have simultaneously increased the sediment transport by global rivers through soil erosion (by 2.3 +/- 0.6 billion metric tons per year), yet reduced the flux of sediment reaching the world's coasts (by 1.4 +/- 0.3 billion metric tons per year) because of retention within reservoirs. Over 100 billion metric tons of sediment and 1 to 3 billion metric tons of carbon are now sequestered in reservoirs constructed largely within the past 50 years. African and Asian rivers carry a greatly reduced sediment load; Indonesian rivers deliver much more sediment to coastal areas.     

Human food from ocean and land

The figures in Table 1 yield some interesting results. The total annual value of food and mineral resources taken from the ocean is $8.3 billion, in contrast to $309 billion from the land. Using the land value as the yardstick, if the annual value of produce from the ocean were in ratio to the area relationship of ocean and land, the ocean potential would be $750 billion; the actual recovery for 1964 was only 1.1 percent of that potential. This very low percentage is the basis for either great optimism for the future development of the ocean (on the basis of unrealized potential), or great pessimism (on the basis of high costs compared with further development of land resources, or present exploitation to near the limit of productivity).     

Humans as the world's greatest evolutionary force

In addition to altering global ecology, technology and human population growth also affect evolutionary trajectories, dramatically accelerating evolutionary change in other species, especially in commercially important, pest, and disease organisms. Such changes are apparent in antibiotic and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) resistance to drugs, plant and insect resistance to pesticides, rapid changes in invasive species, life-history change in commercial fisheries, and pest adaptation to biological engineering products. This accelerated evolution costs at least $33 billion to $50 billion a year in the United States. Slowing and controlling arms races in disease and pest management have been successful in diverse ecological and economic systems, illustrating how applied evolutionary principles can help reduce the impact of humankind on evolution.     

The global impact of scaling up HIV/AIDS prevention programs in low- and middle-income countries

A strong, global commitment to expanded prevention programs targeted at sexual transmission and transmission among injecting drug users, started now, could avert 28 million new HIV infections between 2005 and 2015. This figure is more than half of the new infections that might otherwise occur during that period in 125 low- and middle-income countries. Although preventing these new infections would require investing about U.S.$122 billion over this period, it would reduce future needs for treatment and care. Our analysis suggests that it will cost about U.S.$3900 to prevent each new infection, but that this will produce a savings of U.S.$4700 in forgone treatment and care costs. Thus, greater spending on prevention now would not only prevent more than half the new infections that would occur from 2005 to 2015 but would actually produce a net financial saving as future costs for treatment and care are averted.     

Crust formation and plate motion in the early archean

Mounting evidence for voluminous continental crust formation in the early Archean involving intracrustal melting and selective preservation of granitoid rocks suggests that initial crust formation crust formation and growth were predominantly by magmatic underplating in plumegenerated Iceland-type settings. Collision of these early islands to give rise to larger blocks is suggested by extensive horizontal shortening in both supracrustal and granitoid assemblages. Preservation of early Archean high-grade gneisses that were once at depths of 20 to 30 kilometers implies that these blocks developed thick, subcrustal roots despite high mantle heat flow. Rigid continental plates must have existed since at least 3.5 billion years ago, and greenstone belts (composed of mixed metavolcanic and metasedimentary sequences intruded by granitoid plutons) probably developed on or near these microcontinents. Paleomagnetic data with good age control from at least one ancient craton suggest that plate motion was at normal minimum average velocities of about 17 millimeters per year with respect to the poles during the period 3.5 billion to 2.4 billion years ago. If this is true on a global scale, Archean plate motion was not faster than in later geologic times.     

Snowfall-driven growth in East Antarctic ice sheet mitigates recent sea-level rise

Satellite radar altimetry measurements indicate that the East Antarctic ice-sheet interior north of 81.6 degrees S increased in mass by 45 +/- 7 billion metric tons per year from 1992 to 2003. Comparisons with contemporaneous meteorological model snowfall estimates suggest that the gain in mass was associated with increased precipitation. A gain of this magnitude is enough to slow sea-level rise by 0.12 +/- 0.02 millimeters per year.     

京杭大运河（鲁南段）沿岸城市生态系统服务功能价值评估——以台儿庄区为例

根据台儿庄区土地利用变化,研究了该区生态系统服务功能价值的变化。结果表明,1979～2002年台儿庄区生态系统服务功能价值由8.024亿元降至5.139亿元,损失速率为0.125亿元/年。说明台儿庄区生态环境质量不断下降,生态系统处于退化状态。