Estimating natural forest fire return interval in northeastern Ontario,Canada

Long-term forest fire regime was simulated for the Moose River Forest Management Unit (FMU) in northeastern Ontario. The simulated area has not been managed for timber production and fire suppression activity has been minimal. The available data included fire records for 1970–2006 and forest age structure from forest resource inventory completed in 1978. The fire regime was simulated using a simple percolation model driven by three parameters: probabilities of fire spread during low and high fire activity years and of a given year being a low fire activity year. The model successfully generated a long-term fire regime producing age structure and 37-year-long fire records similar to those observed for the Moose River FMU. The simulation results suggest that (a) fire return interval in northeastern Ontario is likely much shorter than indicated by estimates based exclusively on data from the last four decades of fire activity, and (b) it is possible that the fire regime in northeastern Ontario has not changed since mid-1800s but rather is characterized by relatively long periods of low incidence of fire interspersed with pulses of high fire activity.     

Emulating natural disturbances as a forest management goal: Lessons from fire regime simulations

Emulating natural forest disturbance is an increasingly popular forest management paradigm that is considered a means of achieving forest sustainability. Adopting this goal requires a sound understanding of natural disturbances at scales that correspond to management policies and strategies. In boreal forest landscapes driven by periodic stand-replacing fires this requires knowledge of fire regime characteristics, especially their spatial and temporal variability as well as stochasticity. The major goal of this study was to demonstrate the utility of fire regime simulation modeling to explore the variability of fire regime characteristics, with respect to formulating and assessing forest management strategies. We conducted a modeling experiment in a boreal forest landscape of northwestern Ontario, Canada, to examine its long-term fire regime in relation to forest policies on harvest size distribution. We used BFOLDS, a spatially explicit fire regime model that simulates individual fire events mechanistically in response to fire weather, fuel patterns, and terrain. The fire regimes in four large eco-regions were modeled for a 200-year period under three fire-weather (cold, normal, and warm) scenarios, with replications. We found that fire size distribution in all eco-regions followed power law under all weather scenarios, but their slopes and intercepts varied among eco-regions and fire weather scenarios. Warming fire weather increased burn rates and fire numbers in all eco-regions, albeit to different degrees. Overall, the variability among eco-regions was higher than the variability among fire weather scenarios, and among replicates. Comparisons of simulated fire size classes with those from an 86-year long fire history showed that empirical data cannot capture the variability that could be revealed by simulation modeling. We also show that fire size distribution is spatially heterogeneous within eco-regions, and provide several suggestions for forest policy directions with respect to forest harvest size distributions and harvest rates, based on the variability of fire regime characteristics. An assessment of present forest policies of emulating natural disturbances that guide forest harvest sizes showed that these are incongruent with simulated fire size distributions under all scenarios with one exception. Overall, this study illustrates the value of scenario simulation modeling to explore and quantify the variability of forest fire regime, for use in forest policies and strategies that attempt to emulate natural disturbance.     

林火行为蔓延模型研究进展

森林火行为特征是进行林火预防和林火扑救的主要参考依据之一,林火行为研究在森林防火中具有重要意义。其中,林火蔓延作为关键的林火行为特征因子,林火蔓延模拟模型的构建研究一直是国内外的研究热点。文中将国内外各主要林火蔓延模拟模型按照模拟维度分为一维的传统模型和二维的空间模拟模型,总结了不同构建方法下传统模型的应用特点以及空间模拟模型的构成方法和选择;介绍了目前美国、加拿大、澳大利亚等林火管理发达国家主流的林火空间模拟系统的关键技术要点和适用条件;结合我国实际情况提出了相关研究应用建议,以期为发展我国自己的林火蔓延空间模拟模型提供参考。     

Simulating restoration strategies for a southern boreal forest landscape with complex land ownership patterns

Restoring altered forest landscapes toward their ranges of natural variability (RNV) may enhance ecosystem sustainability and resiliency, but such efforts can be hampered by complex land ownership and management patterns. We evaluated restoration potential for southern-boreal forests in the ∼2.1 million ha Border Lakes Region of northern Minnesota (U.S.A.) and Ontario (Canada), where spatially distinct timber harvest and fire suppression histories have differentially altered forest conditions (composition, age–class distribution, and landscape structure) among major management areas, effectively resulting in forest landscape “bifurcation.” We used a forest landscape simulation model to evaluate potential for four hypothetical management and two natural disturbance scenarios to restore forest conditions and reduce bifurcation, including: (1) a current management scenario that simulated timber harvest and fire suppression practices among major landowners; (2) three restoration scenarios that simulated combinations of wildland fire use and cross-boundary timber harvest designed to emulate natural disturbance patterns; (3) a historical natural disturbance scenario that simulated pre-EuroAmerican settlement fire regimes and windthrow; and (4) a contemporary fire regime that simulated fire suppression, but no timber harvest. Forest composition and landscape structure for a 200-year model period were compared among scenarios, among major land management regions within scenarios, and to six RNV benchmarks. The current management scenario met only one RNV benchmark and did not move forest composition, age–class distribution, or landscape structures toward the RNV, and it increased forest landscape bifurcation between primarily timber-managed and wilderness areas. The historical natural disturbance scenario met five RNV benchmarks and the restoration scenarios as many as five, by generally restoring forest composition, age–class distributions, and landscape structures, and reducing bifurcation of forest conditions. The contemporary natural disturbance scenario met only one benchmark and generally created a forest landscape dominated by large patches of late-successional, fire-prone forests. Some forest types (e.g., white and red pine) declined in all scenarios, despite simulated restoration strategies. It may not be possible to achieve all objectives under a single management scenario, and complications, such as fire-risk, may limit strategies. However, our model suggests that timber harvest and fire regimes that emulate natural disturbance patterns can move forest landscapes toward the RNV.     

基于计算机图形技术的森林火灾模拟蔓延模型

利用计算机图形技术,以波动传播模型为基础,吸收了邻接单元模型的优点,设计基于计算机图形技术的林火模拟蔓延模型.这种模型用预定义的灰度图表示蔓延状态,将图元集中存储的过火区形状按一定的像素栅格运算规则写入灰度图中,来模拟火灾的波动蔓延过程.模型还利用漫染填充算法来处理具有复杂拓扑关系的地理要素附近的蔓延,并将过火区形状的投影变换转化为图元的旋转和错切变换.分析这种模型性能上的优势和局限,包括对局部失真和畸变的影响.从给出的算例和初步的理论分析可见,新模型可以将林火蔓延模拟的计算速度提高1个数量级以上,其他计算性能也有大幅度提高.模型可以为森林火灾的扑救提供精确、实时、全局的火场发展预测图,并且不受火行为的复杂性和地理要素的复杂性的限制.     

Historic and current fire regimes in the Great Xing’an Mountains,northeastern China: Implications for long-term forest management

Understanding both historic and current fire regimes is indispensable to sustainable forest landscape management. In this paper, we use a spatially explicit landscape simulation model, LANDIS, to simulate historic and current fire regimes in the Great Xing’an Mountains, in northeastern China. We analyzed fire frequency, fire size, fire intensity, and spatial pattern of burnt patches. Our simulated results show that fire frequency under the current fire scenario is lower than under the historic fire scenario; total area burnt is larger with lower fire intensity under the historic fire scenario, and smaller with higher fire intensity under the current fire scenario. We also found most areas were burned by high intensity fires under the current fire scenario, but by low to moderate fires under the historic fire scenario. Burnt patches exhibit a different pattern between the two simulation scenarios. Large patches burnt by high intensity class fires dominate the landscape under the current fire scenario, and under historic fire scenario, patches burnt by low to moderate fire intensity fires have relatively larger size than those burnt by high intensity fires. Based on these simulated results, we suggest that prescribed burning or coarse woody debris reduction should be incorporated into forest management plans in this region, especially on north-facing slopes. Tree planting may be a better management option on these severely burned areas whereas prescribed burning after small area selective cutting, retaining dispersed seed trees, may be a sound forest management alternative in areas except for the severely burned patches.     

Spatially explicit modeling of mixed-severity fire regimes and landscape dynamics

Simulation models of disturbance and succession are being increasingly applied to characterize landscape composition and dynamics under natural fire regimes, and to evaluate alternative management strategies for ecological restoration and fire hazard reduction. However, we have a limited understanding of how landscapes respond to changes in fire frequency, and about the sensitivity of model predictions to assumptions about successional pathways and fire behavior. We updated an existing landscape dynamics model (LADS) to simulate the complex interactions between forest dynamics, fire spread, and fire effects in dry forests of the interior Pacific Northwest. Experimental model runs were conducted on a hypothetical landscape at fire rotations ranging from 5 to 50 years. Three sensitivity analyses were carried out to explore the responses of landscape composition to (1) parameters characterizing succession and fire effects on vegetation, (2) the probability of fire spread into different successional stages, and (3) the size and spatial pattern of static fire refugia. The area of old open-canopy forests was highest at the shortest fire rotations, and was particularly sensitive to the probability of stand-replacement fire in open-canopy forests and to the fire-free period required for ingrowth to occur in open-canopy forests. The area of old closed-canopy forests increased with lengthening fire rotation, but always comprised a relatively small portion of the landscape (<10%). The area of old closed-canopy forests increased when fire spread was more rapid in open-canopy forests than in closed-canopy forests, and when the physical landscape incorporated large “fire refugia” with low fire spread rates. Old closed-canopy forests appear to comprise a relatively minor landscape component in mixed-severity fire regimes with fire rotations of 50 years or less. However, these results are sensitive to assumptions about the spatial interactions between fire spread, landscape vegetation patterns, and the underlying physical landscape.     

Study of landscape change under forest harvesting and climate warming-induced fire disturbance

We examined tree species responses under forest harvesting and an increased fire disturbance scenario due to climate warming in northern Wisconsin where northern hardwood and boreal forests are currently predominant. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was simulated with a gap model, which integrates soil, climate and species data, stratified by ecoregions. Such responses were quantified as species establishment coefficients. These coefficients were used to parameterize a spatially explicit landscape model, LANDIS. Species response to climate warming at the landscape scale was simulated with LANDIS, which integrates ecosystem dynamics with spatial processes including seed dispersal, fire disturbance, and forest harvesting. Under a 5 °C annual temperature increase predicted by global climate models (GCM), our simulation results suggest that significant change in species composition and abundance could occur in the two ecoregions in the study area. In the glacial lake plain (lakeshore) ecoregion under warming conditions, boreal and northern hardwood species such as red oak, sugar maple, white pine, balsam fir, paper birch, yellow birch, and aspen decline gradually during and after climate warming. Southern species such as white ash, hickory, bur oak, black oak, and white oak, which are present in minor amounts before the warming, increase in abundance on the landscape. The transition of the northern hardwood and boreal forest to one dominated by southern species occurs around year 200. In the sand barrens ecoregion under warming conditions, red pine initially benefits from the decline of other northern hardwood species, and its abundance quickly increases. However, red pine and jack pine as well as new southern species are unable to reproduce, and the ecoregion could transform into a region with only grass and shrub species around 250 years under warming climate. Increased fire frequency can accelerate the decline of shade-tolerant species such as balsam fir and sugar maple and accelerate the northward migration of southern species. Forest harvesting accelerated the decline of northern hardwood and boreal tree species. This is especially obvious on the barrens ecoregion, where the intensive cutting regime contributed to the decline of red pine and jack pine already under stressed environments. Forest managers may instead consider a conservative cutting plan or protective management scenarios with limited forest harvesting. This could prolong the transformation of the barrens into prairie from one-half to one tree life cycle.     

Simulating effects of fire on northern Rocky Mountain landscapes with the ecological process model FIRE-BGC

A mechanistic, biogeochemical succession model, FIRE-BGC, was used to investigate the role of fire on long-term landscape dynamics in northern Rocky Mountain coniferous forests of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. FIRE-BGC is an individual-tree model-created by merging the gap-phase process-based model FIRESUM with the mechanistic ecosystem biogeochemical model FOREST-BGC-that has mixed spatial and temporal resolution in its simulation architecture. Ecological processes that act at a landscape level, such as fire and seed dispersal, are simulated annually from stand and topographic information. Stand-level processes, such as tree establishment, growth and mortality, organic matter accumulation and decomposition, and undergrowth plant dynamics are simulated both daily and annually. Tree growth is mechanistically modeled based on the ecosystem process approach of FOREST-BGC where carbon is fixed daily by forest canopy photosynthesis at the stand level. Carbon allocated to the tree stem at the end of the year generates the corresponding diameter and height growth. The model also explicitly simulates fire behavior and effects on landscape characteristics. We simulated the effects of fire on ecosystem characteristics of net primary productivity, evapotranspiration, standing crop biomass, nitrogen cycling and leaf area index over 200 years for the 50,000-ha McDonald Drainage in Glacier National Park. Results show increases in net primary productivity and available nitrogen when fires are included in the simulation. Standing crop biomass and evapotranspiration decrease under a fire regime. Shade-intolerant species dominate the landscape when fires are excluded. Model tree increment predictions compared well with field data.     

基于改进的元胞自动机林火蔓延模拟研究与实现

根据我国森林火灾蔓延的特点,在分析了国内外主流林火蔓延模型的基础上,将元胞自动机原理与林火蔓延自身的特点相结合,着重研究了风作用系数、地形坡度调整系数等在元胞自动机中的作用形式,并引入地图代数中距离系数的概念,对原有林火蔓延速度模型进行改进,以提高模拟精度,使模拟结果更加真实地反映现实世界中林火的蔓延特点。最后采用C#语言结合ArcEngine的编程技术,以汕头市某山地DEM(数字高程模型)数据为例,动态模拟了林火蔓延的过程。     

Modeling Mediterranean forest fuels by integrating field data and mapping tools

Fire behavior modeling systems are important in predicting wildfire risk, fire growth, and fire effects. However, simulation software requires a new fuel modeling to include fuel treatments, prescribed fire and the transition to crown fire. The thirteen Rothermel models are insufficient in completely representing Mediterranean ecosystems. In this sense, the new American modeling includes five fuel types, requiring the acquisition of hybrid models made up of the mixture of grass and shrub and the grass or shrub mixed with litter from forest canopy. Respecting meteorological conditions and shrub characteristics, field studies have shown significant differences between American and Mediterranean models. As a consequence, the definition of new Mediterranean models requires the adjustment of specific parameters such as fuel load by category (live and dead) and particle size class (1-, 10- and 100-h time-lag), fuelbed depth and surface area-to-volume ratio. These new parameters were obtained in situ of sample itineraries, prescribed fires, and forest fires. The availability of this new modeling, validated on a field of regional scale, will facilitate preventive planning and management as well as an efficient application of suppression techniques, both ground and aerial operations, required in defending a territory against forest fires.     

虚拟景观下林火蔓延三维可视化研究进展

林火行为的研究与RS、GIS、GPS、林火数学模型、信息网络、数据库、计算机图形学、虚拟现实等技术密切相关,近些年来,这些技术的发展以及其集成化,使得对林火的研究从二维表达方式,再到如今的三维可视化表达,经过了一个又一个阶段.林火蔓延模拟与可视化的研究趋势是注重真实再现三维虚拟森林景观、多用户参与快速决策和网络信息服务等方面.文章以林火模型的发展、林火模拟系统的实现、以及与之相关的可视化技术的发展、林火模拟的实例几点为框架,对如今虚拟景观下林火蔓延三维可视化技术的研究状况和趋势进行了概述.     

Climate change effects on historical range and variability of two large landscapes in western Montana,USA

Quantifying the historical range and variability of landscape composition and structure using simulation modeling is becoming an important means of assessing current landscape condition and prioritizing landscapes for ecosystem restoration. However, most simulated time series are generated using static climate conditions which fail to account for the predicted major changes in future climate. This paper presents a simulation study that generates reference landscape compositions for all combinations of three climate scenarios (warm-wet, hot-dry, and current) and three fire regime scenarios (half historical, historical, and double historical fire frequencies) to determine if future climate change has an effect on landscape dynamics. We applied the spatially explicit, state-and-transition, landscape fire succession model LANDSUM to two large landscapes in west-central Montana, USA. LANDSUM was parameterized and initialized using spatial data generated from the LANDFIRE prototype project. Biophysical settings, critical spatial inputs to LANDSUM, were empirically modeled across the landscape using environmental gradients created from historical and modeled future climate daily weather data summaries. Successional pathways and disturbance probabilities were assigned to these biophysical settings based on existing field data and extensive literature reviews. To assess the impact of changes in climate and fire regime, we compared simulated area burned and landscape composition over time among the different simulation scenario combinations using response variables of Sorenson's index (a global measure of similarity) and area occupied by the dominant vegetation class (simple indicator of change in landscape composition). Results show that simulated time series using future predicted climate scenarios are significantly different from the simulated historical time series and any changes in the fire regime tend to create more dissimilar and more variable simulated time series. Our study results indicate that historical time series should be used in conjunction with simulated future time series as references for managing landscapes.     

Oak decline in the Boston Mountains,Arkansas, USA: Spatial and temporal patterns under two fire regimes

A spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model is used to delineate the extent and dispersion of oak decline under two fire regimes over a 150-year period. The objectives of this study are to delineate potential current and future oak decline areas using species composition and age structure data in combination with ecological land types, and to investigate how relatively frequent simulated fires and fire suppression affect the dynamics of oak decline. We parameterized LANDIS, a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, for areas in the Boston Mountains of Arkansas, USA. Land type distribution and initial species/age class were parameterized into LANDIS using existing forest data. Tree species were parameterized as five functional groups including white oak (Quercus alba L., Quercus stellata Wangenh., Quercus muehlenbergii Engelm.), red oak (Qurecus rubra L., Quercus marilandica Muenchh., Quercus falcata Michx., Quercus coccinea Muenchh.), black oak (Quercus velutina Lam.), shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill), and maple (Acer rubrum L., Acer saccharum Marsh.) groups. Two fire regimes were also parameterized: current fire regime with a fire return interval of 300 years and a historic fire regime with an overall average fire return interval of 50 years. The 150-year simulation suggests that white oak and shortleaf pine abundance would increase under the historic fire regime and that the red oak group abundance increases under the current fire regime. The black oak group also shows a strong increasing trend under the current fire regime, and only the maple group remains relatively unchanged under both scenarios. At present, 45% of the sites in the study area are classified as potential oak decline sites (sites where red and black oak are >70 years old). After 150 simulation years, 30% of the sites are classified as potential oak decline sites under the current fire regime whereas 20% of the sites are potential oak decline sites under the historic fire regime. This analysis delineates potential oak decline sites and establishes risk ratings for these areas. This is a further step toward precision management and planning.     

Improving the establishment submodel of a forest patch model to assess the long-term protective effect of mountain forests

Simulation models such as forest patch models can be used to forecast the development of forest structural attributes over time. However, predictions of such models with respect to the impact of forest dynamics on the long-term protective effect of mountain forests may be of limited accuracy where tree regeneration is simulated with little detail. For this reason, we improved the establishment submodel of the ForClim forest patch model by implementing a more detailed representation of tree regeneration. Our refined submodel included canopy shading and ungulate browsing, two important constraints to sapling growth in mountain forests. To compare the old and the new establishment submodel of ForClim, we simulated the successional dynamics of the Stotzigwald protection forest in the Swiss Alps over a 60-year period. This forest provides protection for an important traffic route, but currently contains an alarmingly low density of tree regeneration. The comparison yielded a significantly longer regeneration period for the new model version, bringing the simulations into closer agreement with the known slow stand dynamics of mountain forests. In addition, the new model version was applied to forecast the future ability of the Stotzigwald forest to buffer the valley below from rockfall disturbance. Two scenarios were simulated: (1) canopy shading but no browsing impact, and (2) canopy shading and high browsing impact. The simulated stand structures were then compared to stand structure targets for rockfall protection, in order to assess their long-term protective effects. Under both scenarios, the initial sparse level of tree regeneration affected the long-term protective effect of the forest, which considerably declined during the first 40 years. In the complete absence of browsing, the density of small trees increased slightly after 60 years, raising hope for an eventual recovery of the protective effect. In the scenario that included browsing, however, the density of small trees remained at very low levels. With our improved establishment submodel, we provide an enhanced tool for studying the impacts of structural dynamics on the long-term protective effect of mountain forests. For certain purposes, it is important that predictive models of forest dynamics adequately represent critical processes for tree regeneration, such as sapling responses to low light levels and high browsing pressure.     

Forest fuel mapping and evaluation of LANDFIRE fuel maps in Boulder County,Colorado, USA

A key challenge in modern wildfire mitigation and forest management is accurate mapping of forest fuels in order to determine spatial fire hazard, plan mitigation efforts, and manage active fires. This study quantified forest fuels of the montane zone of Boulder County, CO, USA in an effort to aid wildfire mitigation planning and provide a metric by which LANDFIRE national fuel maps may be compared. Using data from 196 randomly stratified field plots, pre-existing vegetation maps, and derived variables, predictive classification and regression tree models were created for four fuel parameters necessary for spatial fire simulation with FARSITE (surface fuel model, canopy bulk density, canopy base height, and stand height). These predictive models accounted for 56–62% of the variability in forest fuels and produced fuel maps that predicted 91.4% and 88.2% of the burned area of two historic fires simulated in the FARSITE model. Simulations of areas burned based on LANDFIRE national fuel maps were less accurate, burning 77.7% and 40.3% of the historic fire areas. Our results indicate that fuel mapping efforts that utilize local area information and biotic as well as abiotic predictors will more accurately simulate fire spread rates and reflect the inherent variability of forested environments than do current LANDFIRE data products.     

林火与气候变化研究进展

火是全球大多森林生态系统中的一个重要干扰因子, 它对大气中的温室气体和气溶胶的增加有显著影响。林火与气候变化是当前林火研究领域的热点问题。文中综述了气候变化对林火的影响和林火排放物对气候变化的影响。大量研究表明, 气候变化将导致森林火险期延长, 出现潜在极端火行为的天数增多, 森林火灾更加严重, 特别是北方森林火灾增加显著。未来的研究趋势是, 采用卫星遥感数据在大尺度上研究气候变化对林火的影响, 把林火模型与气候模式和全球植被动力学模型耦合, 构建更为复杂的林火排放模型, 以深入揭示林火与气候变化的关系。     

林火蔓延模型及其动态模拟初探

森林着火之后,火向四周和上下不断蔓延,使大片森林发生火灾,给森林生态系统和人类带来一定的损失。结合我国的实际情况,本文采用林火蔓延的椭圆模型和遍历各点的林火蔓延模型对林火行为进行动态模拟,旨在推动林火蔓延的研究工作从定性的理论分析向定量化的研究方向发展,从而为森林防火、救火部门提供科学依据。     

森林火灾蔓延模拟现状与展望

在国内外研究林火行为的基础上,对近年来我国实现林火蔓延模拟所采用的主要方法及其选用的林火蔓延模型进行了深入阐述,并讨论了这些方法的适用范围及其优缺点,以及林火研究今后的发展趋势。     

森林火灾的计算机仿真研究

建立森林防火仿真系统，通过给出建立仿真系统的一般步骤，结合林火行为、气象条件和可燃物条件等建立森林防火的防真系统。通过仿真，可以直观地掌握林火的发生，发展和蔓延的过程，以及林火蔓延的方向等，为森林防火部门的火灾预测、指挥扑救提供很好的支持。