The influence of Late Quaternary climate-change velocity on species endemism

The effects of climate change on biodiversity should depend in part on climate displacement rate (climate-change velocity) and its interaction with species' capacity to migrate. We estimated Late Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate-change velocity by integrating macroclimatic shifts since the Last Glacial Maximum with topoclimatic gradients. Globally, areas with high velocities were associated with marked absences of small-ranged amphibians, mammals, and birds. The association between endemism and velocity was weakest in the highly vagile birds and strongest in the weakly dispersing amphibians, linking dispersal ability to extinction risk due to climate change. High velocity was also associated with low endemism at regional scales, especially in wet and aseasonal regions. Overall, we show that low-velocity areas are essential refuges for Earth's many small-ranged species.     

Assessing the causes of late Pleistocene extinctions on the continents

One of the great debates about extinction is whether humans or climatic change caused the demise of the Pleistocene megafauna. Evidence from paleontology, climatology, archaeology, and ecology now supports the idea that humans contributed to extinction on some continents, but human hunting was not solely responsible for the pattern of extinction everywhere. Instead, evidence suggests that the intersection of human impacts with pronounced climatic change drove the precise timing and geography of extinction in the Northern Hemisphere. The story from the Southern Hemisphere is still unfolding. New evidence from Australia supports the view that humans helped cause extinctions there, but the correlation with climate is weak or contested. Firmer chronologies, more realistic ecological models, and regional paleoecological insights still are needed to understand details of the worldwide extinction pattern and the population dynamics of the species involved.     

Uniting Two General Patterns in the Distribution of Species

Two patterns in the distribution of species have become firmly but independently established in ecology: the species-area curve, which describes how rapidly the number of species increases with area, and the positive relation between species' geographical distribution and average local abundance. There is no generally agreed explanation of either pattern, but for both the two main hypotheses are essentially the same: divergence of species along the ecological specialist-generalist continuum and colonization- extinction dynamics. A model is described that merges the two mechanisms, predicts both patterns, and thereby shows how the two general, but formerly disconnected, patterns are interrelated.     

Recently formed polyploid plants diversify at lower rates

Polyploidy, the doubling of genomic content, is a widespread feature, especially among plants, yet its macroevolutionary impacts are contentious. Traditionally, polyploidy has been considered an evolutionary dead end, whereas recent genomic studies suggest that polyploidy has been a key driver of macroevolutionary success. We examined the consequences of polyploidy on the time scale of genera across a diverse set of vascular plants, encompassing hundreds of inferred polyploidization events. Likelihood-based analyses indicate that polyploids generally exhibit lower speciation rates and higher extinction rates than diploids, providing the first quantitative corroboration of the dead-end hypothesis. The increased speciation rates of diploids can, in part, be ascribed to their capacity to speciate via polyploidy. Only particularly fit lineages of polyploids may persist to enjoy longer-term evolutionary success.     

Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species' optimum elevations

Uphill shifts of species' distributions in response to historical warming are well documented, which leads to widespread expectations of continued uphill shifts under future warming. Conversely, downhill shifts are often considered anomalous and unrelated to climate change. By comparing the altitudinal distributions of 64 plant species between the 1930s and the present day within California, we show that climate changes have resulted in a significant downward shift in species' optimum elevations. This downhill shift is counter to what would be expected given 20th-century warming but is readily explained by species' niche tracking of regional changes in climatic water balance rather than temperature. Similar downhill shifts can be expected to occur where future climate change scenarios project increases in water availability that outpace evaporative demand.     

Rise and fall of species occupancy in Cenozoic fossil mollusks

In the time between speciation and extinction, a species' ecological and biogeographic footprint-its occupancy-will vary in response to macroecological drivers and historical contingencies. Despite their importance for understanding macroecological processes, general patterns of long-term species occupancy remain largely unknown. We documented the occupancy histories of Cenozoic marine mollusks from New Zealand. For both genera and species, these show a distinct pattern of increase to relatively short-lived peak occupancy at mid-duration, followed by a decline toward extinction. Thus, species at greatest risk for extinction are those that have already been in decline for a substantial period of time. This pattern of protracted rise and fall stands in contrast to that of incumbency, insofar as species show no general tendency to stay near maximal occupancy once established.     

气候变化对野生鸟类的影响研究进展

气候变化特别是全球气温上升对鸟类产生了显著的影响.该领域已经成为生态学、动物学和保护生物学等方面的研究热点之一.我国在气候变化对鸟类的影响方面已经开展了一些研究.根据野生鸟类受气候变化影响的最新研究成果,综述了气候变化对于野生鸟类分布、繁殖生态以及种群动态等方面的影响.结果表明：在气候变化的背景下,鸟类的地理分布范围向高纬度地区移动,繁殖期过程中产卵期提前,并且种群数量逐渐减小.文章还探讨了近几年在该领域内的主要研究方法,大多数以建立模型进行预测评估为主.最后,结合国内外的研究经验和我国鸟类资源的实际情况,建议今后重点关注气候变化对鸟类的影响,并建立长期有效的监测体系.     

Temperature-dependent alterations in host use drive rapid range expansion in a butterfly

Responses of species to climate change are extremely variable, perhaps because of climate-related changes to interactions among species. We show that temperature-related changes in the dependence of the butterfly Aricia agestis on different larval host plants have facilitated rapid range expansion. Historically, the butterfly was largely restricted to a single plant species, Helianthemum nummularium, but recent warmer conditions have enabled the butterfly to increasingly use the more widespread plant species Geranium molle. This has resulted in a substantial increase in available habitat and rapid range expansion by the butterfly (79 kilometers northward in Britain in 20 years). Interactions among species are often seen as constraints on species' responses to climate change, but we show that temperature-dependent changes to interspecific interactions can also facilitate change.     

鄱阳湖砂山地区地表环境结构与其植物多样性的变化

该文对鄱阳湖砂山地区地表环境结构和土地风沙化过程中物种多样性的变化特征进行了分析,依据植物种在各类型风沙化土地出现的频率与不同风沙化阶段各生活型植物种的组成,探讨了风沙化过程中植物种绝灭与定居的特点.物种多样性指数分析表明:风沙化过程是物种多样性衰减的过程,风沙化首先导致特有种的灭绝,其次为稀有种.从植物的生活型来看,多年生草本与乔木类植物受风沙化影响最大,而灌木类植物可存活风沙化过程各个阶段,在风沙化过程中植物种的绝灭速率大于定居速率.要建立有恢复力的砂山景观生态系统,进行生态重组,既需要在砂山地区内也需要在砂山地区外的生态存储,现实情况也需要这种双重存储的生态学准备.      

Abrupt climate change and extinction events in Earth history

Slowly changing boundary conditions can sometimes cause discontinuous responses in climate models and result in relatively rapid transitions between different climate states. Such terrestrially induced abrupt climate transitions could have contributed to biotic crises in earth history. Ancillary events associated with transitions could disperse unstable climate behavior over a longer but still geologically brief interval and account for the stepwise nature of some extinction events. There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of abrupt climate change, and a comparison of paleoclimate data with the Phanerozoic extinction record indicates that climate and biotic transitions often coincide. However, more stratigraphic information is needed to precisely assess phase relations between the two types of transitions. The climate-life comparison also suggests that, if climate change is significantly contributing to biotic turnover, ecosystems may be more sensitive to forcing during the early stages of evolution from an ice-free to a glaciated state. Our analysis suggests that a terrestrially induced climate instability is a viable mechanism for causing rapid environmental change and biotic turnover in earth history, but the relation is not so strong that other sources of variance can be excluded.     

A multispecies overkill simulation of the end-Pleistocene megafaunal mass extinction

A computer simulation of North American end-Pleistocene human and large herbivore population dynamics correctly predicts the extinction or survival of 32 out of 41 prey species. Slow human population growth rates, random hunting, and low maximum hunting effort are assumed; additional parameters are based on published values. Predictions are close to observed values for overall extinction rates, human population densities, game consumption rates, and the temporal overlap of humans and extinct species. Results are robust to variation in unconstrained parameters. This fully mechanistic model accounts for megafaunal extinction without invoking climate change and secondary ecological effects.     

Is a new evolutionary synthesis necessary?

The current (synthetic) theory of evolution has been criticized on the grounds that it implies that macroevolutionary processes (speciation and morphological diversification) are gradual. The extent to which macroevolution is gradual or punctuational remains to be ascertained. Macroevolutionary processes are underlain by microevolutionary phenomena and are compatible with the synthetic theory of evolution. But microevolutionary principles are compatible with both gradualism and punctualism; therefore, logically they entail neither. Thus, macroevolution and microevolution are decoupled in the important sense that macroevolutionary patterns cannot be deduced from microevolutionary principles.     

Grassland ecology in China: perspectives and challenges

During the last few decades, there have been an increasing number of studies on grassland ecology in China, involving the classic ecology concepts or theories and the applicable ecological principles of grassland conservation or management. This paper reviews the main progress in the following aspects. (1) Research on grassland species adaptation and resistance, population dynamics and foraging behavior, and biodiversity and community stability. (2) Research on managed grassland ecosystems (grassland grazing ecology) including grazing effects on grassland ecosystem function and foraging behavior by large herbivores. (3) Global climate change and grassland processes and functioning. (4) Applied research on grassland restoration and ecosystem health assessments such as vegetation restoration, restoration of ecosystem functioning, and assessment methods. There have been significant advances in grassland ecology, including the functions of ecosystem biodiversity, the ecological stoichiometry mechanisms affecting grassland community stability, grazing regulation of plant diversity and nutrient cycling. Grassland ecologists have succeeded in making these advances through observational, experimental and theoretical studies. Nevertheless, there are still significant challenges for the grassland ecology research, including understanding of grassland spatial processes, grassland grazing and multi-functionality, integrated effects of global climate change across grassland areas, as well as the ecological methodology and experimental techniques in grassland ecology.     

全球气候变化与生物多样性

综述了全球气候变化与生我的我样性的研究现状，讨论了全球气候变化引起物种灭绝的内在机制，并从全球变暖与生物多样性丢失间的正反馈因果关系出发，指出保护全球生物多样性对遏制全球变暖的重要价值，同时也指出了生物多样性与全球气候变化研究的方向。     

Evolutionary dynamics of biological games

Darwinian dynamics based on mutation and selection form the core of mathematical models for adaptation and coevolution of biological populations. The evolutionary outcome is often not a fitness-maximizing equilibrium but can include oscillations and chaos. For studying frequency-dependent selection, game-theoretic arguments are more appropriate than optimization algorithms. Replicator and adaptive dynamics describe short- and long-term evolution in phenotype space and have found applications ranging from animal behavior and ecology to speciation, macroevolution, and human language. Evolutionary game theory is an essential component of a mathematical and computational approach to biology.     

The aftermath of megafaunal extinction: ecosystem transformation in Pleistocene Australia

Giant vertebrates dominated many Pleistocene ecosystems. Many were herbivores, and their sudden extinction in prehistory could have had large ecological impacts. We used a high-resolution 130,000-year environmental record to help resolve the cause and reconstruct the ecological consequences of extinction of Australia's megafauna. Our results suggest that human arrival rather than climate caused megafaunal extinction, which then triggered replacement of mixed rainforest by sclerophyll vegetation through a combination of direct effects on vegetation of relaxed herbivore pressure and increased fire in the landscape. This ecosystem shift was as large as any effect of climate change over the last glacial cycle, and indicates the magnitude of changes that may have followed megafaunal extinction elsewhere in the world.     

Terminal cretaceous extinction scenario for a catastrophe

All the biotic changes that occurred at the end of Cretaceous time, including the extinction of the dinosaurs, may be the result of a single terrestrial catastrophe. The Arctic spillover model, first proposed to explain the marine extinctions, would have caused a rapid and intense change in the earth's climate including a lowering of temperature and of precipitation. This change in climate may have triggered a series of ecological disasters that included the radical change in the distribution of vegetation on the earth as well as the extinction of the dinosaurs.     

Heritability at the species level: analysis of geographic ranges of cretaceous mollusks

Geographic range has been regarded as a property of species rather than of individuals and thus as a potential factor in macroevolutionary processes. Species durations in Late Cretaceous mollusks exhibit statistically significant positive relationships with geographic range, and the attainment of a typical frequency distribution of geographic ranges in the cohort of species that originated just before the end-Cretaceous extinction indicates that species duration is the dependent variable. The strong relation between geographic ranges in pairs of closely related species indicates that the trait is, in effect, heritable at the species level. The significant heritabilities strengthen claims for processes of evolution by species-level selection, and for differential survivorship of organismic-level traits owing to extinction and origination processes operating at higher levels.     

Climate-related, long-term faunal changes in a california rocky intertidal community

Changes in the invertebrate fauna of a California rocky intertidal community between the period 1931 to 1933 and the period 1993 to 1994 indicate that species' ranges shifted northward, consistent with predictions of change associated with climate warming. Of 45 invertebrate species, the abundances of eight of nine southern species increased and the abundances of five of eight northern species decreased. No trend was evident for cosmopolitan species. Annual mean shoreline ocean temperatures at the site increased by 0.75 degrees C during the past 60 years, and mean summer maximum temperatures from 1983 to 1993 were 2.2 degrees C warmer than for the period 1921 to 1931.     

艾比湖流域生态系统NPP 对气候 变化及景观动态的响应

分析气候变化与人为扰动对生态系统NPP 的影响、以及未来情景模式下NPP 的响应机制。在景观动态 模拟模型CA-Markov 模型耦合未来A1B 情景模式下的区域气候模式数据的基础上、建立生态系统NPP 对气候变化 和景观动态响应模型、实现了人类活动与气候变化对生态系统NPP 的影响定量分析。艾比湖流域2005要2020 年生 态系统NPP 增长了223.27 GgC、其中由人类活动直接导致的NPP 增加为141.01 GgC、气候变化的贡献为82.26 GgC。 近期内人类活动的直接影响仍是生态系统NPP 变化的主要因素、气候变化的影响虽然较小、但呈现逐年增长的趋 势。