Seasonal Fluxes of Particulate Matter in a Small Closed Lake in Northern Estonia

The seasonal fluxes of dry matter, spheroidal fly-ash particles and pollen were studied in a small mesotrophic lake in order to reveal the patterns of their spatial-temporal distribution in regard to seasonal variations. Sediment traps deployed in the lake at different depths and locationswere used to collect samples for calculating sediment fluxes in two years. The results show that resuspension of settled particles in the lake with a small dynamic ratio is moderate and depends on seasonal changes in thermal stratification. The rate of particle deposition during the summer stratification period was low. The weather conditions during early spring, such as air temperature and the thickness of snow-cover, influence the intensity of resuspension. Air temperature and cloudiness during the summer stratification period determine the rate of bioproduction and thermocline parameters, which also have a major effect on the seston composition and fluxes.     

Silicon budget of eutrophic Lake Kasumigaura, Japan

Purpose

Determining the dynamics of silicon in lakes, one of the essential nutrients for diatoms, is valuable for understanding aquatic environmental problems. The dissolved silicon (DSi) and biogenic silicon (BSi) budgets in Lake Kasumigaura, a shallow eutrophic lake in Japan, during the last three decades were assessed based on the analysis of dated sediment cores and a water quality database.

Materials and methods

Sediment cores (100?cm long) were taken at the center of Lake Kasumigaura in 2005, 2007, and 2009 and at two other sites in 2007. BSi contents of the dated sediments were determined by wet alkaline digestion. The net sedimentation rates of BSi were defined as the difference between the DSi load from inflowing rivers and the DSi and BSi loads from the outflow of the lake, calculated using DSi concentrations and diatom abundances in the lake from 1980 to 2007 and DSi concentrations of the inflowing rivers during 1994, 2007, and 2009. The gross sedimentation rates of BSi were estimated by multiplying BSi concentrations in lake water by the diatom sinking rate reported by previous studies.

Results and discussion

Budgetary calculations based on the database showed that 60?C70?% of DSi inputs from the inflowing rivers during the 27?years could ultimately be accumulated as diatom frustules in bottom sediments in the lake. The sediment analysis revealed that the amount of BSi accumulated in the lake from 1980 to 2007 was 2.0?C2.6?×?10¹¹?g, similar to the amount based on the database of 1.3?C2.4?×?10¹¹?g. Although the gross sedimentation rates of BSi likely increased, the net sedimentation rates of BSi decreased significantly from 6?C10?×?10⁹?g?year^?1 in the 1980s to 2?C6?×?10⁹?g?year^?1 in the 2000s, suggesting a fast recycling of BSi in recent years caused by an increase in sediment resuspension and regeneration.

Conclusions

The sediment core information and the water quality database can be used for calculating the long-term silicon budgets in Lake Kasumigaura. An increase in the DSi release rates was identified, which is consistent with recent sediment resuspension. Comparing the sediment core information with the database suggests the long-term dissolution of sediment BSi; however, analysis of the BSi content in sediment cores representing a much longer time period is needed to confirm this.     

Seiche-Induced Resuspension in Lake Kinneret: A Fluorescent Tracer Experiment

In warm-monomictic Lake Kinneret, wind-induced internal waves with amplitudes of up to 10 meters are common during April – October. This study was aimed to follow the horizontal and vertical transport of resuspended particles due to internal wave activity using fluorescently-dyed sediment particles (lake sediments and lyophilized algal cells) as tracers. Color-coded (5 colors) tracers were deployed along a transact perpendicular to the shore, and their dispersion was followed by recovery of labeled particles in sediment traps and in bottom sediment samples using epifluorescence microscopy. Wind-induced internal seiches as the driving force for resuspension were followed using a thermistor chain and a current velocity profiler. Examination of sediment trap and bottom sediment samples indicated particle transport from the hypolimnion to the epilimnion that could he linked to the seiche activity. Horizontal transport of particles was most distinct for littoral sediments whereby particles placed at 5 m depth were exposed to a strong long shore transport.     

Phosphorus Fractionation and Short-term Mobility in the Surface Sediment of a Polymictic Shallow Lake Treated with a Low Dose of Alum (Courtille Lake,France)

Lake Courtille was a polymictic eutrophic lake prone to large pH variations and sediment resuspension. Short term P release (96 hr) under laboratory resuspension conditions for two sedimentsample types, surface sediments which represent sediment accumulated over several years and trap sediments which representcurrent year sediment, was studied. The experiments were carriedout in oxic conditions at different pH values. According to phosphorus fractionation, Fe-bound-P, Al-bound-P and Organic-bound-P comprised the largest phosphorus pool (80% of Total Phosphorus). Phosphorus release was from the Fe-P, Al-P and organic fractions. These represent 35% of the total phosphorus content at pH 10. At circumneutral pH, in oxic conditions, a lower quantity of P was released (roughly 4% of total P sediment content) than at pH 10. The organic matter mineralization occurring at the end of summer can also influenceP release as illustrated by the difference in total phosphoruscontent between sediment samples of 2000 and of the last five years. This type of P release was observed in Lake Courtille. High soluble reactive phosphorus content was measured in the water column at the end of summer. Aluminium treatment was thus not efficient in preventing P release. Moreover, a higher alum dose was needed to reduce P content in the water column in order to decrease primary productivity and subsequent organic matter sedimentation.     

Origin and Transport of Aeolian Sediment from New Clearcuts into Boreal Lakes,Northwestern Ontario,Canada

Movement of aeolian (wind-blown) inorganic sediment was indexed in and around new riparian and upland clearcuts in northwestern Ontario, Canada with bucket-style terrestrial litterfall traps. Aeolian sediment originated primarily from clearcuts, roads, and skid trails, where soil disturbance was high and forest hitterfall was low. Relatively small amounts of aeolian sediment were recovered from riparian buffer strips and upland forest. Aeolian sediment was observed to reach lakes adjacent to the clearcuts and may be responsible for elevated levels of littoral sedimentation measured in one study lake. However, the amounts of sediment deposition observed are not likely to cause important changes in water quality or benthic habitat for algae, invertebrates, or fish in these lakes.     

Methylmercury distribution and partitioning in stratified Finnish forest lakes

TotHg and MeHg were determined in water profiles, sedimenting seston and surface sediments of four stratified forest lake systems in Finland. The radiochemical method was applied to the methylation assays performedin situ. In the anoxic layers the MeHg concentrations were generally higher than in the epilimnia. Thein situ MeHg production also increased in the hypolimnia, but MeHg increase in water was more closely associated to particles thanin situ MeHg production. Methylmercury partitioning between particles and dissolved (0.2 μm) phase was similar in sediment traps and hypolimnetic water, the trap concentrations being one order of magnitude higher. Dissolved MeHg in the hypolimnia exceeded that in sediment surface. Particulate MeHg concentrations in the traps were higher than at the sediment surface. Methylmercury transport through sedimentation and MeHg production in hypolimnetic water are suggested as primary sources of increased MeHg in hypolimnia of the lakes studied.     

Pollutant Exchange at the Water/Sediment Interface in the Venice Canals

The space-time distribution of some pollutants (Cu, Ph, Zn, Cd, Fe, Mn, V, Ni, Cr) in the sludge of the canals of Venice was studied. The contamination levels were comparable to, or higher, than those measured in the most polluted sediments of the Lagoon of Venice Sediments were collected by two different sampling techniques I ) collection of sediment cores (upper 5 cm) by a syringe-type corer, 2) collection by traps, placed on the bottom of the canal Traps pennitted the sampling of sediments essentially resuspended by overlying water turbulence This sediment fraction is subjected to variations of its physicochemical parameters (principally change of redox conditions) and therefore to pollutant exchange at the water/sediment interface The metals principally exchanged during sediment resuspension were Cd, Pb, Zn and Cu These metals have principally an anthropogenic origin and are bound to the most labile geochemical phases of the sediment (such as sulphides), which can be oxidised during sediment resuspension, releasing metals into the water Fe, Cr and Ni were only partially exchanged, while Mn and V were generally not exchanged, a significant fraction of these metals is of natural origin and is bound to the most refractory phases of the sediment.     

Dry Weight Deposition in Polluted Onondaga Lake,New York,U.S.A.

Short and long-term trends in dry weight deposition rates are documented for polluted Onondaga Lake, NY, based on analyses of sediment trap collections made below the epilimnion at a single deep-water location in ten years over the 1980–1992 period using cylindrical traps. Additionally, comparisons of dry weight rates obtained with two different diameter (4.0 and 7.6 cm) traps of the same aspect ratio (6), at four different depths below the epilimnion, and from the lake's two basins, in 1993, are presented to establish the representativeness of the long-term data. The near equivalence of fluxes determined with the different size traps and cumulative deposition rates measured over the range of deployment depths, and the minor differences in flux observed for the two basins, supports the representativeness of long-term data in quantifying deposition rates for the pelagic zone of the lake. Short-term variations in downward flux have been common in the lake over the period of monitoring. The summer-average dry weight deposition rate decreased systematically (by about 45%) following the closure (in 1986) of a soda ash facility that caused enhanced rates of calcium carbonate deposition; from an average of 23.2 to 12.8 g m-² d-¹. These dry weight deposition rates are high compared to values reported in the literature for other lakes, and are responsible for the lake's high rate of net sedimentation.     

全新世时期古水土流失与古人类活动相互影响分析

对全新世古水土流失与古人类活动相互影响的研究方法进行了讨论和实践。借鉴第四纪环境学的研究手段 ,利用古人类活动区域周围的河流、湖泊沉积物及坡脚堆积物 ,可以获得古水土流失的信息 :在一定条件下 ,沉积物中孢粉数量的减少或草本植被的相对增加、磁化率的增大、迁移能力较弱的元素及化合物在沉积物中的富集 ,或沉积物分选差、粒度增大等 ,都可能指示着古水土流失的发生。通过对辽西大凌河剖面的孢粉分析 ,指出红山文化遗址堆积较薄且分布稀疏 ,可能与古水土流失加剧有关     

Use of landslide-dammed lake deposits and pollen tracing techniques to investigate the erosional response of a small drainage basin in the Loess Plateau, China, to land use change during the late 16th century

A major landslide that occurred in 1569 in the Huangtuwa gully catchment within the Rolling Loess Plateau region of China, resulted in the creation of a landslide-dammed lake at the outlet of the small 0.1 km² tributary valley of the Houxiaotan Gully. All the sediment transported to the outlet of this catchment was deposited in the lake. After about 30 years the dam failed and the lake deposits were dissected as the stream cut down to its former base level. Substantial remnants of the sediment deposits that accumulated over the ca. 30 year period are, however, preserved as terraces near the outlet of the catchment and a vertical section through these sediment deposits was investigated using stratigraphic and pollen tracing techniques. Individual flood couplets could be clearly distinguished and these permitted the establishment of a chronology for the sediment deposits and the estimation of the sediment yields associated with individual events and individual years. Pollen analysis undertaken on samples collected from the individual flood couplets also provided information on the variation of the pollen content of the sediment and the proportion of Artemisia pollen during the period represented by the deposits. Interpretation of the information assembled from the sediment section has made it possible to reconstruct the erosional history of the Houxiaotan catchment during the 31 year period following the landslide. The average sediment yield of the catchment in the late 16th century was very similar to its present-day sediment yield. The sediment yield from the catchment and the relative contribution of the inter-gully areas, as compared to the gully system, declined immediately after the landslide as a result of abandonment of the cultivated land within the catchment. The restoration of cultivation in the catchment after about 17 years resulted in an increase in sediment yield from ca. 9000 t km^− 2 yr^− 1 to ca. 30,000 t km^− 2 yr^− 1 and a substantial increase in the proportion of sediment contributed by the cultivated inter-gully areas. Scope exists to apply a similar approach to the sediment deposits that accumulated in other former landslide-dammed lakes within the Rolling Loess Plateau region of China, in order to develop an improved understanding of the erosion history of the region.     

Probing Particle Processes in Lake Michigan Using Sediment Traps

Sediment trap sampling at an offshore site in southern Lake Michigan has continued for an 18 year period with a sampling frequency ranging from weekly to semi-annually. During the 6 month unstratified period sediment trap mass and tracer profiles are nearly constant and they have been used to describe the extent of sediment resuspension. After stratification, mass flux rapidly declines and particle tracers are removed from the epilimnion at the rate of 0.5–1 m.d¹. Exponential profiles of mass flux clearly show the persistence of a benthic nepheloid layer. High frequency sampling with near-bottom sequencing traps show order of magnitude ranges in mass flux over a few day period.     

2000-year environmental history of a karstic lake in the Mediterranean Pre-Pyrenees: the Estanya lakes (Spain)

The sediment record of the Estanya lakes (Pre-Pyrenees, Spain) indicates that this region was intensely affected by land use during the Middle and Modern ages, which contrasts with the present-day poor socioeconomic development of the region. The correlation between sediment and biotic data and well-known historical events suggests a reliable history of environmental changes in this area during the last 2000 years. Changes in lake level were mainly controlled by climatic factors, whereas properties such as lithology, organic carbon, ostracods and pollen content are mainly associated with lake management and land use. Major sedimentological changes resulted from the use of the lake for hemp retting at the start of the XIVth century. Subsequent depopulation of the area in the XXth century led to the progressive recovery of the lacustrine ecosystem.     

Use of landslide-dammed lake deposits and pollen tracing techniques to investigate the erosional response of a small drainage basin in the Loess Plateau,China, to land use change during the late 16th century

A major landslide that occurred in 1569 in the Huangtuwa gully catchment within the Rolling Loess Plateau region of China, resulted in the creation of a landslide-dammed lake at the outlet of the small 0.1 km² tributary valley of the Houxiaotan Gully. All the sediment transported to the outlet of this catchment was deposited in the lake. After about 30 years the dam failed and the lake deposits were dissected as the stream cut down to its former base level. Substantial remnants of the sediment deposits that accumulated over the ca. 30 year period are, however, preserved as terraces near the outlet of the catchment and a vertical section through these sediment deposits was investigated using stratigraphic and pollen tracing techniques. Individual flood couplets could be clearly distinguished and these permitted the establishment of a chronology for the sediment deposits and the estimation of the sediment yields associated with individual events and individual years. Pollen analysis undertaken on samples collected from the individual flood couplets also provided information on the variation of the pollen content of the sediment and the proportion of Artemisia pollen during the period represented by the deposits. Interpretation of the information assembled from the sediment section has made it possible to reconstruct the erosional history of the Houxiaotan catchment during the 31 year period following the landslide. The average sediment yield of the catchment in the late 16th century was very similar to its present-day sediment yield. The sediment yield from the catchment and the relative contribution of the inter-gully areas, as compared to the gully system, declined immediately after the landslide as a result of abandonment of the cultivated land within the catchment. The restoration of cultivation in the catchment after about 17 years resulted in an increase in sediment yield from ca. 9000 t km^− 2 yr^− 1 to ca. 30,000 t km^− 2 yr^− 1 and a substantial increase in the proportion of sediment contributed by the cultivated inter-gully areas. Scope exists to apply a similar approach to the sediment deposits that accumulated in other former landslide-dammed lakes within the Rolling Loess Plateau region of China, in order to develop an improved understanding of the erosion history of the region.     

A Dynamic Mass-balance Model for Phosphorus in Lakes with a Focus on Criteria for Applicability and Boundary Conditions

This paper presents an improved version of a general, process-based mass-balance model (LakeMab/LEEDS) for phosphorus in entire lakes (the ecosystem scale). The focus in this work is set on the boundary conditions, i.e., the domain of the model, and critical tests to reveal those boundary conditions using data from a wide limnological range. The basic structure of the model, and many key equations have been presented and motivated before, but this work presents several new developments. The LakeMab-model is based on ordinary differential equations regulating inflow, outflow and internal fluxes and the temporal resolution is one month to reflect seasonal variations. The model consists of four compartments: surface water, deep water, sediment on accumulation areas and sediment on areas of erosion and transportation. The separation between the surface-water layer and the deep-water layer is not done from water temperature data, but from sedimentological criteria (from the theoretical wave base, which regulates where wind/wave-induced resuspension of fine sediments occurs). There are algorithms for processes regulating internal fluxes and internal loading, e.g., sedimentation, resuspension, diffusion, mixing and burial. Critical model tests were made using data from 41 lakes of very different character and the results show that the model could predict mean monthly TP-concentrations in water very well (generally within the uncertainty bands given by the empirical data). The model is even easier to apply than the well-known OECD and Vollenweider models due to more easily accessed driving variables.     

1951—2014年洞庭湖水沙阶段性演变特征及驱动因素分析

基于洞庭湖1951-2014年实测径流量和输沙量数据,采用Mann-Kendall检验、滑动t检验和有序聚类分析等多种统计方法分析洞庭湖水沙演变特征,并以回归曲线拟合及归-化曲线对降水量、径流量和输沙量之间的相互关系进行分析,以期确定影响洞庭湖水沙变化的驱动因素.结果表明:(1)入出湖径流量、输沙量的突变年份有差异,入湖径流量、出湖径流量为1971年,入湖输沙量为1985年,出湖输沙量为1970年;(2)洞庭湖入湖径流量具有以分段衰减为特征的演变过程,1972-1977年表现最明显;(3)入湖输沙量呈现分段衰减的阶段性演变特征,2004-2014年间多年平均输沙量减幅最大,衰减率为75.34％;(4)入湖、出湖径流量在1951-1971年和1978-1985年主要受降水量变化驱动,1972-1977年和1986-2014年主要受沙滩子自然裁弯、葛洲坝水电站、五强溪水库、三峡工程等人类活动影响;(5)1951-1971年入湖径流量的多寡对入湖输沙量产生一定影响,1972-2014年影响输沙量减少的主要因素是水利枢纽工程.因此,洞庭湖流域水沙过程的不同阶段其主导驱动因素有所差异.其中,入湖径流1972-1977,20042014年2个阶段及出湖径流1976-1985,2004-2014年2个阶段以水利枢纽工程驱动为主,其余2个以降水量变化驱动为主.     

Factors controlling sediment trapping in two freshwater tidal wetlands in the Biesbosch area,The Netherlands

Purpose

A thorough understanding of mechanisms controlling sedimentation and erosion is vital for a proper assessment of the effectiveness of delta restoration. Only few field-based studies have been undertaken in freshwater tidal wetlands. Furthermore, studies that measured sediment deposition in newly created wetlands are also sparse. This paper aims to identify the factors controlling the sediment trapping of two newly created freshwater tidal wetlands.

Materials and methods

Two recently re-opened polder areas in the Biesbosch, The Netherlands are used as study area. Field measurements of water levels, flow velocities, and turbidity at both the in- and outlet of the areas were carried out to determine the sediment budgets and trapping efficiencies under varying conditions of river discharge, tide, and wind in the period 2014–2016.

Results and discussion

Short-term sediment fluxes of the two study areas varied due to river discharge, tide, and wind. A positive sediment budget and trapping efficiency was found for the first study area, which has a continuing supply of river water and sediment. Sediment was lost from the second study area which lies further from the river and had a lower sediment supply. The daily sediment budget is positively related to upstream river discharge, and in general, export takes place during ebb and import during flood. However, strong wind events overrule this pattern, and trapping efficiencies decrease for increasing wind strengths at mid-range river discharges and for the highest river discharges due to increased shear stress.

Conclusions

Delta restoration, based on sedimentation to compensate for sea-level rise and soil subsidence, could only be effective when there is a sufficient supply of water and sediment. Management to enhance the trapping efficiency of the incoming sediment should focus on directing sufficient river flow into the wetland, ensuring the supply of water and sediment within the system during a tidal cycle, creating sufficiently large residence time of water within the polder areas for sediment settling, and decreasing wave shear stress by the establishment of vegetation or topographic irregularities.

     

Urban Runoff Impacts on Particulate Metal Concentrations in River Seine

Metallic contents (Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn) of suspended solids (SS) were measured in two sites (Suresnes and Chatou) in the river Seine, downstream Paris, during three summer periods. These two sites, which are respectively located downstream and upstream two of the most important combined sewer overflows (CSO's) of the Parisian sewer system (Clichy and La Briche), allow us to assess these CSO immediate impacts. Samples were collected using sediment traps, weekly during dry weather and daily during the week following the major CSO's events. The heavy metal concentrations, relatively large but stable during summer periods, were shown to further increase downstream Paris after main rain discharges occurred. Metal concentrations measured within the Seine SS during rain events, allowed us to establish that the observable immediate impact of Clichy overflows is only 5% of what it could be. The general principle demonstrated through this work is that most SS originating from CSO's rapidly settle once they reach the river. These polluted particles greatly contribute to the SS chronic pollution downstream Paris during dry weather, through a slow resuspension mechanism of the deposited sediments.     

Response of alluvial fan systems to the late Pleistocene to Holocene climatic transition: contrasts between the margins of pluvial Lakes Lahontan and Mojave, Nevada and California, USA

Dated shorelines of late Pleistocene pluvial Lakes Lahontan (Great Basin Desert, northwest Nevada) and Mojave (Mojave Desert, eastern California) provide timelines for the assessment of alluvial fan sedimentation at the lake margins during the late Pleistocene to early Holocene. Two sets of alluvial fan systems have been mapped: the Stillwater fans, feeding Lake Lahontan; and the Zzyzx fans, feeding Lake Mojave. Their contrasting morphologies suggest different responses of the two fan systems to late Pleistocene to early Holocene climatic change. At the time the Stillwater fan systems underwent minimal sedimentation, with the catchment hillslopes apparently stable. The Zzyzx fans experienced major changes in water and sediment supply from the catchment hillslopes. There was a major phase of hillslope debris-flow activity, followed by fanhead trenching and distal fan progradation. Both areas were wetter and colder in the late Pleistocene than they are today, but during the transition to the Holocene the Zzyzx area was more likely to experience intense rains associated with the monsoonal penetration of warm moist tropical air into the Southwest. Vegetation reconstructions for the late Pleistocene to the early Holocene suggest that catchment hillslopes in the Mojave supported a desert shrub vegetation, but those in the Stillwaters supported juniper woodland and grasses at low elevations and pine at higher elevations. Contrasts in hillslope vegetation cover together with storm activity may account for the different responses of the alluvial fans to climatic change during the Pleistocene to Holocene climatic transition. After the falls in lake levels of Lakes Lahontan and Mojave in the early Holocene, both areas underwent aridification, resulting in reductions in hillslope vegetation cover. Increased storm runoff led to fanhead trenching and distal progradation of the alluvial fans. Variations in fan style at that time may relate primarily to base-level conditions resulting from different gradients on the exposed lake shores.     

Relationships Between Suspended and Sediment Organic Matter in a Semi-Enclosed Marine System: The Stagnone Di Marsala Sound (Western Sicily)

To gather information on the interactions between the sediment and suspended organic matter pools in the Stagnone di Marsala, water and sediment samples were collected, on a monthly basis, at I I stations, Water temperature and salinity showed a clear seasonality whilst particulate and sediment organic matter (lid not show any clear seasonal pattern, Relative abundances of suspended and sediment organic matter, on the other hand. appeared to be site-dependent and controlled mainly by the dynamic balance between resuspension and sedimentation, High quantities of both suspended and sediment total organic matter were present. while very low algal biomasses (in terms of chlorophyll-a concentrations) were observed both in the suspended and sediment pools thus showing the oligotrophy of the site, The contribution of phytoplankton and microphytobenthos to the total organic content of suspended and sediment matter was negligible, The low food availability of organic matter in the Stagnone di Marsala Sound may explain the low abundance of Suspension-feeding molluscs. which are substituted by limnovore and dctritivore species.     

Historical and Geographical Trends in Sediment Chronology from Lakes and Marine Sites Along the Norwegian Coast

Sediment cores collected from 12 lakes and eight marine sites along the Norwegian and Svalbard coast as part of a project investigating polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in sediments were dated radiometrically using ²¹⁰Pb, ¹³⁷Cs and ²⁴¹Am fallout radionuclides. In all lake cores, except on Svalbard, the ¹³⁷Cs activity versus depth profile appears to have been significantly modified by post-depositional migration within the sediment column. The relatively low ¹³⁷Cs inventories suggest that these sites were not significantly impacted by fallout from the 1986 Chernobyl accident. All the marine cores have ¹³⁷Cs inventories that are substantially lower than in lake sediments almost certainly due to leaching of ¹³⁷Cs from the marine sediments due to higher solubility in the seawater. In the marine surface sediments, the unsupported ²¹⁰Pb concentrations are up to an order of magnitude lower than in the corresponding lake sediments reflecting the higher (dry mass) sedimentation rate at the marine sites. Five of the cores including marine sites and lakes have unusual high ²¹⁰Pb flux most likely due to sediment focusing. Most of the irregularities in the ²¹⁰Pb records seem to be due to slump events but some patterns are also due to possibly increased accumulation rates. Three of the marine cores show systematic increase in their sedimentation rate from c.1960 towards the present while only one lake shows the same systematic increase.