Forecasting the spatial dynamics of gypsy moth outbreaks using cellular transition models

A series of cellular transition probability models that predict the spatial dynamics of gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) defoliation were developed. The models consisted of four classes: Simple Markov chains, Rook's and Queen's move neighborhood models, and distance weighted neighborhood models. Historical maps of gypsy moth defoliation across Massachusetts from 1961 to 1991 were digitized into a binary raster matrix and used to estimate transition probabilities. Results indicated that the distance weighted neighborhood model performed better then the other neighborhood models and the simple Markov chain. Incorporation of interpolated counts of overwintering egg mass counts taken throughout the state and incorporation of historical defoliation frequencies increased the performance of the transition models.     

The cost of gypsy moth sex in the city

Since its introduction in the 1860s, gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), has periodically defoliated large swaths of forest in the eastern United States. Prior research has suggested that the greatest costs and losses from these outbreaks accrue in residential areas, but these impacts have not been well quantified. We addressed this lacuna with a case study of Baltimore City. Using two urban tree inventories, we estimated potential costs and losses from a range of gypsy moth outbreak scenarios under different environmental and management conditions. We combined outbreak scenarios with urban forest data to model defoliation and mortality and based the costs and losses on the distribution of tree species in different size classes and land uses throughout Baltimore City. In each outbreak, we estimated the costs of public and private suppression, tree removal and replacement, and human medical treatment, as well as the losses associated with reduced pollution uptake, increased carbon emissions and foregone sequestration. Of the approximately 2.3 M trees in Baltimore City, a majority of the basal area was primary or secondary host for gypsy moth. Under the low outbreak scenario, with federal and state suppression efforts, total costs and losses were $5.540 M, much less than the $63.666 M estimated for the high outbreak scenario, in which the local public and private sectors were responsible for substantially greater tree removal and replacement costs. The framework that we created can be used to estimate the impacts of other non-native pests in urban environments.     

Identifying significant scale-specific spatial boundaries using wavelets and null models: spruce budworm defoliation in Ontario,Canada as a case study

We combine wavelet analysis and multiple null models to identify significant spatial scales of pattern and spatial boundaries in historical spruce budworm defoliation in Ontario, Canada. Previous analyses of budworm defoliation in Ontario over the last two outbreaks have suggested three distinct zones of defoliation. We asked the following three questions: (1) is there statistical support for the existence of these three zones? (2) Are the locations of these boundaries consistent between outbreak periods? And (3) how does boundary identification depend on the spatial null model used? Defoliation data for the two outbreak periods (1941–1965 and 1966–2001), and the combined period (1941–2001) were analyzed using a 1D continuous wavelet transform. Boundaries were identified through comparison of wavelet power spectra of each outbreak period to reference distributions based on three different spatial null models: (1) a complete spatial randomness model, (2) an autoregressive model, and (3) a Gaussian random field model. The Gaussian random field model identified coarser scales of pattern than the autoregressive model. Locally, the Gaussian random field model found significant boundaries similar to those previously described, whereas the autoregressive model only did so for the first outbreak. These results indicate that the coarse scale spatial factors that influenced defoliation were more consistent between outbreaks relative to fine scale factors, and that previously described boundaries were strongly driven by the first outbreak. Wavelet analysis combined with spatial null models provides a powerful tool for identifying non-arbitrary scales of structure and significant spatial boundaries in non-stationary ecological data.     

Influence of environmental factors and spatio-temporal covariates during the initial development of a spruce budworm outbreak

Recurrent and synchronous spruce budworm (SBW) outbreaks have important impacts in boreal and sub-boreal forest ecosystems of North America. This study examines the early phase of an outbreak that was developing across a 268,000 km² area over a period of 9 years (2003–2011). The territory was subdivided in 225 km² cells, and the relative influence of forest composition, elevation, forest age, average degree-days and soil drainage were examined during three development phases of the outbreak: initial epicenter location, relatively long-distance spread (cell-to-cell expansion), and expansion inside individual cells (within-cell expansion). The results indicate that elevation is the most determinant variable for initial epicenter location. Other variables that were identified as important for outbreak development by previous studies, such as forest composition and average degree-days, were not so important during this phase. However, forest composition and average degree-days were important factors during the cell-to-cell and within-cell expansion phases. Separating outbreak development in distinct phases also allowed to integrate phase-specific spatial and temporal covariates that were highly significant in the models, such as distance from previous year defoliations during the cell-to-cell expansion phase, and the proportion of defoliated stands during the preceding year for the within-cell expansion phase. Overall, this study provides limited evidence that patterns of SBW outbreak expansion could be altered by reducing host tree species abundance in the forest [mainly balsam fir (Abies balsamea) in this region]. More generally, this study suggests that the influence of environmental variables on SBW outbreak development is clearly phase-dependent, and that this landscape-level, process-based approach could be useful to forecast insect outbreak development in forest ecosystems.     

Assessing the effects of subtropical forest fragmentation on leaf nitrogen distribution using remote sensing data

Subtropical forest loss resulting from conversion of forest to other land-cover types such as grassland, secondary forest, subsistence crop farms and small forest patches affects leaf nitrogen (N) stocks in the landscape. This study explores the utility of new remote sensing tools to model the spatial distribution of leaf N concentration in a forested landscape undergoing deforestation in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Leaf N was mapped using models developed from RapidEye imagery; a relatively new space-borne multispectral sensor. RapidEye consists of five spectral bands in the visible to near infra-red (NIR) and has a spatial resolution of 5 m. MERIS terrestrial chlorophyll index derived from the RapidEye explained 50 % of the variance in leaf N across different land-cover types with a model standard error of prediction of 29 % (i.e. of the observed mean leaf N) when assessed on an independent test data. The results showed that indigenous forest fragmentation leads to significant losses in leaf N as most of the land-cover types (e.g. grasslands and subsistence farmlands) resulting from forest degradation showed lower leaf N when compared to the original indigenous forest. Further analysis of the spatial variation of leaf N revealed an autocorrelation distance of about 50 m for leaf N in the fragmented landscape, a scale corresponding to the average dimension of subsistence fields (2,781 m²) in the region. The availability of new multispectral sensors such as RapidEye thus, moves remote sensing closer to widespread monitoring of the effect of tropical forest degradation on leaf N distribution.     

Spatial scale and pattern dependences of aboveground biomass estimation from satellite images: a case study of the Sierra National Forest,California

Context

Spatial scale and pattern play important roles in forest aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation in remote sensing. Changes in the accuracy of satellite images-estimated forest AGBs against spatial scales and pixel distribution patterns has not been evaluated, because it requires ground-truth AGBs of fine resolution over a large extent, and such data are difficult to obtain using traditional ground surveying methods.

Objectives

We intend to quantify the accuracy of AGB estimation from satellite images on changing spatial scales and varying pixel distribution patterns, in a typical mixed coniferous forest in Sierra Nevada mountains, California.

Methods

A forest AGB map of a 143 km² area was created using small-footprint light detection and ranging. Landsat Thematic Mapper images were chosen as typical examples of satellite images, and resampled to successively coarser resolutions. At each spatial scale, pixels forming random, uniform, and clustered spatial patterns were then sampled. The accuracies of the AGB estimation based on Landsat images associated with varying spatial scales and patterns were finally quantified.

Results

The changes in the accuracy of AGB estimation from Landsat images are not monotonic, but increase up to 60–90 m in spatial scale, and then decrease. Random and uniform spatial patterns of pixel distributions yield better accuracy for AGB estimation than clustered spatial patterns. The corrected NDVI (NDVIc) was the best predictor of AGB estimation.

Conclusions

A spatial scale of 60–90 m is recommended for forest AGB estimation at the Sierra Nevada mountains using Landsat images and those with similar spectral resolutions.

     

Tropical forest regeneration following land abandonment is driven by primary rainforest distribution in an old pastoral region

Context

Tropical forest regeneration is increasingly prominent as agro-pastoral lands are abandoned. Regeneration is characterised as favouring ‘marginal’ lands; however, observations of its drivers are often coarse or simple, leaving doubt as to spatial dynamics and causation.

Objectives

We quantified the spatial dynamics of forest regeneration relative to marginality and remnant forest cover in a 3000 km² pastoral region in northern tropical Australia.

Methods

Classification and regression trees related the extent and distribution of regeneration to soil agricultural potential, land-cover history, terrain slope, distance to primary forest, and primary forest fragment size, as defined by aerial photography.

Results

Secondary forest extent and distribution overwhelmingly reflect the proximity and size of primary forest fragments. Some 85 % of secondary forest area occurs <1 km of primary forest, and 86 % of secondary forest patches >50 ha are <400 m from primary forest and coincident with historic primary forest fragments. Where primary forest fragments are >8.5 ha, secondary forest area declines less rapidly with increasing distance from primary forest up to 1.5 km. Marginality inferred by soil potential and slope had no bearing on regeneration, except at the coarsest of spatial scales where regeneration is a proxy for primary forest cover.

Conclusion

Findings underline the need to conserve even modest rainforest patches as propagule reservoirs enabling regeneration. Marginality per se may have a limited role in regeneration. As most secondary forest was an extension of primary forest, its unique conservation value relative to that of primary forest may likewise merit reconsideration.

     

Ecosystem services of regulation and support in Amazonian pioneer fronts: searching for landscape drivers

Landscape dynamics result from forestry and farming practices, both of which are expected to have diverse impacts on ecosystem services (ES). In this study, we investigated this general statement for regulating and supporting services via an assessment of ecosystem functions: climate regulation via carbon sequestration in soil and plant biomass, water cycle and soil erosion regulation via water infiltration in soil, and support for primary production via soil chemical quality and water storage. We tested the hypothesis that patterns of land-cover composition and structure significantly alter ES metrics at two different scales. We surveyed 54 farms in two Amazonian regions of Brazil and Colombia and assessed land-cover composition and structure from remote sensing data (farm scale) from 1990 to 2007. Simple and well-established methods were used to characterize soil and vegetation from five points in each farm (plot scale). Most ES metrics were significantly correlated with land-use (plot scale) and land-cover (farm scale) classifications; however, spatial variability in inherent soil properties, alone or in interaction with land-use or land-cover changes, contributed greatly to variability in ES metrics. Carbon stock in above-ground plant biomass and water infiltration rate decreased from forest to pasture land covers, whereas soil chemical quality and plant-available water storage capacity increased. Land-cover classifications based on structure metrics explained significantly less ES metric variation than those based on composition metrics. Land-cover composition dynamics explained 45 % (P < 0.001) of ES metric variance, 15 % by itself and 30 % in interaction with inherent soil properties. This study describes how ES evolve with landscape changes, specifying the contribution of spatial variability in the physical environment and highlighting trade-offs and synergies among ES.     

A multi-scale analysis of western spruce budworm outbreak dynamics

Context

Forest insect outbreaks are influenced by ecological processes operating at multiple spatial scales, including host-insect interactions within stands and across landscapes that are modified by regional-scale variations in climate. These drivers of outbreak dynamics are not well understood for the western spruce budworm, a defoliator that is native to forests of western North America.

Objectives

Our aim was to assess how processes across multiple spatial scales drive western spruce budworm outbreak dynamics. Our objective was to assess the relative importance and influence of a set of factors covering the stand, landscape, and regional scales for explaining spatiotemporal outbreak patterns in British Columbia, Canada.

Methods

We used generalized linear mixed effect models within a multi-model interference framework to relate annual budworm infestation mapped from Landsat time series (1996–2012) to sets of stand-, landscape-, and regional-scale factors derived from forest inventory data, GIS analyses, and climate models.

Results

Outbreak patterns were explained well by our model (R ² = 93%). The most important predictors of infestation probability were the proximity to infestations in the previous year, landscape-scale host abundance, and dry autumn conditions. While stand characteristics were overall less important predictors, we did find infestations were more likely amongst pure Douglas-fir stands with low site indices and high crown closure.

Conclusions

Our findings add to growing empirical evidence that insect outbreak dynamics are driven by multi-scaled processes. Forest management planning to mitigate the impacts of budworm outbreaks should thus consider landscape- and regional-scale factors in addition to stand-scale factors.

     

Topography-mediated controls on local vegetation phenology estimated from MODIS vegetation index

Forest canopy phenology is an important constraint on annual water and carbon budgets, and responds to regional interannual climate variation. In steep terrain, there are complex spatial variations in phenology due to topographic influences on microclimate, community composition, and available soil moisture. In this study, we investigate spatial patterns of phenology in humid temperate forest as a function of topography. Moderate-resolution imaging spectro-radiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices are used to derive local patterns of topography-mediated vegetation phenology using a simple post-processing analysis and a non-linear model fitting. Elevation has the most explanatory power for all phenological variables with a strong linear relationship with mid-day of greenup period, following temperatures lapse rates. However, all other phenological variables show quadratic associations with elevation, reflecting an interaction between topoclimatic patterns of temperature and water availability. Radiation proxies also have significant explanatory power for all phenological variables. Though hillslope position cannot be adequately resolved at the MODIS spatial resolution (250 m) to discern impacts of local drainage conditions, extended periods of greenup/senescence are found to occur in wet years. These findings are strongly supported by previous field measurements at different topographic positions within the study area. The capability of detecting topography-mediated local phenology offers the potential to detect vegetation responses to climate change in mountainous terrain. In addition, the large, local variability of meteorological and edaphic conditions in steep terrain provides a unique opportunity to develop an understanding of canopy response to the interaction of climate and landscape conditions.     

Spatial prediction of caterpillar (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Ormiscodes</Emphasis>) defoliation in Patagonian <Emphasis Type="Italic">Nothofagus</Emphasis> forests

In the temperate forests of the southern Andes, southern beech species (Nothofagus), the dominant tree species of the region, experience severe defoliation caused by caterpillars of the Ormiscodes genus (Lepidoptera: Saturniidae). Despite the recent increase in defoliation frequency in some areas, there is no quantitative information on the spatial extent and dynamics of these outbreaks. This study examines the spatial patterns of O. amphimone outbreaks in relation to landscape heterogeneity. We mapped defoliation events caused by O. amphimone in northern (ca. 40–41°S) and southern Patagonian (ca. 49°S) Nothofagus forests from Landsat imagery and analyzed their spatial associations with vegetation cover type, topography (elevation, slope angle, aspect) and mean annual precipitation using overlay analyses. We used these data and relationships to develop a logistic regression model in order to generate maps of predicted susceptibility to defoliation by O. amphimone for each study area. Forests of N. pumilio are typically more susceptible to O. amphimone outbreaks than lower elevation forests of other Nothofagus species (N. dombeyi and N. antarctica). Stands located at intermediate elevations and on gentle slopes (<15°) are also more susceptible to defoliation than higher and lower elevation stands located on high angle slopes. Stands in areas with intermediate to high precipitation, relative to the distribution of Nothofagus along the precipitation gradient, are more susceptible to O. amphimone attack than are drier areas. Our study represents the first mapping and spatial analysis of insect defoliator outbreaks in Nothofagus forests in South America.     

Spatial scaling of core and dominant forest cover in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois River floodplains, USA

Different organisms respond to spatial structure in different terms and across different spatial scales. As a consequence, efforts to reverse habitat loss and fragmentation through strategic habitat restoration ought to account for the different habitat density and scale requirements of various taxonomic groups. Here, we estimated the local density of floodplain forest surrounding each of ~20 million 10-m forested pixels of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois River floodplains by using moving windows of multiple sizes (1?C100 ha). We further identified forest pixels that met two local density thresholds: ??core?? forest pixels were nested in a 100% (unfragmented) forested window and ??dominant?? forest pixels were those nested in a >60% forested window. Finally, we fit two scaling functions to declines in the proportion of forest cover meeting these criteria with increasing window length for 107 management-relevant focal areas: a power function (i.e. self-similar, fractal-like scaling) and an exponential decay function (fractal dimension depends on scale). The exponential decay function consistently explained more variation in changes to the proportion of forest meeting both the ??core?? and ??dominant?? criteria with increasing window length than did the power function, suggesting that elevation, soil type, hydrology, and human land use constrain these forest types to a limited range of scales. To examine these scales, we transformed the decay constants to measures of the distance at which the probability of forest meeting the ??core?? and ??dominant?? criteria was cut in half (S _1/2, m). S _1/2 for core forest was typically between ~55 and ~95 m depending on location along the river, indicating that core forest cover is restricted to extremely fine scales. In contrast, half of all dominant forest cover was lost at scales that were typically between ~525 and 750 m, but S _1/2 was as long as 1,800 m. S _1/2 is a simple measure that (1) condenses information derived from multi-scale analyses, (2) allows for comparisons of the amount of forest habitat available to species with different habitat density and scale requirements, and (3) can be used as an index of the spatial continuity of habitat types that do not scale fractally.     

Living on the edge: quantifying the structure of a fragmented forest landscape in England

Forest ecosystems have been widely fragmented by human land use, inducing significant microclimatic and biological changes at the forest edge. If we are to rigorously assess the ecological impacts of habitat fragmentation, there is a need to effectively quantify the amount of edge habitat within a landscape, and to allow this to be modelled for individual species and processes. Edge effect may extend only a few metres or as far as several kilometres, depending on the species or process in question. Therefore, rather than attempting to quantify the amount of edge habitat by using a fixed, case-specific distance to distinguish between edge and core, the area of habitat within continuously-varying distances from the forest edge is of greater utility. We quantified the degree of fragmentation of forests in England, where forests cover 10 % of the land area. We calculated the distance from within the forest patches to the nearest edge (forest vs. non-forest) and other landscape indices, such as mean patch size, edge density and distance to the nearest neighbour. Of the total forest area, 37 % was within 30 m and 74 % within 100 m of the nearest edge. This highlights that, in fragmented landscapes, the habitats close to the edge form a considerable proportion of the total habitat area. We then show how these edge estimates can be combined with ecological response functions, to allow us to generate biologically meaningful estimates of the impacts of fragmentation at a landscape scale.     

Spatial and temporal variability of fragmentation effects in a long term,eucalypt forest fragmentation experiment

Context

Although forest fragmentation is generally thought to impact tree growth and mortality negatively, recent work suggests some forests are resilient. Experimental forests provide an opportunity to examine the timing and extent of forest tree resilience to disturbance from fragmentation.

Objectives

We used the Wog Wog Habitat Fragmentation Experiment in southeastern Australia to test Eucalyptus growth and survivorship responses to forest fragmentation over a 26 year period.

Methods

We measured 2418 tree diameters and used spline-regression techniques to examine non-monotonic fragmentation effect over two time periods.

Results

Over the first 4 years after fragmentation, individual eucalypt tree growth was greater than in continuous forest for large trees and mortality rates were higher only within 10 m of edges. Over the following 22 years only the effects on tree growth remained and on average all fragments rebounded so that their biomass and mortality rates were equivalent to continuous forest. Importantly non-monotonic patterns were observed in growth and mortality with respect to area and distance from edge in both study periods, demonstrating that fragmentation impacts on trees can be strong in localized areas (greatest in 3 ha fragments and 0–30 m edges) and over short time periods.

Conclusions

Dry-sclerophyll eucalypt forests join the set of forest types that display resilient growth dynamics post fragmentation. Moreover, persistent non-monotonic impacts on tree growth with respect to tree size, fragment area, and fragment distance from edge, highlighting landscape fragmentation as a driver of habitat heterogeneity within remnant forest fragments.

     

Population Dynamics of Songbirds in the Boreal Mixedwood Forests of Alberta,Canada: Estimating Minimum and Maximum Extents of Spatial Population Synchrony

Ecological phenomena vary over space and time and interpretation of these processes also varies depending on the measurement scale. As the spatial scale of observation increases and decreases, changes in population abundance will likely exhibit alternating patterns of asynchrony and synchrony. While the study of how and why population dynamics change with spatial scale of measurement is intrinsically interesting, most population ecologists seek to study mechanisms of population change on a discrete study area. Our study develops methods that population ecologists can use to determine spatially appropriate sampling designs, and demonstrates how such spatial scales can be determined for 25 species of songbirds using long-term data from the boreal mixedwood forest of Alberta, Canada. To determine minimum scales of synchrony in population dynamics, we calculated the average correlation of changes in population abundance over time across different numbers of fixed-radius point-count samples. We then used a randomization test to remove the effect of number of replicates from the determination of appropriate spatial scale. The maximum extent of synchrony was estimated as the distance where population dynamics were no longer correlated. Estimates of the minimum scale of synchrony differed between species, ranging from 3.1 to 18.6 ha. The maximum scale of synchrony was estimated to be greater than or equal to 8 km for 14 of the 25 species examined, and to be greater than or equal to 70 km for Tennessee Warbler (Vermivora peregrina). Maximum spatial extents were significantly correlated with body mass and territory size.     

Spatial and Seasonal Patterns of Cattle Habitat use in a Mountain Wooded Pasture

Management-oriented models of cattle habitat use often treat grazing pressure as a single variable summarizing all cattle activities. This paper addresses the following questions: How does the spatial pattern of cattle effects vary between cattle activities in a highly heterogeneous landscape? Do these patterns change over the grazing season as forage availability decreases? What are the respective roles of natural and management-introduced structures? We estimated the intensity of herbage removal, dung deposition and trampling after each of three grazing periods on a grid of 25 m ×25 m cells covering an entire paddock in the Swiss Jura Mountains. We found no significant positive correlations between cattle effects. Spatial patterns weakened through the season for grazing and trampling, whereas dunging patterns changed little between grazing periods. Redundancy analysis showed that different cattle effects were correlated with different environmental variables and that the importance of management-introduced variables was highest for herbage removal. Autocorrelograms and partial redundancy analyses using principal coordinates of neighbour matrices suggested that dunging patterns were more coarse-grained than the others. Systematic differences in the spatial and seasonal patterns of cattle effects may result in complex interactions with vegetation involving feedback effects through nutrient shift, with strong implications for ecosystem management. In heterogeneous environments, such as pasture-woodland landscapes, spatially explicit models of vegetation dynamics need to model cattle effects separately.     

Spatial weighting of land use and temporal weighting of antecedent discharge improves prediction of stream condition

Land management to protect streams requires knowing which parts of the landscape most strongly influence stream condition. Understanding how flow through landscapes and along streams affects such land-use impacts requires knowing the period of antecedent discharge that most strongly influences condition. Both considerations require determination of optimal weighting schemes for predictors of stream condition. We calculated forest cover weighted by flow-path distance to 572 urban, peri-urban, and rural sites—in the Melbourne, Australia, region—sampled for macroinvertebrates, and antecedent discharge weighted by time preceding each of 1,723 samples. Using mixed linear models that accounted for spatial dependence, we aimed to determine the weighting curve shape and length that best predicted macroinvertebrate assemblage composition. The best model was a function of mean annual discharge, weighted forest cover, weighted imperviousness, weighted antecedent discharge, and their interactions. Optimal weightings were exponential—half-decay distance 35 m overland (plausible range 26–50 m), and 1.0 km in-stream (0.75–1.3 km) for forest cover—, and linear over ≥4 year for antecedent discharge. Model plausibility was more affected by weighting distance than the shape of the weighting function. Regardless of weighting curve shape, riparian forest effects on macroinvertebrate assemblages are strongest within 10¹–10² m from the stream, and 10³ m upstream. Although exponential weightings are only marginally more plausible, they are the most realistic representation of physical processes. While our conclusions should not be interpreted as recommendations for buffer widths, they provide valuable insight into the scales of influence in the region and could be used to inform management decisions.     

Predictors of bark beetle activity and scale-dependent spatial heterogeneity change during the course of an outbreak in a subalpine forest

Climate conditions and forest structure interact to determine the extent and severity of bark beetle outbreaks, yet the relative importance of each may vary though the course of an outbreak. In 2008, we conducted field surveys and reconstructed forest conditions at multiple stages within a recent mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. At each stage in the outbreak, we examined changes in (1) lodgepole pine mortality and surviving stand structure, (2) the influence of topographic versus stand structure variables on mortality rates, and (3) stand complexity and landscape heterogeneity. Lodgepole pine mortality reduced basal area by 71 %, but only 47 % of stems were killed. Relative to pre-outbreak stands, surviving stands had lower mean dbh (11.0 vs. 17.4 cm), lower basal area (8.5 vs. 29.3 m² ha^?1), lower density (915 vs. 1,393 stems ha^?1), and higher proportions of non-host species (23.1 vs. 10.6 % m² ha^?1). Factors predicting mortality rates changed through the course of the outbreak. Tree mortality during the early stage of the outbreak was associated with warm, dry sites and abundant large trees. During the middle and late stages, mortality was associated with stand structure alone. Stand complexity increased, as defined by stand-scale variability in density, basal area, and the proportion of susceptible trees. Landscape heterogeneity decreased according to semi-variograms of tree diameter and basal area. Increased stand complexity may inhibit future MPB population development, but decreased landscape heterogeneity may facilitate outbreak spread across the landscape if a future outbreak were to irrupt.     

Trees outside forests in agricultural landscapes: spatial distribution and impact on habitat connectivity for forest organisms

Context

Various species of forest trees are commonly used for ornamental purposes and are therefore frequently found in nonforest ecosystems. They constitute an important component of the so-called trees outside forests (TOF). Not much is known, however, about the drivers of TOF spatial distribution either in urbanized or in agricultural landscapes since they are generally absent from forest inventories.

Objective

The present study focused on the spatial distribution of TOF across agricultural landscapes and their potential role in the dispersal of a forest pest insect, the pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pityocampa (PPM).

Methods

All the TOF belonging to the genera Pinus, Cedrus and Pseudotsuga were considered as potential hosts and inventoried within a 22 × 22 km study window. We fitted a nonstationary Poisson process to the empirical data and used the distance to the nearest building as a covariate.

Results

Both empirical and simulated data indicated that TOF associated to human artifacts/urbanized areas constituted the main source of landscape connectivity for the PPM in the open fields under study. Because they do not account for TOF, forest inventories dramatically underestimate landscape connectivity and provide an erroneous picture of the PPM habitat distribution.

Conclusions

We conclude that TOF, especially the ornamental component, must be taken into account when it comes to understanding forest insect landscape dynamics or genetics. The omnipresence of TOF also suggests a potentially huge role in pest dispersal and invasive species expansion.