病情指数比较误差的初步探讨

病情指数是表示作物发病程度的一种相对统计数,常用来作为不同条件下作物发病程度差异的比较指标。因此,研究这种指标的实用效果和误差情况,对提高植病研究结果的正确性和精确度有重要的意义。 有人认为:病情分级标准的合理性会影响病情指数的实用效果;并认为理论上要求发病程度与损失情况需要有高度正相关关系,否则会产生较大的误差。     

杀菌剂田间试验防病效果的4种常用计算公式比较分析

田间药效试验是农药登记试验管理中重要的组成部分，其中病害防治效果计算公式的适用性、有效性和精确性，对科学合理评价杀菌剂对病害的田间防治效果至关重要。目前常用的几种计算公式在适用性和计算误差上存在差异，而对于常用公式之间的比较至今尚未见系统的研究报道。本研究通过理论推导、数值模拟等方式比较验证了多个变量不同组合条件下4种常用计算公式的防治效果变化趋势，准确评价了常用计算公式的应用范围和计算结果的稳定性，并对处理区药后观测的病情指数进行了修正。结果表明:在固定处理区和对照区药后病情指数条件下，4种常用公式计算结果对处理区、对照区初始病情指数差异的敏感程度表现不同；当处理区施药前后病情指数变化极小时，采用公式(1)、(3)和杨信东公式(4)计算防治效果会出现计算结果不依赖对照区病情指数的情况，且当处理区药后病情指数低于药前病情指数时，计算结果会大于100%，出现防效值溢出现象，而Henderson-Tilton公式[公式(2)]是以施药前后病情指数变化率来计算防治效果，可以有效规避结果偏差或防效值溢出；而当对照区初始病情指数较大，且病情发生速率快时，建议采用杨信东公式(4)计算防治效果，可以减少处理区和对照区因药后病情指数差异而带来的误差。综合考虑田间施药前后的各种影响因素，在确保病害发生初期施药条件下公式(2)更具适用性和准确性。     

对水稻白叶枯病、纹枯病分级标准的商榷

病情指数是病害发生普遍程度与严重程度的综合体现,其数值越大,表示病害越严重。但是,要计算病情指数必须对病害进行分级,在水稻白叶枯病、纹枯病的调查过程中,当出现白叶枯病病斑面积界于叶面积的1/2—3/5之间,纹枯病顶叶以下各叶鞘或叶片发病时,参照《农作物主要病虫测报办法》分级标准就无法划定级别,笔者认为这两种     

基于地面高光谱数据的油茶炭疽病病情指数反演

使用FieldSpec HandHeldTM地物光谱仪采集不同发病程度的油茶冠层光谱数据,并实地调查油茶炭疽病病情指数,将光谱数据进行一阶微分与滑动平均滤波相结合的预处理,提取与病情指数相关性较高的敏感波段,并采用主成分分析法(principal component analysis,PCA)对敏感波段的光谱数据进行降维,分别以敏感波段和PCA降维处理后的敏感波段作为输入变量建立了病情指数的BP神经网络反演模型.两种建模方法建立的BP神经网络模型计算出的预测值与观测值之间的决定系数(R2)均达99％以上.精度检验证明,以PCA降维所得到的前10个主成分作为输入变量建立的10-7-1三层BP神经网络模型预测精度更高,模型计算出的预测值与观测值之间的决定系数(R2)和均方根误差(RMSE)分别为0.998 6和0.814 8.该研究表明,利用地面高光谱数据结合主成分分析和BP神经网络算法反演油茶炭疽病病情指数是一种有效的方法.     

农作物病害流行程度划分标准的方法探讨

农作物病害流行程度划分标准是确定病害流行轻重的主要依据.在研究分析当前病害流行程度划分标准存在问题的基础上,提出病害流行程度划分标准应该由多项指标改为一项指标,分别以相应行政区域的加权病情指数或虫口密度来表示,并给出了其测算方法.同时提出行政区域范围的大小不同,病害流行程度分级标准的指标不同.行政区域小,分级指标值大;行政区域大,分级指标值小.从而解决了目前实际工作中病害流行程度分级标准不规范的问题.     

稻粒黑粉病分级标准研究

稻粒黑粉病是杂交稻制种田的主要病害。病穗率一般达60％以上,病粒率10％左右。以往对该病的发病程度常用病穗率或病粒率表示,而对该病的分级,则采用稻曲病的分级标准。病情指数是衡量病害发生严重程度的重要指标,病情指数是依据分级标准及调查株数计算,故有必要对此病制定统一的分级标准,以便相互比较。     

水稻纹枯病产量损失及经济阈值的探讨

笔者从1982年开始,对杂交稻汕优二号和常规稻泸科三号,进行了纹枯病病情与产量损失关系的研究,现将结果简述如下: 方法: 1.病情观察:从移栽返青后开始每天普查发现中心病株后,定点每5天观察一次直至蜡熟期病情稳定时为止,调查记载病丛率、病株率、并按国际分级标准(后同)分级计算严重度和病情指数。 2.小区控制试验:采取接不同量纹枯病菌体诱发和不接菌并施药控制发病,造成不     

基于地面高光谱遥感的降香黄檀黑痣病病情指数反演

利用美国Spectra Vista Corporation(以下均用简称SVC)HR-1024i非成像高光谱仪采集不同病情程度的降香黄檀冠层光谱数据,并结合地面同步调查获得的降香黄檀黑痣病病情指数数据,对光谱数据进行重叠校正(scan matching/overlap correction)和白光板反射率校正(white plate reflectance correction)。采用主成分分析法(PCA法)对与降香黄檀黑痣病病情指数相关性较高的敏感波段进行降维。利用53个训练集,将敏感波段和PCA法处理后的敏感波段分别作为输入变量,训练降香黄檀黑痣病的BP神经网络。两种输入变量建立的神经网络计算出的预测值与实际值之间的决定系数(R2)均达到99%。利用27个验证集做进一步精度检验,结果表明,通过这两种输入变量训练的BP神经网络,得到的预测值与实际值之间的决定系数(R2)分别为0.951 9和0.706 0,均方根误差(RMSE)分别为5.998 0和12.919 3。直接以敏感波段作为变量输入和PCA法处理后的敏感波段作为变量输入训练BP神经网络是一种有效的方法,其中,直接以敏感波段作为变量输入精度更高。     

新疆焉耆盆地ET_0计算方法的适用性评价

以新疆焉耆盆地为例,以PM模型计算值为标准,评价了H-S、P-T与Mc Cloud模型在研究区的适用性。结果表明:太阳总辐射与ET0日值之间呈现极强的相关性(r=0.937)与偏相关性(r=0.962),说明太阳辐射能量是影响ET0的主要因素;在ET0日值计算中,H-S模型计算结果显著大于PM模型,P-T模型与Mc Cloud模型计算值显著小于PM模型,其中H-S模型计算精度最高,均方根误差为0.836 mm,平均偏差为0.638 mm;通过对H-S模型、P-T模型与Mc Cloud模型进行修正,不同模型的计算精度均有所提高,修正后P-T模型的计算精度最高(均方根误差RMSE为0.613 mm,纳什效率指数E为0.6821),且3种模型修正后ET0日值与PM模型计算值均无显著差异。     

木薯不同品种间炭疽病的发生及分级标准研究

对供试11个木薯品种的炭疽病田间的病叶率、病情指数和病株率等进行对比,探讨了木薯病叶严重度分级和基于病情指数的木薯炭疽病发生程度分级标准。结果表明,柬食0号与其他10个供试品种的平均病叶率、平均病情指数在0.05水平上差异显著。     

Performance of different drought indices for agriculture drought in the North China Plain

The Palmer drought severity index(PDSI), standardized precipitation index(SPI), and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) are used worldwide for drought assessment and monitoring. However, substantial differences exist in the performance for agricultural drought among these indices and among regions. Here, we performed statistical assessments to compare the strengths of different drought indices for agricultural drought in the North China Plain. Small differences were detected in the comparative performances of SPI and SPEI that were smaller at the long-term scale than those at the short-term scale. The correlation between SPI/SPEI and PDSI considerably increased from 1-to 12-month lags, and a slight decreasing trend was exhibited during 12-and 24-month lags, indicating a 12-month scale in the PDSI, whereas the SPI was strongly correlated with the SPEI at 1-to 24-month lags. Interestingly, the correlation between the trend of temperature and the mean absolute error and its correlation coefficient both suggested stronger relationships between SPI and the SPEI in areas of rapid climate warming. In addition, the yield–drought correlations tended to be higher for the SPI and SPEI than that for the PDSI at the station scale, whereas small differences were detected between the SPI and SPEI in the performance on agricultural systems. However, large differences in the influence of drought conditions on the yields of winter wheat and summer maize were evident among various indices during the crop-growing season. Our findings suggested that multi-indices in drought monitoring are needed in order to acquire robust conclusions.     

应用real-time PCR评价三种杀菌剂对小麦条锈病的防治效果

为更加精确有效地评估杀菌剂对小麦条锈病的防效,本研究利用real-time PCR检测潜育阶段的分子病情指数(molecular disease index,M DI)并结合田间病情分析,对三种杀菌剂的防效进行评价。春季返青后在品种铭贤169和京0045试验小区的诱发中心接种小麦条锈菌夏孢子,待充分发病后将其铲除。设置播种前2%立克秀拌种,接种后21和28 d分别喷施25%阿米西达和30%苯甲-丙环唑1 500倍液三种处理。发病后调查不同处理的普遍率和严重度,计算病情指数和AUDPC。结果表明,阿米西达和苯甲-丙环唑对小麦条锈病具有良好的防效且能够明显抑制发病中心的扩展,而经立克秀拌种对该病害的防治效果和发病中心扩展的抑制作用均不理想。对京0045于发病中心接种后24和33 d采样,经双重real-time PCR定量检测,计算MDI。结果显示潜育检测获得的M DI与AUDPC之间均具有极显著的相关性;阿米西达和苯甲-丙环唑对潜育期小麦条锈菌的扩展具有明显的持续抑制作用,而立克秀拌种仅对小麦条锈菌潜伏初期的扩展表现出一定的抑制作用。     

利用移动式孢子捕捉器捕获的孢子量估计小麦白粉病田间病情

 Experiments were conducted by using RAM Air Sampler for Use with Moving Vehicle to estimate field disease severity of wheat powdery mildew during 2002-2005. Results showed that there was significant correlation between field disease index and trapped spore number. Therefore, two models relating field disease index to spore number trapped were constructed using data from 2002 and 2005, or 2003 and 2004, respectively. These two models can be used to estimate field disease indexes of wheat powdery mildew in different years when disease severity is different.     

Reliability and accuracy of visual estimation of phomopsis leaf blight of strawberry

ABSTRACT Six different individuals (raters) assessed the severity of Phomopsis leaf blight on strawberry leaflets in five experimental repetitions over 2 years by making a direct visual estimation of the percentage of diseased area of each leaflet or by using the Horsfall-Barratt (H-B) disease scale. Intra-rater and inter-rater reliability and accuracy were determined, and then the relationship between visually estimated severity values and actual severity values was evaluated. Agreement in estimated disease severity values between assessment times by the same raters (i.e., intra-rater reliability), and agreement in disease severity values among raters at a single assessment time (i.e., inter-rater reliability), were both high, with most correlation coefficients being greater than 0.85. The intra-class correlation for overall agreement among raters ranged from 0.80 to 0.96 for the five repetitions. Based on the concordance coefficient calculated for each rater in each repetition, agreement between estimated and actual severity (i.e., accuracy) was somewhat lower than reliability. The relationship between estimated and actual severity was linear, and there was a slight trend to overestimate disease severity. The H-B scale was not more reliable or accurate than direct estimation of severity, and the linear relationship between estimated and actual severity did not support the principles underling the H-B scale. Both size of leaflets and number of lesions per leaflet slightly affected the error in estimate of disease severity.     

麦白粉病成株期病情分级方法及其对产量影响的研究

 提出了按单蘖上、中、下叶片病情严重度综合评定的0~5级分级方法。经对该病的系统观察及不同生育期病情的相关分析,证明以扬花期作为全程病情代表值调查的关键期是合适的.     

Selection of pathometric variables to assess resistance and infectivity in the passion fruit woodiness pathosystem

The objective of this work was to compare the efficiency of four pathometric variables, i.e., grading scale, infection intensity index, global leaf disease index, and global incidence and severity index, in evaluations of the passion fruit/Cowpea aphid-borne mosaic virus (CABMV) pathosystem. In ??yellow?? passion fruit plants, mechanically inoculated with CABMV isolates, the degree of association between leaf symptoms and the total fruit yield was determined, as well as the relative infectivity between viral isolates. Only infection intensity index and the global incidence and severity index presented significant regressions with yield (p?=?0.007 and 0.006, respectively). These two pathometric variables could also distinguish groups of viral isolates inducing different severity levels (0.001 and 0.002, respectively). The results indicate that infection intensity index and global incidence and severity index are equally efficient in early identification of passion fruit populations with a higher resistance/susceptibility level to CABMV, and can be helpful in identifying more severe CABMV isolates, both useful aids in breeding programs.     

小麦白粉菌小种-品种相对寄生适合度测定方法的研究

 在田间设置方块圃和穴植圃,进行小麦白粉菌寄生适合度测定方法的研究。在方块圃测定单小种和混小种的流行速率;在穴植圃测定单小种和混小种的多项抗性指标,并计算了综合病指。通过相关分析表明,用流行速率、综合病指和抗性组分中的普遍率、严重度、产孢量推算的寄生适合度之间相关极显著,均可作为估计相对寄生适合度的代表性指标。     

白粉菌侵染后田间小麦叶绿素含量与冠层光谱反射率的关系

 本文对白粉菌侵染后田间小麦叶片叶绿素含量与光谱反射率的关系进行了研究。用不同浓度的药液控制田间病害的发生梯度,于灌浆期对不同严重度小麦冠层的光谱反射率进行了测量,同时测定小麦叶绿素含量并调查病情指数,分析叶绿素含量与病情指数、冠层光谱反射率的关系。结果表明,药剂对叶绿素含量无显著影响;受白粉病危害后,小麦叶片叶绿素含量明显降低,抗性不同的品种之间下降速度存在差异,与病情指数之间也有极显著的相关性。绿光波段与叶绿素含量之间的相关性达到了显著水平;基于多波段建立的模型要优于单波段,可以利用绿光、红光波段的反射率估计叶绿素含量。红边参数与叶绿素含量之间也有较好的相关性,其中以红边面积的相关系数最大。     

结合冠层光谱和叶片生理观测的小麦条锈病监测模型研究

通过开展小麦条锈病接种试验,在多个关键生育期获取被动式的冠层光谱和主动式的叶片生理观测并开展病情调查。在此基础上,结合优选的光谱特征和生理特征采用偏最小二乘回归方法(PLSR)构建病情严重度反演模型,得到不同生育期精度表现最优的特征组合。结果显示,基于光谱观测的优选光谱特征和基于叶片生理观测的Flav(类黄酮相对含量)、Chl(叶绿素含量)的不同组合在小麦挑旗期、灌浆早期和灌浆期分别具有较佳表现,模型精度达到r~2=0.90,RMSE=0.026。相比单纯采用光谱特征,综合冠层光谱和叶片生理观测能够使模型精度提高21%,表明两种数据的结合有利于提高病情严重度估测精度。上述研究可为小麦病害监测仪器的开发提供新的模式和思路。